Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Optimization of HS-SPME/GC-MS analysis and its use in the profiling of illicit ecstasy tablets (Part 1)

A headspace solid-phase microextraction procedure (HS-SPME) was developed for the profiling of traces present in 3,4-methylenedioxymethylampethamine (MDMA). Traces were first extracted using HS-SPME and then analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). The HS-SPME conditions were optimized using varying conditions. Optimal results were obtained when 40 mg of crushed MDMA sample was heated at 80 °C for 15 min, followed by extraction at 80 °C for 15 min with a polydimethylsiloxane/divinylbenzene coated fibre. A total of 31 compounds were identified as traces related to MDMA synthesis, namely precursors, intermediates or by-products. In addition some fatty acids used as tabletting materials and caffeine used as adulterant, were also detected. The use of a restricted set of 10 target compounds was also proposed for developing a screening tool for clustering samples having close profile. 114 seizures were analyzed using an SPME auto-sampler (MultiPurpose Samples MPS2), purchased from Gerstel GMBH & Co. (Germany), and coupled to GC-MS. The data was handled using various pre-treatment methods, followed by the study of similarities between sample pairs based on the Pearson correlation. The results show that HS-SPME, coupled with the suitable statistical method is a powerful tool for distinguishing specimens coming from the same seizure and specimens coming from different seizures. This information can be used by law enforcement personnel to visualize the ecstasy distribution network as well as the clandestine tablet manufacturing.

Multicentric carpotarsal osteolysis is caused by mutations clustering in the amino-terminal transcriptional activation domain of MAFB.

Multicentric carpotarsal osteolysis (MCTO) is a rare skeletal dysplasia characterized by aggressive osteolysis, particularly affecting the carpal and tarsal bones, and is frequently associated with progressive renal failure. Using exome capture and next-generation sequencing in five unrelated simplex cases of MCTO, we identified previously unreported missense mutations clustering within a 51 base pair region of the single exon of MAFB, validated by Sanger sequencing. A further six unrelated simplex cases with MCTO were also heterozygous for previously unreported mutations within this same region, as were affected members of two families with autosomal-dominant MCTO. MAFB encodes a transcription factor that negatively regulates RANKL-induced osteoclastogenesis and is essential for normal renal development. Identification of this gene paves the way for development of novel therapeutic approaches for this crippling disease and provides insight into normal bone and kidney development.

Spatial Scale of Clustering of Motor Vehicle Crash Types and Appropriate Countermeasures, 2009

This project analyzes the characteristics and spatial distributions of motor vehicle crash types in order to evaluate the degree and scale of their spatial clustering. Crashes occur as the result of a variety of vehicle, roadway, and human factors and thus vary in their clustering behavior. Clustering can occur at a variety of scales, from the intersection level, to the corridor level, to the area level. Conversely, other crash types are less linked to geographic factors and are more spatially “random.” The degree and scale of clustering have implications for the use of strategies to promote transportation safety. In this project, Iowa's crash database, geographic information systems, and recent advances in spatial statistics methodologies and software tools were used to analyze the degree and spatial scale of clustering for several crash types within the counties of the Iowa Northland Regional Council of Governments. A statistical measure called the K function was used to analyze the clustering behavior of crashes. Several methodological issues, related to the application of this spatial statistical technique in the context of motor vehicle crashes on a road network, were identified and addressed. These methods facilitated the identification of crash clusters at appropriate scales of analysis for each crash type. This clustering information is useful for improving transportation safety through focused countermeasures directly linked to crash causes and the spatial extent of identified problem locations, as well as through the identification of less location-based crash types better suited to non-spatial countermeasures. The results of the K function analysis point to the usefulness of the procedure in identifying the degree and scale at which crashes cluster, or do not cluster, relative to each other. Moreover, for many individual crash types, different patterns and processes and potentially different countermeasures appeared at different scales of analysis. This finding highlights the importance of scale considerations in problem identification and countermeasure formulation.

Aggregation invariance in general clustering approaches

General clustering deals with weighted objects and fuzzy memberships. We investigate the group- or object-aggregation-invariance properties possessed by the relevant functionals (effective number of groups or objects, centroids, dispersion, mutual object-group information, etc.). The classical squared Euclidean case can be generalized to non-Euclidean distances, as well as to non-linear transformations of the memberships, yielding the c-means clustering algorithm as well as two presumably new procedures, the convex and pairwise convex clustering. Cluster stability and aggregation-invariance of the optimal memberships associated to the various clustering schemes are examined as well.

Identification of in vitro HSC fate regulators by differential lipid raft clustering.

Most hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) in the bone marrow reside in a quiescent state and occasionally enter the cell cycle upon cytokine-induced activation. Although the mechanisms regulating HSC quiescence and activation remain poorly defined, recent studies have revealed a role of lipid raft clustering (LRC) in HSC activation. Here, we tested the hypothesis that changes in lipid raft distribution could serve as an indicator of the quiescent and activated state of HSCs in response to putative niche signals. A semi-automated image analysis tool was developed to map the presence or absence of lipid raft clusters in live HSCs cultured for just one hour in serum-free medium supplemented with stem cell factor (SCF). By screening the ability of 19 protein candidates to alter lipid raft dynamics, we identified six factors that induced either a marked decrease (Wnt5a, Wnt3a and Osteopontin) or increase (IL3, IL6 and VEGF) in LRC. Cell cycle kinetics of single HSCs exposed to these factors revealed a correlation of LRC dynamics and proliferation kinetics: factors that decreased LRC slowed down cell cycle kinetics, while factors that increased LRC led to faster and more synchronous cycling. The possibility of identifying, by LRC analysis at very early time points, whether a stem cell is activated and possibly committed upon exposure to a signaling cue of interest could open up new avenues for large-scale screening efforts.

The analysis of ecstasy tablets in a forensic drug intelligence perspective

The use by police services and inquiring agencies of forensic data in an intelligence perspective is still fragmentary and to some extent ignored. In order to increase the efficiency of criminal investigation to target illegal drug trafficking organisations and to provide valuable information about their methods, it is necessary to include and interpret objective drug analysis results already during the investigation phase. The value of visual, physical and chemical data of seized ecstasy tablets, as a support for criminal investigation on a strategic and tactical level has been investigated. In a first phase different characteristics of ecstasy tablets have been studied in order to define their relevance, variation, correlation and discriminating power in an intelligence perspective. During 5 years, over 1200 cases of ecstasy seizures (concerning about 150000 seized tablets) coming from different regions of Switzerland (City and Canton of Zurich, Cantons Ticino, Neuchâtel and Geneva) have been systematically recorded. This turned out to be a statistically representative database including large and small cases. During the second phase various comparison and clustering methods have been tested and evaluated, on the type and relevance of tablet characteristics, thus increasing knowledge about synthetic drugs, their manufacturing and trafficking. Finally analytical methodologies have been investigated and formalised, applying traditional intelligence methods. In this context classical tools, which are used in criminal analysis (like the I2 Analyst Notebook, I2 Ibase, ?) have been tested and adapted to address the specific need of forensic drug intelligence. The interpretation of these links provides valuable information about criminal organisations and their trafficking methods. In the final part of this thesis practical examples illustrate the use and value of such information.

Clustering of grape yield maps to delineate site-specific management zones

Zonal management in vineyards requires the prior delineation of stable yield zones within the parcel. Among the different methodologies used for zone delineation, cluster analysis of yield data from several years is one of the possibilities cited in scientific literature. However, there exist reasonable doubts concerning the cluster algorithm to be used and the number of zones that have to be delineated within a field. In this paper two different cluster algorithms have been compared (k-means and fuzzy c-means) using the grape yield data corresponding to three successive years (2002, 2003 and 2004), for a ‘Pinot Noir’ vineyard parcel. Final choice of the most recommendable algorithm has been linked to obtaining a stable pattern of spatial yield distribution and to allowing for the delineation of compact and average sized areas. The general recommendation is to use reclassified maps of two clusters or yield classes (low yield zone and high yield zone) and, consequently, the site-specific vineyard management should be based on the prior delineation of just two different zones or sub-parcels. The two tested algorithms are good options for this purpose. However, the fuzzy c-means algorithm allows for a better zoning of the parcel, forming more compact areas and with more equilibrated zonal differences over time.

Analysis of the genetic basis of periodic fever with aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, and cervical adenitis (PFAPA) syndrome.

PFAPA syndrome is the most common autoinflammatory syndrome in children from Western countries. In spite of its strong familial clustering, its genetic basis and inheritance pattern are still unknown. We performed a comprehensive genetic study on 68 individuals from 14 families. Linkage analysis suggested a susceptibility locus on chromosome 8, but direct molecular sequencing did not support this initial statistical finding. Exome sequencing revealed the absence of any gene that was mutated in all patients. Exhaustive screening of genes involved in other autoinflammatory syndromes or encoding components of the human inflammasome showed no DNA variants that could be linked to PFAPA molecular pathology. Among these, the previously-reported missense mutation V198M in the NLRP3 gene was clearly shown not to co-segregate with PFAPA. Our results on this relatively large cohort indicate that PFAPA syndrome is unlikely to be a monogenic condition. Moreover, none of the several genes known to be involved in inflammation or in autoinflammatory disorders seem to be relevant, alone, to its etiology, suggesting that PFAPA results from oligogenic or complex inheritance of variants in multiple disease genes and/or non-genetic factors.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Rockfall detection from LIDAR point clouds: A clustering approach using R

The analysis of rockfall characteristics and spatial distribution is fundamental to understand and model the main factors that predispose to failure. In our study we analysed LiDAR point clouds aiming to: (1) detect and characterise single rockfalls; (2) investigate their spatial distribution. To this end, different cluster algorithms were applied: 1a) Nearest Neighbour Clutter Removal (NNCR) in combination with the Expectation?Maximization (EM) in order to separate feature points from clutter; 1b) a density based algorithm (DBSCAN) was applied to isolate the single clusters (i.e. the rockfall events); 2) finally we computed the Ripley's K-function to investigate the global spatial pattern of the extracted rockfalls. The method allowed proper identification and characterization of more than 600 rockfalls occurred on a cliff located in Puigcercos (Catalonia, Spain) during a time span of six months. The spatial distribution of these events proved that rockfall were clustered distributed at a welldefined distance-range. Computations were carried out using R free software for statistical computing and graphics. The understanding of the spatial distribution of precursory rockfalls may shed light on the forecasting of future failures.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

A Social Network Analysis of Twitter: Mapping the Digital Humanities Community

Defining digital humanities might be an endless debate if we stick to the discussion about the boundaries of this concept as an academic "discipline". In an attempt to concretely identify this field and its actors, this paper shows that it is possible to analyse them through Twitter, a social media widely used by this "community of practice". Based on a network analysis of 2,500 users identified as members of this movement, the visualisation of the "who's following who?" graph allows us to highlight the structure of the network's relationships, and identify users whose position is particular. Specifically, we show that linguistic groups are key factors to explain clustering within a network whose characteristics look similar to a small world.

Has concentration evolved similarly in manufacturing and services? A sensitivity analysis

Our first objective is to compare the degree of concentration in manufacturing and services, with special emphasis on its evolution in these two sectors, using a sensitivity analysis for different concentration indices and different geographic units of analysis: municipalities and local labour systems of Catalonia in 1991 and 2001. Most concentration measures fail to consider the space in which a particular municipality is located. Our second objective is to overcome this problem by applying two different techniques: by using a clustering measure, and by analysing whether the location quotients computed for each municipality and sector present some kind of spatial autocorrelation process. We take special account of the differences in patterns of concentration according to the technological level of the sectors.

Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.