High constant incidence of second primary colorectal cancer.

Patients who had a colorectal cancer have a 1.5- to 2-fold excess risk of a second colorectal cancer as compared to the general population, the excess being higher at younger age at diagnosis. To further investigate the risk and the age-relation of the incidence of second primary colorectal cancer, we considered 9,389 first colon and rectal cancers registered in the Vaud Cancer Registry, Switzerland, between 1974 and 2008, and followed-up to the end of 2008 for a total of 44,113 person-years. There were 136 second colorectal cancers versus 90.5 expected, corresponding to a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.5 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.3-1.8). The SIRs were not heterogeneous between men and women, and in strata of calendar year at diagnosis, duration of follow-up, and subsite. However, the SIR was 7.5 (95% CI 4.2-12.4) for subjects diagnosed below age 50 and declined thereafter to reach 1.0 (95% CI 0.6-1.6) at age 80 or over. Consequently, the incidence of second primary colorectal cancer was stable, and exceedingly high, around 300-400/100,000 between age 30-39 and 70 or over. This age pattern is consistent with the existence of a single mutational event in a population of highly susceptible individuals.

Josep Aragay, el noucentista constant

Josep Aragay i Blanchar (Barcelona, 1889 – Breda, 1973) ha estat un personatge clau dins l’art català contemporani i un dels més rellevants del panorama cultural del noucentisme. Aragay va ser dibuixant, gravador, pintor i ceramista, però també fou poeta, professor i polític, i va exercir com a crític, polemista i teòric de l’art

A database to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

In the context of recent attempts to redefine the 'skin notation' concept, a position paper summarizing an international workshop on the topic stated that the skin notation should be a hazard indicator related to the degree of toxicity and the potential for transdermal exposure of a chemical. Within the framework of developing a web-based tool integrating this concept, we constructed a database of 7101 agents for which a percutaneous permeation constant can be estimated (using molecular weight and octanol-water partition constant), and for which at least one of the following toxicity indices could be retrieved: Inhalation occupational exposure limit (n=644), Oral lethal dose 50 (LD50, n=6708), cutaneous LD50 (n=1801), Oral no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL, n=1600), and cutaneous NOAEL (n=187). Data sources included the Registry of toxic effects of chemical substances (RTECS, MDL information systems, Inc.), PHYSPROP (Syracuse Research Corp.) and safety cards from the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS). A hazard index, which corresponds to the product of exposure duration and skin surface exposed that would yield an internal dose equal to a toxic reference dose was calculated. This presentation provides a descriptive summary of the database, correlations between toxicity indices, and an example of how the web tool will help industrial hygienist decide on the possibility of a dermal risk using the hazard index.

25 years of movement monitoring on the south peak of Turtle mountain: Understanding the hazard

En 1981, le gouvernement de l'Alberta a amélioré la surveillance de la pointe sud « South Peak » de la montagne Turtle, sur la frontière sud du glissement Frank de 1903. Le programme de surveillance vise à comprendre les taux de déformation des fissures larges et profondes sur « South Peak », et à prédire une seconde avalanche rocheuse sur la montagne. Le programme de surveillance consiste à installer un complément de points statiques et de stations suivies à distance, qui sont mesurés périodiquement. Des données climatiques, microsismiques et de déformation sont recueillies automatiquement à intervalles journaliers, et sont archivées. À la fin des années 1980, le financement pour le développement du programme de surveillance a cessé et quelques installations se sont détériorées. Entre mai 2004 et septembre 2006, des lectures sur les points de surveillance encore fonctionnels ont été compilées et interprétées. De plus, les lectures prélevées auparavant ont été réinterprétées à partir des connaissances récentes sur les modèles de mouvement à court terme et les influences climatiques. Ces observations ont été comparées à des récentes observations aériennes d'un modèle digital d'élévation, provenant de « light detection and ranging (LiDAR) », et des photos de terrain, afin d'estimer plus précisément les taux, l'étendue et la distribution des mouvements pour les derniers 25 ans.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

MRS glucose mapping and PET joining forces: re-evaluation of the lumped constant in the rat brain under isoflurane anaesthesia.

Although numerous positron emission tomography (PET) studies with (18) F-fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG) have reported quantitative results on cerebral glucose kinetics and consumption, there is a large variation between the absolute values found in the literature. One of the underlying causes is the inconsistent use of the lumped constants (LCs), the derivation of which is often based on multiple assumptions that render absolute numbers imprecise and errors hard to quantify. We combined a kinetic FDG-PET study with magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) of glucose dynamics in Sprague-Dawley rats to obtain a more comprehensive view of brain glucose kinetics and determine a reliable value for the LC under isoflurane anaesthesia. Maps of Tmax /CMRglc derived from MRSI data and Tmax determined from PET kinetic modelling allowed to obtain an LC-independent CMRglc . The LC was estimated to range from 0.33 ± 0.07 in retrosplenial cortex to 0.44 ± 0.05 in hippocampus, yielding CMRglc between 62 ± 14 and 54 ± 11 μmol/min/100 g, respectively. These newly determined LCs for four distinct areas in the rat brain under isoflurane anaesthesia provide means of comparing the growing amount of FDG-PET data available from translational studies.