Where to after Drink Rite: An evaluation of opportunities for police and community promotion of an anti-drink driving message in the licensed venue setting. Report to the National Drug Strategy Law Enforcement Funding Committee

Estimating the prevalence of drink driving is a difficult task. Self‐reported drink driving indicates that drink driving is far more common than official statistics suggest. In order to promote a responsible attitude towards alcohol consumption and drink driving within the Queensland community, the Queensland Police Service, Queensland Health and Queensland Transport developed the ‘Drink Rite’ program (Queensland Police Service information sheet, 2009). However, the feasibility of the program is now in doubt as the National Health and Medical Research Council’s guidelines for alcohol consumption changed in 2009 to state “For healthy men and women, drinking no more than four standard drinks on a single occasion reduces the risk of alcohol‐related injury arising from that occasion” (NHMRC Publication, 2009, p. 51). As such, adhering to the NHMRC guidelines places restrictions on how the existing Drink Rite program can be operated (i.e. by reducing the number of standard drinks provided to participants from eight to four). It is arguable that a reduction in the number of alcoholic drinks provided to participants in the program will result in a large reduction in observed BAC readings. This, in turn, will lead to a potential loss of message content when discussing the variation in the effects of alcohol.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Sequential MRI reveals individual level deformities in the growing scoliotic spine that are clinically masked by the Cobb angle

Introduction Clinically, the Cobb angle method measures the overall scoliotic curve in the coronal plane but does not measure individual vertebra and disc wedging. The contributions of the vertebrae and discs in the growing scoliotic spine were measured to investigate coronal plane deformity progression with growth. Methods A 0.49mm isotropic 3D MRI technique was developed to investigate the level-by-level changes that occur in the growing spine of a group of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients, who received two to four sequential scans (spaced 3-12 months apart). The coronal plane wedge angles of each vertebra and disc in the major curve were measured to capture any changes that occurred during their adolescent growth phase. Results Seventeen patients had at least two scans. Mean patient age was 12.9 years (SD 1.5 years). Sixteen were classified as right-sided major thoracic Lenke Type 1 (one left sided). Mean standing Cobb angle at initial presentation was 31° (SD 12°). Six received two scans, nine three scans and two four scans, with 65% showing a Cobb angle progression of 5° or more between scans. Overall, there was no clear pattern of deformity progression of individual vertebrae and discs, nor between patients who progressed and those who didn’t. There were measurable changes in the wedging of the vertebrae and discs in all patients. In sequential scans, change in direction of wedging was also seen. In several patients there was reverse wedging in the discs that counteracted increased wedging of the vertebrae such that no change in overall Cobb angle was seen. Conclusion Sequential MRI data showed complex patterns of deformity progression. Changes to the wedging of individual vertebrae and discs may occur in patients who have no increase in Cobb angle measure; the Cobb method alone may be insufficient to capture the complex mechanisms of deformity progression.

Morphometric analysis of the thoracic intervertebral foramen osseous anatomy in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis using low dose computerized tomography

Introduction. The dimensions of the thoracic intervertebral foramen in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) have not previously been quantified. During posterior approach scoliosis correction surgery pedicle screws may occasionally breach into the foramen. Better understanding of the dimensions of the foramen may be useful in surgical planning. This study describes a reproducible method for measurement of the thoracic foramen in AIS using computerized tomography (CT). Methods. In 23 pre-operative female patients with Lenke 1 type AIS with right side convexity major curves confined to the thoracic spine the foraminal height (FH), foraminal width (FW), pedicle to superior articular process distance (P-SAP) and cross sectional foraminal area (FA) were measured using multiplanar reconstructed CT. Measurements were made at entrance, midpoint and exit of the thoracic foramina from T1/T2 to T11/T12. Results were correlated with potential dependent variables of major curve Cobb Angle measured on X-ray and CT, Age, Weight, Lenke classification subtype, Risser Grade and number of spinal levels in the major curve. Results. The FH, FW, P-SAP and FA dimensions and ratios are all significantly larger on the convexity of the major curve and maximal at or close to the apex. Mean thoracic foraminal dimensions change in a predictable manner relative to position on the major thoracic curve. There was no significant correlation with the measured foraminal dimensions or ratios and the potential dependent variables. The average ratio of convexity to concavity dimensions at the apex foramina for entrance, midpoint and exit respectively are FH (1.50, 1.38, 1.25), FW (1.28, 1.30, 0.98), FA (2.06, 1.84, 1.32), P-SAP (1.61, 1.47, 1.30). Conclusion. Foraminal dimensions of the thoracic spine are significantly affected by AIS. Foraminal dimensions have a predictable convexity to concavity ratio relative to the proximity to the major curve apex. Surgeons should be aware of these anatomical differences during scoliosis correction surgery.

Using axially loaded MRI to investigate the biomechanics of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction. Spinal flexibility measurement is an important aspect of pre-operative clinical assessment in the treatment of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS). Clinically, curve flexibility is a combined measure for all vertebral levels. We propose that in vivo flexibility for individual spinal joints could provide valuable additional information in planning treatment for scoliosis. Methods. Individual spinal joint flexibility in the coronal plane was measured for a series of AIS patients using axially loaded magnetic resonance imaging. Each patient underwent magnetic resonance imaging in the supine position, with no axial load, and then following application of an axial compressive load equal to half the patient’s bodyweight. Coronal plane disc wedge angles in the unloaded and loaded configurations were measured. Joint moments exerted by the axial compressive load were used to derive estimates of individual joint compliance. Results. Fifteen AIS patients were included in the study (mean clinical Cobb angle 46 degrees, mean age 15.3 years). Mean intra-observer measurement error for endplate inclination was 1.6˚. The mean increase in measured major Cobb angle between unloaded and loaded scans was 7.6˚. For certain spinal levels (+2,+1,-2 relative to the apex) there was a statistically significant relationship between change in wedge angle under load and initial wedge angle, such that initially highly wedged discs demonstrated a smaller change in wedge angle than less wedged discs. Highly wedged discs were observed near the apex of the curve, which corresponded to lower joint compliance in the apical region. Conclusion. Approaches such as this can provide valuable biomechanical data on in vivo spinal biomechanics in AIS. Knowledge of individual joint flexibility may assist surgeons to determine which spinal procedure is most appropriate for a patient, which levels should be included in a spinal fusion and the relative mobility of individual joints in the deformed region of the spine.

The vertebral venous system in healthy and scoliotic adolescent spines - a 3D MRI investigation

Introduction. The venous drainage system within vertebral bodies (VBs) has been well documented previously in cadaveric specimens. Advances in 3D imaging and image processing now allow for in vivo quantification of larger venous vessels, such as the basivertebral vein. Differences between healthy and scoliotic VB veins can therefore be investigated. Methods. 20 healthy adolescent controls and 21 AIS patients were recruited (with ethics approval) to undergo 3D MRI, using a 3 Tesla, T1-weighted 3D gradient echo sequence, resulting in 512 slices across the thoraco-lumbar spine, with a voxel size of 0.5x0.5x0.5mm. Using Amira Filament Editor, five transverse slices through the VB were examined simultaneously and the resulting observable vascular network traced. Each VB was assessed, and a vascular network recorded when observable. A local coordinate system was created in the centre of each VB and the vascular networks aligned to this. The length of the vascular network on the left and right sides (with a small central region) of the VB was calculated, and the spatial patterning of the networks assessed level-by-level within each subject. Results. An average of 6 (range 4-10) vascular networks, consistent with descriptions of the basivertebral vein, were identifiable within each subject, most commonly between T10-L1. Differences were seen in the left/right distribution of vessels in the control and AIS subjects. Healthy controls saw a percentage distribution of 29:18:53 across the left:centre:right regions respectively, whereas the AIS subjects had a slightly shifted distribution of 33:25:42. The control group showed consistent spatial patterning of the vascular networks across most levels, but this was not seen in the AIS group. Conclusion. Observation and quantification of the basivertebral vein in vivo is possible using 3D MRI. The AIS group lacked the spatial pattern repetition seen in the control group and minor differences were seen in the left/right distribution of vessels.

Respiratory Exacerbations in Indigenous Children From Two Countries With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Chronic Suppurative Lung Disease/Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory exacerbations (AREs) cause morbidity and lung function decline in children with chronic suppurative lung disease (CSLD) and bronchiectasis. In a prospective longitudinal cohort study, we determined the patterns of AREs and factors related to increased risks for AREs in children with CSLD/bronchiectasis. METHODS: Ninety-three indigenous children aged 0.5 to 8 years with CSLD/bronchiectasis in Australia (n = 57) and Alaska (n = 36) during 2004 to 2009 were followed for > 3 years. Standardized parent interviews, physical examinations, and medical record reviews were undertaken at enrollment and every 3 to 6 months thereafter. RESULTS: Ninety-three children experienced 280 AREs (median = 2, range = 0-11 per child) during the 3-year period; 91 (32%) were associated with pneumonia, and 43 (15%) resulted in hospitalization. Of the 93 children, 69 (74%) experienced more than two AREs over the 3-year period, and 28 (30%) had more than one ARE in each study year. The frequency of AREs declined significantly over each year of follow-up. Factors associated with recurrent (two or more) AREs included age < 3 years, ARE-related hospitalization in the first year of life, and pneumonia or hospitalization for ARE in the year preceding enrollment. Factors associated with hospitalizations for AREs in the first year of study included age < 3 years, female caregiver education, and regular use of bronchodilators. CONCLUSIONS: AREs are common in children with CSLD/bronchiectasis, but with clinical care and time AREs occur less frequently. All children with CSLD/bronchiectasis require comprehensive care; however, treatment strategies may differ for these patients based on their changing risks for AREs during each year of care.

The influence of Lord Robert Baden-Powell on the development of the Boy Scout Movement with observations on its operation in Queensland 1907-1937

The purpose of the Boy Scout Movement was to create boys who were honest, obedient to constituted authority and loyal to the King and the British Empire. This thesis examines the influence that Scouting's founder, Lord Robert Baden-Powell, had on the development of Scouting in Queensland in the period 1907 to 1937, and concludes that that influence was profound. Baden-Powell conceived the Boy Scout Movement, and its non-formal educative method as an answer to some of the social, economic, and political problems at the beginning of the twentieth century – a paradigm recognised and acknowledged by educators of the day.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 56 bone mineral density loci and reveals 14 loci associated with risk of fracture

Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Reproduction of Richard Dehmel reading with his wife Ida Dehmel nee Auerbach sitting across from him, early in their marriage; Parkstrasse, Hamburg Portraits; Couples

Verso: Erste Wohnung Parkstrasse Fruehzeit der Ehe 1901

Portrait of Elly Goldschmidt and her children Ilse and Robert. Portraits Family

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Ilse and Robert Goldschmidt with their parents Albert Goldschmidt and Elly nee Schoenbeck grandfather Albert Schoenbeck and great grandmother Sophie Schoenbeck nee Mahler. Portraits Family

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Portrait of the engineer and geneologist Robert Goldschmidt Portraits Men

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