The impact of investor sentiment on stock returns in emerging markets. The case of Central European markets

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Eastern European Economics on July 2015, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1079139

Performance, transmission and devotion: understanding the Anglo-Saxon prayer books, c.800-1050

Through an investigation of the Anglo-Saxon prayer books and selected psalters, this thesis corrects standard histories of medieval devotion that circumvent the Anglo-Saxon contribution to medieval piety. In the first half of the thesis, I establish a theoretical framework for Anglo-Saxon piety in which to explore the prayers. Current theoretical frameworks dealing with the medieval devotional material are flawed as scholars use terms such as ‘affective piety’, ‘private’ and even ‘devotion’ vaguely. After an introduction which defines some of the core terminology, Chapter 2 introduces the principal witnesses to the Anglo-Saxon prayer tradition. These include the prodigal eighth- and early ninth- century Mercian Group, comprising the Book of Nunnaminster (London, British Library, Harley 2965, s. viii ex/ix1), the Harleian Prayer Book (London, British Library, Harley 7653, s. viii ex/ix1), the Royal Prayer Book (London, British Library, Royal 2 A. xx, s. viii2/ix1/4), and the Book of Cerne (Cambridge, University Library, Ll. 1. 10). These prayer books are the earliest of their kind in Europe. This chapter challenges some established views concerning the prayer books, including purported Irish influence on their composition and the probability of female ownership. Chapter 3 explores the performance of prayer. The chapter demonstrates that Anglo-Saxon prayers, for example, the Royal Abecedarian Prayer, were transmitted fluidly. The complex relationship between this abecedarian prayer and its reflex in the Book of Nunnaminster reveals the complexity of prayer composition and transmission in the early medieval world but more importantly, it helps scholars theorise how the prayers may have been used, whether recited verbatim or used for extemporalisation. Changes made by later readers to earlier texts are also vital to this study, since they help answer questions of usage and show the evolution and subsequent influence of Anglo-Saxon religiosity. The second half of the thesis makes a special study of prayers to the Cross, the wounded Christ, and the Virgin, three important themes in later medieval spirituality. These focus on the Royal Abecedarian Prayer, which explores Christ’s life (Chapter 5), especially his Passion; the ‘Domine Ihesu Christe, adoro te cruce’ which celebrates the Cross (Chapter 4); and the Oratio Alchfriðo ad sanctam Mariam, which invokes the Virgin Mary (Chapter 6). These prayers occur in multiple, temporally-diverse witnesses and have complex transmission histories, involving both oral and written dissemination. The concluding chapter (7) highlights some of the avenues for future research opened by the thesis.

Accessibility, availability and affordability of anti-malarials in a rural district in Kenya after implementation of a national subsidy scheme.

BACKGROUND: Poor access to prompt and effective treatment for malaria contributes to high mortality and severe morbidity. In Kenya, it is estimated that only 12% of children receive anti-malarials for their fever within 24 hours. The first point of care for many fevers is a local medicine retailer, such as a pharmacy or chemist. The role of the medicine retailer as an important distribution point for malaria medicines has been recognized and several different strategies have been used to improve the services that these retailers provide. Despite these efforts, many mothers still purchase ineffective drugs because they are less expensive than effective artemisinin combination therapy (ACT). One strategy that is being piloted in several countries is an international subsidy targeted at anti-malarials supplied through the retail sector. The goal of this strategy is to make ACT as affordable as ineffective alternatives. The programme, called the Affordable Medicines Facility - malaria was rolled out in Kenya in August 2010. METHODS: In December 2010, the affordability and accessibility of malaria medicines in a rural district in Kenya were evaluated using a complete census of all public and private facilities, chemists, pharmacists, and other malaria medicine retailers within the Webuye Demographic Surveillance Area. Availability, types, and prices of anti-malarials were assessed. There are 13 public or mission facilities and 97 medicine retailers (registered and unregistered). RESULTS: The average distance from a home to the nearest public health facility is 2 km, but the average distance to the nearest medicine retailer is half that. Quinine is the most frequently stocked anti-malarial (61% of retailers). More medicine retailers stocked sulphadoxine-pyramethamine (SP; 57%) than ACT (44%). Eleven percent of retailers stocked AMFm subsidized artemether-lumefantrine (AL). No retailers had chloroquine in stock and only five were selling artemisinin monotherapy. The mean price of any brand of AL, the recommended first-line drug in Kenya, was $2.7 USD. Brands purchased under the AMFm programme cost 40% less than non-AMFm brands. Artemisinin monotherapies cost on average more than twice as much as AMFm-brand AL. SP cost only $0.5, a fraction of the price of ACT. CONCLUSIONS: AMFm-subsidized anti-malarials are considerably less expensive than unsubsidized AL, but the price difference between effective and ineffective therapies is still large.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery towards societal objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48–71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M€ (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock–recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Improving the performance of a Mediterranean demersal fishery toward economic objectives beyond MSY

Mediterranean demersal fisheries are highly multispecific and many of their target stocks are overexploited. In addition, rocketing fuel costs and low market prices of traditionally high-value species are challenging the viability of fisheries. Here, based on the numeric results of a simulation model, we conclude that this situation can be remedied by reducing both fishing mortality and fishing costs. According to our model results, fishing effort reductions of 48-71% would improve the health of fish stocks while increasing the economic profits of Mallorca islands bottom trawl fishery to as much as 1.9 M(sic) (146% higher than current profits). If all fish stocks were exploited at their MSY (or below) level, the reduction in fishing effort would have to be of 71% from current values. If equilibrium profits from the fishery were to be maximized (MEY), fishing effort would need to be reduced by 48%. These results must be taken with caution due the many sources of uncertainty of our analysis. The modeling tools used to estimate these values are conditional to the adequate treatment of two sources of uncertainty that are particularly problematic in Mediterranean fisheries: insufficiently known recruitment variability and lack of periodic evaluations of the state of many species. Our results show that fishing effort reductions would produce economic yield gains after a period of transition. Further studies on the benefits of changing the size-selection pattern of fisheries, on better estimation of stock recruitment relationships and on better quantifications of the contribution of secondary species to these fisheries, are expected to improve the scientific recommendations for Mediterranean demersal fisheries toward sustainability principles.

Prices and Wages in Ireland, 1700-1850

The article presents primary research on rural wages and the prices of agricultural goods and draws conclusions concerning the trend in the living conditions of rural workers in the century before the Great Irish Famine of 1845-1850.

Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

'The End of the Irish Poor Law?: Welfare and Healthcare Reform in Revolutionary and Independent Ireland'

This book explores welfare provision in Ireland from the revolutionary period to the 1940s, This work is a significant addition to the growing historiography of twentieth-century Ireland which moves beyond political history. It demonstrates that concepts of respectability, deservingness, and social class where central dynamics in Irish society and welfare practices. This book provides the first major study of local welfare practices, policies, and attitudes towards poverty and the poor in this era.

This book’s exploration of the poor law during revolutionary and independent Ireland provides fresh and original insights into this critical juncture in Irish history. It charts the transformation of the former workhouse system into a network of local authority welfare and healthcare institutions including county homes, county and hospital hospitals, and mother and baby homes. This book provides historical context to current day debates and controversies relating to the institutionalisation of unwed mothers and child welfare policies.

This book undertakes two cases studies on county Kerry and Cork city; also, Irish experiences are placed against the backdrop of wider transnational trends.

This work has multiple audiences and will appeal to those interested in Irish social, culture, economic and political history. This book will also appeal to historians of welfare, the poor law, and the social history of medicine. It also informs modern-day social affairs.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Bioethanol production from a sub-product of pulping industry

A vida da sociedade atual é dependente dos recursos fósseis, tanto a nível de energia como de materiais. No entanto, tem-se verificado uma redução das reservas destes recursos, ao mesmo tempo que as necessidades da sociedade continuam a aumentar, tornando cada vez mais necessárias, a produção de biocombustíveis e produtos químicos. Atualmente o etanol é produzido industrialmente a partir da cana-de-açúcar e milho, matérias-primas usadas na alimentação humana e animal. Este fato desencadeou o aumento de preços dos alimentos em todo o mundo e, como consequência, provocou uma série de distúrbios sociais. Os subprodutos industriais, recursos independentes das cadeias alimentares, têm-se posicionado como fonte de matérias-primas potenciais para bioprocessamento. Neste sentido, surgem os subprodutos gerados em grande quantidade pela indústria papeleira. Os licores de cozimento da madeira ao sulfito ácido (SSLs) são uma matériaprima promissora, uma vez que durante este processo os polissacarídeos da madeira são hidrolisados originando açúcares fermentáveis. A composição dos SSLs varia consoante o tipo de madeira usada no processo de cozimento (de árvores resinosas, folhosas ou a mistura de ambas). O bioprocessamento do SSL proveniente de folhosas (HSSL) é uma metodologia ainda pouco explorada. O HSSL contém elevadas concentrações de açúcares (35-45 g.L-1), na sua maioria pentoses. A fermentação destes açúcares a bioetanol é ainda um desafio, uma vez que nem todos os microrganismos são capazes de fermentar as pentoses a etanol. De entre as leveduras capazes de fermentar naturalmente as pentoses, destaca-se a Scheffersomyces stipitis, que apresenta uma elevada eficiência de fermentação. No entanto, o HSSL contém também compostos conhecidos por inibirem o crescimento de microrganismos, dificultando assim o seu bioprocessamento. Neste sentido, o principal objetivo deste trabalho foi a produção de bioetanol pela levedura S. stipitis a partir de HSSL, resultante do cozimento ao sulfito ácido da madeira de Eucalyptus globulus. Para alcançar este objetivo, estudaram-se duas estratégias de operação diferentes. Em primeiro lugar estudou-se a bio-desintoxicação do HSSL com o fungo filamentoso Paecilomyces variotii, conhecido por crescer em resíduos industriais. Estudaram-se duas tecnologias fermentativas diferentes para a biodesintoxicação do HSSL: um reator descontínuo e um reator descontínuo sequencial (SBR). A remoção biológica de inibidores do HSSL foi mais eficaz quando se usou o SBR. P. variotii assimilou alguns inibidores microbianos como o ácido acético, o ácido gálico e o pirogalol, entre outros. Após esta desintoxicação, o HSSL foi submetido à fermentação com S. stipitis, na qual foi atingida a concentração máxima de etanol de 2.36 g.L-1 com um rendimento de 0.17 g.g-1. P. variotti, além de desintoxicar o HSSL, também é útil na produção de proteína microbiana (SCP) para a alimentação animal pois, a sua biomassa é rica em proteína. O estudo da produção de SCP por P. variotii foi efetuado num SBR com HSSL sem suplementos e suplementado com sais. A melhor produção de biomassa foi obtida no HSSL sem adição de sais, tendo-se obtido um teor de proteína elevado (82,8%), com uma baixa concentração de DNA (1,1%). A proteína continha 6 aminoácidos essenciais, mostrando potencial para o uso desta SCP na alimentação animal e, eventualmente, em nutrição humana. Assim, a indústria papeleira poderá integrar a produção de bioetanol após a produção SCP e melhorar a sustentabilidade da indústria de pastas. A segunda estratégia consistiu em adaptar a levedura S. stipitis ao HSSL de modo a que esta levedura conseguisse crescer e fermentar o HSSL sem remoção de inibidores. Operou-se um reator contínuo (CSTR) com concentrações crescentes de HSSL, entre 20 % e 60 % (v/v) durante 382 gerações em HSSL, com uma taxa de diluição de 0.20 h-1. A população adaptada, recolhida no final do CSTR (POP), apresentou uma melhoria na fermentação do HSSL (60 %), quando comparada com a estirpe original (PAR). Após esta adaptação, a concentração máxima de etanol obtida foi de 6.93 g.L-1, com um rendimento de 0.26 g.g-1. POP possuía também a capacidade de metabolizar, possivelmente por ativação de vias oxidativas, compostos derivados da lenhina e taninos dissolvidos no HSSL, conhecidos inibidores microbianos. Por fim, verificou-se também que a pré-cultura da levedura em 60 % de HSSL fez com que a estirpe PAR melhorasse o processo fermentativo em HSSL, em comparação com o ensaio sem pré-cultura em HSSL. No entanto, no caso da estirpe POP, o seu metabolismo foi redirecionado para a metabolização dos inibidores sendo que a produção de etanol decresceu.

Product innovation and the costs of energy-using product policies

Energy-using Products (EuPs) contribute significantly to the United Kingdom’s CO2 emissions, both in the domestic and non-domestic sectors. Policies that encourage the use of more energy efficient products (such as minimum performance standards, energy labelling, enhanced capital allowances, etc.) can therefore generate significant reductions in overall energy consumption and hence, CO2 emissions. While these policies can impose costs on the producers and consumers of these products in the short run, the process of product innovation may reduce the magnitude of these costs over time. If this is the case, then it is important that the impacts of innovation are taken into account in policy impact assessments. Previous studies have found considerable evidence of experience curve effects for EuP categories (e.g. refrigerators, televisions, etc.), with learning rates of around 20% for both average unit costs and average prices; similar to those found for energy supply technologies. Moreover, the decline in production costs has been accompanied by a significant improvement in the energy efficiency of EuPs. Building on these findings and the results of an empirical analysis of UK sales data for a range of product categories, this paper sets out an analytic framework for assessing the impact of EuP policy interventions on consumers and producers which takes explicit account of the product innovation process. The impact of the product innovation process can be seen in the continuous evolution of the energy class profiles of EuP categories over time; with higher energy classes (e.g. A, A+, etc.) entering the market and increasing their market share, while lower classes (e.g. E, F, etc.) lose share and then leave the market. Furthermore, the average prices of individual energy classes have declined over their respective lives, while new classes have typically entered the market at successively lower “launch prices”. Based on two underlying assumptions regarding the shapes of the “lifecycle profiles” for the relative sales and the relative average mark-ups of individual energy classes, a simple simulation model is developed that can replicate the observed market dynamics in terms of the evolution of market shares and average prices. The model is used to assess the effect of two alternative EuP policy interventions – a minimum energy performance standard and an energy-labelling scheme – on the average unit cost trajectory and the average price trajectory of a typical EuP category, and hence the financial impacts on producers and consumers.

Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Measuring the effects of price movements on private consumption

This paper studies how shocks in the prices of Food, Energy and Financial Assets affect private consumption using a VAR Model. Then, the total effects are broken into direct and indirect effects, using the coefficients taken from the previous model. We use quarterly data for the Portuguese economy from the last 20 years. We found that energy prices and financial assets have a strong connection with consumption, suggesting that the economy may be too exposed to shocks in these markets.