A longitudinal cohort study evaluating the impact of a geriatrician-led residential care out-reach service on acute health care utilisation

Background: Over the last decade, high demand for acute health care services by long-term residents of residential care facilities (RCF) has stimulated interest in exploring alternative models of care. The Residential Care Intervention Program in the Elderly (RECIPE) service provides expert outreach services to RCFs residents, interventions include: comprehensive care planning, management of intercurrent illness and rapid access to acute care substitution services.Objective: To evaluate whether the RECIPE service decreased acute health care utilisation.Design: A retrospective cohort study using interrupted time series analysis to analyse change in acute healthcare utilisation before and after enrolment.Setting: A 300 bed metropolitan teaching hospital in Australia and 73 RCF within its catchment.Subjects: There were 1327 patients enrolled in the service with a median age 84 years, 61% were female. Methods: Data was collected prospectively on all enrolled patients from 2004 to 2011 and linked to the acute health service administrative dataset. Primary outcomes change in admission rates, length of stay and beddays per quarter.Results: In the two years prior to enrolment the mean number of acute care admissions per patient per year was 3.03 (SD 2.9) versus post 2.4 (SD 3.3), the service reducing admissions by 0.13 admissions per patient per quarter (p=0.046). Prior to enrolment the mean length of stay was 8.6 (SD 11.0) versus post 3.5 (SD 5.0), a reduction of 1.5 days per patient per quarter (p=0.003). Conclusions:This study suggests that an outreach service comprising a geriatrician-led multidisciplinary team can reduce acute hospital utilisation rates.

Study protocol: asking questions about alcohol in pregnancy (AQUA): a longitudinal cohort study of fetal effects of low to moderate alcohol exposure

Despite extensive research, a direct correlation between low to moderate prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) and Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders has been elusive. Conflicting results are attributed to a lack of accurate and detailed data on PAE and incomplete information on contributing factors. The public health effectiveness of policies recommending complete abstinence from alcohol during pregnancy is challenged by the high frequency of unplanned pregnancies, where many women consumed some alcohol prior to pregnancy recognition. There is a need for research evidence emphasizing timing and dosage of PAE and its effects on child development.

Changing from primary to secondary school highlights opportunities for school environment interventions aiming to increase physical activity and reduce sedentary behaviour: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is little empirical evidence of the impact of transition from primary to secondary school on obesity-related risk behaviour. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of a change of school system on physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour in pre-early adolescents. METHODS: Fifteen schools in Victoria, Australia were recruited at random from the bottom two strata of a five level socio-economic scale. In nine schools, students in year 6 primary school transitioned to a different school for year 7 secondary school, while in six schools (combined primary-secondary), students remained in the same school environment from year 6 to year 7. Time 1 (T1) measures were collected from students (N=245) in year 6 (age 11-13). Time 2 (T2) data were collected from 243 (99%) of the original student cohort when in year 7. PA and sedentary behaviour data were collected objectively (via ActiGraph accelerometer) and subjectively (via child self-report recall questionnaire). School environment data were collected via school staff survey. Change of behaviour analyses were conducted longitudinally i) for all students and ii) by change/no change of school. Mixed model regression analysis tested for behavioural interaction effects of changing/not changing school. RESULTS: Sixty-three percent (N=152) changed schools from T1 to T2. Across all students we observed declines in average daily moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (-4 min) and light PA (-23 min), and increases in average daily sedentary behaviour (16 min), weekday leisure screen time (17 min) and weekday homework screen time (25 min), all P<0.05. Compared to students who remained in the same school environment, students who changed school reported a greater reduction in PA intensity at recess and lunch, less likelihood to cycle to/from school, greater increase in weekday (41 mins) and weekend (45 mins) leisure screen time (P<0.05) and greater encouragement to participate in sport. School staff surveys identified that sport participation encouragement was greater in primary and combined primary-secondary than secondary schools (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Transitioning from primary to secondary school negatively impacts on children's PA and sedentary behaviour, and has further compounding effects on behaviour type by changing school environments.

The ProCaSP study: quality of life outcomes of prostate cancer patients after radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy in a cohort study urological oncology

Background: This study describes and compares health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of prostate cancer patients who received either radical prostatectomy (nerve-sparing, nsRP, or non-nerve-sparing, nnsRP) or radiotherapy (external RT, brachytherapy, or both combined) for treatment of localised prostate cancer. Methods: The prospective, multicenter cohort study included 529 patients. Questionnaires included the IIEF, QLQ-C30, and PORPUS-P. Data were collected before (baseline), three, six, twelve, and twenty-four months after treatment. Differences between groups' baseline characteristics were assessed; changes over time were analysed with generalised estimating equations (GEE). Missing values were treated with multiple imputation. Further, scores at baseline and end of follow-up were compared to German reference data. Results: The typical time trend was a decrease of average HRQOL three months after treatment followed by (partial) recovery. RP patients experienced considerable impairment in sexual functioning. The covariate-adjusted GEE identified a significant - but not clinically relevant - treatment effect for diarrhoea (b∈=∈7.0 for RT, p∈=∈0.006) and PORPUS-P (b∈=∈2.3 for nsRP, b∈=∈2.2 for RT, p∈=∈0.045) compared to the reference nnsRP. Most of the HRQOL scores were comparable to German norm values. Conclusions: Findings from previous research were reproduced in a specific setting of a patient cohort in the German health care system. According to the principle of evidence-based medicine, this strengthens the messages regarding treatment in prostate cancer and its impacts on patients' health-related quality of life. After adjustment for baseline HRQOL and other covariates, RT patients reported increased symptoms of diarrhoea, and nnsRP patients decreased prostate-specific HRQOL. RP patients experienced considerable impairment in sexual functioning. These differences should be taken into account by physicians when choosing the best therapy for a patient.

Short-term changes in quitting-related cognitions and behaviours after the implementation of plain packaging with larger health warnings : findings from a national cohort study with Australian adult smokers

ABSTRACT
Background: Plain packaging (PP) with larger graphic health warnings (GHWs) was implemented in Australia in late 2012. This study examined effects of these packaging changes on short-term changes in quitting-related cognitions and behaviours.
Methods: We used a series of cohorts of Australian adult cigarette smokers originally sourced from a nationally representative cross-sectional tracking survey, followed up approximately 1 month after their baseline interview (n(weighted)=5441). Logistic regression analyses compared changes in seven quitting-related outcomes over this 1-month follow-up period for the cohorts surveyed before PP, over the period of transition to PP, and during the first year of PP, adjusting for baseline levels of the outcome and covariates.
Results: Compared to the referent group of smokers who completed their follow-up survey pre-PP, those who were followed-up in the early transition period showed greater increases in rates of stopping themselves from smoking (OR=1.51, 95% CI (1.08 to 2.10)) and higher quit attempt rates (OR=1.43, 95% CI (1.00 to 2.03)), those followed-up in the late transition period showed greater increases in intentions to quit (OR=1.42, 95% CI (1.06 to 1.92)) and pack concealment (OR=1.55, 95% CI (1.05 to 2.31)), and those followed- up in the first year of PP showed higher levels of pack concealment (OR=1.65, 95% CI (1.01 to 2.72)), more premature stubbing out of cigarettes (OR=1.55, 95% CI (1.01 to 2.36)), and higher quit attempt rates (OR=1.52, 95% CI (1.01 to 2.30)).
Conclusions: These findings provide some of the strongest evidence to date that implementation of PP with larger GHWs was associated with increased rates of quitting cognitions, microindicators of concern and quit attempts among adult cigarette smokers.

Are quitting-related cognitions and behaviours predicted by proximal responses to plain packaging with larger health warnings? Findings from a national cohort study with Australian adult smokers

Background: Implementation of tobacco plain packaging (PP) with larger graphic health warnings (GHWs) in Australia had positive effects on responses reflecting the specific objectives of the PP policy and on follow-up quitting-related cognitions and behaviours. The aim of this study was to examine predictive relationships bewteen these proximal and distal outcomes.
Methods: A nationally representative sample of Australian adult cigarette smokers completed a baseline survey and a 1-month follow-up survey within the first year of policy implementation (n(weighted)=3215). Logistic regression analyses tested whether baseline measures of cigarette appeal, GHW effectiveness, perceived harm and concern/enjoyment predicted each of seven follow-up measures of quitted-related cognitions and behaviours, adjusting for baseline levels of the outcome and covariates.
Results: In multivariable models, we found consistent evidence that several baseline measures of GHW effectiveness positively and significantly predicted the likelihood that smokers at follow-up reported thinking about quitting at least daily, intending to quit, having a firm date to quit, stubbing out cigarettes prematurely, stopping oneself from smoking and having attempted to quit. Two of the quitting-related outcomes were also predicted by feeling more smoking-related concern than enjoyment. A smaller number of the appeal variables were prospectively associated with quitting-related outcomes, while believing that brands do not differ in harmlessness did not positively predict any outcomes.
Conclusions: These findings provide an initial insight into the pathways through which PP with larger GHWs may lead to changes in smoking behaviour. Future research should examine whether the effects are conditional on individual demographic and smoking characteristics.

Prevalence of cardiovascular and metabolic events in patients prescribed clozapine: a retrospective observational, clinical cohort study

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of clozapine for the treatment of schizophrenia has been demonstrated. However, a range of adverse events have been associated with its use. To date, there remains a paucity of data regarding the prevalence of clozapine-induced cardiovascular (CV) and parameters associated with the development of metabolic syndrome, alongside associated risk factors for their development. METHODS: An observational, clinical cohort study design of 355 clozapine patients who were enrolled in the Barwon Health Clozapine Program at Geelong Hospital, Victoria, Australia, between 2008-12. Medical records were accessed retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine associations with adverse event(s). RESULTS: Older age of commencement with clozapine was consistently associated with increased risk of CV abnormalities, with the exception of tachycardia where older age was protective (Odds Ratio [OR]: 0.97; 95% Confidence Intervals [CI]: 0.95, 0.99). Males had significantly greater odds of most metabolic disturbances with the exception of being obese (BMI: ≥30 OR: 0.45; 95% CIs: 0.24, 0.85). Older age of commencement was a significantly associated variable with High- Density Lipoprotein-cholesterol (OR: 1.03; 95% CIs: 1.01, 1.07) and fasting glucose (OR:1.04; 95% CIs: 1.02, 1.07). An increase in BMI was consistently and significantly associated with all metabolic events. CONCLUSION: Male patients who are obese at any point during treatment and older at treatment commencement may be the most vulnerable to adverse CV and metabolic events. While future studies using a matched case-control design may be required to verify these findings, we recommend that treating clinicians consider these risks when assessing patient suitability to clozapine therapy.

The impact of maternal smoking during pregnancy on depressive and anxiety behaviors in children: the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) is associated with multiple adverse childhood outcomes including externalizing behaviors. However, the association between MSDP and internalizing (anxiety and depressive) behaviors in offspring has received less investigation. We aimed to assess the association between MSDP and childhood internalizing (anxiety and depressive) behaviors in a very large, well-characterized cohort study. METHODS: We assessed the association between MSDP and internalizing behaviors in offspring utilizing information drawn from 90,040 mother-child pairs enrolled in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. Mothers reported smoking information, including status and frequency of smoking, twice during pregnancy. Mothers also reported their child's internalizing behaviors at 18 months, 36 months, and 5 years. Associations between MSDP and childhood internalizing behaviors, including dose-response and timing of smoking in pregnancy, were assessed at each time point. RESULTS: MSDP was associated with increased internalizing behaviors when offspring were aged 18 months (B = 0.11, P <0.001) and 36 months (B = 0.06, P <0.01), adjusting for numerous potential confounders. Higher rates of smoking (e.g., >20 cigarettes per day) were associated with higher levels of internalizing behaviors. Maternal smoking during early pregnancy appeared to be the critical period for exposure. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence supporting a potential role for MSDP in increasing internalizing (anxiety and depressive) behaviors in offspring. We also found evidence supportive of a possible causal relationship, including dose-dependency and support for a predominant role of early pregnancy exposure. Further investigation utilizing genetically informed designs are warranted to assess this association.

Acute human lethal toxicity of agricultural pesticides: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: agricultural pesticide poisoning is a major public health problem in the developing world, killing at least 250,000-370,000 people each year. Targeted pesticide restrictions in Sri Lanka over the last 20 years have reduced pesticide deaths by 50% without decreasing agricultural output. However, regulatory decisions have thus far not been based on the human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides but on the surrogate of rat toxicity using pure unformulated pesticides. We aimed to determine the relative human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides to improve the effectiveness of regulatory policy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: we examined the case fatality of different agricultural pesticides in a prospective cohort of patients presenting with pesticide self-poisoning to two clinical trial centers from April 2002 to November 2008. Identification of the pesticide ingested was based on history or positive identification of the container. A single pesticide was ingested by 9,302 patients. A specific pesticide was identified in 7,461 patients; 1,841 ingested an unknown pesticide. In a subset of 808 patients, the history of ingestion was confirmed by laboratory analysis in 95% of patients. There was a large variation in case fatality between pesticides-from 0% to 42%. This marked variation in lethality was observed for compounds within the same chemical and/or WHO toxicity classification of pesticides and for those used for similar agricultural indications. CONCLUSION: the human data provided toxicity rankings for some pesticides that contrasted strongly with the WHO toxicity classification based on rat toxicity. Basing regulation on human toxicity will make pesticide poisoning less hazardous, preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths globally without compromising agricultural needs. Ongoing monitoring of patterns of use and clinical toxicity for new pesticides is needed to identify highly toxic pesticides in a timely manner.

Association between serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and the risk of hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: result from a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: There is ongoing debate regarding the optimal serum concentrations of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D for musculoskeletal health, including osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of this prospective cohort study was to determine whether serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations were associated with the risk of hip arthroplasty for OA. DESIGN: This study examined 9135 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study who had serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D measured in 1999-2000 and were aged ≥40 years at the commencement of arthroplasty data collection. The incidence of hip arthroplasty for OA during 2002-2011 was determined by linking cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Over an average 9.1 (standard deviation (SD) 2.7) years of follow-up, 201 hip arthroplasties for OA were identified (males n = 90; females n = 111). In males, a one-standard-deviation increase in 25-hydroxy-vitamin D was associated with a 25% increased incidence (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.02-1.56), with a dose response relationship evident by quartiles of 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentration (P for trend 0.04). These results were independent of age, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, smoking status, physical activity, season of blood collection, latitude, hypertension and diabetes, area level disadvantage or after excluding those with extreme low 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations. No significant association was observed in women (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.87, 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations were associated with an increased risk of hip arthroplasty for OA in males, while no significant association was observed in females. The mechanism for the association warrants further investigation.

Higher dietary calcium intakes are associated with reduced risks of fractures, cardiovascular events, and mortality: a prospective cohort study of older men and women

The aim of this population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate long-term associations between dietary calcium intake and fractures, non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and death from all causes. Participants were from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, which was established in 1990 to 1994. A total of 41,514 men and women (∼99% aged 40 to 69 years at baseline) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 12 (1.5) years. Primary outcome measures were time to death from all causes (n = 2855), CVD-related deaths (n = 557), cerebrovascular disease-related deaths (n = 139), incident non-fatal CVD (n = 1827), incident stroke events (n = 537), and incident fractures (n = 788). A total of 12,097 participants (aged ≥50 years) were eligible for fracture analysis and 34,468 for non-fatal CVD and mortality analyses. Mortality was ascertained by record linkage to registries. Fractures and CVD were ascertained from interview ∼13 years after baseline. Quartiles of baseline energy-adjusted calcium intake from food were estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for quartiles of dietary calcium intake. Highest and lowest quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary calcium intakes represented unadjusted means (SD) of 1348 (316) mg/d and 473 (91) mg/d, respectively. Overall, there were 788 (10.3%) incident fractures, 1827 (9.0%) incident CVD, and 2855 people (8.6%) died. Comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of calcium intake, for all-cause mortality, the HR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.98, ptrend  = 0.01); for non-fatal CVD and stroke, the OR was 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-0.99, ptrend  = 0.04) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.51-0.93, ptrend  = 0.02), respectively; and the OR for fracture was 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.92, ptrend  = 0.004). In summary, for older men and women, calcium intakes of up to 1348 (316) mg/d from food were associated with decreased risks for fracture, non-fatal CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality.

The ontogeny of naïve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell subsets during the first postnatal year: a cohort study

As there is limited knowledge regarding the longitudinal development and early ontogeny of naïve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell subsets during the first postnatal year, we sought to evaluate the changes in proportion of naïve (thymic and central) and regulatory (resting and activated) CD4(+) T-cell populations during the first postnatal year. Blood samples were collected and analyzed at birth, 6 and 12 months of age from a population-derived sample of 130 infants. The proportion of naïve and regulatory CD4(+) T-cell populations was determined by flow cytometry, and the thymic and central naïve populations were sorted and their phenotype confirmed by relative expression of T cell-receptor excision circle DNA (TREC). At birth, the majority (94%) of CD4(+) T cells were naïve (CD45RA(+)), and of these, ~80% had a thymic naïve phenotype (CD31(+) and high TREC), with the remainder already central naïve cells (CD31(-) and low TREC). During the first year of life, the naïve CD4(+) T cells retained an overall thymic phenotype but decreased steadily. From birth to 6 months of age, the proportion of both resting naïve T regulatory cells (rTreg; CD4(+)CD45RA(+)FoxP3(+)) and activated Treg (aTreg, CD4(+)CD45RA(-)FoxP3(high)) increased markedly. The ratio of thymic to central naïve CD4(+) T cells was lower in males throughout the first postnatal year indicating early sexual dimorphism in immune development. This longitudinal study defines proportions of CD4(+) T-cell populations during the first year of postnatal life that provide a better understanding of normal immune development.

Prediction of perinatal depression from adolescence and before conception (VIHCS): 20-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Perinatal depression is a neglected global health priority, affecting 10-15% of women in high-income countries and a greater proportion in low-income countries. Outcomes for children include cognitive, behavioural, and emotional difficulties and, in low-income settings, perinatal depression is associated with stunting and physical illness. In the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (VIHCS), we aimed to assess the extent to which women with perinatal depressive symptoms had a history of mental health problems before conception. METHODS: VIHCS is a follow-up study of participants in the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS), which was initiated in August, 1992, in the state of Victoria, Australia. In VAHCS, participants were assessed for health outcomes at nine timepoints (waves) from age 14 years to age 29 years. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule and the General Health Questionnaire. Enrolment to VIHCS began in September, 2006, during the ninth wave of VAHCS; depressive symptoms at this timepoint were measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We contacted women every 6 months (from age 29 years to age 35 years) to identify any pregnancies. We assessed perinatal depressive symptoms with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) by computer-assisted telephone interview at 32 weeks of gestation, 8 weeks after birth, and 12 months after birth. We defined perinatal depression as an EPDS score of 10 or more. FINDINGS: From a stratified random sample of 1000 female participants in VAHCS, we enrolled 384 women with 564 pregnancies. 253 (66%) of these women had a previous history of mental health problems at some point in adolescence or young adulthood. 117 women with a history of mental health problems in both adolescence and young adulthood had 168 pregnancies, and perinatal depressive symptoms were reported for 57 (34%) of these pregnancies, compared with 16 (8%) of 201 pregnancies in 131 women with no preconception history of mental health problems (adjusted odds ratio 8·36, 95% CI 3·34-20·87). Perinatal depressive symptoms were reported at one or more assessment points in 109 pregnancies; a preconception history of mental health problems was reported in 93 (85%) of these pregnancies. INTERPRETATION: Perinatal depressive symptoms are mostly preceded by mental health problems that begin before pregnancy, in adolescence or young adulthood. Women with a history of persisting common mental disorders before pregnancy are an identifiable high-risk group, deserving of clinical support throughout the childbearing years. Furthermore, the window for considering preventive intervention for perinatal depression should extend to the time before conception. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Victorian Health Promotion Foundation, Colonial Foundation, Australian Rotary Health Research and Perpetual Trustees.

Change of school in early adolescence and adverse obesity-related dietary behavior: a longitudinal cohort study, Victoria, Australia, 2013-2014

INTRODUCTION: Environments that facilitate energy-dense, nutrient-poor diets are associated with childhood obesity. We examined the effect of a change of school environment on the prevalence of obesity and related dietary behavior in early adolescence. METHODS: Fifteen schools in Victoria, Australia, were recruited at random from the bottom 2 strata of a 5-level socioeconomic scale. In 9 schools, students in grade 6 primary school transitioned to different schools for grade 7 secondary school, whereas in 6 schools, students remained in the same school from grade 6 to grade 7. Time 1 measures were collected from students (N = 245) in grade 6 (aged 11-13 y). Time 2 data were collected from 243 (99%) of the original cohort in grade 7. Data collected were dietary recall self-reported by students via questionnaire, measured height and weight of students, and aspects of the school food environment via school staff survey. Comparative and mixed model regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Of 243 students, 63% (n = 152) changed schools from time 1 to time 2, with no significant difference in weight status. Students who changed schools reported an increase in purchases of after-school snack food, greater sweetened beverage intake, fewer fruit-and-vegetable classroom breaks, and less encouragement for healthy eating compared with students who remained in the same school. School staff surveys showed that more primary than secondary schools had written healthy canteen policies and fewer days of canteen or food services operation. CONCLUSION: A change of school environment has negative effects on children's obesity-related dietary behavior. Consistent policy is needed across school types to support healthy eating in school environments.