914 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models
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Staphylococcus aureus is recognized as one of the major human pathogens and is by far one of the most common nosocomial organisms. The genetic basis for the emergence of highly epidemic strains remains mysterious. Studying the microevolution of the different clones of S. aureus is essential for identifying the forces driving pathogen emergence and spread. The aim of the present study was to determine the genetic changes characterizing a lineage belonging to the South German clone (ST228) that spread over ten years in a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. For this reason, we compared the whole genome of eight isolates recovered between 2001 and 2008 at the Lausanne hospital. The genetic comparison of these isolates revealed that their genomes are extremely closely related. Yet, a few more important genetic changes, such as the replacement of a plasmid, the loss of large fragments of DNA, or the insertion of transposases, were observed. These transfers of mobile genetic elements shaped the evolution of the ST228 lineage that spread within the Lausanne hospital. Nevertheless, although the strains analyzed differed in their dynamics, we have not been able to link a particular genetic element with spreading success. Finally, the present study showed that new sequencing technologies improve considerably the quality and quantity of information obtained for a single strain; but this information is still difficult to interpret and important investments are required for the technology to become accessible for routine investigations.
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Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been widely used for many years in various applications, such as environmental and water samples, food and fragrance analysis, or biological fluids. The aim of this study was to suggest the SPME method as an alternative to conventional techniques used in the evaluation of worker exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). Polymethylsiloxane-carboxen (PDMS/CAR) showed as the most effective stationary phase material for sorbing BTEX among other materials (polyacrylate, PDMS, PDMS/divinylbenzene, Carbowax/divinylbenzene). Various experimental conditions were studied to apply SPME to BTEX quantitation in field situations. The uptake rate of the selected fiber (75 microm PDMS/CAR) was determined for each analyte at various concentrations, relative humidities, and airflow velocities from static (calm air) to dynamic (> 200 cm/s) conditions. The SPME method also was compared with the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health method 1501. Unlike the latter, the SPME approach fulfills the new requirement for the threshold limit value-short term exposure limit (TLV-STEL) of 2.5 ppm for benzene (8 mg/m(3))
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A large number of parameters have been identified as predictors of early outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. In the present work we analyzed a wide range of demographic, metabolic, physiological, clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging parameters in a large population of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke with the aim of identifying independent predictors of the early clinical course. We used prospectively collected data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne. All consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to our stroke unit and/or intensive care unit between 1 January 2003 and 12 December 2008 within 24 h after last-well time were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant associations with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission and 24 h later. We also sought any interactions between the identified predictors. Of the 1,730 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who were included in the analysis, 260 (15.0%) were thrombolyzed (mostly intravenously) within the recommended time window. In multivariate analysis, the NIHSS score at 24 h after admission was associated with the NIHSS score at admission (β = 1, p < 0.001), initial glucose level (β = 0.05, p < 0.002) and thrombolytic intervention (β = -2.91, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between thrombolysis and the NIHSS score at admission (p < 0.001), indicating that the short-term effect of thrombolysis decreases with increasing initial stroke severity. Thrombolytic treatment, lower initial glucose level and lower initial stroke severity predict a favorable early clinical course. The short-term effect of thrombolysis appears mainly in minor and moderate strokes, and decreases with increasing initial stroke severity.
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The present study investigates the short- and long-term outcomes of a computer-assisted cognitive remediation (CACR) program in adolescents with psychosis or at high risk. 32 adolescents participated in a blinded 8-week randomized controlled trial of CACR treatment compared to computer games (CG). Clinical and neuropsychological evaluations were undertaken at baseline, at the end of the program and at 6-month. At the end of the program (n = 28), results indicated that visuospatial abilities (Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; P = .005) improved signifi cantly more in the CACR group compared to the CG group. Furthermore, other cognitive functions (RBANS), psychotic symptoms (Positive and Negative Symptom Scale) and psychosocial functioning (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) improved signifi cantly, but at similar rates, in the two groups. At long term (n = 22), cognitive abilities did not demonstrated any amelioration in the control group while, in the CACR group, signifi cant long-term improvements in inhibition (Stroop; P = .040) and reasoning (Block Design Test; P = .005) were observed. In addition, symptom severity (Clinical Global Improvement) decreased signifi cantly in the control group (P = .046) and marginally in the CACR group (P = .088). To sum up, CACR can be successfully administered in this population. CACR proved to be effective over and above CG for the most intensively trained cognitive ability. Finally, on the long-term, enhanced reasoning and inhibition abilities, which are necessary to execute higher-order goals or to adapt behavior to the ever-changing environment, were observed in adolescents benefi ting from a CACR.
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Objective:We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention.Design:In all, 16 obese men and women (41±9 years; body mass index (BMI) 39±6 kg m(-2)) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week very-low-energy diet(565-650 kcal per day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74%-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, and resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants 9.45 kcal per g FM and 1.13 kcal per g FFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the EDef using the '7700 kcal kg(-1) rule'.Results:Changes in weight (-18.6±5.0 kg), FM (-15.5±4.3 kg) and FFM (-3.1±1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39% to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01), and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of the predicted values.Conclusion:Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. Although lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic downregulation should not be discounted.
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Trypanosoma cruzi infection induces progressive cardiac inflammation that leads to fibrosis and modifications in the heart architecture and functionality. Statins, such as 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG CoA) reductase inhibitors, have been studied due to their pleiotropic roles in modulating the inflammatory response. Our goal was to evaluate the effects of simvastatin on the cardiac inflammatory process using a cardiotropic strain of T. cruzi in a murine model of Chagas cardiomyopathy. C57BL/6 mice were infected with 500 trypomastigotes of the Colombian strain of T. cruzi and treated with an oral dose of simvastatin (20 mg/Kg/day) for one month and inflammatory and morphometric parameters were subsequently evaluated in the serum and in the heart, respectively. Simvastatin reduced the total cholesterol and inflammatory mediators (interferon-gamma, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, CCL2 and CCL5) in the serum and in the heart tissue at 30 days post-infection. Additionally, a proportional reduction in heart weight and inflammatory infiltration was observed. Simvastatin also reduced epimastigote proliferation in a dose-dependent manner in vitro and was able to reduce blood trypomastigotes and heart amastigote nests during the acute phase of Chagas disease in vivo. Based on these data, we conclude that simvastatin exerts a modulatory effect on the inflammatory mediators that are elicited by the Colombian strain of T. cruzi and ameliorates the heart damage that is observed in a murine model of Chagas disease.
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OBJECTIVE: Absent or reverse end-diastolic flow (Doppler II/III) in umbilical artery is correlated with poor perinatal outcome, particularly in intrauterine growth restricted (IUGR) fetuses. The optimal timing of delivery is still controversial. We studied the short- and long-term morbidity and mortality among these children associated with our defined management. STUDY DESIGN: Sixty-nine IUGR fetuses with umbilical Doppler II/III were divided into three groups; Group 1, severe early IUGR, no therapeutic intervention (n = 7); Group 2, fetuses with pathological biophysical profile, immediate delivery (n = 35); Group 3, fetuses for which expectant management had been decided (n = 27). RESULTS: In Group 1, stillbirth was observed after a mean delay of 6.3 days. Group 2 delivered at an average of 31.6 weeks and two died in the neonatal period (6%). In Group 3 after a mean delay of 8 days, average gestational age at delivery was 31.7 weeks; two intra uterine and four perinatal deaths were observed (22%). Long-term follow-up revealed no sequelae in 25/31 (81%) and 15/18 (83%), and major handicap occurred in 1 (3%) and 2 patients (11%), respectively, for Groups 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Fetal mortality was observed in 22% of this high risk group. After a mean period of follow-up of 5 years, 82% of infants showed no sequelae. According to our management, IUGR associated with umbilical Doppler II or III does not show any benefit from an expectant management in term of long-term morbidity.
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Tribulus terrestris is a nutritional supplement highly debated regarding its physiological and actual effects on the organism. The main claimed effect is an increase of testosterone anabolic and androgenic action through the activation of endogenous testosterone production. Even if this biological pathway is not entirely proven, T. terrestris is regularly used by athletes. Recently, the analysis of two female urine samples by GC/C/IRMS (gas chromatography/combustion/isotope-ratio-mass-spectrometry) conclusively revealed the administration of exogenous testosterone or its precursors, even if the testosterone glucuronide/epitestosterone glucuronide (T/E) ratio and steroid marker concentrations were below the cut-off values defined by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA). To argue against this adverse analytical finding, the athletes recognized having used T. terrestris in their diet. In order to test this hypothesis, two female volunteers ingested 500 mg of T. terrestris, three times a day and for two consecutive days. All spot urines were collected during 48 h after the first intake. The (13)C/(12)C ratio of ketosteroids was determined by GC/C/IRMS, the T/E ratio and DHEA concentrations were measured by GC/MS and LH concentrations by radioimmunoassay. None of these parameters revealed a significant variation or increased above the WADA cut-off limits. Hence, the short-term treatment with T. terrestris showed no impact on the endogenous testosterone metabolism of the two subjects.
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Synaptic plasticity involves a complex molecular machinery with various protein interactions but it is not yet clear how its components give rise to the different aspects of synaptic plasticity. Here we ask whether it is possible to mathematically model synaptic plasticity by making use of known substances only. We present a model of a multistable biochemical reaction system and use it to simulate the plasticity of synaptic transmission in long-term potentiation (LTP) or long-term depression (LTD) after repeated excitation of the synapse. According to our model, we can distinguish between two phases: first, a "viscosity" phase after the first excitation, the effects of which like the activation of NMDA receptors and CaMKII fade out in the absence of further excitations. Second, a "plasticity" phase actuated by an identical subsequent excitation that follows after a short time interval and causes the temporarily altered concentrations of AMPA subunits in the postsynaptic membrane to be stabilized. We show that positive feedback is the crucial element in the core chemical reaction, i.e. the activation of the short-tail AMPA subunit by NEM-sensitive factor, which allows generating multiple stable equilibria. Three stable equilibria are related to LTP, LTD and a third unfixed state called ACTIVE. Our mathematical approach shows that modeling synaptic multistability is possible by making use of known substances like NMDA and AMPA receptors, NEM-sensitive factor, glutamate, CaMKII and brain-derived neurotrophic factor. Furthermore, we could show that the heteromeric combination of short- and long-tail AMPA receptor subunits fulfills the function of a memory tag.
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A new method of measuring joint angle using a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes is presented. The method proposes a minimal sensor configuration with one sensor module mounted on each segment. The model is based on estimating the acceleration of the joint center of rotation by placing a pair of virtual sensors on the adjacent segments at the center of rotation. In the proposed technique, joint angles are found without the need for integration, so absolute angles can be obtained which are free from any source of drift. The model considers anatomical aspects and is personalized for each subject prior to each measurement. The method was validated by measuring knee flexion-extension angles of eight subjects, walking at three different speeds, and comparing the results with a reference motion measurement system. The results are very close to those of the reference system presenting very small errors (rms = 1.3, mean = 0.2, SD = 1.1 deg) and excellent correlation coefficients (0.997). The algorithm is able to provide joint angles in real-time, and ready for use in gait analysis. Technically, the system is portable, easily mountable, and can be used for long term monitoring without hindrance to natural activities.
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This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.
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Analiza los datos colectados de la clorofila frente al Peru cerca de 9°S. Determinandose la profundidad a la que se enuentran y la concentración de oxigeno durante el dia y la noche.
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Genetic diversity might increase the performance of social groups by improving task efficiency or disease resistance, but direct experimental tests of these hypotheses are rare. We manipulated the level of genetic diversity in colonies of the Argentine ant Linepithema humile, and then recorded the short-term task efficiency of these experimental colonies. The efficiency of low and high genetic diversity colonies did not differ significantly for any of the following tasks: exploring a new territory, foraging, moving to a new nest site, or removing corpses. The tests were powerful enough to detect large effects, but may have failed to detect small differences. Indeed, observed effect sizes were generally small, except for the time to create a trail during nest emigration. In addition, genetic diversity had no statistically significant impact on the number of workers, males and females produced by the colony, but these tests had low power. Higher genetic diversity also did not result in lower variance in task efficiency and productivity. In contrast to genetic diversity, colony size was positively correlated with the efficiency at performing most tasks and with colony productivity. Altogether, these results suggest that genetic diversity does not strongly improve short-term task efficiency in L. humile, but that worker number is a key factor determining the success of this invasive species.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine HIV-1 RNA in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of successfully treated patients and to evaluate if combination antiretroviral treatments with higher central nervous system penetration-effectiveness (CPE) achieve better CSF viral suppression. METHODS: Viral loads (VLs) and drug concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir, and efavirenz were measured in plasma and CSF. The CPE was calculated using 2 different methods. RESULTS: The authors analyzed 87 CSF samples of 60 patients. In 4 CSF samples, HIV-1 RNA was detectable with 43-82 copies per milliliter. Median CPE in patients with detectable CSF VL was significantly lower compared with individuals with undetectable VL: CPE of 1.0 (range, 1.0-1.5) versus 2.3 (range, 1.0-3.5) using the method of 2008 (P = 0.011) and CPE of 6 (range, 6-8) versus 8 (range, 5-12) using the method of 2010 (P = 0.022). The extrapolated CSF trough levels for atazanavir (n = 12) were clearly above the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) in only 25% of samples; both patients on atazanavir/ritonavir with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA had trough levels in the range of the presumed IC50. The extrapolated CSF trough level for lopinavir (n = 42) and efavirenz (n = 18) were above the IC50 in 98% and 78%, respectively, of samples, including the patients with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that treatment regimens with high intracerebral efficacy reflected by a high CPE score are essential to achieve CSF HIV-1 RNA suppression. The CPE score including all drug components was a better predictor for treatment failure in the CSF than the sole concentrations of protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in plasma or CSF.
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An autoregulation-oriented strategy has been proposed to guide neurocritical therapy toward the optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPOPT). The influence of ventilation changes is, however, unclear. We sought to find out whether short-term moderate hypocapnia (HC) shifts the CPPOPT or affects its detection. Thirty patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), who required sedation and mechanical ventilation, were studied during 20 min of normocapnia (5.1±0.4 kPa) and 30 min of moderate HC (4.4±3.0 kPa). Monitoring included bilateral transcranial Doppler of the middle cerebral arteries (MCA), invasive arterial blood pressure (ABP), and intracranial pressure (ICP). Mx -autoregulatory index provided a measure for the CPP responsiveness of MCA flow velocity. CPPOPT was assessed as the CPP at which autoregulation (Mx) was working with the maximal efficiency. During normocapnia, CPPOPT (left: 80.65±6.18; right: 79.11±5.84 mm Hg) was detectable in 12 of 30 patients. Moderate HC did not shift this CPPOPT but enabled its detection in another 17 patients (CPPOPT left: 83.94±14.82; right: 85.28±14.73 mm Hg). The detection of CPPOPT was achieved via significantly improved Mx-autoregulatory index and an increase of CPP mean. It appeared that short-term moderate HC augmented the detection of an optimum CPP, and may therefore usefully support CPP-guided therapy in patients with TBI.