899 resultados para Classificació AMS::93 Systems Theory


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The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

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Discute-se a teoria da Reabilitação Psicossocial, proposta por Benedetto Saraceno, tomando como referencial a teoria de Sistemas Auto-Organizados, elaborada, entre outros, por Michel Debrun. Observa-se que a proposta de Saraceno satisfaz diversos aspectos do processo de auto-organização, porém não chega a se constituir plenamente como tal. A partir dessa reflexão, pode-se entender melhor algumas das dificuldades da prática de reabilitação na área de Saúde Mental.

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This paper discusses, within the prevaling Brazilian situation, the possibility of applying 'Causal Tree' (CT) method in investigating occupational accidents by safety personnel in the public health services and workers' unions. The method was developed during the seventies in France, for use by plant safety personnel. The authors used this method in Botucatu, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in order to investigate 40 serious occupational accidents that occurred in industrial plants during the second half of 1993, that had been registered by Social Security. In these cases, the predominance of situations in which the lack of safety measures were identified by inspection indicates that in most instances, the use of CT is unnecessary. However, the authors discuss its use by safety personnel from the public health services and workers' unions to investigate certain accidents to contribute to the knowledge base and help overcome the cultural based guilt which, in Brazil, has turned the victim into the person responsible for the accident.

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Forecasting, for obvious reasons, often become the most important goal to be achieved. For spatially extended systems (e.g. atmospheric system) where the local nonlinearities lead to the most unpredictable chaotic evolution, it is highly desirable to have a simple diagnostic tool to identify regions of predictable behaviour. In this paper, we discuss the use of the bred vector (BV) dimension, a recently introduced statistics, to identify the regimes where a finite time forecast is feasible. Using the tools from dynamical systems theory and Bayesian modelling, we show the finite time predictability in two-dimensional coupled map lattices in the regions of low BV dimension. © Indian Academy of Sciences.

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The development of linear erosion processes is directly related with the environment natural characteristics or with modifications that have occurred on them by the anthropic action. In this context, the present article has as a general objective to evaluate the dynamic of the linear erosion processes and their relations with the evolution of the land use and with the lito-pedologic characteristics of the Cavalheiro hydrographic basin - Analândia, SP. In order to reach such objective, maps of erosive features and land use of several settings were elaborated, besides cartographic representations of the geological and pedological data of the study area. The obtained data were analyzed starting from the principles that concern to the General Systems Theory. Such analysis evidenced the intrinsic bond of the development of linear erosion processes with the several forms of land use and with the natural attributes of the studied area. Therefore, the methodological procedure adopted in this research has been considered as fundamental tool to understand the linear erosion processes dynamic, making it possible to take data of extreme relevance for the planning of the use and occupation of the land.

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Agricultural and mining activities are directly related to changes in natural landscapes. From the perspective of anthropogenic geomorphology supported by general systems theory, this research has developed, in order to identify and analyze changes in the land use, mainly from agriculture and the exploitation of clay, and its implications in the hydro-geomorphological characteristics in the Santa Gertrudes Stream watershed (SP). This area is within the context of the Ceramic Pole Santa Gertrudes (SP), which besides its importance as a supplier of raw material, is characterized as the largest center of international reference in ceramic tiles on the American continent. For this purpose, we made land use and geomorphology maps of two scenarios, corresponding to the years 1962 and 2006, which allowed the identification of changes caused by human activities on the landforms of the area, such as the increase in area of parcels intended for mining activity, which went from 3.1% to occupy 19% of the catchment area of the respective period and that, among other changes, gave rise to new forms of relief as, for example, in levels of pit mining abrupt and smooth. The results indicate that the main features of representative of human changes in relief are represented for opening of large clay mining pits and agricultural activities, which intensified the denudation and sedimentation processes in the Santa Gertrudes Stream watershed.

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Pós-graduação em Artes - IA

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)