912 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off


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The successful establishment and growth of mixed-species forest plantations requires that complementary or facilitatory species be identified. This can be difficult in many tropical areas because the growth characteristics of endemic species are often unknown, particularly when grown at potentially higher densities in plantations than in natural forests. Here, we investigate whether wood density is a useful and readily accessible trait for choosing complementary species for mixed species plantations. Wood density represents the carbon investment per unit volume of stem with a trade-off generally found between fast (low wood density) and slow (high wood density) growing species. To do this, we use data collected from 18 highly diverse mixed species plantations (4–23 mostly native species) aged from 6 to 11 years at the time of data collection located on Leyte Island, Philippines. We found significant negative correlations between wood densities and the height of the most abundant species, as well as with measures of overall stand growth and tree diameter size distribution. Not only do species with denser woods have slower growth rates, but also mixed-species plantations with higher average wood density and higher stem density were also less productive, at least in these young plantations. Similarly, stands with a high diversity in wood densities were less productive. There is growing interest in making greater use of native multi-species mixtures in smallholder and community planting programs in the tropics, and our results show databases of wood density values may help improve their design. In the early development stages of plantations, canopy closure and rapid height growth are usually key silvicultural targets, and wood density values can predict the rapid height development of species. If plantations are being grown for the livelihood of small landholders then the best target is to choose some species with different wood densities. This allows an early harvest of low-wood density species for early income, and will also reduce competition for slower growing trees with higher wood densities for later income generation.

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Purpose: The therapeutic ratio for ionising radiation treatment of tumour is a trade-off between normal tissue side-effects and tumour control. Application of a radioprotector to normal tissue can reduce side-effects. Here we study the effects of a new radioprotector on the cellular response to radiation. Methylproamine is a DNA-binding radioprotector which, on the basis of published pulse radiolysis studies, acts by repair of transient radiation-induced oxidative species on DNA. To substantiate this hypothesis, we studied protection by methylproamine at both clonogenic survival and radiation-induced DNA damage, assessed by γH2AX (histone 2AX phosphorylation at serine 139) focus formation endpoints. Materials and methods: The human keratinocyte cell line FEP1811 was used to study clonogenic survival and yield of γH2AX foci following irradiation (137Cs γ-rays) of cells exposed to various concentrations of methylproamine. Uptake of methylproamine into cell nuclei was measured in parallel. Results: The extent of radioprotection at the clonogenic survival endpoint increased with methylproamine concentration up to a maximum dose modification factor (DMF) of 2.0 at 10 μM. At least 0.1 fmole/nucleus of methylproamine is required to achieve a substantial level of radioprotection (DMF of 1.3) with maximum protection (DMF of 2.0) achieved at 0.23 fmole/nucleus. The γH2AX focus yield per cell nucleus 45 min after irradiation decreased with drug concentration with a DMF of 2.5 at 10 μM. Conclusions: These results are consistent with the hypothesis that radioprotection by methylproamine is mediated by attenuation of the extent of initial DNA damage.

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Background In vision, there is a trade-off between sensitivity and resolution, and any eye which maximises information gain at low light levels needs to be large. This imposes exacting constraints upon vision in nocturnal flying birds. Eyes are essentially heavy, fluid-filled chambers, and in flying birds their increased size is countered by selection for both reduced body mass and the distribution of mass towards the body core. Freed from these mass constraints, it would be predicted that in flightless birds nocturnality should favour the evolution of large eyes and reliance upon visual cues for the guidance of activity. Methodology/Principal Findings We show that in Kiwi (Apterygidae), flightlessness and nocturnality have, in fact, resulted in the opposite outcome. Kiwi show minimal reliance upon vision indicated by eye structure, visual field topography, and brain structures, and increased reliance upon tactile and olfactory information. Conclusions/Significance This lack of reliance upon vision and increased reliance upon tactile and olfactory information in Kiwi is markedly similar to the situation in nocturnal mammals that exploit the forest floor. That Kiwi and mammals evolved to exploit these habitats quite independently provides evidence for convergent evolution in their sensory capacities that are tuned to a common set of perceptual challenges found in forest floor habitats at night and which cannot be met by the vertebrate visual system. We propose that the Kiwi visual system has undergone adaptive regressive evolution driven by the trade-off between the relatively low rate of gain of visual information that is possible at low light levels, and the metabolic costs of extracting that information.

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Bats (Chiroptera) are generally awkward crawlers, but the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) and the New Zealand short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) have independently evolved the ability to manoeuvre well on the ground. In this study we describe the kinematics of locomotion in both species, and the kinetics of locomotion in M. tuberculata. We sought to determine whether these bats move terrestrially the way other quadrupeds do, or whether they possess altogether different patterns of movement on the ground than are observed in quadrupeds that do not fly. Using high-speed video analyses of bats moving on a treadmill, we observed that both species possess symmetrical lateral-sequence gaits similar to the kinematically defined walks of a broad range of tetrapods. At high speeds, D. rotundus use an asymmetrical bounding gait that appears to converge on the bounding gaits of small terrestrial mammals, but with the roles of the forelimbs and hindlimbs reversed. This gait was not performed by M. tuberculata. Many animals that possess a single kinematic gait shift with increasing speed from a kinetic walk (where kinetic and potential energy of the centre of mass oscillate out of phase from each other) to a kinetic run (where they oscillate in phase). To determine whether the single kinematic gait of M. tuberculata meets the kinetic definition of a walk, a run, or a gait that functions as a walk at low speed and a run at high speed, we used force plates and high-speed video recordings to characterize the energetics of the centre of mass in that species. Although oscillations in kinetic and potential energy were of similar magnitudes, M. tuberculata did not use pendulum-like exchanges of energy between them to the extent that many other quadrupedal animals do, and did not transition from a kinetic walk to kinetic run with increasing speed. The gait of M. tuberculata is kinematically a walk, but kinetically run-like at all speeds.

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Road collisions negatively affect the lives of hundreds of Canadians per year. Unfortunately, safety has been typically neglected from management systems. It is common to find that a great deal of effort has been devoted to develop and implement systems capable of achieving and sustaining good levels of condition. It is relatively recent that road safety has become an important objective. Managing a network of roads is not an easy task; it requires long, medium and short term plans to maintain, rehabilitate and upgrade aging assets, reduce and mitigate accident exposure, likelihood and severity. This thesis presents a basis for incorporating road safety into road management systems; two case studies were developed; one limited by available data and another from sufficient information. A long term analysis was used to allocate improvements for condition and safety of roads and bridges, at the network level. It was confirmed that a safety index could be used to obtain a first cut model; meanwhile potential for improvement which is a difference between observed and predicted number of accidents was capable of capturing the degree of safety of individual segments. It was found that the completeness of the system resulted in savings because of the economies obtained from trade-off optimization. It was observed that safety improvements were allocated at the beginning of the analysis in order to reduce the extent of issues, which translated into a systematic reduction of potential for improvement up to a point of near constant levels, which were hypothesized to relate to those unavoidable collisions from human error or vehicle failure.

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This paper presents a performance-based optimisation approach for conducting trade-off analysis between safety (roads) and condition (bridges and roads). Safety was based on potential for improvement (PFI). Road condition was based on surface distresses and bridge condition was based on apparent age per subcomponent. The analysis uses a non-monetised optimisation that expanded upon classical Pareto optimality by observing performance across time. It was found that achievement of good results was conditioned by the availability of early age treatments and impacted by a frontier effect preventing the optimisation algorithm from realising of the long-term benefits of deploying actions when approaching the end of the analysis period. A disaggregated bridge condition index proved capable of improving levels of service in bridge subcomponents.

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Whether ethical screening affects portfolio performance is an important question that is yet to be settled in the literature. This paper aims to shed further light on this question by examining the performance of a large global sample of Islamic equity funds (IEFs) from 1984 to 2010. We find that IEFs underperform conventional funds by an average of 40 basis points per month, consistent with the underperformance hypothesis. In line with popular media claims that Islamic funds are a safer investment, IEFs outperformed conventional funds during the recent banking crisis. However, we find no such outperformance for other crises or high volatility periods. Based on fund holdings-based data, we provide evidence of a negative curvilinear relation between fund performance and ethical screening intensity, consistent with a return trade-off to being more ethical.

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The requirement of isolated relays is one of the prime obstacles in utilizing sequential slotted cooperative protocols for Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET). Significant research advancement has taken place to improve the diversity multiplexing trade-off (DMT) of cooperative protocols in conventional mobile networks without much attention on vehicular ad-hoc networks. We have extended the concept of sequential slotted amplify and forward (SAF) protocols in the context of urban vehicular ad-hoc networks. Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) reception is used at relaying vehicular nodes to isolate the relays effectively. The proposed approach adds a pragmatic value to the sequential slotted cooperative protocols while achieving attractive performance gains in urban VANETs. We have analysed the DMT bounds and the outage probabilities of the proposed scheme. The results suggest that the proposed scheme can achieve an optimal DMT similar to the DMT upper bound of the sequential SAF. Furthermore, the outage performance of the proposed scheme outperforms the SAF protocol by 2.5 dB at a target outage probability of 10-4.

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Railway capacity determination and expansion are very important topics. In prior research, the competition between different entities such as train services and train types, on different network corridors however have been ignored, poorly modelled, or else assumed to be static. In response, a comprehensive set of multi-objective models have been formulated in this article to perform a trade-off analysis. These models determine the total absolute capacity of railway networks as the most equitable solution according to a clearly defined set of competing objectives. The models also perform a sensitivity analysis of capacity with respect to those competing objectives. The models have been extensively tested on a case study and their significant worth is shown. The models were solved using a variety of techniques however an adaptive E constraint method was shown to be most superior. In order to identify only the best solution, a Simulated Annealing meta-heuristic was implemented and tested. However a linearization technique based upon separable programming was also developed and shown to be superior in terms of solution quality but far less in terms of computational time.

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The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

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Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

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This thesis focused upon the development of improved capacity analysis and capacity planning techniques for railways. A number of innovations were made and were tested on a case study of a real national railway. These techniques can reduce the time required to perform decision making activities that planners and managers need to perform. As all railways need to be expanded to meet increasing demands, the presumption that analytical capacity models can be used to identify how best to improve an existing network at least cost, was fully investigated. Track duplication was the mechanism used to expanding a network's capacity, and two variant capacity expansion models were formulated. Another outcome of this thesis is the development and validation of bi objective models for capacity analysis. These models regulate the competition for track access and perform a trade-off analysis. An opportunity to develop more general mulch-objective approaches was identified.

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Business processes are prone to continuous and unexpected changes. Process workers may start executing a process differently in order to adjust to changes in workload, season, guidelines or regulations for example. Early detection of business process changes based on their event logs – also known as business process drift detection – enables analysts to identify and act upon changes that may otherwise affect process performance. Previous methods for business process drift detection are based on an exploration of a potentially large feature space and in some cases they require users to manually identify the specific features that characterize the drift. Depending on the explored feature set, these methods may miss certain types of changes. This paper proposes a fully automated and statistically grounded method for detecting process drift. The core idea is to perform statistical tests over the distributions of runs observed in two consecutive time windows. By adaptively sizing the window, the method strikes a trade-off between classification accuracy and drift detection delay. A validation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that the method accurately detects typical change patterns and scales up to the extent it is applicable for online drift detection.

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The last three decades have been difficult for companies and industry. In an increasingly competitive international business climate with shifting national environmental regulations, higher standards are being demanded by the consumer and community groups, not-to-mention the escalating cost of primary resources such as water, steel and minerals. The cause of these pressures is the traditional notion held by business executives and engineers that there is an inherent trade off between eco-efficiency and improving the economic bottom line. However there is significant evidence and examples of best practice to show that there is in fact no trade-off between the environment and the economy if sustainable development through continual improvement is adopted. It is highly possible therefore for companies to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice, where along the transition significant business opportunities can be taken advantage of. Companies are by their very nature dynamic, influential and highly capable of adapting to change. Making an organisational transformation to a sustainable business is not outside the capacity of the typical company, who know much of what is needed already to change their activities to satisfy current market demands while achieving competitiveness. However in order to make the transition towards sustainable business practice companies require some key mechanisms such as accurate information on methodologies and opportunities, understanding of the financial and non-financial incentives, permission from stakeholders and shareholders, understanding of the emerging market opportunities, a critical mass of leaders in their sector and demonstrated case studies, and awarding appropriate risk-taking activities undertaken by engineers and CEOs. Satisfying these requirements will adopt an innovative culture within the company that strives for continual improvement and successfully transforms itself to achieve competitiveness in the 21st Century. This paper will summarise the experiences of The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and its partners in assisting organisations to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice through several initiatives. The Natural Advantage of Nations publication provides the critical information required by business leaders and engineers to set the context of sustainable business practice. The Profiting in a Carbon Constrained World report, developed with Natural Capitalism Inc led by Hunter Lovins, summarises the opportunities available to companies to take advantage of the carbon trading market mechanisms such as the Chicago Climate Exchange and European Climate Exchange. The Sustainability Helix then guides the company through the transition by identifying the key tools and methodologies required by companies to reduce environmental loading while dramatically improving resource productivity and achieving competitiveness. Finally, the Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program delivers the key engineering information required by companies and university departments to deliver sustainable engineering solutions. The initiatives are of varying complexity and level of application, however all are designed to provide key staff the critical information required to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice. It is then their responsibility to apply and teach their knowledge to the rest of the organisation.

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A key question in diffusion imaging is how many diffusion-weighted images suffice to provide adequate signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for studies of fiber integrity. Motion, physiological effects, and scan duration all affect the achievable SNR in real brain images, making theoretical studies and simulations only partially useful. We therefore scanned 50 healthy adults with 105-gradient high-angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) at 4T. From gradient image subsets of varying size (6 ≤ N ≤ 94) that optimized a spherical angular distribution energy, we created SNR plots (versus gradient numbers) for seven common diffusion anisotropy indices: fractional and relative anisotropy (FA, RA), mean diffusivity (MD), volume ratio (VR), geodesic anisotropy (GA), its hyperbolic tangent (tGA), and generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA). SNR, defined in a region of interest in the corpus callosum, was near-maximal with 58, 66, and 62 gradients for MD, FA, and RA, respectively, and with about 55 gradients for GA and tGA. For VR and GFA, SNR increased rapidly with more gradients. SNR was optimized when the ratio of diffusion-sensitized to non-sensitized images was 9.13 for GA and tGA, 10.57 for FA, 9.17 for RA, and 26 for MD and VR. In orientation density functions modeling the HARDI signal as a continuous mixture of tensors, the diffusion profile reconstruction accuracy rose rapidly with additional gradients. These plots may help in making trade-off decisions when designing diffusion imaging protocols.