Validation of a regional Indonesian seas model based on a comparison between model and INSTANT transports

The International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) program measured currents through multiple Indonesian Seas passages simultaneously over a three-year period (from January 2004 to December 2006). The Indonesian Seas region has presented numerous challenges for numerical modelers - the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) must pass over shallow sills, into deep basins, and through narrow constrictions on its way from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. As an important region in the global climate puzzle, a number of models have been used to try and best simulate this throughflow. In an attempt to validate our model, we present a comparison between the transports calculated from our model and those calculated from the INSTANT in situ measurements at five passages within the Indonesian Seas (Labani Channel, Lifamatola Passage, Lombok Strait, Ornbai Strait, and Timor Passage). Our Princeton Ocean Model (POM) based regional Indonesian Seas model was originally developed to analyze the influence of bottom topography on the temperature and salinity distributions in the Indonesian seas region, to disclose the path of the South Pacific Water from the continuation of the New Guinea Coastal Current entering the region of interest up to the Lifamatola Passage, and to assess the role of the pressure head in driving the ITF and in determining its total transport. Previous studies found that this model reasonably represents the general long-term flow (seasons) through this region. The INSTANT transports were compared to the results of this regional model over multiple timescales. Overall trends are somewhat represented but changes on timescales shorter than seasonal (three months) and longer than annual were not considered in our model. Normal velocities through each passage during every season are plotted. Daily volume transports and transport-weighted temperature and salinity are plotted and seasonal averages are tabulated.

Photodissociation and chemistry of N2 in the circumstellar envelope of carbon-rich AGB stars

The envelopes of AGB stars are irradiated externally by ultraviolet photons; hence, the chemistry is sensitive to the photodissociation of N$_2$ and CO, which are major reservoirs of nitrogen and carbon, respectively. The photodissociation of N$_2$ has recently been quantified by laboratory and theoretical studies. Improvements have also been made for CO photodissociation. For the first time, we use accurate N$_2$ and CO photodissociation rates and shielding functions in a model of the circumstellar envelope of the carbon-rich AGB star, IRC +10216. We use a state-of-the-art chemical model of an AGB envelope, the latest CO and N$_2$ photodissociation data, and a new method for implementing molecular shielding functions in full spherical geometry with isotropic incident radiation. We compare computed column densities and radial distributions of molecules with observations. The transition of N$_2$ $\to$ N (also, CO $\to$ C $\to$ C$^+$) is shifted towards the outer envelope relative to previous models. This leads to different column densities and radial distributions of N-bearing species, especially those species whose formation/destruction processes largely depend on the availability of atomic or molecular nitrogen, for example, C$_n$N ($n$=1, 3, 5), C$_n$N$^-$ ($n$=1, 3, 5), HC$_n$N ($n$=1, 3, 5, 7, 9), H$_2$CN and CH$_2$CN. The chemistry of many species is directly or indirectly affected by the photodissociation of N$_2$ and CO, especially in the outer shell of AGB stars where photodissociation is important. Thus, it is important to include N$_2$ and CO shielding in astrochemical models of AGB envelopes and other irradiated environments. In general, while differences remain between our model of IRC +10216 and the observed molecular column densities, better agreement is found between the calculated and observed radii of peak abundance.

Chemistry and Distribution of Daughter Species in the Circumstellar Envelopes of O-Rich AGB Stars

Context. Thanks to the advent of Herschel and ALMA, new high-quality observations of molecules present in the circumstellar envelopes of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are being reported that reveal large differences from the existing chemical models. New molecular data and more comprehensive models of the chemistry in circumstellar envelopes are now available.
Aims: The aims are to determine and study the important formation and destruction pathways in the envelopes of O-rich AGB stars and to provide more reliable predictions of abundances, column densities, and radial distributions for potentially detectable species with physical conditions applicable to the envelope surrounding IK Tau.
Methods: We use a large gas-phase chemical model of an AGB envelope including the effects of CO and N2 self-shielding in a spherical geometry and a newly compiled list of inner-circumstellar envelope parent species derived from detailed modeling and observations. We trace the dominant chemistry in the expanding envelope and investigate the chemistry as a probe for the physics of the AGB phase by studying variations of abundances with mass-loss rates and expansion velocities.
Results: We find a pattern of daughter molecules forming from the photodissociation products of parent species with contributions from ion-neutral abstraction and dissociative recombination. The chemistry in the outer zones differs from that in traditional PDRs in that photoionization of daughter species plays a significant role. With the proper treatment of self-shielding, the N → N2 and C+→ CO transitions are shifted outward by factors of 7 and 2, respectively, compared with earlier models. An upper limit on the abundance of CH4 as a parent species of (≲2.5 × 10-6 with respect to H2) is found for IK Tau, and several potentially observable molecules with relatively simple chemical links to other parent species are determined. The assumed stellar mass-loss rate, in particular, has an impact on the calculated abundances of cations and the peak-abundance radius of both cations and neutrals: as the mass-loss rate increases, the peak abundance of cations generally decreases and the peak-abundance radius of all species moves outwards. The effects of varying the envelope expansion velocity and cosmic-ray ionization rate are not as significant.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Probability and statistics: selected problems

Probability and Statistics—Selected Problems is a unique book for senior undergraduate and graduate students to fast review basic materials in Probability and Statistics. Descriptive statistics are presented first, and probability is reviewed secondly. Discrete and continuous distributions are presented. Sample and estimation with hypothesis testing are presented in the last two chapters. The solutions for proposed excises are listed for readers to references.

The Teggiolo zone: a key to the Helvetic-Penninic connection (stratigraphy and tectonics in the Val Bavona, Ticino, Central Alps)

The Teggiolo zone is the sedimentary cover of the Antigorio nappe, one of the lowest tectonic units of the Penninic Central Alps. Detailed mapping, stratigraphic and structural analyses, and comparisons with less metamorphic series in several well-studied domains of the Alps, provide a new stratigraphic interpretation. The Teggiolo zone is comprised of several sedimentary cycles, separated by erosive surfaces and large stratigraphic gaps, which cover the time span from Triassic to Eocene. At Mid-Jurassic times it appears as an uplifted, partially emergent block, marking the southern limit of the main Helvetic basin (the Limiting South-Helvetic Rise LSHR). The main mass of the Teggiolo calcschists, whose base truncates the Triassic-Jurassic cycles and can erode the Antigorio basement, consists of fine-grained clastic sediments analogous to the deep-water flyschoid deposits of Late Cretaceous to Eocene age in the North-Penninic (or Valais s.l.) basins. Thus the Antigorio-Teggiolo domain occupies a crucial paleogeographic position, on the boundary between the Helvetic and Penninic realms: from Triassic to Early Cretaceous its affinity is with the Helvetic; at the end of Cretaceous it is incorporated into the North-Penninic basins. An unexpected result is the discovery of the important role played by complex formations of wildflysch type at the top of the Teggiolo zone. They contain blocks of various sizes. According to their nature, three different associations are distinguished that have specific vertical and lateral distributions. These blocks give clues to the existence of territories that have disappeared from the present-day level of observation and impose constraints on the kinematics of early folding and embryonic nappe emplacement. Tectonics produced several phases of superimposed folds and schistosities, more in the metasediments than in the gneissic basement. Older deformations that predate the amplification of the frontal hinge of the nappe generated the dominant schistosity and the km-wide Vanzèla isoclinal fold.

Foraging ecology and parental care of common terns (Sterna hirundo) nesting in Windermere Basin, Lake Ontario

The relationships among chick feeding, size and type of prey item, and foraging time away from the brood have not been well studied in seabirds. This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of foraging and chick-provisioning among 23 radio-tagged male common terns nesting at Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario during 1991 and 1992. Telemetry data were collected concurrently with behavioural observations from an elevated blind. Terns fitted with transmitters did not differ from controls with respect to either brood attendance, patterns of chick mortality, species and size distributions of prey delivered to offspring, or chick-provisioning rates. There was a clear separation of parental roles: males were primarily responsible for feeding chicks while females allocated more time to brood attendance. The prey species most commonly delivered to chicks by adults were rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and alewife (A/osa pseudoharengus), followed in importance by larval fish, emerald shiner (Notropis antherinoides), salmonids, and fathead minnows (Pimepha/es prome/as). The relative proportions of various fish speCies delivered to chicks by males differed over the course of each breeding season, and there was also much variability in species composition of prey between years. Sizes of prey delivered to chicks also differed between sampling periods. The modal size of fish brought to chicks during Peak 1991 was 1.5 bill lengths, while the majority of prey in Late 1991 were small larval fish. The reverse trend occurred in 1992 when small fish were delivered to chicks predominantly during the Peak nesting period. During periods when predominantly small fish were delivered to chicks, the foraging activity of radio-tagged males was concentrated within a two kilometer radius of the colony. The observed variation in prey composition and foraging locations during the study likely reflects temporal variation in the availability of prey in the vicinity of the colony. Males delivered fish to chicks at a constant rate, while females 4 increased their feeding frequency over the first six to ten brood days. The mean length of fish delivered to chicks by adults increased significantly with increasing chick age. As a group, within each nesting period, transmittered males either foraged predominantly in the same directional bearing (north during Peak 1991, south during Late 1992), or concentrated foraging activity in the immediate vicinity of the colony (Late 1991, Peak 1992). However, individual radio-tagged males exhibited unique and predictable foraging patterns, often favouring specific locations within these areas and differing in their secondary foraging patterns. Overall, the Lake Ontario shoreline between NCB Bay" (3.5 km south of colony) and the lift bridge canal (4 km north of colony) was the foraging area used most frequently by radiotagged males during the chick-rearing period. Foraging patterns of transmittered males at Windermere Basin are similar to patterns of peak-nesting common terns, but differ from those of late-nesters, at a nearby colony (Port Colborne, Lake Erie). Differences between the foraging patterns of late-nesting terns at these colonies likely reflect differences in annual patterns of fish availability between the two locations. No relationship was found between foraging proficiency of adults and survival of offspring. Stochastic factors, such as predation by black-crowned nightherons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and adverse weather conditions during the early stages of chick rearing, may be more important determinants of common tern breeding success than parental quality or fish availability.

Skewness risk and bond prices

Statistical evidence is reported that even outside disaster periods, agents face negative consumption skewness, as well as positive inflation skewness. Quantitative implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a pure exchange economy are derived. Key modeling assumptions are Epstein-Zin preferences for traders and asymmetric distributions for consumption and inflation innovations. The model is solved using a third-order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that skewness risk accounts for 6 to 7 percent of the risk premia depending on the bond maturity.

Localization and function of the endocannabinoid system throughout the retinogeniculate pathway of vervet monkeys

Le système endocannabinoïde (eCB) est présent dans le système nerveux central (SNC) de mammifères, incluant la rétine, et est responsable de la régulation de nombreux processus physiologiques. Bien que la présence du récepteur cannabinoïde de type 1 (CB1R) a bien été documenté dans la rétine de rongeurs et primates, il y a encore une controverse quant à la présence du récepteur cannabinoïde de type 2 (CB2R) au niveau du SNC. En utilisant la microscopie confocale, nous sommes les premiers à signaler les patrons d’expression du CB2R dans la rétine de singe. Nos résultats démontrent que le CB2R est exprimé exclusivement dans les cellules de Müller de la rétine du singe. En outre, nous avons comparé les différents patrons d’expression du système eCB dans la rétine de la souris, du toupaye, ainsi que du singe vervet et macaque. Nous rapportons que les distributions de CB1R, FAAH (fatty acid amid hydrolase), MAGL (monoacylglycerol lipase) et DAGLα (diacylglycerol lipase alpha) sont hautement conservées parmi ces espèces alors que CB2R et NAPE-PLD (N-acyl phosphatidylethanolamine phospholipase D) présentent différents profils d'expression. CB2R n'a pas été détecté dans les cellules neuronales de la rétine des primates. L’immunoréactivité de NAPE-PLD est présente dans les couches de la rétine de souris et toupayes, mais a été limitée à la couche des photorécepteurs des singes vervet et macaque. Pour étudier les corrélats neuronaux et le rôle de la signalisation du système eCB dans la rétine, nous avons établi un protocole standard pour l'électrorétinographie (ERG), puis enregistré la réponse ERG de la rétine après le blocage des récepteurs avec des antagonistes spécifiques pour CB1R (AM251) et CB2R (AM630). Comparé au témoin, dans des conditions photopiques, et à certaines intensités faibles du stimulus, le blocage de CB1R diminue l'amplitude de l'onde-b, alors qu’à des intensités plus élevées, le blocage de CB2R augmente l'amplitude des deux-ondes a et b. De plus, le blocage des récepteurs cannabinoïdes provoque une augmentation de la latence des deux ondes a et b. Dans des conditions d’adaptation à l'obscurité, le blocage de CB1R et CB2R réduit l’amplitudes de l'onde a seulement à des intensités plus élevées et réduit l’onde b à intensités plus faibles. Des augmentations significatives de latence ont été observées dans les deux cas. Ces résultats indiquent que les récepteurs CB1 et CB2 chez les primates non humains sont impliqués dans la fonction rétinienne conditions photopiques. En outre, nous avons évalué le profil d'expression du CB1R, de FAAH et de NAPE-PLD au-delà de la rétine dans le corps géniculé latéral des singes et nous rapportons pour la première fois que CB1R et FAAH sont exprimés davantage dans les couches magnocellulaires. La NAPE-PLD a été localisée à travers les couches magno- et parvocellulaires. Aucune de ces composantes n’est exprimée dans les couches koniocellulaires. Ces résultats nous aident à mieux comprendre les effets des cannabinoïdes sur le système visuel qui pourraient nous mener à trouver éventuellement de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques.

A Study on the Reversed Lack of Memory Property and its Generalizations

In this thesis, the concept of reversed lack of memory property and its generalizations is studied.We we generalize this property which involves operations different than the ”addition”. In particular an associative, binary operator ” * ” is considered. The univariate reversed lack of memory property is generalized using the binary operator and a class of probability distributions which include Type 3 extreme value, power function, reflected Weibull and negative Pareto distributions are characterized (Asha and Rejeesh (2009)). We also define the almost reversed lack of memory property and considered the distributions with reversed periodic hazard rate under the binary operation. Further, we give a bivariate extension of the generalized reversed lack of memory property and characterize a class of bivariate distributions which include the characterized extension (CE) model of Roy (2002a) apart from the bivariate reflected Weibull and power function distributions. We proved the equality of local proportionality of the reversed hazard rate and generalized reversed lack of memory property. Study of uncertainty is a subject of interest common to reliability, survival analysis, actuary, economics, business and many other fields. However, in many realistic situations, uncertainty is not necessarily related to the future but can also refer to the past. Recently, Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (2009) introduced a new measure of information called dynamic cumulative entropy. Dynamic cumulative entropy is suitable to measure information when uncertainty is related to the past, a dual concept of the cumulative residual entropy which relates to uncertainty of the future lifetime of a system. We redefine this measure in the whole real line and study its properties. We also discuss the implications of generalized reversed lack of memory property on dynamic cumulative entropy and past entropy.In this study, we extend the idea of reversed lack of memory property to the discrete set up. Here we investigate the discrete class of distributions characterized by the discrete reversed lack of memory property. The concept is extended to the bivariate case and bivariate distributions characterized by this property are also presented. The implication of this property on discrete reversed hazard rate, mean past life, and discrete past entropy are also investigated.

Tide And River Runoff Interactions In The Cochin Estuary

Hydrodynamic characteristics of an estuary resulting from interaction of tide and river runoff are important since problems regarding flood, salinity intrusion, water quality, ecosystem and sedimentation are ubiquitous. The present study focuses on such hydrodynamic aspects in the Cochin estuary. Most of the estuaries that come under the influence of Indian Summer Monsoon and for which the salinity is never in a steady state at any time of the year are generally shallow and convergent, i.e. the width decreases rapidly from mouth to head. In contrast, Cochin estuary is wider towards the upstream and has no typical river mouth, where the rivers are joining the estuary along the length of its channel .Adding to the complexity it has dual inlets and the tidal range is 1 m which is lower than other Indian estuaries along west coast. These typical physical features lead to its unique hydrodynamic characteristics. Therefore the thesis objectives are: I) to study the influence of river runoff on tidal propagation using observations and a numerical model ii) to study stratification and property distributions in Cochin estuary iii) to understand salinity distributions and flushing characteristics iv) to understand the influence of saltwater barrage on tides and salinity v) To evaluate several classification schemes for the estuary

Identification of models using failure rate and mean residual life of doubly truncated random variables

In this paper, we study the relationship between the failure rate and the mean residual life of doubly truncated random variables. Accordingly, we develop characterizations for exponential, Pareto 11 and beta distributions. Further, we generalize the identities for fire Pearson and the exponential family of distributions given respectively in Nair and Sankaran (1991) and Consul (1995). Applications of these measures in file context of lengthbiased models are also explored

Characterizations of some continuous distributions using partial moments

Inthis paper,we define partial moments for a univariate continuous random variable. A recurrence relationship for the Pearson curve using the partial moments is established. The interrelationship between the partial moments and other reliability measures such as failure rate, mean residual life function are proved. We also prove some characterization theorems using the partial moments in the context of length biased models and equilibrium distributions

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: The Finite Horizon Case

We analyze a finite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to find an inventory policy and a pricing strategy maximizing expected profit over the finite horizon. We show that when the demand model is additive, the profit-to-go functions are k-concave and hence an (s,S,p) policy is optimal. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period. For more general demand functions, i.e., multiplicative plus additive functions, we demonstrate that the profit-to-go function is not necessarily k-concave and an (s,S,p) policy is not necessarily optimal. We introduce a new concept, the symmetric k-concave functions and apply it to provide a characterization of the optimal policy.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.