The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Searching for the ideal DNA recognition code of covalent ligands

The combitiatorial approach restriction endonuclease protection selection and amplification REPSA was successfully used to determine ideal DNA interactions sites of covalent ligands. Unlike most other combinatorial methods, REPSA is based on inhibition of enzymatic cleavage by specific ligand-DNA complexes, which enables identification of binding sites of various ligands. However, the inherent nature of this technique posses a problem during selection of binding sites of covalent ligands. By modifying the technique according to the nature of the ligand, we demonstrate the flexibility of REPSA in identifying the preferred binding sites for monocovalent ligands, topoisomerase I and tallimustine, and the bicovalent ligand topoisomerase II. From among the preferred binding sites, we identified the consensus binding sequence of camptothecin induced topoisomerase I cleavage as ‘aGWT/Gc’, and tallimustine consensus sequences as ‘GTTCTA’ and ‘TTTTTTC’. We have shown for the first time that preferential binding of tallimustine occurs at sequences not previously reported. Furthermore, our data indicate that tallimustine is a novel DNA minor groove, guanine-specific alkylating agent. ^ Additionally, we have demonstrated in vivo that sequence-specific covalent DNA-binding small molecules have the ability to regulate transcription by inhibiting RNA polymerase II. Tallimustine, binding to its preferred sequences located in the 5′ untranslated region were an effective impediment for transcribing polymerase II. The ability of covalent binding small molecules to target predetermined DNA sequences located downstream of the promoter suggests a general approach for regulation of gene expression. ^

Violations of the international code of marketing of breast milk substitutes: prevalence in four countries

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of violations of the international code of marketing of substitutes for breast milk in one city in each of Bangladesh, Poland, South Africa, and Thailand.

The Universality of Civil War Definitions: A Study of How Regional Considerations Impact Civil War in Somalia, Colombia, and Angola

Civil war is a socially intimate phenomenon. The viability of the conflict hinges on recruitment for the cause, military strategy, community support, and a variety of other conditional factors. Despite this dependence on local society, many researchers approach civil war from a global perspective, attempting to discover universal truths about this kind of conflict. This capstone project focuses on restricting the operating parameters of civil war research projects to the span of a single continent, hoping to achieve deeper insight by focusing the research using a more culturally sensitive set of parameters. By using cultural data to guide civil war research, conflict indicators can tailor conflict prevention to escalating violent scenarios.