Climatic factors control rodent seed predation in Pinus pinea L. stands in Central Spain

- Context: Pinus pinea L. presents serious problems of natural regeneration in managed forest of Central Spain. The species exhibits specific traits linked to frugivore activity. Therefore, information on plant–animal interactions may be crucial to understand regeneration failure. - Aims: Determining the spatio-temporal pattern of P. pinea seed predation by Apodemus sylvaticus L. and the factors involved. Exploring the importance of A. sylvaticus L. as a disperser of P. pinea. Identifying other frugivores and their seasonal patterns. - Methods: An intensive 24-month seed predation trial was carried out. The probability of seeds escaping predation was modelled through a zero-inflated binomial mixed model. Experiments on seed dispersal by A. sylvaticus were conducted. Cameras were set up to identify other potential frugivores. - Results: Decreasing rodent population in summer and masting enhances seed survival. Seeds were exploited more rapidly nearby parent trees and shelters. A. sylvaticus dispersal activity was found to be scarce. Corvids marginally preyed upon P. pinea seeds. - Conclusions: Survival of P. pinea seeds is climate-controlled through the timing of the dry period together with masting occurrence. Should germination not take place during the survival period, establishment may be limited. A. sylvaticus mediated dispersal does not modify the seed shadow. Seasonality of corvid activity points to a role of corvids in dispersal.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.

Temperatures at the last interglacial simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model

The last interglacial (Eemian, 125,000 years ago) has generally been considered the warmest time period in the last 200,000 years and thus sometimes been used as a reference for greenhouse projections. Herein we report results from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model of the surface temperature response to changes in the radiative forcing at the last interglacial. Although the model generates the expected summer warming in the northern hemisphere, winter cooling of a comparable magnitude occurs over North Africa and tropical Asia. The global annual mean temperature for the Eemian run is 0.3 degrees C cooler than the control run. Validation of simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) against reconstructed SSTs supports this conclusion and also the assumption that the flux correction, fitted for the present state, operates satisfactorily for modest perturbations. Our results imply that contrary to conventional expectations, Eemian global temperatures may already have been reached by the mid 20th century.

Climate Change Policy & the Natural Gas Transmission Sector

Various emission reduction strategies are proposed to manage climate change in the U.S. This applied capstone evaluates the most likely policy options considering impacts and benefits to the natural gas transmission sector (NGT). It examines a case-study including a comparison of policy options to recommend the most beneficial program to the NGT sector. Two conclusions of major importance are: a federally preempted cap-and-trade program would be the most cost-effective for the NGT sector and the NGT sector should not be the point of regulation of any climate policy. Recommendations, strategies, and costs for implementation of a compliance plan for a federally preempted cap-and-trade program were developed as a tool for NGT companies as part of this applied capstone project.

Abundancia y distribución de especies depredadoras sometidas a control en gestión cinegética: estudio de caso representativo de la urraca (Pica pica) en la comarca de la Marina Baja

El presente estudio tiene como objeto analizar la abundancia y distribución de la urraca en función de las diferentes matrices de usos del suelo y gradientes ambientales. Este trabajo se ha centrado en la Comarca de la Marina Baja (Alicante), una región con 578,8 Km² de superficie. La zona cuenta con una vegetación climática de carrascal de termotipo mesomediterráneo y ombrotipo seco y subhúmedo. Se han realizado un total de 396 transectos para estimar la abundancia de la urraca durante los años 2006-2008, en diferentes matrices del paisaje: natural, abandono, regadío y secano. Las abundancias relativas, la evolución de la especie, el efecto sobre otras especies de caza y el efecto que tiene el control poblacional de las urracas se ha obtenido de 21 encuestas realizadas a los gestores de los terrenos cinegéticos. El análisis de los resultados, muestra una mayor abundancia de los individuos en zonas de cultivo de secano (IKA=0.76 aves/km) y cultivos abandonados (IKA=0.73 aves/km), siendo los valores medios anuales cada vez mayores desde el inicio del muestreo. El análisis múltiple de regresión lineal de la abundancia de urraca con la matriz de usos del suelo muestra una relación significativa y positiva con el abandono antiguo (p<0.01), el frutal de secano y las zonas húmedas (p<0.05), mientras que no hay relación significativa (p>0.05) con los índices del paisaje. El análisis ANOVA muestra que las variables significativas influyentes sobre el número de urracas son: matriz de usos del suelo, latitud/ombroclima, continentalidad y la interacción usos del suelo:continentalidad (p<0.05). La urraca ha experimentado un aumento en sus poblaciones desde principios de la primera década del actual siglo. Los cotos que realizan un control sobre la población de urracas tienen un efecto positivo que se ve reflejado en la menor afección sobre otras especies cinegéticas.

Fuzzy control of a water pump for an agricultural plant growth system

At the present time there is a high pressure toward the improvement of all the production processes. Those improvements can be sensed in several directions in particular those that involve energy efficiency. The definition of tight energy efficiency improvement policies is transversal to several operational areas ranging from industry to public services. As can be expected, agricultural processes are not immune to this tendency. This statement takes more severe contours when dealing with indoor productions where it is required to artificially control the climate inside the building or a partial growing zone. Regarding the latter, this paper presents an innovative system that improves energy efficiency of a trees growing platform. This new system requires the control of both a water pump and a gas heating system based on information provided by an array of sensors. In order to do this, a multi-input, multi-output regulator was implemented by means of a Fuzzy logic control strategy. Presented results show that it is possible to simultaneously keep track of the desired growing temperature set-point while maintaining actuators stress within an acceptable range.

Quo vadis Aethina tumida? Biology and control of small hive beetles

Small hive beetles (SHBs) are generalists native to sub-Saharan Africa and reproduce in association with honeybees, bumblebees, stingless bees, fruits and meat. The SHB has recently become an invasive species, and introductions have been recorded from America, Australia, Europe and Asia since 1996. hile SHBs are usually considered a minor pest in Africa, they can cause significant damage to social bee colonies in their new ranges. Potential reasons for differential impact include differences in bee behaviour, climate and release from natural enemies. Here, we provide an overview on biology, distribution, pest status, diagnosis, control and prevention to foster adequate mitigation and stimulate future research. SHBs have become a global threat to both apiculture and wild bee populations, but our knowledge of this pest is still limited, reating demand for more research in all areas of its biology.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.

(Table 1) Age control points of ODP Site 160-968

The astronomical timescale of the Eastern Mediterranean Plio-Pleistocene builds on tuning of sapropel layers to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. A 3000-year precession lag has become instrumental in the tuning procedure as radiocarbon dating revealed that the midpoint of the youngest sapropel, S1, in the early Holocene occurred approximately 3000 years after the insolation maximum. The origin of the time lag remains elusive, however, because sapropels are generally linked to maximum African monsoon intensities and transient climate modeling results indicate an in-phase behavior of the African monsoon relative to precession forcing. Here we present new high-resolution records of bulk sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from ODP Site 968 in the Eastern Mediterranean. We show that the 3000-year precession time lag of the sapropel midpoints is consistent with (1) the global marine isotope chronology, (2) maximum (monsoonal) precipitation conditions in the Mediterranean region and China derived from radiometrically dated speleothem records, and (3) maximum atmospheric methane concentrations in Antarctica ice cores. We show that the time lag relates to the occurrence of precession-paced North Atlantic cold events, which systematically delayed the onset of strong boreal summer monsoon intensity. Our findings may also explain a non-stationary behavior of the African monsoon over the past 3 million years due to more frequent and intensive cold events in the Late Pleistocene.

(Table 2) Depth-age control points of ODP Site 177-1090

At Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1090 on the Agulhas Ridge (subantarctic South Atlantic) benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records span the late Oligocene through the early Miocene (25~16 Ma) at a temporal resolution of ?10 kyr. In the same time interval a magnetic polarity stratigraphy can be unequivocally correlated to the geomagnetic polarity timescale (GPTS), thereby providing secure correlation of the isotope record to the GPTS. On the basis of the isotope-magnetostratigraphic correlation we provide refined age calibration of established oxygen isotope events Mi1 through Mi2 as well as several other distinctive isotope events. Our data suggest that the d18O maximum commonly associated with the Oligocene/Miocene (O/M) boundary falls within C6Cn.2r (23.86 Ma). The d13C maximum coincides, within the temporal resolution of our record, with C6Cn.2n/r boundary and hence to the O/M boundary. Comparison of the stable isotope record from ODP Site 1090 to the orbitally tuned stable isotope record from ODP Site 929 across the O/M boundary shows that variability in the two records is very similar and can be correlated at and below the O/M boundary. Site 1090 stable isotope records also provide the first deep Southern Ocean end-member for reconstructions of circulation patterns and late Oligocene to early Miocene climate change. Comparison to previously published records suggests that basin to basin carbon isotope gradients were small or nonexistent and are inconclusive with respect to the direction of deep water flow. Oxygen isotope gradients between sites suggest that the deep Southern Ocean was cold in comparison to the North Atlantic, Indian, and the Pacific Oceans. Dominance of cold Southern Component Deep Water at Site 1090, at least until 17 Ma, suggests that relatively cold circumpolar climatic conditions prevailed during the late Oligocene and early Miocene. We believe that a relatively cold Southern Ocean reflects unrestricted circumpolar flow through the Drake Passage in agreement with bathymetric reconstructions.

Threatening Messages in Climate Change Communication

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Job uncertainty and personal control during downsizing: A comparison of survivors and victims

This study developed and tested a model of job uncertainty for survivors and victims of downsizing. Data were collected from three samples of employees in a public hospital, each representing three phases of the downsizing process: immediately before the announcement of the redeployment of staff, during the implementation of the downsizing, and towards the end of the official change programme. As predicted, levels of job uncertainty and personal control had a direct relationship with emotional exhaustion and job satisfaction, In addition, there was evidence to suggest that personal control mediated the relationship between job uncertainty and employee adjustment, a pattern of results that varied across each of the three phases of the change event. From the perspective of the organization's overall climate, it was found that levels of job uncertainty, personal control and job satisfaction improved and/or stabilized over the downsizing process. During the implementation phase, survivors experienced higher levels of personal control than victims, but both groups of employees reported similar levels of job uncertainty. We discuss the implications of our results for strategically managing uncertainty during and after organizational change.

The role of psychological climate in facilitating employee adjustment during organizational change

The current research tested a theoretical model of employee adjustment during organizational change based on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) cognitive-phenomenological framework. The model hypothesized that psychological climate variables would act as coping resources and predict improved adjustment during change. Two variations of this model were tested using survey data from two different organizational samples: 779 public hospital employees and 877 public sector employees. Confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation analyses were conducted in order to evaluate the models. Results showed that employees whose perceptions of the organization and environment in which they were working (that is, psychological climate) were more positive, were more likely to appraise change favourably and report better adjustment in terms of higher job satisfaction, psychological well-being, and organizational commitment, and lower absenteeism and turnover intentions.