917 resultados para C51 - Model Construction and Estimation


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The recent development of the pop-up satellite archival tag (PSAT) has allowed the collection of information on a tagged animal, such as geolocation, pressure (depth), and ambient water temperature. The success of early studies, where PSATs were used on pelagic fishes, has spurred increasing interest in the use of these tags on a large variety of species and age groups. However, some species and age groups may not be suitable candidates for carrying a PSAT because of the relatively large size of the tag and the consequent energy cost to the study animal. We examined potential energetic costs to carrying a tag for the cownose ray (Rhinoptera bonasus). Two forces act on an animal tagged with a PSAT: lift from the PSATs buoyancy and drag as the tag is moved through the water column. In a freshwater flume, a spring scale measured the total force exerted by a PSAT at flume velocities from 0.00 to 0.60 m/s. By measuring the angle of deflection of the PSAT at each velocity, we separated total force into its constituent forces — lift and drag. The power required to carry a PSAT horizontally through the water was then calculated from the drag force and velocity. Using published metabolic rates, we calculated the power for a ray of a given size to swim at a specified velocity (i.e., its swimming power). For each velocity, the power required to carry a PSAT was compared to the swimming power expressed as a percentage, %TAX (Tag Altered eXertion). A %TAX greater than 5% was felt to be energetically significant. Our analysis indicated that a ray larger than 14.8 kg can carry a PSAT without exceeding this criterion. This method of estimating swimming power can be applied to other species and would allow a researcher to decide the suitability of a given study animal for tagging with a PSAT.

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Fisheries gear researchers have employed scuba diver-operated sleds to evaluate towed fishing systems since the early 1950's. One of the earliest sled designs was a converted Stokes litter in which two divers sat tandem with the forward diver operating the diving controls (Sand, 1956). The litter was relatively easy to maneuver and provided a comfortable platform for observing operational fishing gear. However, the use of underwater photographic equipment to document gear performance was difficult due to the limited mobility of the observer-cameraman.

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We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

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For the last two decades most general circulation models (GCMs) have included some kind of surface hydrology submodel. The content of these submodels is becoming increasingly complex and realistic. It is still easy to identify defects in present treatments. Yet, to improve our ability to model the contribution of land hydrology to climate and climate change, we must be concerned not with just the surface hydrology submodel per se, but also with how it works in the overall context of the GCM.

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Speed trial results of six 32' wooden stern, trawlers built to the same design are analyzed to determine the EHP ship Froude number curves in each case and are compared with the model test results of the same design and for the corresponding, displacement, conditions.

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The large-insert genomic DNA library is a critical resource for genome-wide genetic dissection of target species. We constructed a high-redundancy bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library of a New World monkey species, the black-handed spider monkey