Improving the quality of prediction intervals through optimal aggregation

Neural networks (NNs) are an effective tool to model nonlinear systems. However, their forecasting performance significantly drops in the presence of process uncertainties and disturbances. NN-based prediction intervals (PIs) offer an alternative solution to appropriately quantify uncertainties and disturbances associated with point forecasts. In this paper, an NN ensemble procedure is proposed to construct quality PIs. A recently developed lower-upper bound estimation method is applied to develop NN-based PIs. Then, constructed PIs from the NN ensemble members are combined using a weighted averaging mechanism. Simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm are used to optimally adjust the weights for the aggregation mechanism. The proposed method is examined for three different case studies. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method improves the average PI quality of individual NNs by 22%, 18%, and 78% for the first, second, and third case studies, respectively. The simulation study also demonstrates that a 3%-4% improvement in the quality of PIs can be achieved using the proposed method compared to the simple averaging aggregation method.

Optimal performance fee and flow of funds in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of ow of funds as an implicit incentive in the asset management industry. We build a two-period bi- nomial moral hazard model to explain the trade-o¤s between ow, per- formance and fees where e¤ort depends on the combination of implicit ( ow of funds) and explicit (performance fee) incentives. Two cases are considered. With full commitment, the investor s relevant trade-o¤ is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce e¤ort in the rst period. The more concerned the investor is with today s pay- o¤, the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the second period by penalizing negative excess return in the rst period. Without full commitment, the investor learns some symmetric and imperfect infor- mation about the ability of the manager to obtain positive excess return. In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as e¤ort choices. We show that powerful implicit incentives may explain the ow-performance relationship with a numerical solution. Besides, risk aversion explains the complementarity between performance fee and ow of funds.

Optimal provision of implicit and explicit incentives in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of the fiow of funds as an implicit incetive provided by investors to portfolio managers in a two-period relationship. We show that the fiow of funds is a powerful incentive in an asset management contract. We build a binomial moral hazard model to explain the main trade-ofIs in the relationship between fiow, fees and performance. The main assumption is that efIort depend" on the combination of implicit and explicit incentives while the probability distrioutioll function of returns depends on efIort. In the case of full commitment, the investor's relevant trade-ofI is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce efIort in the first período The more concerned the investor is with today's payoff. the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the following periods. That is. in the second period, the investor penalizes observed low returns by withdrawing resources from non-performing portfolio managers. Besides, he pays performance fee when the observed excess return is positive. When commitment is not a plausible hypothesis, we consider that the investor also learns some symmetríc and imperfect information about the ability of the manager to generate positive excess returno In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as efIort choices exerted by the portfolio manager. We show that implicit incentives can explain the fiow-performance relationship and, conversely, endogenous expected return determines incentives provision and define their optimal leveIs. We provide a numerical solution in Matlab that characterize these results.

The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.

A sensitive microextraction by packed sorbent-based methodology combined with ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography as a powerful technique for analysis of biologically active flavonols in wines

A new approach based on microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) and reversed-phase high-throughput ultra high pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) method that uses a gradient elution and diode array detection to quantitate three biologically active flavonols in wines, myricetin, quercetin, and kaempferol, is described. In addition to performing routine experiments to establish the validity of the assay to internationally accepted criteria (selectivity, linearity, sensitivity, precision, accuracy), experiments are included to assess the effect of the important experimental parameters such as the type of sorbent material (C2, C8, C18, SIL, and C8/SCX), number of extraction cycles (extract-discard), elution volume, sample volume, and ethanol content, on the MEPS performance. The optimal conditions of MEPS extraction were obtained using C8 sorbent and small sample volumes (250 μL) in five extraction cycle and in a short time period (about 5 min for the entire sample preparation step). Under optimized conditions, excellent linearity View the MathML source(Rvalues2>0.9963), limits of detection of 0.006 μg mL−1 (quercetin) to 0.013 μg mL−1 (myricetin) and precision within 0.5–3.1% were observed for the target flavonols. The average recoveries of myricetin, quercetin and kaempferol for real samples were 83.0–97.7% with relative standard deviation (RSD, %) lower than 1.6%. The results obtained showed that the most abundant flavonol in the analyzed samples was myricetin (5.8 ± 3.7 μg mL−1). Quercetin (0.97 ± 0.41 μg mL−1) and kaempferol (0.66 ± 0.24 μg mL−1) were found in a lower concentration. The optimized MEPSC8 method was compared with a reverse-phase solid-phase extraction (SPE) procedure using as sorbent a macroporous copolymer made from a balanced ratio of two monomers, the lipophilic divinylbenzene and the hydrophilic N-vinylpyrrolidone (Oasis HLB) were used as reference. MEPSC8 approach offers an attractive alternative for analysis of flavonols in wines, providing a number of advantages including highest extraction efficiency (from 85.9 ± 0.9% to 92.1 ± 0.5%) in the shortest extraction time with low solvent consumption, fast sample throughput, more environmentally friendly and easy to perform.

Pituitary Apoplexy After a Single Dose of Long-Acting Octreotide

Pituitary apoplexy (PA) is a rare and potentially life-threatening syndrome resulting from an acute infarction or hemorrhage of the pituitary gland. Although the pathogenesis is not fully understood, some predisposing factors such as pituitary stimulation tests, diabetes mellitus, anticoagulant or antiplatelet aggregation therapy, head trauma, and high blood pressure may play a role in its pathophysiology. Octreotide is the mainstay of medical treatment for acromegaly. The majority of reported complications of octreotide therapy are gastrointestinal. We report the case of a 51-year-old acromegalic woman who developed pituitary apoplexy within the context of high blood pressure and a single dose of long-acting octreotide. Our data suggest that the combination of hypertension and octreotide therapy enhances the risk of pituitary apoplexy.

Parametric evaluation of methotrimeprazine-midazolam-ketamine and methotrimeprazine-midazolam-ketamine-xylazine combination in dogs

OBJETIVO: Avaliar os parâmetros de cães anestesiados com diferentes protocolos de fármacos dissociativos por infusão intravenosa contínua. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados 30 cães, machos e fêmeas, clinicamente sadios, distribuídos aleatoriamente em três grupos (G1,G2 e G3) (*)). em G1 utilizou-se levomepromazina como medicação pré-anestésica (MPA), midazolam-cetamina pela via intravenosa em bolus para indução e midazolam-cetamina em infusão intravenosa contínua por 60 minutos para manutenção. em G2 procedeu-se da mesma forma que em G1 elevando-se, porém, a dose de midazolam durante a manutenção. em G3 repetiu-se o tratamento empregado em G2, acrescentando-se a xilazina à manutenção. Após a indução, iniciou-se imediatamente a manutenção anestésica, realizando-se aferições, 15 minutos depois da MPA, em intervalos de 10 minutos, durante a manutenção (M0 a M7). RESULTADOS: em G3 ocorreu bradicardia, bloqueio átrio-ventricular, bradipnéia e hipoxemia e em G1 e G2, discreta hipotensão. CONCLUSÃO: A via intravenosa contínua apresentou vantagens quanto a: não oscilação dos parâmetros e redução no período de recuperação anestésica. A elevação da dose de midazolam resultou em discretas variações paramétricas, estas, acentuadas pelo uso da xilazina, que causou hipoxemia, bradiarritmia, diminuição da freqüência respiratória e volume minuto.

FTY720 in combination with cyclosporine - an analysis of skin allograft survival and renal function

Acute and chronic nephrotoxicity caused by CsA Continuous administration impair kidney allograft survival. Several clinical and experimental protocols have shown benefits to the kidney after decreasing CsA dose, withdrawing the drug or delaying its introduction after transplantation.FTY720 is a new Compound that has immunosuppressive characteristics and increase allograft survival in animal models without causing the side effects of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). FTY720 described mechanism of action that consists to alter the lymphocyte migration pattern without impairment of the immune system response against pathogens.In our mice model, FTY720 administered alone or in combination with CsA during 21 days increased skin allograft survival in a fully mismatched strain combination and did not cause significant changes in renal function. Moreover, renal structure was normal in all groups suggesting that at low doses (10 mg/kg/day) CsA can be associated during short-term period to other immunosuppressive drugs, i.e. FTY720 without affecting the kidney.Combination of immunosuppressive compounds with FTY720 and/or delayed introduction of low cyclosporine dose Could prevent graft rejection and avoid nephrotoxicity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The results of a randomized trial looking at 24 weeks vs 48 weeks of treatment with peginterferon alpha-2a (40 kDa) and ribavirin combination therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 1

Peginterferon-alpha plus ribavirin is the most effective therapy for chronic hepatitis C. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of peginterferon alpha-2a (40 kDa) plus ribavirin on sustained virological response (SVR) when administered for 24 vs 48 weeks in genotype 1 naive patients. One hundred and seventeen patients were enrolled in this controlled trial. Genotype 1 patients were randomized to 24 weeks treatment vs 48 weeks treatment. Genotype non-1 patients received 24 weeks treatment as an observational group. Outcomes were SVR (defined by hepatitis C virus-RNA-negative at week 24 of follow-up) and tolerability across the study period. The end-of-treatment response was 59% for genotype 1 (24 weeks treatment), 80% for genotype 1 (48 weeks treatment) and 92% for genotype non-1 (24 weeks treatment). The end-of-follow-up response was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.2-36.4) (genotype 1, 24 weeks) and 48% (95% CI: 30.2-66.9; P = 0.0175) (genotype 1, 48 weeks). Among genotype non-1, SVR was 76% (95% CI: 62.3-86.5). There were no unexpected adverse events.Almost half of the genotype 1 patients achieved an SVR after 48 weeks treatment with peginterferon alpha-2a (40 kDa) and low-dose ribavirin and confirmed that they should be treated for 48 weeks. Safety profile was acceptable.

Single dose of a vaccine based on DNA encoding mycobacterial hsp65 protein plus TDM-loaded PLGA microspheres protects mice against a virulent strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The high incidence of tuberculosis around the world and the inability of BCG to protect certain populations clearly indicate that an improved vaccine against tuberculosis is needed. A single antigen, the mycobacterial heat shock protein hsp65, is sufficient to protect BALB/c mice against challenge infection when administered as DNA vaccine in a three-dose-based schedule. In order to simplify the vaccination schedule, we coencapsulated hsp65-DNA and trehalose dimicolate (TDM) into biodegradable poly(DL-lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) microspheres. BALB/c mice immunized with a single dose of DNA-hsp65/TDM-1oaded microspheres produced high levels of IgG2a subtype antibody and high amounts of IFN-gamma in the supernatant of spleen cell cultures. DNA-hsp65/TDM-loaded microspheres were also able to induce high IFN-gamma production in bulk lung cells from challenged mice and confer protection as effective as that attained after three doses of naked DNA administration. This new formulation also allowed a ten-fold reduction in the DNA dose when compared to naked DNA. Thus, this combination of DNA vaccine and adjuvants with immunomodulatory and carrier properties holds the potential for an improved vaccine against tuberculosis.

Associacao de opioides lipofilicos a bupivacaina na anestesia peridural. Ha vantagem no aumento da dose do opioide?

Background and Objectives: - The effects of associating lipophilic opioids to local anesthetics in epidural anesthesia are not well defined. There are still questions and controversies about opioid doses to be used and their major effects in the epidural block. This study aimed at evaluating the epidural block effects in humans of the association of different fentanyl and sufentanil doses to bupivacaine with 1:200.000 epinephrine. Methods: - A double-blind randomized study was performed in 94 patients of both genders, physical status ASA I, aged between 18 and 60 years, submitted to lower abdomen, perineal or lower limb surgery. Patients without preanesthetic medication were epidurally injected with 100 mg (20 ml) 0.5% bupivacaine, 0.1 mg (0.1 ml) 1%o epinephrine plus a combination of the following drugs: BUPI Group (15 patients): 2 ml of 0.9% saline solution (SS); FENT50 Group (19 patients): 50 μg (1 ml) fentanyl + 1 ml SS; FENT100 Group (20 patients): 100 μg (2 ml) fentanyl; SUF30 Group (20 patients): 30 μg (0.6 ml) sufentanil + SS (1.4 ml); SUF100 Group (20 patients): 50 μg (1 ml) sufentanil + SS (1 ml). The following parameters were studied: onset of sensory block, analgesic block (onset time) in T12, T10 and T8, analgesic block duration in T10 and T12, motor block degree, consciousness degree, need for supplemental perioperative sedation and analgesia, hypotension, bradycardia and peri and post operative side-effects, analgesia duration, proportion of patients needing supplemental analgesia and evaluation of postoperative pain (pain analog visual scale). Results: Groups were demographically uniform. The addition of fentanyl or sufentanil did not alter major characteristics of perioperative epidural block and has not significantly increased postoperative analgesia duration as compared to the use of bupivacaine only. However, the addition of lipophilic opioids has increased the quality of perioperative anesthetic block, translated into a lesser need for supplemental analgesia (p < 0.02). The increased dose of fentanyl and especially of sufentanil has increased the incidence of perioperative drowsiness (p < 0.001) without significant increase in other side effects. Conclusions: In the conditions and doses used, the addition of lipophilic opioids to bupivacaine and the increased dose of lipophilic opioids have improved anesthetic block quality without changes in the epidural block characteristics or a significant increase in side effects, with the exception of drowsiness mainly caused by sufentanil. However, they were not able to provide a significant increase in postoperative analgesia duration.

Influence of diltiazem in combination with a sucrose-rich diet on gingival alterations in rats

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of diltiazem in combination with a sucrose-rich diet on gingival alterations in rats. One hundred and twenty male Holtzman rats were randomly assigned to 10 groups (n = 12), being 2 control groups treated with saline and 8 test groups treated with diltiazem in daily doses of 5, 25, 50 and 100 mg/kg during 40 or 60 days. Afterwards, the mandibles were removed for macroscopic, histologic and histometric analyses of the buccal gingiva of the mandibular right first molar. No macroscopic characteristic of gingival overgrowth was observed in any of the groups. The microscopic analysis showed characteristics of normality with inflammatory cells only adjacent to the crevicular epithelium in all groups for both periods. The histometric analysis showed significant differences only for the epithelial tissue area in the 40-day period (Kruskal-Wallis; P = 0.032). Comparing the periods, significant differences regarding the connective and epithelial tissue areas were observed only in the group treated with a 25 mg/kg dose (Mann-Whitney; P = 0.004 and P = 0.007, respectively). Oral administration of diltiazem in combination with a sucrose-rich diet did not induce gingival alterations in rats. © 2009 Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Odontológica.

Induction pegylated interferon Alfa-2a and high dose ribavirin do not increase SVR in heavy patients with HCV genotype 1 and high viral loads

Background & Aims Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1, body weight <85 kg, and high baseline viral load respond poorly to standard doses of pegylated interferon (peginterferon) and ribavirin. We evaluated intensified therapy with peginterferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin. Methods This double-blind randomized trial included HCV genotype 1-infected outpatients from hepatology clinics with body weight <85 kg and HCV RNA titer <400,000 IU/mL. Patients were randomized to 180 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 48 weeks plus 1200 mg/day ribavirin (standard of care) (group A, n = 191) or 1400/1600 mg/day ribavirin (group B, n = 189). Additional groups included 360 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 12 weeks then 180 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 36 weeks plus 1200 mg/day ribavirin (group C, n = 382) or 1400/1600 mg/day ribavirin (group D, n = 383). Follow-up lasted 24 weeks after treatment. Results Sustained virologic response rates (HCV RNA level <15 IU/mL at end of follow-up) in groups A, B, C, and D were 38%, 43%, 44%, and 41%, respectively. There were no significant differences among the 4 groups or between pooled peginterferon alfa-2a regimens (A + B vs C + D: odds ratio [OR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.831.39; P = .584) or pooled ribavirin regimens (A + C vs B + D: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.791.28; P = .974). Conclusions In patients infected with HCV genotype 1 who are difficult to treat (high viral load, body weight <85 kg), a 12-week induction regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a and/or higher-dose ribavirin is not more effective than the standard regimen. © 2010 AGA Institute.

Efficacy and safety of travoprost 0.004%/timolol 0.5% fixed combination as transition therapy in patients previously on prostaglandin analog monotherapy

Purpose: To assess the safety and efficacy of transitioning patients whose intraocular pressure (IOP) had been insufficiently controlled on prostaglandin analog (PGA) monotherapy to treatment with travoprost 0.004%/timolol 0.5% fixed combination with benzalkonium chloride (TTFC). Methods: This prospective, multicenter, open-label, historical controlled, single-arm study transitioned patients who had primary open-angle glaucoma, pigment dispersion glaucoma, or ocular hypertension and who required further IOP reduction from PGA monotherapy to oncedaily treatment with TTFC for 12 weeks. IOP and safety (adverse events, corrected distance visual acuity, and slit-lamp biomicroscopy) were assessed at baseline, week 4, and week 12. A solicited ocular symptom survey was administered at baseline and at week 12. Patients and investigators reported their medication preference at week 12. Results: Of 65 patients enrolled, 43 had received prior travoprost therapy and 22 had received prior nontravoprost therapy (n = 18, bimatoprost; n = 4, latanoprost). In the total population, mean IOP was significantly reduced from baseline (P = 0.000009), showing a 16.8% reduction after 12 weeks of TTFC therapy. In the study subgroups, mean IOP was significantly reduced from baseline to week 12 (P = 0.0001) in the prior travoprost cohort (19.0% reduction) and in the prior nontravoprost cohort (13.1% reduction). Seven mild, ocular, treatment-related adverse events were reported. Of the ten ocular symptom questions, eight had numerically lower percentages with TTFC compared with prior PGA monotherapy and two had numerically higher percentages with TTFC (dry eye symptoms and ocular stinging/burning). At week 12, TTFC was preferred over prior therapy for 84.2% of patients (48 of 57) by the patients themselves, and for 94.7% of patients (54 of 57) by their physicians. Conclusion: When TTFC replaced PGA monotherapy in patients whose IOP had been uncontrolled, the outcome was a significant reduction in IOP and an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. Most patients and investigators preferred TTFC to prior PGA monotherapy. © 2012 Costa et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

Antinociceptive and Behavioral Effects of Methadone Alone or in Combination with Detomidine in Conscious Horses

The antinociceptive and behavioral effects of methadone (MET) alone or combined with detomidine (DET) were studied in horses. Intravenous treatments were randomly administered in a two-phase crossover study. In phase 1, six horses were treated with saline (control) or 0.2 or 0.5 mg/kg methadone (MET0.2; MET0.5, respectively). In phase 2, six horses were treated with 0.01 mg/kg DET alone or with DET combined with 0.2 mg/kg MET (DET/MET0.2). Thermal nociceptive threshold (TNT) and electrical nociceptive thresholds (ENT) were recorded by using a heat projection lamp and electrodes placed in the coronary band of the thoracic limbs, respectively. Spontaneous locomotor activity (SLA) was studied by movement sensors in the stall (phase 1). Chin-to-floor distance was assessed in phase 2. In phase 1, the TNT increased significantly for 30 minute after MET0.5 but not after saline or MET0.2. Hyperesthesia and ataxia were observed in 2 of 6 and 6 of 6 horses after MET0.2 and MET0.5, respectively. SLA increased significantly for 120 minutes after MET in a dose-dependent way, but not after placebo. In phase 2, DET and DET/MET0.2 significantly increased the TNT and ENT above baseline for 15 and 30 minutes, respectively; thresholds were significantly higher with DET/MET0.2 than with DET at the same times. Chin-to-floor distance decreased significantly from baseline for 30 minutes, and no excitatory behavior was observed in both treatments. Although the higher dose of MET induced short-acting antinociception, the associated adverse effects may contraindicate its clinical use. The lower dose of MET potentiated DET-induced antinociception without adverse effects, which might be useful under clinical circumstances. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.