Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments

For six years, the global economy has been driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Liquidity has flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge in credit-fuelled retail spending. Thus the effective ending of the Fed’s third round of asset purchases (QE3) at the end of October represents both a watershed and the beginning of a new stage in the world economy. The end of asset-purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, with China’s economy slowing, the Euro zone struggling to avoid a recession and the Japanese economy already in recession. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. An appreciated dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, thereby creating pressure for sellers to lower their prices. Latin American markets ended the third quarter of 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. In this changing external context, there are many signs that a slowdown in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) financial markets, particularly debt markets, which have been breaking issuance records for the past six years, may slowdown from now on. Commodity prices – including those of oil, base metals and some goods – are in a prolonged slump. The Bloomberg commodity price index, a benchmark of commodity investments, has fallen to a five-year low as China’s economy slows down, and with it the demand for commodities. Investment into the LAC region has decelerated, in large part because of a deceleration of mining investments. Latin American currencies have suffered depreciations, as current account deficits have widening for a number of countries. And LAC companies, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds may now struggle to service their debt. In October, credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded the bonds of Brazil’s Petrobras to tow notches above speculative grade because of the impact of falling oil prices and the weaker real on its debt. Growth prospects look brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region. The Institute of International Finance expects the strengthening of the dollar to have a divergent impact across the region, however, depending on trade and financial linkages. The Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, October 2, 2014. A stronger dollar lifts U.S. purchasing power, supporting exports, growth and capital inflows in countries with close trade links to the U.S. economy. However, rising dollar financing costs will increase pressure on countries with weak external positions. Given the effects of falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, some companies in the region, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds, may now struggle to service their debts. Prospects of Fed rate hikes resulting in tighter global liquidity amid the rapid rise in the corporate external bond stock has indeed raised concerns over some companies. However, there is still a shortage of bonds at a global level and the region still enjoys good economic policy management for the most part, so LAC debt markets may continue to enjoy momentum despite occasional bursts of high volatility – even if not at the record levels of recent years.

Google e infoespoliação: internet, informação e acumulação de capital

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

Trabalho e trabalhadores da pesca industrial no Pará face à metamorfose do capital

O mundo do trabalho passa por grandes transformações, as quais englobam novas tecnologias e formas de organização dos fatores produtivos no processo de produção de mercadorias. Novos modelos de organização do trabalho têm surgido e se mesclado com as práticas fordistas, o que tem influenciado diretamente sobre a utilização da mão-de-obra no processo produtivo. Neste contexto, este estudo procurou analisar de que maneira as práticas do processo de reestruturação produtiva estão acontecendo em um setor de atividade: o da pesca industrial, levando em consideração as particularidades do desenvolvimento dessa atividade extrativa, da forma de estruturação das empresas que compõem este setor para se manter no mercado e/ou ganhar novos mercados e, a maneira de inserção dos trabalhadores nas atividades de captura e processamento da produção pescada. A análise foi realizada entre as empresas que constituem o parque industrial pesqueiro do Distrito de Icoraci, que concentra a maior parcela da pesca industrial no Estado do Pará, estudando de que forma as estratégias adotadas pelas indústrias processadoras e microempresas de captura, diante das mudanças no mercado consumidor e da diminuição dos principais recursos explorados, têm repercutido sobre os trabalhadores ocupados nas atividades de captura e processamento.

Cultural capital and smoking in young adults: applying new indicators to explore social inequalities in health behaviour.

BACKGROUND Associations between social status and health behaviours are well documented, but the mechanisms involved are less understood. Cultural capital theory may contribute to a better understanding by expanding the scope of inequality indicators to include individuals' knowledge, skills, beliefs and material goods to examine how these indicators impact individuals' health lifestyles. We explore the structure and applicability of a set of cultural capital indicators in the empirical exploration of smoking behaviour among young male adults. METHODS We analysed data from the Swiss Federal Survey of Adolescents (CH-X) 2010-11 panel of young Swiss males (n = 10 736). A set of nine theoretically relevant variables (including incorporated, institutionalized and objectified cultural capital) were investigated using exploratory factor analysis. Regression models were run to observe the association between factor scores and smoking outcomes. Outcome measures consisted of daily smoking status and the number of cigarettes smoked by daily smokers. RESULTS Cultural capital indicators aggregated in a three-factor solution representing 'health values', 'education and knowledge' and 'family resources'. Each factor score predicted the smoking outcomes. In young males, scoring low on health values, education and knowledge and family resources was associated with a higher risk of being a daily smoker and of smoking more cigarettes daily. CONCLUSION Cultural capital measures that include, but go beyond, educational attainment can improve prediction models of smoking in young male adults. New measures of cultural capital may thus contribute to our understanding of the social status-based resources that individuals can use towards health behaviours.

Disposiciones espaciales y valorización del capital. El caso de Nordelta

Asistimos a la ampliación de "...una lógica estrictamente capitalista en el desarrollo metropolitano, otorgando a la plusvalía urbana el rango de criterio urbanístico básico" (de Mattos, 2002:1). El gobierno del Estado se reemplaza por la gobernancia y el sector privado revaloriza su rol como constructor y decisor, el Estado se repliega y el capital encuentra nuevos nichos para valorizarse. La redefinición normativa y la gestión privada alteran la propiedad constitutiva de la ciudad como valor de uso complejo (Topalov, 1979). El capital aprende a valorizarse adquiriendo un control parcial sobre derechos, servicios y bienes públicos, y produciendo elementos urbanos que antes le resultaban irreproducibles. Así, la planificación de la ciudad y la comercialización de un nuevo estilo de vida para los sectores privilegiados deviene en una nueva forma de valorización del capital. ¿Pueden los agentes inmobiliarios por sí solos crear mundos de la vida (Habermas, 1987), en su doble concepción de espacios de sociabilidad y horizonte de apreciación, y asegurarse consumidores? El megaemprendimiento toma cuerpo en los estilos de vida de sus habitantes; una metamorfosis sufrida en sus disposiciones y competencias espaciales reorganiza el sentido de sus prácticas y representaciones territoriales. Los habitus (Bourdieu, 1997) se conforman junto a la nueva espacialidad como estructura estructurada por emprendimientos como Nordelta y como estructura estructurante de los nuevos objetos urbanos. Es decir, los habitus no resultan de la impresión mecánica de las estructuras sociales capitalistas sino que se constituyen en un complejo proceso irreducible a las dicotomías entre objetivismo-subjetivismo, acción-estructura, etc. Las disposiciones y competencias espaciales pueden pensarse como la articulación del par dialéctico que presenta Santos (1996) al referirse al espacio geográfico como un conjunto de sistemas de objetos y sistemas de acciones, considerados como el contexto único en el que se realiza la historia.

Disposiciones espaciales y valorización del capital. El caso de Nordelta

Asistimos a la ampliación de "...una lógica estrictamente capitalista en el desarrollo metropolitano, otorgando a la plusvalía urbana el rango de criterio urbanístico básico" (de Mattos, 2002:1). El gobierno del Estado se reemplaza por la gobernancia y el sector privado revaloriza su rol como constructor y decisor, el Estado se repliega y el capital encuentra nuevos nichos para valorizarse. La redefinición normativa y la gestión privada alteran la propiedad constitutiva de la ciudad como valor de uso complejo (Topalov, 1979). El capital aprende a valorizarse adquiriendo un control parcial sobre derechos, servicios y bienes públicos, y produciendo elementos urbanos que antes le resultaban irreproducibles. Así, la planificación de la ciudad y la comercialización de un nuevo estilo de vida para los sectores privilegiados deviene en una nueva forma de valorización del capital. ¿Pueden los agentes inmobiliarios por sí solos crear mundos de la vida (Habermas, 1987), en su doble concepción de espacios de sociabilidad y horizonte de apreciación, y asegurarse consumidores? El megaemprendimiento toma cuerpo en los estilos de vida de sus habitantes; una metamorfosis sufrida en sus disposiciones y competencias espaciales reorganiza el sentido de sus prácticas y representaciones territoriales. Los habitus (Bourdieu, 1997) se conforman junto a la nueva espacialidad como estructura estructurada por emprendimientos como Nordelta y como estructura estructurante de los nuevos objetos urbanos. Es decir, los habitus no resultan de la impresión mecánica de las estructuras sociales capitalistas sino que se constituyen en un complejo proceso irreducible a las dicotomías entre objetivismo-subjetivismo, acción-estructura, etc. Las disposiciones y competencias espaciales pueden pensarse como la articulación del par dialéctico que presenta Santos (1996) al referirse al espacio geográfico como un conjunto de sistemas de objetos y sistemas de acciones, considerados como el contexto único en el que se realiza la historia.

Disposiciones espaciales y valorización del capital. El caso de Nordelta

Asistimos a la ampliación de "...una lógica estrictamente capitalista en el desarrollo metropolitano, otorgando a la plusvalía urbana el rango de criterio urbanístico básico" (de Mattos, 2002:1). El gobierno del Estado se reemplaza por la gobernancia y el sector privado revaloriza su rol como constructor y decisor, el Estado se repliega y el capital encuentra nuevos nichos para valorizarse. La redefinición normativa y la gestión privada alteran la propiedad constitutiva de la ciudad como valor de uso complejo (Topalov, 1979). El capital aprende a valorizarse adquiriendo un control parcial sobre derechos, servicios y bienes públicos, y produciendo elementos urbanos que antes le resultaban irreproducibles. Así, la planificación de la ciudad y la comercialización de un nuevo estilo de vida para los sectores privilegiados deviene en una nueva forma de valorización del capital. ¿Pueden los agentes inmobiliarios por sí solos crear mundos de la vida (Habermas, 1987), en su doble concepción de espacios de sociabilidad y horizonte de apreciación, y asegurarse consumidores? El megaemprendimiento toma cuerpo en los estilos de vida de sus habitantes; una metamorfosis sufrida en sus disposiciones y competencias espaciales reorganiza el sentido de sus prácticas y representaciones territoriales. Los habitus (Bourdieu, 1997) se conforman junto a la nueva espacialidad como estructura estructurada por emprendimientos como Nordelta y como estructura estructurante de los nuevos objetos urbanos. Es decir, los habitus no resultan de la impresión mecánica de las estructuras sociales capitalistas sino que se constituyen en un complejo proceso irreducible a las dicotomías entre objetivismo-subjetivismo, acción-estructura, etc. Las disposiciones y competencias espaciales pueden pensarse como la articulación del par dialéctico que presenta Santos (1996) al referirse al espacio geográfico como un conjunto de sistemas de objetos y sistemas de acciones, considerados como el contexto único en el que se realiza la historia.

Domestic, vertical, and horizontal multinationals : a general equilibrium approach using the "knowledge capital model"

One of the key factors behind the growth in global trade in recent decades is an increase in intermediate input as a result of the development of vertical production networks (Feensta, 1998). It is widely recognized that the formation of production networks is due to the expansion of multinational enterprises' (MNEs) activities. MNEs have been differentiated into two types according to their production structure: horizontal and vertical foreign direct investment (FDI). In this paper, we extend the model presented by Zhang and Markusen (1999) to include horizontal and vertical FDI in a model with traded intermediates, using numerical general equilibrium analysis. The simulation results show that horizontal MNEs are more likely to exist when countries are similar in size and in relative factor endowments. Vertical MNEs are more likely to exist when countries differ in relative factor endowments, and trade costs are positive. From the results of the simulation, lower trade costs of final goods and differences in factor intensity are conditions for attracting vertical MNEs.

Modelo para evaluar el capital social en programas de cooperación para el desarrollo

Los programas de desarrollo regional promovidos por los gobiernos nacionales y las agencias multilaterales, como el Banco Mundial y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), se orientan a las políticas públicas de suministro de bienes públicos, ya sean servicios públicos o infraestructuras, a las regiones subdesarrolladas. Las evidencias apuntan que el éxito de estos programas depende en parte de externalidades, las cuales se relacionan con los cambios del tejido asociativo y los valores de los participantes de la comunidad. Estas externalidades se definen como el capital social. Cómo las externalidades no son directamente evaluadas en el impacto económico y social de los proyectos, pero su existencia es aceptada por los planificadores que reconocen la importancia de desarrollar el tejido de relaciones en la comunidad. Sin embargo este capital social no es medido. El objeto de esta tesis es investigar y proponer procesos de medida y evaluación del capital social de un proyecto, y relacionarlos con las actividades del mismo en un territorio y proyecto dado como casos de estudio. El Programa de Desarrollo de la Zona de Mata (PROMATA) en el Estado de Pernambuco, Brasil, financiado por el Estado de Pernambuco en Brasil y el BID, finalizado en 2010, ha sido elegido como caso de estudio. Para la evaluación y medida del capital social se han estudiado dos periodos. Uno considerando solo los planes del proyecto, sin considerar su implantación, que se ha denominado evaluación A Priori, basada en un panel de expertos con visión de las externalidades generadas. Y otra con la participación de las partes de la comunidad después de su finalización, denomina evaluación A Posteriori, para lo cual se han entrevistado un número significativo de partes interesadas utilizando un cuestionario especialmente diseñado. Los resultados han sido procesados mediante análisis estadísticos avanzados. El proyecto PROMATA es considerado un caso de éxito en Brasil, en parte por su aproximación al desarrollo asociativo. Sin embargo las valoraciones del capital social muestran que algunas relaciones Estado-sociedad y sociedad-personas no han cambiado todo lo esperado, en oposición a las evaluaciones de satisfacción de los indicadores del proyecto. Es el efecto externo del capital social. ABSTRACT The regional development programs promoted by the national governments and international multilateral agencies, like the World Bank and the Interamerican Development Bank (BID), are oriented to public policies under which public goods, like public services and infrastructures, are supplied to underdeveloped regions. More and more evidences are pointing to the fact that success of these programs depends in a good part of externalities, which are related to the changes in the networking and values among the stakeholders in the territory. These externalities are defined as the Social Capital. As externalities, they are not directly evaluated in the projects economic and social impact, but accepted to exist and the planners of the projects do acknowledge the important of social networking. However never assessed. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and propose a way to measure and assess the social capital of a given project, and relate that with the activities of the project, with a given project and territory as base case. The Development Program in Zona da Mata (PROMATA) in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, funded by the Brazil State and the BID, ended in 2010, was chosen as the base case. For the assessment of the social capital two periods in time where studied. One considering only the project program named a priori evaluation and based in a panel of experts, which are aware of the possible externalities of the project. Other, considering the stakeholders view after the project ended, named posterior evaluation, which required interviewing a number of stakeholders using a specially designed questionnaire. The results were processed using advanced statistical techniques. PROMATA is considered a success case story in Brazil, in part for its social networking approach. However when the social capital is assessed there are areas of state-society and society-community relations not that well transformed, as the satisfaction research of the project indicators. This unforeseen externality is the social capital effect.

Economic growth and complementarity between stages of human capital

We study the impact of the different stages of human capital accumulation on the evolution of labor productivity in a model calibrated to the U.S. from 1961 to 2008. We add early childhood education to a standard continuous time life cycle economy and assume complementarity between educational stages. There are three sectors in the model: the goods sector, the early childhood sector and the formal education sector. Agents are homogenous and choose the intensity of preschool education, how long to stay in formal school, labor effort and consumption, and there are exogenous distortions to these four decisions. The model matches the data very well and closely reproduces the paths of schooling, hours worked, relative prices and GDP. We find that the reduction in distortions to early education in the period was large and made a very strong contribution to human capital accumulation. However, due to general equilibrium effects of labor market taxation, marginal modification in the incentives for early education in 2008 had a smaller impact than those for formal education. This is because the former do not decisively affect the decision to join the labor market, while the latter do. Without labor taxation, incentives for preschool are significantly stronger.

Changing treaty and changing economic context:the dynamic relationship of the legislature and the judiciary in the pursuit of capital liberalisation

Introduction For a significant period of time (the late 1950s--1980s), a lack of capital freedom was a major obstacle to the progress of the internal market project. The free movements of goods, persons and services were achieved, and developed, primarily through the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). On the other hand, the Court played a (self-imposed) limited role in the development of the free movement of capital. It was through a progressive series of legislation that the freedom was finally achieved. John Usher has noted that the consequence of this is that ‘free movement of capital thus became the only Treaty “freedom” to be achieved in the manner envisaged in the Treaty’. For this reason, the relationship of the Court and legislature in this area is of particular importance in the broader context of the internal market. The rest of this chapter is split into four sections and will attempt to describe (and account for) the differing relationships between the legislature and the judiciary during the different stages of capital liberalisation. Section 2 will deal with the situation under the original Treaty of Rome. Section 3 will examine a single legislative intervention: Directive 88/361. It was this intervention that contained the obligation for Member States to fully liberalise capital movements. It is therefore the most important contribution to the completion of the internal market in the capital sphere. An examination will be made of whether the interpretation of the Directive demonstrates a changed (or changing attitude) of the Court towards the EU legislature. Section 4 will examine the changes brought about by the Treaty on European Union in 1993. It was at Maastricht that the Member States finally introduced into the Treaty framework an absolute obligation to liberalise capital movements. Finally, Section 5 will consider the Treaty of Lisbon and the possibility of future interventions by the legislature. By looking at the patterns that run through the different parts, this chapter will attempt to engage with the question of whether the approaches were products of their historical context, or whether they can be applied to other areas within the capital movement sphere.

Human Security and Crime in Latin America: The political Capital and Political Impact of Criminal Groups and Belligerents Involved in Illicit Economies

Organized crime and illegal economies generate multiple threats to states and societies. But although the negative effects of high levels of pervasive street and organized crime on human security are clear, the relationships between human security, crime, illicit economies, and law enforcement are highly complex. By sponsoring illicit economies in areas of state weakness where legal economic opportunities and public goods are seriously lacking, both belligerent and criminal groups frequently enhance some elements of human security of the marginalized populations who depend on illicit economies for basic livelihoods. Even criminal groups without a political ideology often have an important political impact on the lives of communities and on their allegiance to the State. Criminal groups also have political agendas. Both belligerent and criminal groups can develop political capital through their sponsorship of illicit economies. The extent of their political capital is dependent on several factors. Efforts to defeat belligerent groups by decreasing their financial flows through suppression of an illicit economy are rarely effective. Such measures, in turn, increase the political capital of anti-State groups. The effectiveness of anti-money laundering measures (AML) also remains low and is often highly contingent on specific vulnerabilities of the target. The design of AML measures has other effects, such as on the size of a country’s informal economy. Multifaceted anti-crime strategies that combine law enforcement approaches with targeted socio-economic policies and efforts to improve public goods provision, including access to justice, are likely to be more effective in suppressing crime than tough nailed-fist approaches. For anti-crime policies to be effective, they often require a substantial, but politically-difficult concentration of resources in target areas. In the absence of effective law enforcement capacity, legalization and decriminalization policies of illicit economies are unlikely on their own to substantially reduce levels of criminality or to eliminate organized crime. Effective police reform, for several decades largely elusive in Latin America, is one of the most urgently needed policy reforms in the region. Such efforts need to be coupled with fundamental judicial and correctional systems reforms. Yet, regional approaches cannot obliterate the so-called balloon effect. If demand persists, even under intense law enforcement pressures, illicit economies will relocate to areas of weakest law enforcement, but they will not be eliminated.

Value creation in capital waterway projects: Application of a transaction cost and transaction benefit framework for the Miami River and the New Orleans Inner Harbour Navigation Canal

Waterways have many more ties with society than as a medium for the transportation of goods alone. Waterway systems offer society many kinds of socio-economic value. Waterway authorities responsible for management and (re)development need to optimize the public benefits for the investments made. However, due to the many trade-offs in the system these agencies have multiple options for achieving this goal. Because they can invest resources in a great many different ways, they need a way to calculate the efficiency of the decisions they make. Transaction cost theory, and the analysis that goes with it, has emerged as an important means of justifying efficiency decisions in the economic arena. To improve our understanding of the value-creating and coordination problems for waterway authorities, such a framework is applied to this sector. This paper describes the findings for two cases, which reflect two common multi trade-off situations for waterway (re)development. Our first case study focuses on the Miami River, an urban revitalized waterway. The second case describes the Inner Harbour Navigation Canal in New Orleans, a canal and lock in an industrialized zone, in need of an upgrade to keep pace with market developments. The transaction cost framework appears to be useful in exposing a wide variety of value-creating opportunities and the resistances that come with it. These insights can offer infrastructure managers guidance on how to seize these opportunities.

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts