Potential public health significance of faecal contamination and multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli and Salmonella serotypes in a lake in India

To assess the prevalence of faecal coliform bacteria and multiple drug resistance among Escherichia coli and Salmonella serotypes from Vembanadu Lake. Study design: Systematic microbiological testing. Methods: Monthly collection of water samples were made from ten stations on the southern and northern parts of a salt water regulator constructed in Vembanadu Lake in order to prevent incursion of seawater during certain periods of the year. Density of faecal colifrom bacteria was estimated. E. coli and Salmonella were isolated and their different serotypes were identified. Antibiotic resistance analysis of E. coli and Salmonella serotypes was done and the MAR index of individual isolates was calculated. Results: Density of faecal coliform bacteria ranged from mean MPN value 2900 -7100/100ml. Results showed multiple drug resistance pattern among the bacterial isolates. E. coli showed more than 50% resistance to amickacin, oxytetracycline, streptomycin, tetracycline and kanamycin while Salmonella showed high resistance to oxytetracycline, streptomycin, tetracycline and ampicillin. The MAR indexing of the isolates showed that they have originated from high risk source such as humans, poultry and dairy cows. Conclusions: The high density of faecal coliform bacteria and prevalence of multi drug resistant E. coli and Salmonella serotypes in the lake may pose severe public health risk through related water borne and food borne outbreaks

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Effects of transformation processes in 'jubraka' agroforestry systems of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, on nutrient fluxes

Intensification processes in homegardens of the Nuba Mountains, Sudan, raise concerns about strongly positive carbon (C) and nutrient balances which are expected to lead to substantial element losses from these agroecosystems, in particular via soil gaseous emissions. Therefore, this thesis aimed at the quantification of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) input and output fluxes with a special focus on soil gaseous losses, and the calculation of respective element balances. A further focus in this thesis was rainfall, a valuable resource for rain-fed agriculture in the Nuba Mountains. To minimize negative consequences of the high variability of rainfall, risk reducing mechanisms were developed by rain-fed farmers that may lose their efficacy in the course of climate change effects predicted for East Africa. Therefore, the second objective of this study was to examine possible changes in rainfall amounts during the last 60 years and to provide reliable risk and probability statements of rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance to rain-fed farmers in the Nuba Mountains. Soil gaseous emissions of C (in form of CO2) and N (in form of NH3 and N2O) of two traditional and two intensified homegardens were determined with a portable dynamic closed chamber system. For C gaseous emission rates reached their peak at the onset of the rainy season (2,325 g CO2-C ha-1 h-1 in an intensified garden type) and for N during the rainy season (16 g NH3-N ha-1 h-1 and 11.3 g N2O-N ha-1 h-1, in a traditional garden type). Data indicated cumulative annual emissions of 5,893 kg CO2-C ha-1, 37 kg NH3-N ha-1, and 16 kg N2O-N ha-1. For the assessment of the long-term productivity of the two types of homegardens and the identification of pathways of substantial element losses, a C and nutrient budget approach was used. In three traditional and three intensified homegardens observation plots were selected. The following variables were quantified on each plot between June and December in 2010: soil amendments, irrigation, biomass removal, symbiotic N2 fixation, C fixation by photosynthesis, atmospheric wet and dry deposition, leaching and soil gaseous emissions. Annual balances for C and nutrients amounted to -21 kg C ha-1, -70 kg N ha-1, 9 kg P ha-1 and -117 kg K ha-1 in intensified homegardens and to -1,722 kg C ha-1, -167 kg N ha-1, -9 kg P ha-1 and -74 kg K ha-1 in traditional homegardens. For the analysis of rainfall data, the INSTAT+ software allowed to aggregate long-term daily rainfall records from the Kadugli and Rashad weather stations into daily, monthly and annual intervals and to calculate rainfall-induced events of agricultural importance. Subsequently, these calculated values and events were checked for possible monotonic trends by Mann-Kendall tests. Over the period from 1970 to 2009, annual rainfall did not change significantly for either station. However, during this period an increase of low rainfall events coinciding with a decline in the number of medium daily rainfall events was observed in Rashad. Furthermore, the availability of daily rainfall data enabled frequency and conditional probability calculations that showed either no statistically significant changes or trends resulting only in minor changes of probabilities.

Implementación del modelo hidrológico de Témez para la evaluación de recursos hídricos con GRASS GIS: fase superficial y subterránea

Se presenta la implementación del modelo hidrológico distribuido de Témez sobre GRASS GIS. Este modelo se utiliza para la evaluación de recursos hídricos en régimen natural con paso mensual y para la totalidad del territorio español, tal como aparece en el Libro Blanco del Agua en España. A partir de las variables de entrada, precipitación y evapotranspiración potencial y los parámetros hidrológicos, el modelo obtiene los mapas de los distintos almacenamientos, humedad en el suelo y volumen de acuífero, y de las variables de salida del ciclo hidrológico, evapotranspiración y escorrentía total, obtenida esta última como suma de la escorrentía superficial y subterránea. El objetivo final del trabajo es la implementación de los componentes superficiales y subterráneos en el modelo hidrológico, desarrollando para ello un programa que hace funcional en GRASS GIS el modelo matemático en que se basa la evaluación de recursos hídricos

Sociodemographic and nutritional correlates of neurobehavioral development: a study of young children in a rural region of Ecuador

To identify and describe the sociodemographic and nutritional characteristics associated with neurobehavioral development among young children living in three communities in the northeastern Andean region of Cayambe-Tabacundo, Ecuador. Women in the study communities who had a child 3 to 61 months of age completed a questionnaire about maternal and child health and sociodemographic characteristics. The Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) was directly administered to 283 children by two trained interviewers. Growth measurements and a hemoglobin finger-prick blood test were obtained in 2003–2004. Prevalence of developmental delay was calculated, and associations between child development and maternal, child, and household characteristics were explored. High frequencies of developmental delay were observed. Children 3 to 23 months old displayed delay in gross motor skills (30.1%), and children 48 to 61 months old displayed delay in problem-solving skills (73.4%) and fine motor skills (28.1%). A high frequency of both anemia (60.4%) and stunting (53.4%) was observed for all age groups. Maternal educational level was positively associated with communication and problem-solving skills, and monthly household income was positively associated with communication, gross motor, and problem-solving skills. The results suggest a high prevalence of developmental delay and poor child health in this population. Child health status and the child’s environment may contribute to developmental delay in this region of Ecuador, but sociodemographic factors affecting opportunities for stimulation may also play a role. Research is needed to identify what is causing high percentages of neurobehavioral developmental delay in this region of Ecuador.

Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?

Several global quantities are computed from the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1958-2001 and explored for trends. These are discussed in the context of changes to the global observing system. Temperature, integrated water vapor (IWV), and kinetic energy are considered. The ERA40 global mean temperature in the lower troposphere has a trend of +0.11 K per decade over the period of 1979-2001, which is slightly higher than the MSU measurements, but within the estimated error limit. For the period 1958 2001 the warming trend is 0.14 K per decade but this is likely to be an artifact of changes in the observing system. When this is corrected for, the warming trend is reduced to 0.10 K per decade. The global trend in IWV for the period 1979-2001 is +0.36 mm per decade. This is about twice as high as the trend determined from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation assuming conservation of relative humidity. It is also larger than results from free climate model integrations driven by the same observed sea surface temperature as used in ERA40. It is suggested that the large trend in IWV does not represent a genuine climate trend but an artifact caused by changes in the global observing system such as the use of SSM/I and more satellite soundings in later years. Recent results are in good agreement with GPS measurements. The IWV trend for the period 1958-2001 is still higher but reduced to +0.16 mm per decade when corrected for changes in the observing systems. Total kinetic energy shows an increasing global trend. Results from data assimilation experiments strongly suggest that this trend is also incorrect and mainly caused by the huge changes in the global observing system in 1979. When this is corrected for, no significant change in global kinetic energy from 1958 onward can be found.

A new set of orthogonal patterns in weather and climate: Optimally interpolated patterns.

A new spectral-based approach is presented to find orthogonal patterns from gridded weather/climate data. The method is based on optimizing the interpolation error variance. The optimally interpolated patterns (OIP) are then given by the eigenvectors of the interpolation error covariance matrix, obtained using the cross-spectral matrix. The formulation of the approach is presented, and the application to low-dimension stochastic toy models and to various reanalyses datasets is performed. In particular, it is found that the lowest-frequency patterns correspond to largest eigenvalues, that is, variances, of the interpolation error matrix. The approach has been applied to the Northern Hemispheric (NH) and tropical sea level pressure (SLP) and to the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). Two main OIP patterns are found for the NH SLP representing respectively the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific pattern. The leading tropical SLP OIP represents the Southern Oscillation. For the Indian Ocean SST, the leading OIP pattern shows a tripole-like structure having one sign over the eastern and north- and southwestern parts and an opposite sign in the remaining parts of the basin. The pattern is also found to have a high lagged correlation with the Niño-3 index with 6-months lag.

Is the OECD acute worm toxicity test environmentally relevant? The effect of mineral form on calculated lead toxicity

In a series of experiments the toxicity of lead to worms in soil was determined following the draft OECD earthworm reproduction toxicity protocol except that lead was added as solid lead nitrate, carbonate and sulphide rather than as lead nitrate solution as would normally be the case. The compounds were added to the test soil to give lead concentrations of 625-12500 pg Pb g-1 of soil. Calculated toxicities of the lead decreased in the order nitrate > carbonate > sulphide, the same order as the decrease in the solubility of the metal compounds used. The 7-day LC50 (lethal concentration when 50% of the population is killed) for the nitrate was 5321 +/- 275 mug Pb g(-1) of soil and this did not change with time. The LC50 values for carbonate and sulphide could not be determined at the concentration ranges used. The only parameter sensitive enough to distinguish the toxicities of the three compounds was cocoon (egg) production. The EC50S for cocoon production (the concentration to produce a 50% reduction in cocoon production) were 993, 8604 and 10 246 mug Pb g(-1) of soil for lead nitrate, carbonate and sulphide, respectively. Standard toxicity tests need to take into account the form in which the contaminant is present in the soil to be of environmental relevance. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calculated rotational and rovibrational spectra of D2S and HDS

Rovibrational energy levels, transition frequencies, and linestrengths are computed variationally for the sulfur hydrides D2S and HDS, using ab initio potential energy and dipole surfaces. Wave-numbers for the pure rotational transitions agree to within 0.2 cm−1 of the experimental lines. For the fundamental vibrational transitions, the band origins for D2S are 860.4, 1900.6, and 1912.0 cm−1 for ν2, ν1, and ν3, respectively, compared with the corresponding experimental values of 855.4, 1896.4, and 1910.2 cm−1. For HDS, we compute ν2 to be 1039.4 cm−1, compared with the experimental value of 1032.7 cm−1. The relative merits of local and normal mode descriptions for the overtone stretching band origins are discussed. Our results confirm the local mode nature of the H2S, D2S, and HDS system.

Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE

Slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) is a measure of the degree to which the atmosphere is unstable to conditional symmetric instability (CSI). It has, until now, been defined by parcel theory in which the atmosphere is assumed to be nonevolving and balanced, that is, two-dimensional. When applying this two-dimensional theory to three-dimensional evolving flows, these assumptions can be interpreted as an implicit assumption that a timescale separation exists between a relatively rapid timescale for slantwise ascent and a slower timescale for the development of the system. An approximate extension of parcel theory to three dimensions is derived and it is shown that calculations of SCAPE based on the assumption of relatively rapid slantwise ascent can be qualitatively in error. For a case study example of a developing extratropical cyclone, SCAPE calculated along trajectories determined without assuming the existence of the timescale separation show large SCAPE values for parcels ascending from the warm sector and along the warm front. These parcels ascend into the cloud head within which there is some evidence consistent with the release of CSI from observational and model cross sections. This region of high SCAPE was not found for calculations along the relatively rapidly ascending trajectories determined by assuming the existence of the timescale separation.