Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Multi-program benchmark definition

© 2015 IEEE.Although definition of single-program benchmarks is relatively straight-forward-a benchmark is a program plus a specific input-definition of multi-program benchmarks is more complex. Each program may have a different runtime and they may have different interactions depending on how they align with each other. While prior work has focused on sampling multiprogram benchmarks, little attention has been paid to defining the benchmarks in their entirety. In this work, we propose a four-tuple that formally defines multi-program benchmarks in a well-defined way. We then examine how four different classes of benchmarks created by varying the elements of this tuple align with real-world use-cases. We evaluate the impact of these variations on real hardware, and see drastic variations in results between different benchmarks constructed from the same programs. Notable differences include significant speedups versus slowdowns (e.g., +57% vs -5% or +26% vs -18%), and large differences in magnitude even when the results are in the same direction (e.g., 67% versus 11%).

A generational scheme for partitioning graphs

Graph partitioning divides a graph into several pieces by cutting edges. Very effective heuristic partitioning algorithms have been developed which run in real-time, but it is unknown how good the partitions are since the problem is, in general, NP-complete. This paper reports an evolutionary search algorithm for finding benchmark partitions. Distinctive features are the transmission and modification of whole subdomains (the partitioned units) that act as genes, and the use of a multilevel heuristic algorithm to effect the crossover and mutations. Its effectiveness is demonstrated by improvements on previously established benchmarks.

The semi-automatic parallelisation of scientific application codes using a computer aided parallelisation toolkit

The shared-memory programming model can be an effective way to achieve parallelism on shared memory parallel computers. Historically however, the lack of a programming standard using directives and the limited scalability have affected its take-up. Recent advances in hardware and software technologies have resulted in improvements to both the performance of parallel programs with compiler directives and the issue of portability with the introduction of OpenMP. In this study, the Computer Aided Parallelisation Toolkit has been extended to automatically generate OpenMP-based parallel programs with nominal user assistance. We categorize the different loop types and show how efficient directives can be placed using the toolkit's in-depth interprocedural analysis. Examples are taken from the NAS parallel benchmarks and a number of real-world application codes. This demonstrates the great potential of using the toolkit to quickly parallelise serial programs as well as the good performance achievable on up to 300 processors for hybrid message passing-directive parallelisations.

Legal myth-making: Medea and the legal representation of the feminine ‘other'

The Law operates by, and through, the creation of ideal benchmarks of conduct that are deemed to be representative of the behavioural norm. It is in this sense that it could be contended that the Law utilises, and relies on, myths in the same way as do other disciplines, notably psycho-analysis. It is possible to go even further and argue that the use of a created narrative mythology is essential to the establishment of a defined legal benchmark of behaviour by which the female defendant is assessed, judged and punished. While mythology expresses and symbolizes cultural and political behaviour, it is the Law that embodies and prescribes punitive sanctions. This element represents a powerful literary strand in classical mythology. This may be seen, for instance, in Antigone’s appeal to the Law as justification for her conduct, as much as in Medea’s challenge to the Law though her desire for vengeance. Despite its image of neutral, objective rationality, the Law, in creating and sustaining the ideals of legally-sanctioned conduct, engages in the same literary processes of imagination, reason and emotion that are central to the creation and re-creation of myth. The (re-)presentation of the Medea myth in literature (especially in theatre) and in art, finds its echo in the theatre of the courtroom where wronged women who have refused to passively accept their place, have instead responded with violence. Consequently, the Medea myth, in its depiction of the (un)feminine, serves as a template for the Law’s judgment of ‘conventional’ feminine conduct in the roles of wife and mother. Medea is an image of deviant femininity, as is Lady Macbeth and the countless other un-feminine literary and mythological women who challenge the power of the dominant culture and its ally, the Law. These women stand opposed to the other dominant theme of both literature and Law: the conformist woman, the passive dupe, who are victims of male oppression – women such as Ariadne of Naxos and Tess of the D’Ubervilles – and who are subsequently consumed by the Law, much as Semele is consumed by the fire of Jupiter’s gaze upon her. All of these women, the former as well as the latter, have their real-life counterparts in the pages of the Law Reports. As Fox puts it, “these women have come to bear the weight of the cultural stereotypes and preconceptions about women who kill.”

Fishery Exploitation and Stock Assessment of the Endangered Nassau Grouper, Epinephelus Striatus (Actinopterygii: Perciformes: Serranidae), in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The Nassau grouper, Epinephelus striatus (Bloch, 1792), is an endangered species that has been historically overexploited in numerous fisheries throughout its range in the Caribbean and tropical West Atlantic. Data relating fishery exploitation levels to stock abundance of the species are deficient, and protective regulations for the Nassau grouper are yet to be implemented in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI). The goal of this study was to conduct a stock assessment and evaluate the exploitation status of the Nassau grouper in the TCI. Materials and methods. Calibrated length cohort analysis was applied to published fisheries data on Nassau grouper landings in the TCI. The total lengths of Nassau groupers among the catches of spearfishers, lobster trappers, and deep sea fishers on the island of South Caicos during 2006 and 2008 were used with estimates of growth, natural mortality, and total annual landings to derive exploitation benchmarks. Results. The TCI stock experienced low to moderate fishing mortality (0.28, 0.18) and exploitation rates (0.49, 0.38) during the period of the study (2006, 2008). However, 21.2%-64.4% of all landings were reproductively immature. Spearfishing appeared to contribute most to fishing mortality relative to the use of lobster traps or hydraulic reels along bank drop-offs. Conclusion. In comparison with available fisheries data for the wider Caribbean, the results reveal the TCI as one of the remaining sites, in addition to the Bahamas, with a substantial Nassau grouper stock. In light of increasing development and tourism in the TCI, continued monitoring is essential to maintain sustainable harvesting practices.

Assessing the sensitivity of seagrass bed biotopes to pressures associated with marine activities.

This project was commissioned to generate an improved understanding of the sensitivities of seagrass habitats to pressures associated with human activities in the marine environment - to provide an evidence base to facilitate and support management advice for Marine Protected Areas; development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. Seagrass bed habitats are identified as a Priority Marine Feature (PMF) under the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010, they are also included on the OSPAR list of threatened and declining species and habitats, and are a Habitat of Principle Importance (HPI) under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act 2006, in England and Wales. The purpose of this project was to produce sensitivity assessments with supporting evidence for the HPI, OSPAR and PMF seagrass/Zostera bed habitat definitions, clearly documenting the evidence behind the assessments and any differences between assessments. Nineteen pressures, falling in five categories - biological, hydrological, physical damage, physical loss, and pollution and other chemical changes - were assessed in this report. Assessments were based on the three British seagrasses Zostera marina, Z. noltei and Ruppia maritima. Z. marina var. angustifolia was considered to be a subspecies of Z. marina but it was specified where studies had considered it as a species in its own rights. Where possible other components of the community were investigated but the basis of the assessment focused on seagrass species. To develop each sensitivity assessment, the resistance and resilience of the key elements were assessed against the pressure benchmark using the available evidence. The benchmarks were designed to provide a ‘standard’ level of pressure against which to assess sensitivity. Overall, seagrass beds were highly sensitive to a number of human activities: • penetration or disturbance of the substratum below the surface; • habitat structure changes – removal of substratum; • physical change to another sediment type; • physical loss of habitat; • siltation rate changes including and smothering; and • changes in suspended solids. High sensitivity was recorded for pressures which directly impacted the factors that limit seagrass growth and health such as light availability. Physical pressures that caused mechanical modification of the sediment, and hence damage to roots and leaves, also resulted in high sensitivity. Seagrass beds were assessed as ‘not sensitive’ to microbial pathogens or ‘removal of target species’. These assessments were based on the benchmarks used. Z. marina is known to be sensitive to Labyrinthula zosterae but this was not included in the benchmark used. Similarly, ‘removal of target species’ addresses only the biological effects of removal and not the physical effects of the process used. For example, seagrass beds are probably not sensitive to the removal of scallops found within the bed but are highly sensitive to the effects of dredging for scallops, as assessed under the pressure penetration or disturbance of the substratum below the surface‘. This is also an example of a synergistic effect Assessing the sensitivity of seagrass bed biotopes to pressures associated with marine activities between pressures. Where possible, synergistic effects were highlighted but synergistic and cumulative effects are outside the scope off this study. The report found that no distinct differences in sensitivity exist between the HPI, PMF and OSPAR definitions. Individual biotopes do however have different sensitivities to pressures. These differences were determined by the species affected, the position of the habitat on the shore and the sediment type. For instance evidence showed that beds growing in soft and muddy sand were more vulnerable to physical damage than beds on harder, more compact substratum. Temporal effects can also influence the sensitivity of seagrass beds. On a seasonal time frame, physical damage to roots and leaves occurring in the reproductive season (summer months) will have a greater impact than damage in winter. On a daily basis, the tidal regime could accentuate or attenuate the effects of pressures depending on high and low tide. A variety of factors must therefore be taken into account in order to assess the sensitivity of a particular seagrass habitat at any location. No clear difference in resilience was established across the three seagrass definitions assessed in this report. The resilience of seagrass beds and the ability to recover from human induced pressures is a combination of the environmental conditions of the site, growth rates of the seagrass, the frequency and the intensity of the disturbance. This highlights the importance of considering the species affected as well as the ecology of the seagrass bed, the environmental conditions and the types and nature of activities giving rise to the pressure and the effects of that pressure. For example, pressures that result in sediment modification (e.g. pitting or erosion), sediment change or removal, prolong recovery. Therefore, the resilience of each biotope and habitat definitions is discussed for each pressure. Using a clearly documented, evidence based approach to create sensitivity assessments allows the assessment and any subsequent decision making or management plans to be readily communicated, transparent and justifiable. The assessments can be replicated and updated where new evidence becomes available ensuring the longevity of the sensitivity assessment tool. The evidence review has reduced the uncertainty around assessments previously undertaken in the MB0102 project (Tillin et al 2010) by assigning a single sensitivity score to the pressures as opposed to a range. Finally, as seagrass habitats may also contribute to ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services, understanding the sensitivity of these biotopes may also support assessment and management in regard to these. Whatever objective measures are applied to data to assess sensitivity, the final sensitivity assessment is indicative. The evidence, the benchmarks, the confidence in the assessments and the limitations of the process, require a sense-check by experienced marine ecologists before the outcome is used in management decisions.

Assessing the sensitivity of Sabellaria spinulosa to pressures associated with marine activities.

The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) commissioned this project to generate an improved understanding of the sensitivities of Sabellaria spinulosa reefs based on the OSPAR habitat definition. This work aimed to provide an evidence base to facilitate and support management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. The OSPAR list of threatened and declining species and habitats refers to subtidal S. spinulosa reefs on hard or mixed substratum. S. spinulosa may also occur as thin crusts or individual worms but these are not the focus of conservation. The purpose of this project was to produce sensitivity assessments with supporting evidence for S. spinulosa reefs, clearly documenting the evidence behind the assessments and the confidence in these assessments. Sixteen pressures, falling in five categories - biological, hydrological, physical damage, physical loss, and pollution and other chemical changes - were assessed in this report. To develop each sensitivity assessment, the resistance and resilience of the key elements of the habitat were assessed against the pressure benchmark using the available evidence. The benchmarks were designed to provide a ‘standard’ level of pressure against which to assess sensitivity. The highest sensitivity (‘medium’) was recorded for physical pressures which directly impact the reefs including: • habitat structure changes – removal of substratum; • abrasion and penetration and sub-surface disturbance; • physical loss of habitat and change to habitat; and • siltation rate changes including and smothering. The report found that no evidence for differences in the sensitivity of the three EUNIS S. spinulosa biotopes that comprise the OSPAR definition. However, this evidence review has identified significant information gaps regarding sensitivity, ecological interactions with other species and resilience. No clear difference in resilience was established across the OSPAR S. spinulosa biotopes that were assessed in this report. Using a clearly documented, evidence based approach to create sensitivity assessments allows the assessment and any subsequent decision making or management plans to be readily communicated, transparent and justifiable. The assessments can be replicated and updated where new evidence becomes available ensuring the longevity of the sensitivity assessment tool. Finally, as S. spinulosa habitats may also contribute to ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services, understanding the sensitivity of these biotopes may also support assessment and management in regard to these. Whatever objective measures are applied to data to assess sensitivity, the final sensitivity assessment is indicative. The evidence, the benchmarks, the confidence in the assessments and the limitations of the process, require a sense-check by experienced marine ecologists before the outcome is used in management decisions.

Assessing the sensitivity of blue mussel beds to pressures associated with human activities.

The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) commissioned this project to generate an improved understanding of the sensitivities of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) beds, found in UK waters, to pressures associated with human activities in the marine environment. The work will provide an evidence base that will facilitate and support management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. Blue mussel beds are identified as a Habitat of Principle Importance (HPI) under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act 2006, as a Priority Marine Feature (PMF) under the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010, and included on the OSPAR (Annex V) list of threatened and declining species and habitats. The purpose of this project was to produce sensitivity assessments for the blue mussel biotopes included within the HPI, PMF and OSPAR habitat definitions, and clearly document the supporting evidence behind the assessments and any differences between them. A total of 20 pressures falling in five categories - biological, hydrological, physical damage, physical loss, and pollution and other chemical changes - were assessed in this report. The review examined seven blue mussel bed biotopes found on littoral sediment and sublittoral rock and sediment. The assessments were based on the sensitivity of M. edulis rather than associated species, as M. edulis was considered the most important characteristic species in blue mussel beds. To develop each sensitivity assessment, the resistance and resilience of the key elements are assessed against the pressure benchmark using the available evidence gathered in this review. The benchmarks were designed to provide a ‘standard’ level of pressure against which to assess sensitivity. Blue mussel beds were highly sensitive to a few human activities: • introduction or spread of non-indigenous species (NIS); • habitat structure changes - removal of substratum (extraction); and • physical loss (to land or freshwater habitat). Physical loss of habitat and removal of substratum are particularly damaging pressures, while the sensitivity of blue mussel beds to non-indigenous species depended on the species assessed. Crepidula fornicata and Crassostrea gigas both had the potential to outcompete and replace mussel beds, so resulted in a high sensitivity assessment. Mytilus spp. populations are considered to have a strong ability to recover from environmental disturbance. A good annual recruitment may allow a bed to recovery rapidly, though this cannot always be expected due to the sporadic nature of M. edulis recruitment. Therefore, blue mussel beds were considered to have a 'Medium' resilience (recovery within 2-10 years). As a result, even where the removal or loss of proportion of a mussel bed was expected due to a pressure, a sensitivity of 'Medium' was reported. Hence, most of the sensitivities reported were 'Medium'. It was noted, however, that the recovery rates of blue mussel beds were reported to be anywhere between two years to several decades. In addition, M. edulis is considered very tolerant of a range of physical and chemical conditions. As a result, blue mussel beds were considered to be 'Not sensitive' to changes in temperature, salinity, de-oxygenation, nutrient and organic enrichment, and substratum type, at the benchmark level of pressure. The report found that no distinct differences in overall sensitivity exist between the HPI, PMF and OSPAR definitions. Individual biotopes do however have different sensitivities to pressures, and the OSPAR definition only includes blue mussel beds on sediment. These differences were determined by the position of the habitat on the shore and the sediment type. For example, the infralittoral rock biotope (A3.361) was unlikely to be exposed to pressures that affect sediments. However in the case of increased water flow, mixed sediment biotopes were considered more stable and ‘Not sensitive’ (at the benchmark level) while the remaining biotopes were likely to be affected.

Using a clearly documented, evidence-based approach to create sensitivity assessments allows the assessment basis and any subsequent decision making or management plans to be readily communicated, transparent and justifiable. The assessments can be replicated and updated where new evidence becomes available ensuring the longevity of the sensitivity assessment tool. For every pressure where sensitivity was previously assessed as a range of scores in MB0102, the assessments made by the evidence review have supported one of the MB0102 assessments. The evidence review has reduced the uncertainty around assessments previously undertaken in the MB0102 project (Tillin et al., 2010) by assigning a single sensitivity score to the pressures as opposed to a range. Finally, as blue mussel bed habitats also contribute to ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services, understanding the sensitivity of these biotopes may also support assessment and management in regard to these. Whatever objective measures are applied to data to assess sensitivity, the final sensitivity assessment is indicative. The evidence, the benchmarks, the confidence in the assessments and the limitations of the process, require a sense-check by experienced marine ecologists before the outcome is used in management decisions.

tts: A SAT-Solver for Small, Difficult Instances

The Ternary Tree Solver (tts) is a complete solver for propositional satisfiability which was designed to have good performance on the most difficult small instances. It uses a static ternary tree data structure to represent the simplified proposition under all permissible partial assignments and maintains a database of derived propositions known to be unsatisfiable. In the SAT2007 competition version 4.0 won the silver medal for the category handmade, speciality UNSAT solvers and was the top qualifier for the second stage for handmade benchmarks, solving 11 benchmarks which were not solved by any other entrant. We describe the methods used by the solver and analyse the competition Phase 1 results on small benchmarks. We propose a first version of a comprehensive suite of small difficult satisfiability benchmarks (sdsb) and compare the worst-case performance of the competition medallists on these benchmarks.

From a ‘borderless world’ to a ‘world of borders’: ‘bringing history back in’

The first part of the paper explores some of the reasons why contemporary border studies understate the full significance of state borders and their global primacy. It is argued that this failing is rooted in a much wider lack of historical reflexivity-a reluctance to acknowledge the historical positioning (the 'where and when') of contemporary border studies themselves. This reluctance encourages a form of pseudohistory, or 'epochal thinking', which disfigures perspective on the present. Among the consequences are (a) exaggerated claims of the novelty of contemporary border change, propped up by poorly substantiated benchmarks in the past; (b) an incapacity to recognise the 'past in the present' as in the various historical deposits of state formation processes; and (c) a failure to recognise the distinctiveness of contemporary state borders and how they differ from other borders in their complexity and globality. The second part of the paper argues for a recalibration of border studies aimed at balancing their spatial emphases with a much greater, and more critical, historical sensitivity. It insists that 'boundedness', and state boundedness in particular, is a variable that must be understood historically. This is illustrated by arguing that a better analysis of contemporary border change means rethinking the crude periodisation which distinguishes the age of empire from the age of nation-states and, in turn, from some putative contemporary era 'beyond nation-states' and their borders.

Understanding Old Age and Victimisation: A Critical Exploration

Purpose – The purpose of paper is to shine light on the under-theorised relationship between old age and victmisation. In classical criminological studies, the relationship between “age”, victimisation and crime has been dominated by analysis of younger people's experiences. This paper aims to address this knowledge deficit by exploring older people's experiences by linking it to the social construction of vulnerability.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores both historical and contemporary narratives relating to the diverse experiences of older people as victims in the UK. In particular, from 1945 to the present, statistical context and theoretical advancement illuminates that older people as a social group have a deep “fear of crime” to their relative victimisation.

Findings – A careful survey of the criminological literature highlights a paucity of research relating to older people's views and experiences of crime and victimisation. The conceptual issue of vulnerability in different contexts is important in understanding ageing and victimisation in UK. The paper's findings illustrate that their experiences have remained marginalised in the debates around social policy, and how the criminal justice system responds to these changes remains yet to be seen.

Research limitations/implications – Any research attempt at theorising “age” should take into consideration not just younger people, but also the diverse experiences of older people. Policy makers may care to ponder that benchmarks be written that takes into full consideration of older people's experiences as vulnerability.

Practical implications – For criminal justice scholars and practitioners, there is a need to listen to the narratives of older people that should help shape and frame debate about their lived experiences. There should be an examination of existing formal and informal practices regarding elders, as the first step in developing an explicit and integrated set of policies and programmes to address the special needs of this group.

Originality/value – This is an original paper in highlighting how important old age is in construction of “victims” in modern society. By theorising age, victimisation and crime it is hoped to dispel and challenge some of the myths surrounding later life, crime and the older victim.

Advanced educational parallel DSP system based on TMS320C25 processors

This paper describes the design, application, and evaluation of a user friendly, flexible, scalable and inexpensive Advanced Educational Parallel (AdEPar) digital signal processing (DSP) system based on TMS320C25 digital processors to implement DSP algorithms. This system will be used in the DSP laboratory by graduate students to work on advanced topics such as developing parallel DSP algorithms. The graduating senior students who have gained some experience in DSP can also use the system. The DSP laboratory has proved to be a useful tool in the hands of the instructor to teach the mathematically oriented topics of DSP that are often difficult for students to grasp. The DSP laboratory with assigned projects has greatly improved the ability of the students to understand such complex topics as the fast Fourier transform algorithm, linear and circular convolution, the theory and design of infinite impulse response (IIR) and finite impulse response (FIR) filters. The user friendly PC software support of the AdEPar system makes it easy to develop DSP programs for students. This paper gives the architecture of the AdEPar DSP system. The communication between processors and the PC-DSP processor communication are explained. The parallel debugger kernels and the restrictions of the system are described. The programming in the AdEPar is explained, and two benchmarks (parallel FFT and DES) are presented to show the system performance.

The Paralax Infrastructure: Automatic Parallelization With a Helping Hand

Speeding up sequential programs on multicores is a challenging problem that is in urgent need of a solution. Automatic parallelization of irregular pointer-intensive codes, exempli?ed by the SPECint codes, is a very hard problem. This paper shows that, with a helping hand, such auto-parallelization is possible and fruitful. This paper makes the following contributions: (i) A compiler framework for extracting pipeline-like parallelism from outer program loops is presented. (ii) Using a light-weight programming model based on annotations, the programmer helps the compiler to ?nd thread-level parallelism. Each of the annotations speci?es only a small piece of semantic information that compiler analysis misses, e.g. stating that a variable is dead at a certain program point. The annotations are designed such that correctness is easily veri?ed. Furthermore, we present a tool for suggesting annotations to the programmer. (iii) The methodology is applied to autoparallelize several SPECint benchmarks. For the benchmark with most parallelism (hmmer), we obtain a scalable 7-fold speedup on an AMD quad-core dual processor. The annotations constitute a parallel programming model that relies extensively on a sequential program representation. Hereby, the complexity of debugging is not increased and it does not obscure the source code. These properties could prove valuable to increase the ef?ciency of parallel programming.

On generating set index functions for randomized caches

Caches hide the growing latency of accesses to the main memory from the processor by storing the most recently used data on-chip. To limit the search time through the caches, they are organized in a direct mapped or set-associative way. Such an organization introduces many conflict misses that hamper performance. This paper studies randomizing set index functions, a technique to place the data in the cache in such a way that conflict misses are avoided. The performance of such a randomized cache strongly depends on the randomization function. This paper discusses a methodology to generate randomization functions that perform well over a broad range of benchmarks. The methodology uses profiling information to predict the conflict miss rate of randomization functions. Then, using this information, a search algorithm finds the best randomization function. Due to implementation issues, it is preferable to use a randomization function that is extremely simple and can be evaluated in little time. For these reasons, we use randomization functions where each randomized address bit is computed as the XOR of a subset of the original address bits. These functions are chosen such that they operate on as few address bits as possible and have few inputs to each XOR. This paper shows that to index a 2(m)-set cache, it suffices to randomize m+2 or m+3 address bits and to limit the number of inputs to each XOR to 2 bits to obtain the full potential of randomization. Furthermore, it is shown that the randomization function that we generate for one set of benchmarks also works well for an entirely different set of benchmarks. Using the described methodology, it is possible to reduce the implementation cost of randomization functions with only an insignificant loss in conflict reduction.