Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

Hydrologic variability related to El Nino in the Pacific Northwest [abstract]

A preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken to evaluate whether the effect of El Nino events is apparent in variables related to hydrologic behavior. Annual precipitation, temperature and streamflow were used for three locations in Oregon representing coastal, Willamette Valley/Cascade and eastern Oregon regions. The mean and variance for periods of El Nino occurrence vs. those with no El Nino were computed. Numerical differences were observed but were not consistent across all stations. The coastal area showed a decrease in mean precipitation and increase in mean streamflow during El Nino events. Other stations showed a positive increase in mean for both precipitation and streamflow for El Nino events. Variance of precipitation was greater in the coastal area but smaller in other areas and vice versa for streamflow during El Nino events. Statistical analyses indicated no significant differences of means, variances or distributions using nonparametric tests for El Nino vs. non-El Nino series.

High-resolution natural recording systems: intercomparisons of the response to interannual climatic variability [abstract]

The goal of this work is to examine the properties of recording mechanisms which are common to continuously recording high-resolution natural systems in which climatic signals are imprinted and preserved as proxy records. These systems produce seasonal structures as an indirect response to climatic variability over the annual cycle. We compare the proxy records from four different high-resolution systems: the Quelccaya ice cap of the Peruvian Andes; composite tree ring growth from southern California and the southwestern United States; and the marine varve sedimentation systems in the Santa Barbara basin (off California, United States) and in the Gulf of California, Mexico. An important focus of this work is to indicate how the interannual climatic signal is recorded in a variety of different natural systems with vastly different recording mechanisms and widely separated in space. These high-resolution records are the products of natural processes which should be comparable, to some degree, to human-engineered systems developed to transmit and record physical quantities. We therefore present a simple analogy of a data recording system as a heuristic model to provide some unifying concepts with which we may better understand the formation of the records. This analogy assumes special significance when we consider that natural proxy records are the principal means to extend our knowledge of climatic variability into the past, beyond the limits of instrumentally recorded data.

The quest for temperature records in California free of urban heat island effects [abstract, figures, and tables]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The data of this paper differ from the Jones and Bradley papers [of 1982-1986] in that it represents an attempt to select thermal pollution free records rather than to include all available records. The specific long-term trends that this paper is trying to avoid are those illustrated by the heat islands of fast growing urban locations. One other major difference in this paper is that all of the records reported of this study are complete for the entire study period.

On the trail of interannual variability in phytoplankton and climate [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A selective but nontheless real record of phytoplankton activity over the Santa Barbara Basin can be obtained from the underlying varved sediments. The phytoplankton groups preserved are: diatoms (frustrules and spores), silicoflagellates, dinoflagellates (cysts) and coccoliths.

Co-oscillation of a fjord basin’s circulation with decade-long oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic regimes: Puget Sound 1916-'87 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic data collected during 1916-'87 in Puget Sound's Main Basin (~200 m x 5 km x 100 km) and approaches oscillate at low frequency between two regimes (I, II). The oscillation accounts for a large fraction of the interannual variability (41-75%) and the zero crossings between regimes span approximately a decade. ... The transition between regimes is accompanied by substantial changes in the horizontal pressure and density fields between the Pacific coast and the mixing zones leading to the Basin, as well as within the Basin itself.

The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the West [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The annual cycle and non-seasonal variability of streamflow over a network of stations in western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. The phase lag between the annual cycle of streamflow and precipitation varies considerably over this network, as does the persistence of monthly streamflow anomalies. This lag effect appears to be largely a function of the relative amount of snow laid down in a particular basin. In addition to the rather strong annual cycle that exists in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of streamflow anomalies that is related to the interplay between the temperature and precipitation annual cycles; of particular importance is the existence of stored water in the form of a snow pack.

Climatic indicators in an ice core from the Yukon [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Stable isotope data obtained from snow and ice cores retrieved from an altitude of 5340m on Mt. Logan (60°30'N; 140°36'W) indicate that "isotopic seasons" are not generally in phase with calendar seasons. The former are phase lagged with respect to the latter by up to several months and appear to be correlated with SST'S and ocean heat transfer curves and/or the position of the Aleutian low rather than with air temperature or the temperature difference between the ocean surface and the core site.

Equatorial upwelling at Galapagos: the cadmium record in corals since 1600 [abstract and figures]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Chemical isolation of lattice-bound trace elements in marine carbonates has opened new windows to paleoceanographic study. In a modern context at the Galapagos Islands, oceanic upwelling variability is mirrored by changes in the Cd content of reef-building corals. This association derives from cadmium's nutrient-like distribution in the water column and its ability to substitute for calcium in the aragonite lattice of corals. Given corals of sufficient age, it is thus possible to reconstruct near-term ENSO-related changes in surface waters of the eastern Equatorial Pacific on annual and sub-annual timescales.

Dendroclimatic reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and pressure patterns over the western and central USA, 1602-1961 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Verified reconstructions of seasonal temperature, precipitation and sea-level pressure over North America and the North Pacific have been derived from 65 arid-site tree-ring chronologies in the North American West. Significant reconstructions were obtained for temperature for wide areas in the West and mid-continent. Precipitation reconstructions were significant only in the West, and pressure was reconstructed over wide areas of the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent.

Annual stream flow variability over the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.

Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Initial formation of the U.S. Geological Survey hydroclimatic data network [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The U.S. Geological Survey is working to define a hydroclimatic data network. The Geological Survey collects stream discharge data at more than 7000 sites throughout the United States. Many of these stations are operated to supply information about specific activities such as flood control, irrigation projects, or hydropower generation. As a beginning, the Geological Survey will attempt to identify stations that represent natural streamflow. Several lists of stations representing "natural" streamflow have been complied in the past. While there is some overlap among these lists, a consistent compilation is preferred. The present effort is to produce one list identifying those stations having periods of record which would be suitable for mesoscale climatic analyses.

Subsurface ocean temperature signals on west coast of North America [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Data were extracted from the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Center Master Oceanographic Observation Data Set for a 200 km to 300 km wide coastal strip on the west coast of the United States. These data were averaged for the September through February (winter) and March through August (summer) intervals. The resulting winter temperature anomaly values show the El Nino signal in the CCC [Coastal California Current] as positive temperature anomalies from the surface to at least 300 m.