Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

February 2007: The Smithsonian Institute

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Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule C & D, three weeks each, tuition $550-$650.00, New Times in London $1,735.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi (reverse)

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule C & D, three weeks each, tuition $550-$650.00, New Times in London $1,735.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Don Adleta

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule A & B, tuition $410.00, Applied Semiotics for Design Seminar $625.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule B, C & D, tuition $450.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi (reverse)

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule B, C & D, tuition $450.00

Design of the main racetrack microtron accelerator end magnets of the Institute of Physics of University of São Paulo

This work deals with the design of the Institute of Physics of the University of São Paulo (IFUSP) main racetrack microtron accelerator end magnets. This is the last stage of acceleration, comprised of an accelerating section (1.04 m) and two end magnets (0.1585 T), in which a 5.10 MeV beam, produced by a racetrack microtron booster has its energy raised up to 31.15 MeV after 28 accelerations. POISSON code was used to give the final configuration that includes auxiliary pole pieces (clamps) and auxiliary homogenizing gaps. The clamps create a reverse fringe field region and avoid the vertical defocusing and the horizontal displacement of the beam produced by extended fringe fields; PTRACE code was used to perform the trajectory calculations in the fringe field region. The auxiliary homogenizing gaps improve the field uniformity as they create a magnetic shower that provides uniformity of ±0.3%, before the introduction of the correcting coils that will be attached to the pole faces. This method of correction, used in the IFUSP racetrack microtron booster magnets, enabled uniformity of ±0.001% in an average field of 0.1 T and will also be employed for these end magnets. © 1999 The American Physical Society.

From capital surges to drought: seeking stability for emerging economies

Includes bibliography

An Educational international partnership responding to local needs: Process evaluation of the Brazil FAIMER Regional Institute

The Brazilian public health system requires competent professionals sensitive to the needs of the population. The Foundation for Advancement of International Medical Education and Research (FAIMER) provides a two-year faculty development programme for health professions educators, aiming to build leadership in education to improve health. A partnership with governmental initiatives and FAIMER was established for meeting these needs. This paper describes the initial process evaluation results of the Brazilian FAIMER Institute Fellowship (FAIMER BR). Methods: Data were analysed for the classes 2007-2010 regarding: application processes; innovation project themes; retrospective post-pre self-ratings of knowledge acquisition; and professional development portfolios. Results: Seventeen of 26 Brazilian states were represented among 98 Fellows, predominantly from public medical schools (75.5%) and schools awarded Ministry of Health grants to align education with public health services (89.8%). One-third (n = 32) of Fellows' innovation projects were related to these grants. Significant increases occurred in all topic subscales on self-report of knowledge acquisition (eff ect sizes, 1.21-2.77). In the follow up questionnaire, 63% of Fellows reported that their projects were incorporated into the curriculum or institutional policies. The majority reported that the programme deepened their knowledge (98%), provided new ideas about medical education (90%) and provided skills for conflict management (63%). One-half of the Fellows reported sustained benefits from the programme listserv and other communications, including breadth of expertise, establishment of research collaboration and receiving emotional support. Conclusion: Contributors to initial programme success included alignment of curriculum with governmental initiatives, curriculum design merging educational technology, leadership and management skills and central role of an innovation educational project responding to local needs.