A mathematical framework for new fault detection schemes in nonlinear stochastic continuous-time dynamical systems

n this work, a mathematical unifying framework for designing new fault detection schemes in nonlinear stochastic continuous-time dynamical systems is developed. These schemes are based on a stochastic process, called the residual, which reflects the system behavior and whose changes are to be detected. A quickest detection scheme for the residual is proposed, which is based on the computed likelihood ratios for time-varying statistical changes in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Several expressions are provided, depending on a priori knowledge of the fault, which can be employed in a proposed CUSUM-type approximated scheme. This general setting gathers different existing fault detection schemes within a unifying framework, and allows for the definition of new ones. A comparative simulation example illustrates the behavior of the proposed schemes.

Effect of a variable delay in delayed dynamical systems

We report numerical evidence of the effects of a periodic modulation in the delay time of a delayed dynamical system. By referring to a Mackey-Glass equation and by adding a modula- tion in the delay time, we describe how the solution of the system passes from being chaotic to shadow periodic states. We analyze this transition for both sinusoidal and sawtooth wave mod- ulations, and we give, in the latter case, the relationship between the period of the shadowed orbit and the amplitude of the modulation. Future goals and open questions are highlighted.

Fault isolation schemes for a class of continuous-time stochastic dynamical systems

In this paper a new method for fault isolation in a class of continuous-time stochastic dynamical systems is proposed. The method is framed in the context of model-based analytical redundancy, consisting in the generation of a residual signal by means of a diagnostic observer, for its posterior analysis. Once a fault has been detected, and assuming some basic a priori knowledge about the set of possible failures in the plant, the isolation task is then formulated as a type of on-line statistical classification problem. The proposed isolation scheme employs in parallel different hypotheses tests on a statistic of the residual signal, one test for each possible fault. This isolation method is characterized by deriving for the unidimensional case, a sufficient isolability condition as well as an upperbound of the probability of missed isolation. Simulation examples illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme.

New systems of management to improve the health and welfare of rabbits in farm conditions = Nuevos sistemas de cría y manejo para mejorar la salud y bienestar de conejos de granja

El objetivo general de esta Tesis Doctoral fue evaluar nuevos sistemas de alojamiento y cría de conejos de granja, estudiando tanto parámetros comportamentales (experimento 1) como productivos y reproductivos (experimento 3). Además, se evaluaron diferentes técnicas de muestreo con el fin de optimizar el tiempo empleado para el estudio del comportamiento animal (experimento 2). En el experimento 1, se estudió el comportamiento de conejas alojadas en dos tipos de jaulas (TJ), convencionales vs. alternativas con una plataforma elevada, en distintos estados fisiológicos (EF), lactantes y gestantes. Se observó el comportamiento de 12 conejas reproductoras con grabaciones de una duración de 24 h continuas. Independientemente del EF y TJ, las conejas pasaron gran parte de su tiempo sobre el reposapatas (57,7 %, de media). Sin embargo, debido al uso de la plataforma (23,0% del tiempo, de media), las conejas lactantes permanecieron un 36,6 % menos de tiempo (P<0,001) sobre el reposapatas y las gestantes un 27,0% menos (P<0,001) sobre el enrejillado en jaulas alternativas que en convencionales. En las jaulas alternativas, las conejas podían adoptar la postura “levantada”, sin embargo ésta fue observada solamente en conejas gestantes una media de 4,6 veces al día. Las conejas bebieron con mas frecuencia en jaulas convencionales que en alternativas (24,6 vs 19,1 veces al día; P<0,05). Se observó una mayor duración y frecuencia del comportamiento “interactuando con compañeras” en conejas gestantes alojadas en jaulas convencionales (276 s/d y 4,6 veces/d; P<0,05). La frecuencia de “interactuando con gazapos” fue menor en jaulas alternativas que en convencionales (2,4 vs 8,6 veces al día; P<0,01). La hora del día afectó al comportamiento de las conejas, teniendo un comportamiento menos activo durante las horas centrales del día. Durante las horas de oscuridad, las conejas estuvieron más inquietas realizando comportamientos como ‘encabritarse’ o amamantar, coincidiendo éstos en el tiempo en el cual las conejas pasaron más tiempo en la plataforma. Las conejas utilizaron frecuentemente la plataforma, independientemente del estado fisiológico. En la fase de lactación, las conejas utilizaron la plataforma para huir de los intentos de mamar por parte de los gazapos cuando éstas no estaban receptivas. El uso de la plataforma puede dar lugar a problemas higiénicos debidos tanto por la acumulación de heces sobre ella como por la caída de heces y orina sobre los animales que están en la parte inferior. La ausencia de estereotipias por parte de las conejas tanto en jaulas alternativas como en convencionales no sugiere una falta de bienestar debida al sistema de alojamiento. En el experimento 2, se compararon distintos métodos de observación simplificada con respecto un método de referencia usando grabaciones continuas de 24 h para la evaluación del comportamiento de conejas en distintos estados fisiológicos (gestantes y lactantes) alojadas en dos tipos de jaulas (convencionales y alternativas). Se analizaron un total de 576 h de grabaciones continuas de 24 h en 12 conejas reproductoras al final del periodo de lactación y en las mismas conejas después del destete. Los comportamientos observados se clasificaron en tres categorías independientes (localización en la jaula, postura y comportamientos funcionales). Se utilizaron grabaciones continuas de 24 h como método de referencia para validar otros cuatro métodos de observación simplificados, utilizando grabaciones de distinta duración y frecuencia a lo largo del día. Métodos regulares: corto y largo con 2.4 y 8 h de observación respectivamente, y métodos irregulares: corto y largo con 6 y 8 h de observación, respectivamente. Como resultado, se observó que independientemente del sistema de alojamiento, el mejor método para reducir el tiempo de observación necesario para evaluar el comportamiento de conejas reproductoras depende del tipo de variable a estudiar y del estado fisiológico de las conejas. En gestantes, los métodos irregulares no fueron adecuados para estimar comportamientos de larga duración tales como tumbada, sentada, descansando y acicalándose. Sin embargo, en ambos estados fisiológicos, los métodos regulares fueron precisos para los comportamientos de los grupos localización y postura y para comportamientos funcionales de larga duración. Por otro lado, los coeficientes de variación de los comportamientos poco frecuentes realizados principalmente durante el periodo de oscuridad fueron muy altos, y el método irregular largo obtuvo los menores errores de estimación para éstos comportamientos. En el experimento 3, se estudió el efecto de un uso combinado de lactaciones largas (hasta 46 días) con jaulas alternativas sobre los parámetros productivos y reproductivos de 104 conejas y sus camadas durante cinco ciclos reproductivos. La mitad de las conejas fueron alojadas en jaulas polivalentes convencionales (39 cm x 100 cm x 30 cm) y la otra mitad en jaulas polivalentes alternativas (39 cm x 100 cm x 60 cm), con una plataforma elevada. Dentro de cada grupo de alojamiento, la mitad de las conejas se destetaron a 32 días y la otra mitad a 46 días tras el parto. Las lactaciones más largas afectaron negativamente al peso (P<0,001), contenido en grasa y energía (P<0,05) de las conejas al final del periodo de lactación, pero éste efecto disminuyó con el número de partos. La fertilidad, prolificidad y la mortalidad de las conejas no fue afectada por la duración de la lactación. El destete tardío dio lugar a un mayor tamaño y peso de la camada al final del periodo de crecimiento (8,9 y 11,3 %, respectivamente) y a un menor índice de conversión por jaula durante el todo el periodo experimental (13,5 %) con respecto al destete convencional (P<0,001). Éstos resultados fueron paralelos a la menor mortalidad global (12,6 vs 17,6 %; P<0,05) observada en gazapos con destete tardío. Las diferencias en los parámetros productivos con las distintas edades al destete sólo fueron observadas en los ciclos con peor estado sanitario (tercer y quinto ciclo), en los cuales el destete tardío redujo la mortalidad. El tipo de jaula no afectó al peso de la coneja, condición corporal, mortalidad, fertilidad ni tamaño de camada durante los cinco primeros ciclos reproductivos. Sin embargo, el peso de la camada y el índice de conversión a los 21 días de edad fueron 4,2% mayor (P<0,001) y 5,0% menor (P<0,005) en animales alojados en jaulas alternativas que en jaulas convencionales. A día 59 las jaulas alternativas dieron lugar a camadas más pesadas (P<0,01); sin embargo, éste efecto fue influenciado por la densidad alcanzada en cada ciclo, ya que cuando la densidad de los animales fue menor que 40kg/m2 (tercer y quinto ciclo), el efecto del tipo de jaula sobre el peso de la camada no fue significativo. De los resultados obtenidos se puede concluir que el uso combinado de lactaciones más largas y jaulas con mayor superficie disponible con una plataforma elevada podría ser una alternativa para mejorar el bienestar animal en determinadas situaciones productivas. ABSTRACT The general aim of this PhD Thesis was to evaluate new housing and husbandry systems of farmed rabbits, studying behavioral (experiment 1), productive and reproductive (experiment 3) parameters. Moreover, different sampling techniques were evaluated in order to optimize the assessment of rabbit behaviour (experiment 2). In experiment 1, the behaviour of rabbit does housed in two different types of cage (TC), conventional vs. alternative with an elevated platform, at different physiological stages (PS), lactation and gestation was to study. Behavioural observations were carried out on 12 commercial rabbit does using continuous 24 hour video recording. Independently of PS and TC, rabbit does spent most of their time on foot mats (57.7 %, as average). However, due to the use of platforms (23.0% of time, as average), lactating does spent 36.6% less time (P<0.001) on foot mats and gestating does spent 27.0% less (P<0.001) time on wire mesh in alternative cages than in conventional cages. Alternative cages allowed for standing posture but this behaviour was only observed in gestating does (4.6 times a day, as average). Frequency of drinking was higher in conventional than in alternative cages (24.6 vs. 19.1 times a day; P<0.05). Gestating does housed in conventional cages reached the highest duration and frequency of interacting with neighbours (276 s/d and 4.6 times/d; P<0.05). The frequency of interacting with kits was lower in alternative than in conventional cages (2.4 vs. 8.6 times a day; P<0.01). Does’ behaviour was influenced by hour of day, being less active at the midday hours. During dark hours rabbit does more frequently performed restless behaviour such as hyperactivity or nursing, matching the time at which rabbit does spent more time on the platform. The platform was frequently used by rabbit does, independent of their physiological state, and during late lactation phase, when mothers were not receptive to nursing, does housed in alternative cages used the platform as a mean to flee from kids trying to suckle. The use of the platform might lead to hygienic problems due to retained faeces on the platform and faeces and urine falling onto animals located in the lower part of the cage. Stereotypies were not observed in any housing system, therefore conventional cages do not suggest lack of animal welfare. In experiment 2, it was compared the results of different simplified sampling methods of behavioural data with respect to reference records of 24-h in order to assess rabbit does behaviours at different physiological stages (gestation and lactation) in animals housed in two types of cages (conventional and alternative). A total of 576 h of continuous video of 12 rabbit does at the end of lactation and on the same females after weaning were analysed. The behavioural observations were studied using three independent categories of classification (location in the cage, posture and functional behaviours). Continuous behavioural recordings of 24 h were considered as the reference method to validate another 4 sampling methods of data collection by aggregated video recordings of different frequency and duration (regular short and long methods with 2.4 and 8 h of observation respectively, and irregular short and long methods with 6 and 8 h of observation, respectively). The current results showed that, independently of housing system, the best method to reduce the total observation time required to assess rabbit does behaviour depends on the trait studied and physiological stage of does. In gestating does, irregular methods were not suitable to estimate behaviours of long duration such as lying, sitting, resting and grooming. However, in both physiological stages, regular methods were accurate for location behaviours, postures and functional behaviours of long duration. Instead, for the study of infrequent behaviours performed mainly during dark period, where coefficients of variation were high, the irregular long method led to the lowest mean estimation errors. In experiment 3, the effects of the combined use of long lactation periods (46 days) with alternative cages on the reproductive and growth performance of 104 rabbit does and their litters during five consecutive reproductive cycles were studied. Half of does were housed in conventional polyvalent cages (39 cm x 100 cm x 30 cm) and the other half in alternative polyvalent cages (39 cm x 100 cm x 60 cm), with a raised platform. Half of the rabbit does in each type of cages were weaned at 32 and the other half at 46 days after parturition. Longer lactations affected negatively to body weight (P<0.001), fat and energy content (P<0.05) of rabbit does at the end of the lactation period, but this effect decreased with the number of parturitions. Fertility, prolificacy and doe mortality were not affected by lactation length. Late weaning led to higher litter size (by 8.9 %) and litter weight (by 11.3 %) at the end of growing period and lower feed conversion ratio per cage during the overall experimental period (13.5 %) than standard weaning (P<0.001). These results were parallels to a lower mortality (12.6 vs 17.6 %; P<0.05) of young rabbit weaned later during the overall experimental period. Differences in performances at different weaning ages were only observed during cycles with worst health status (third and fifth cycles) in which late weaning decreased mortality. Type of cage did not affect doe body weight and body condition, mortality, fertility, prolificacy and litter size during the five firsts reproductive cycles. Nevertheless, at day 21 litter weight and feed conversion ratio were 4.2 % higher (P<0.001) and 5.0 % lower (P<0.005) in animals housed in alternative than in conventional cages. Alternative cages also led to heavier litters at 59 days (P<0.01); however, this effect was influenced by density reached in each cycle, as when the density of animals was lower than 40 kg/m2 (cycles three and five), the difference of litter weight between alternative and conventional cages was not significant. From the results obtained it can be concluded that the combined use of longer lactations and cages with higher available surface with a raised platform could be an alternative to improve animal welfare in some productive situations.

Transition from time-continuous systems to discrete mappings

Detailed transport studies in plasmas require the solution of the time evolution of many different initial positions of test particles in the phase space of the systems to be investigated. To reduce this amount of numerical work, one would like to replace the integration of the time-continues system with a mapping.

Analysis of extended range variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs in systems using Nyquist-WDM 100/200G PM-QPSK/16QAM

We use the GN-model to assess Nyquist-WDM 100/200Gbit/s PM-QPSK/16QAM signal reach on low loss, large core area fibre using extended range, variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs. 5000/1500km transmission is possible over a wide range of amplifier spans. © OSA 2014.

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Mathematical methods for the configuration of transportation systems with a focus on continuous and modular matrix conveyors

The lack of flexibility in logistic systems currently on the market leads to the development of new innovative transportation systems. In order to find the optimal configuration of such a system depending on the current goal functions, for example minimization of transport times and maximization of the throughput, various mathematical methods of multi-criteria optimization are applicable. In this work, the concept of a complex transportation system is presented. Furthermore, the question of finding the optimal configuration of such a system through mathematical methods of optimization is considered.

User Behavioral Modeling of Web-based Systems for Continuous User Authentication

Authentication plays an important role in how we interact with computers, mobile devices, the web, etc. The idea of authentication is to uniquely identify a user before granting access to system privileges. For example, in recent years more corporate information and applications have been accessible via the Internet and Intranet. Many employees are working from remote locations and need access to secure corporate files. During this time, it is possible for malicious or unauthorized users to gain access to the system. For this reason, it is logical to have some mechanism in place to detect whether the logged-in user is the same user in control of the user's session. Therefore, highly secure authentication methods must be used. We posit that each of us is unique in our use of computer systems. It is this uniqueness that is leveraged to "continuously authenticate users" while they use web software. To monitor user behavior, n-gram models are used to capture user interactions with web-based software. This statistical language model essentially captures sequences and sub-sequences of user actions, their orderings, and temporal relationships that make them unique by providing a model of how each user typically behaves. Users are then continuously monitored during software operations. Large deviations from "normal behavior" can possibly indicate malicious or unintended behavior. This approach is implemented in a system called Intruder Detector (ID) that models user actions as embodied in web logs generated in response to a user's actions. User identification through web logs is cost-effective and non-intrusive. We perform experiments on a large fielded system with web logs of approximately 4000 users. For these experiments, we use two classification techniques; binary and multi-class classification. We evaluate model-specific differences of user behavior based on coarse-grain (i.e., role) and fine-grain (i.e., individual) analysis. A specific set of metrics are used to provide valuable insight into how each model performs. Intruder Detector achieves accurate results when identifying legitimate users and user types. This tool is also able to detect outliers in role-based user behavior with optimal performance. In addition to web applications, this continuous monitoring technique can be used with other user-based systems such as mobile devices and the analysis of network traffic.

Exploring complex chemical systems: insights from mass spectrometry, electrochemistry and continuous cell culture

The work presented herein covers a broad range of research topics and so, in the interest of clarity, has been presented in a portfolio format. Accordingly, each chapter consists of its own introductory material prior to presentation of the key results garnered, this is then proceeded by a short discussion on their significance. In the first chapter, a methodology to facilitate the resolution and qualitative assessment of very large inorganic polyoxometalates was designed and implemented employing ion-mobility mass spectrometry. Furthermore, the potential of this technique for ‘mapping’ the conformational space occupied by this class of materials was demonstrated. These claims are then substantiated by the development of a tuneable, polyoxometalate-based calibration protocol that provided the necessary platform for quantitative assessments of similarly large, but unknown, polyoxometalate species. In addition, whilst addressing a major limitation of travelling wave ion mobility, this result also highlighted the potential of this technique for solution-phase cluster discovery. The second chapter reports on the application of a biophotovoltaic electrochemical cell for characterising the electrogenic activity inherent to a number of mutant Synechocystis strains. The intention was to determine the key components in the photosynthetic electron transport chain responsible for extracellular electron transfer. This would help to address the significant lack of mechanistic understanding in this field. Finally, in the third chapter, the design and fabrication of a low-cost, highly modular, continuous cell culture system is presented. To demonstrate the advantages and suitability of this platform for experimental evolution investigations, an exploration into the photophysiological response to gradual iron limitation, in both the ancestral wild type and a randomly generated mutant library population, was undertaken. Furthermore, coupling random mutagenesis to continuous culture in this way is shown to constitute a novel source of genetic variation that is open to further investigation.

RESULTADOS DO 13º CONTECSI USP – CONGRESSO INTERNACIONAL DE GESTÃO DA TECNOLOGIA E SISTEMAS DE INFORMAÇÃO; 36th WCARS – WORLD CONTINUOUS AUDITING AND REPORTING SYSTEMS SYMPOSIUM; 2º TOI ECA USP

In this document, we wish to describe statistics, data and the importance of the 13th CONTECSI – International Conference on Information Systems and Technology Management, which took place in the University of São Paulo, from June 1st through 3rd and was organized by TECSI/EAC/FEA/USP/ECA/POLI. This report presents statistics of the 13th CONTECSI, Goals and Objectives, Program, Plenary Sessions, Doctoral Consortium, Parallel Sessions, Honorable Mentions and Committees. We would like to point out the huge importance of the financial aid given by CAPES, CNPq, FAPESP, as well as the support of FEA USP, POLI USP, ECA USP, ANPAD, AIS, ISACA, UNINOVE, Mackenzie, Universidade do Porto, Rutgers School/USA, São Paulo Convention Bureau and CCINT-FEA-USP.

Using SPL to Develop AAL Systems Based on Self-adaptive Agents

Abstract One of the most important challenges of this decade is the Internet of Things (IoT) that pursues the integration of real-world objects in Internet. One of the key areas of the IoT is the Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) systems, which should be able to react to variable and continuous changes while ensuring their acceptance and adoption by users. This means that AAL systems need to work as self-adaptive systems. The autonomy property inherent to software agents, makes them a suitable choice for developing self-adaptive systems. However, agents lack the mechanisms to deal with the variability present in the IoT domain with regard to devices and network technologies. To overcome this limitation we have already proposed a Software Product Line (SPL) process for the development of self-adaptive agents in the IoT. Here we analyze the challenges that poses the development of self-adaptive AAL systems based on agents. To do so, we focus on the domain and application engineering of the self-adaptation concern of our SPL process. In addition, we provide a validation of our development process for AAL systems.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.