993 resultados para Climatic variability
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.
Resumo:
In addition to revealing the hidden link between products or consumption patterns of populations and their needs in terms of water resources, the water footprint (WF) indicator generates new debates and solutions on water management at basin scale. This paper analyses the green and blue WF of the Guadalquivir basin and its integration with environmental water consumption, with a special emphasis on the WF from groundwater and its consequences on current and future depletion of surface water. In a normal year, green WF (agriculture and pastures) amounts to 190 mm on a total green water consumption of 410 mm, while the blue WF (50 mm) represents half of the total blue water flows. This constitutes a first overview and alternative interpretations of the WF as human water appropriation are introduced. The blue WF is almost entirely associated to agriculture (40 mm). The presentation of its evolution over the period 1997?2008 reveals the rising WF from groundwater (13 mm in 2008), 86% being current consumption of surface flows. This evolution is particularly ascribed to the recent development of irrigated olive groves from groundwater. To prevent a higher pressure on the environment, this new use, like all others (thermo-solar plants, tourism, etc.), could have been obtained from the reallocation of water from crops with low water productivity. It means that water is not lacking in the Guadalquivir basin if the governance setting integrates more flexibility and equity in the allocation of water to address climatic variability and the emergence of new demands.
Resumo:
The movement of water through the landscape can be investigated at different scales. This study dealt with the interrelation between bedrock lithology and the geometry of the overlying drainage systems. Parameters of fractal analysis, such as fractal dimension and lacunarity, were used to measure and quantify this relationship. The interrelation between bedrock lithology and the geometry of the drainage systems has been widely studied in the last decades. The quantification of this linkage has not yet been clearly established. Several studies have selected river basins or regularly shaped areas as study units, assuming them to be lithologically homogeneous. This study considered irregular distributions of rock types, establishing areas of the soil map (1:25,000) with the same lithologic information as study units. The tectonic stability and the low climatic variability of the study region allowed effective investigation of the lithologic controls on the drainage networks developed on the plutonic rocks, the metamorphic rocks, and the sedimentary materials existing in the study area. To exclude the effect of multiple in- and outflows in the lithologically homogeneous units, we focused this study on the first-order streams of the drainage networks. The geometry of the hydrologic features was quantified through traditional metrics of fluvial geomorphology and scaling parameters of fractal analysis, such as the fractal dimension, the reference density, and the lacunarity. The results demonstrate the scale invariance of both the drainage networks and the set of first-order streams at the study scale and a relationship between scaling in the lithology and the drainage network.
Resumo:
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) produced by agricultural soils due to microbial processes. The application of N fertilizers is associated with an increase of N2O losses. However, it is possible to mitigate these emissions by the introduction of adequate management practices (Snyder et al., 2009). Soil conservation practices (i.e.no tillage, NT) have recently become widespread because they promote several positive effects (increases in soil organic carbonand soil fertility, reduction of soil erosion, etc). In terms of GHG emissions, there is no consensus in the literature on the effects of tillage on N2O. Several studies found that NT can produce greater (Baggs et al., 2003), lower (Malhi et al., 2006) or similar (Grandey et al., 2006) N2O emissions compared to traditional tillage (TT). This large uncertainty is associated with the duration of tillage practices and climatic variability. Liming is widely use to solve problems of soil acidity (Al toxicity, yield penalties, etc). Several studies show a decrease in N2O emissions with liming (Barton et al., 2013) whereas no significant effects or increases were observed in others (Galbally et al., 2010). The aim of this work was to evaluate the effects of tillage (NT vs TT) and liming application or not of Ca-amendment) on N2O emissions from an acid soil during a rainfed crop.
Resumo:
Two cores, Site 1089 (ODP Leg 177) and PS2821-1, recovered from the same location (40°56'S; 9°54'E) at the Subtropical Front (STF) in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean, provide a high-resolution climatic record, with an average temporal resolution of less than 600 yr. A multi-proxy approach was used to produce an age model for Core PS2821-1, and to correlate the two cores. Both cores document the last climatic cycle, from Marine Isotopic Stage 6 (MIS 6, ca. 160 kyr BP, ka) to present. Summer sea-surface temperatures (SSSTs) have been estimated, with a standard error of ca. +/-1.16°C, for the down core record by using Q-mode factor analysis (Imbrie and Kipp method). The paleotemperatures show a 7°C warming at Termination II (last interglacial, transition from MIS 6 to MIS 5). This transition from glacial to interglacial paleotemperatures (with maximum temperatures ca. 3°C warmer than present at the core location) occurs earlier than the corresponding shift in delta18O values for benthic foraminifera from the same core; this suggests a lead of Southern Ocean paleotemperature changes compared to the global ice-volume changes, as indicated by the benthic isotopic record. The climatic evolution of the record continues with a progressive temperature deterioration towards MIS 2. High-frequency, millennial-scale climatic instability has been documented for MIS 3 and part of MIS 4, with sudden temperature variations of almost the same magnitude as those observed at the transitions between glacial and interglacial times. These changes occur during the same time interval as the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles recognized in the delta18Oice record of the GRIP and GISP ice cores from Greenland, and seem to be connected to rapid changes in the STF position in relation to the core location. Sudden cooling episodes ('Younger Dryas (YD)-type' and 'Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR)-type' of events) have been recognized for both Termination I (ACR-I and YD-I events) and II (ACR-II and YD-II events), and imply that our core is located in an optimal position in order to record events triggered by phenomena occurring in both hemispheres. Spectral analysis of our SSST record displays strong analogies, particularly for high, sub-orbital frequencies, to equivalent records from Vostok (Antarctica) and from the Subtropical North Atlantic ocean. This implies that the climatic variability of widely separated areas (the Antarctic continent, the Subtropical North Atlantic, and the Subantarctic South Atlantic) can be strongly coupled and co-varying at millennial time scales (a few to 10-ka periods), and eventually induced by the same triggering mechanisms. Climatic variability has also been documented for supposedly warm and stable interglacial intervals (MIS 1 and 5), with several cold events which can be correlated to other Southern Ocean and North Atlantic sediment records.
Resumo:
The concentration and carbon isotopic composition (d13C) of sedimentary organic carbon (C_org), N/C ratios, and terrigenous and marine d13C_org endmembers form a basis from which to address problems of Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climatic variability in a 208.7 m hydraulic piston core (DSDP 619) from the Pigmy Basin in the northern Gulf of Mexico. While interpretations of sedimentary d13C_org time series records are often not unique, paired analyses of d13C_org and N/C are consistent with the hypothesis that the C_org in the Pigmy Basin is a climatically determined mixture of C3-photosynthetic terrigenous and marine organic matter, confirming the earlier d13C_org model of Sackett (1964). A high resolution (~1.4-2.9 Ka/sample) d13C_org record shows that sedimentary organic carbon in interglacial oxygen isotope (sub)stages 1 and 5a-b are enriched in 13C (average +/-1 sigma values are -24.2+/-1.2? and -22.9+/-0.7? relative to PDB, respectively) while glacial isotope stage values 2 are relatively depleted (-25.6+/-0.5?). Concentrations of terrigenous and marine sedimentary organic carbon are calculated for the first time using d13C_org and C_org measurements, and empirically determined terrigenous and marine d13C_org endmembers. The net accumulation rate of terrigenous organic carbon is 4.3+/-2.6 times higher in isotope stages 2-4 than in (sub)stages 1 and 5a-b, recording higher erosion rates of terrigenous organic material in glacial times. The concentration and net accumulation rates of marine and terrigenous C_org suggest that the nutrient-bearing plume of the Mississippi River may have advanced and retreated across the Pigmy Basin as sea level fell and rose in response to glacial-interglacial sea level change.
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The present-day condition of bipolar glaciation characterized by rapid and large climate fluctuations began at the end of the Pliocene with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations. The global cooling steps of the late Pliocene have been documented in numerous studies of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites from the Northern Hemisphere. However, the interactions between oceans and between land and ocean during these cooling steps are poorly known. In particular, data from the Southern Hemisphere are lacking. Therefore I investigated the pollen of ODP Site 1082 in the southeast Atlantic Ocean in order to obtain a high-resolution record of vegetation change in Namibia between 3.4 and 1.8 Ma. Four phases of vegetation development are inferred that are connected to global climate change. (1) Before 3 Ma, extensive, rather open grass-rich savannahs with mopane trees existed in Namibia, but the extension of desert and semidesert vegetation was still restricted. (2) Increase of winter rainfall dependent Renosterveld-like vegetation occurred between 3.1 and 2.2 Ma connected to strong advection of polar waters along the Namibian coast and a northward shift of the Polar Front Zone in the Southern Ocean. (3) Climatically induced fluctuations became stronger between 2.7 and 2.2 Ma and semiarid areas extended during glacial periods probably as the result of an increased pole-equator thermal gradient and consequently globally enhanced atmospheric circulation. (4) Aridification and climatic variability further increased after 2.2 Ma, when the Polar Front Zone migrated southward and the influence of Atlantic moisture brought by the westerlies to southern Africa declined. It is concluded that the positions of the frontal systems in the Southern Ocean which determine the locations of the high-pressure cells over the South Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean have a strong influence on the climate of southern Africa in contrast to the climate of northwest and central Africa, which is dominated by the Saharan low-pressure cell.
Resumo:
A record of carbon and oxygen isotopes in benthic and planktonic foraminifers has been obtained from the interval corresponding to the last 2.4 m.y. of Site 610, Holes 610 and 610A, with a sample resolution of about 30 kyr. The record from the late Quaternary (<0.9 Ma) shows large amplitudes and high frequencies in oxygen isotopic variation. Prior to 0.9 Ma the isotopic variability record is reduced in amplitude (but not in frequency) compared with the late Quaternary, suggesting lower ice-volume and climatic fluctuations, and higher average eustatic sea level. Left-coiling (L, polar) Neogloboquadrinapachyderma were not found in samples between 1.0 and 2.2 Ma, indicating less influence of polar front migrations in the Northeast Atlantic. Both polar planktonic faunas and larger isotope fluctuations reappear in the lowermost samples (2.3 to 2.4 Ma), pointing toward a period of larger climatic variability in the late Pliocene than in the early Quaternary. The variation in benthic d13C and hence in deep-water d13C seems to have been constant through the analyzed section, reflecting a stable variability in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and possibly in Norwegian-Greenland Sea Overflow. Preliminary analyses of amino-acid epimerization in N. pachyderma (L) indicate a constant rate of epimerization to approximately 0.3 Ma. Beneath this level the average epimerization rate is much reduced.
Resumo:
The Mediterranean Sea is a partillay isolated ocean where excess evaporation over precipitation results in large east to west gradients in temperature and salinity. Recent planktonic foraminiferal distributions have been examined in 66 surface sediment samples from the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to mapping the frequency distribution of 16 species, the faunal data has been subjected to cluster analysis, factor analysis and species diversity analysis. The clustering of species yields assemblages that are clearly temperature related. A warm assemblage contains both tropical and subtropical elements, while the cool assemblage can be subdivided into cool-subtropical, transitional and polar-subpolar groupings. Factor analysis is used to delineate the geographic distribution of four faunal assemblages. Factor 1 is a tropical-subtropical assemblage dominated by Globigerinoiden ruber. It has its highest values in the warmer eastern basin. Transitional species (Globorotalia inflata and Globigerina bulloides) dominate factor 2 with highest values occurring in the cooler western basin. Factor 3 reflects the distribution of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and is considered to be salinity dependent. Subpolar species dominate factor 4 (Neoglobuquadrina pachyderma and G. bulloides), with highest values occurring in the northern part of the western basin where cold bottom water is presently being formed. The Shannon-Weiner index of species diversity shows that high diversity exists over much of the western basin and immediately east of the Strait of Sicily. This region is marked by equitable environmental conditions and relatively even distribution of individuals among the species. Conversely, in areas where temperature and salinity values are more extreme, diversity values are lower and the assemblages are dominated by one or two species.