Classifying general nonlinear force laws in cell-based models via the continuum limit

though discrete cell-based frameworks are now commonly used to simulate a whole range of biological phenomena, it is typically not obvious how the numerous different types of model are related to one another, nor which one is most appropriate in a given context. Here we demonstrate how individual cell movement on the discrete scale modeled using nonlinear force laws can be described by nonlinear diffusion coefficients on the continuum scale. A general relationship between nonlinear force laws and their respective diffusion coefficients is derived in one spatial dimension and, subsequently, a range of particular examples is considered. For each case excellent agreement is observed between numerical solutions of the discrete and corresponding continuum models. Three case studies are considered in which we demonstrate how the derived nonlinear diffusion coefficients can be used to (a) relate different discrete models of cell behavior; (b) derive discrete, intercell force laws from previously posed diffusion coefficients, and (c) describe aggregative behavior in discrete simulations.

An improvement in clear-air turbulence forecasting based on spontaneous imbalance theory: the ULTURB algorithm

Recent research has shown that Lighthill–Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an ‘operational’ algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide ‘standard’. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Automatic near real-time selection of flood water levels from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images for assimilation into hydraulic models: a case study

Flood extents caused by fluvial floods in urban and rural areas may be predicted by hydraulic models. Assimilation may be used to correct the model state and improve the estimates of the model parameters or external forcing. One common observation assimilated is the water level at various points along the modelled reach. Distributed water levels may be estimated indirectly along the flood extents in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images by intersecting the extents with the floodplain topography. It is necessary to select a subset of levels for assimilation because adjacent levels along the flood extent will be strongly correlated. A method for selecting such a subset automatically and in near real-time is described, which would allow the SAR water levels to be used in a forecasting model. The method first selects candidate waterline points in flooded rural areas having low slope. The waterline levels and positions are corrected for the effects of double reflections between the water surface and emergent vegetation at the flood edge. Waterline points are also selected in flooded urban areas away from radar shadow and layover caused by buildings, with levels similar to those in adjacent rural areas. The resulting points are thinned to reduce spatial autocorrelation using a top-down clustering approach. The method was developed using a TerraSAR-X image from a particular case study involving urban and rural flooding. The waterline points extracted proved to be spatially uncorrelated, with levels reasonably similar to those determined manually from aerial photographs, and in good agreement with those of nearby gauges.

Estimated intake of dietary phytoestrogens in Australian women and evaluation of correlates of phytoestrogen intake

The role of dietary phytoestrogens in health has been of continued interest and debate, but available data on the distribution of intake in the Australian diet is scarce. Therefore, we aimed to estimate phytoestrogen consumption in Australian women, describe the pattern of intake and identify correlates of high phytoestrogen intake. Study participants were 2078 control women (18-79 y) from two population-based case-control studies on gyneacological cancers (2002-2007). Dietary information was obtained using a 135-item semiquantitative FFQ and intakes of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans and coumestans, including their individual components, were estimated using a database of phytoestrogen content in food developed in the UK. Median total intake (energy-adjusted) of phytoestrogens was 1.29 mg/d, of isoflavones 611 μg/d, of lignans 639 μg/d, of enterolignans 21μg/d and of coumestrol 8 μg/d. Both isoflavone and lignan intake were strongly skewed towards higher values and positively correlated with age. Women consumed on average 2 serves of soy foods/week. Compared to low phytoestrogen consumers (≤1.29 mg/d, median split), high phytoestrogen consumers (>1.29 mg/d) were slightly older, less likely to be smokers, had a higher educational and physical activity level, lower BMI, lower intake of dietary fat, and higher intake of fibre, selected micronutrient and soy food (all p<0.03). The daily intake of phytoestrogens in Australian women with predominantly Caucasian ethnicity is approximately 1 mg, similar to other Western populations, but considerably lower than among Asian women. However, those with a relatively high phytoestrogen diet seem to have healthier lifestyle and more favourable dietary profile compared to others.

What GPs need to know about palliative-care drugs: ketamine

This is the first in a short series of articles that focus on what GPs should consider when monitoring and prescribing specialist-initiated palliative-care drugs. This first article summarises the key issues for patients receiving ketamine.

Homogeneous and heterogeneous distributed classification for pocket data mining

Pocket Data Mining (PDM) describes the full process of analysing data streams in mobile ad hoc distributed environments. Advances in mobile devices like smart phones and tablet computers have made it possible for a wide range of applications to run in such an environment. In this paper, we propose the adoption of data stream classification techniques for PDM. Evident by a thorough experimental study, it has been proved that running heterogeneous/different, or homogeneous/similar data stream classification techniques over vertically partitioned data (data partitioned according to the feature space) results in comparable performance to batch and centralised learning techniques.

Influence of sugar type on the bioavailability of cocoa flavanols.

The beneficial effects of cocoa on vascular function are mediated by the absorption of monomeric flavanols into the circulation from the small intestine. As such, an understanding of the impact of the food matrix on the delivery of flavanols to the circulation is critical in assessing the potential vascular impact of a food. In the present study, we investigated the impact of carbohydrate type on flavanol absorption and metabolism from chocolate. A randomised, double-blind, three-arm cross-over study was conducted, where fifteen volunteers were randomly assigned to either a high-flavanol (266 mg) chocolate containing maltitol, a high-flavanol (251 mg) chocolate with sucrose or a low-flavanol (48 mg) chocolate with sucrose. Test chocolates were matched for micro- and macronutrients, including the alkaloids theobromine and caffeine, and were similar in taste and appearance. Total flavanol absorption was lower after consumption of the maltitol-containing test chocolate compared with following consumption of its sucrose-containing equivalent (P = 0·002). Although the O-methylation pattern observed for absorbed flavanols was unaffected by sugar type, individual levels of unmethylated ( - )-epicatechin metabolites, 3'-O-methyl-epicatechin and 4'-O-methyl-epicatechin metabolites were lower for the maltitol-containing test chocolate compared with the sucrose-containing equivalent. Despite a reduction in the total plasma pool of flavanols, the maximum time (T max) was unaffected. The present data indicate that full assessment of intervention treatments is vital in future intervention trials with flavanols and that carbohydrate content is an important determinant for the optimal delivery of flavanols to the circulation.

Neural processing of reward and punishment in young people at increased familial risk of depression

Background Abnormalities in the neural representation of rewarding and aversive stimuli have been well-described in patients with acute depression, and we previously found abnormal neural responses to rewarding and aversive sight and taste stimuli in recovered depressed patients. The aim of the present study was to determine whether similar abnormalities might be present in young people at increased familial risk of depression but with no personal history of mood disorder. Methods We therefore used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural responses to pleasant and aversive sights and tastes in 25 young people (16–21 years of age) with a biological parent with depression and 25 age- and gender-matched control subjects. Results We found that, relative to the control subjects, participants with a parental history of depression showed diminished responses in the orbitofrontal cortex to rewarding stimuli, whereas activations to aversive stimuli were increased in the lateral orbitofrontal cortex and insula. In anterior cingulate cortex the at-risk group showed blunted neural responses to both rewarding and aversive stimuli. Conclusions Our findings suggest that young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered neural representation of reward and punishment, particularly in cortical regions linked to the use of positive and negative feedback to guide adaptive behavior.

Sea-surface temperature records of Termination 1 in the Gulf of California: Challenges for seasonal and interannual analogues of tropical Pacific climate change

Centennial-scale records of sea-surface temperature and opal composition spanning the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination 1 (circa 25–6 ka) are presented here from Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California. Through the application of two organic geochemistry proxies, the U37K′ index and the TEX86H index, we present evidence for rapid, stepped changes in temperatures during deglaciation. These occur in both temperature proxies at 13 ka (∼3°C increase in 270 years), 10.0 ka (∼2°C decrease over ∼250 years) and at 8.2 ka (3°C increase in <200 years). An additional rapid warming step is also observed in TEX86H at 11.5 ka. In comparing the two temperature proxies and opal content, we consider the potential for upwelling intensity to be recorded and link this millennial-scale variability to shifting Intertropical Convergence Zone position and variations in the strength of the Subtropical High. The onset of the deglacial warming from 17 to 18 ka is comparable to a “southern hemisphere” signal, although the opal record mimics the ice-rafting events of the north Atlantic (Heinrich events). Neither the modern seasonal cycle nor El Niño/Southern Oscillation patterns provide valid analogues for the trends we observe in comparison with other regional records. Fully coupled climate model simulations confirm this result, and in combination we question whether the seasonal or interannual climate variations of the modern climate are valid analogues for the glacial and deglacial tropical Pacific.

Environmental and ecological economics in the 21st century: an age adjusted citation analysis of the influential articles, journals, authors and institutions

We investigate the influence of articles, authors, journals and institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics. We depart from studies that investigated the literature until 2001 and include a time period that has witnessed an enormous increase of importance in the field. We adjust for the age effect given the huge impact of the year of an article's publication on its influence and we show that this adjustment does make a substantial difference — especially for disaggregated units of analysis with diverse age characteristics such as articles or authors. We analyse 6597 studies on environmental and ecological economics published between 2000 and 2009. We provide rankings of the influential articles, authors, journals and institutions and find that Ecological Economics, Energy Economics and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management have the most influential articles, they publish very influential authors and their articles are cited most. The University of Maryland, Resources for the Future, the University of East Anglia and the World Bank appear to be the most influential institutions in the field of environmental and ecological economics.