Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Predicting dry eye using non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment

PURPOSE. To measure tear film surface quality in healthy and dry eye subjects using three noninvasive techniques of tear film quality assessment and to establish the ability of these noninvasive techniques to predict dry eye. METHODS. Thirty four subjects participated in the study, and were classified as dry eye or normal, based on standard clinical assessments. Three non-invasive techniques were applied for measurement of tear film surface quality: dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV), wavefront sensing (DWS) and lateral shearing interferometry (LSI). The measurements were performed in both natural blinking conditions (NBC) and in suppressed blinking conditions (SBC). RESULTS. In order to investigate the capability of each method to discriminate dry eye subjects from normal subjects, the receiver operating curve (ROC) was calculated and then the area under the curve (AUC) was extracted. The best result was obtained for the LSI technique (AUC=0.80 in SBC and AUC=0.73 in NBC), which was followed by HSV (AUC=0.72 in SBC and AUC=0.71 in NBC). The best result for DWS was AUC=0.64 obtained for changes in vertical coma in suppressed blinking conditions, while for normal blinking conditions the results were poorer. CONCLUSIONS. Non-invasive techniques of tear film surface assessment can be used for predicting dry eye and this can be achieved in natural blinking as well as suppressed blinking conditions. In this study, LSI showed the best detection performance, closely followed by the dynamic-area HSV. The wavefront sensing technique was less powerful, particularly in natural blinking conditions.

Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) : a review of available techniques

Breast conservation therapy (BCT) is the procedure of choice for the management of the early stage breast cancer. However, its utilization has not been maximized because of logistics issues associated with the protracted treatment involved with the radiation treatment. Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) is an approach that treats only the lumpectomy bed plus a 1-2 cm margin, rather than the whole breast. Hence because of the small volume of irradiation a higher dose can be delivered in a shorter period of time. There has been growing interest for APBI and various approaches have been developed under phase I-III clinical studies; these include multicatheter interstitial brachytherapy, balloon catheter brachytherapy, conformal external beam radiation therapy and intra-operative radiation therapy (IORT). Balloon-based brachytherapy approaches include Mammosite, Axxent electronic brachytherapy and Contura, Hybrid brachytherapy devices include SAVI and ClearPath. This paper reviews the different techniques, identifying the weaknesses and strength of each approach and proposes a direction for future research and development. It is evident that APBI will play a role in the management of a selected group of early breast cancer. However, the relative role of the different techniques is yet to be clearly identified.

A review of rapid prototyping techniques for tissue engineering purposes

Rapid prototyping (RP) is a common name for several techniques, which read in data from computer-aided design (CAD) drawings and manufacture automatically threedimensional objects layer-by-layer according to the virtual design. The utilization of RP in tissue engineering enables the production of three-dimensional scaffolds with complex geometries and very fine structures. Adding micro- and nanometer details into the scaffolds improves the mechanical properties of the scaffold and ensures better cell adhesion to the scaffold surface. Thus, tissue engineering constructs can be customized according to the data acquired from the medical scans to match the each patient’s individual needs. In addition RP enables the control of the scaffold porosity making it possible to fabricate applications with desired structural integrity. Unfortunately, every RP process has its own unique disadvantages in building tissue engineering scaffolds. Hence, the future research should be focused into the development of RP machines designed specifically for fabrication of tissue engineering scaffolds, although RP methods already can serve as a link between tissue and engineering.

Advances in vegetation management for power line corridor monitoring using aerial remote sensing techniques

This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of vegetation management approaches in power line corridors based on aerial remote sensing techniques. We address three issues 1) strategies for risk management in power line corridors, 2) selection of suitable platforms and sensor suite for data collection and 3) the progress in automated data processing techniques for vegetation management. We present initial results from a series of experiments and, challenges and lessons learnt from our project.

Estimation of parameters for macroparasite population evolution using approximate Bayesian computation

We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

A Taxonomy of image matching techniques for stereo vision

Stereo vision is a method of depth perception, in which depth information is inferred from two (or more) images of a scene, taken from different perspectives. Applications of stereo vision include aerial photogrammetry, autonomous vehicle guidance, robotics, industrial automation and stereomicroscopy. A key issue in stereo vision is that of image matching, or identifying corresponding points in a stereo pair. The difference in the positions of corresponding points in image coordinates is termed the parallax or disparity. When the orientation of the two cameras is known, corresponding points may be projected back to find the location of the original object point in world coordinates. Matching techniques are typically categorised according to the nature of the matching primitives they use and the matching strategy they employ. This report provides a detailed taxonomy of image matching techniques, including area based, transform based, feature based, phase based, hybrid, relaxation based, dynamic programming and object space methods. A number of area based matching metrics as well as the rank and census transforms were implemented, in order to investigate their suitability for a real-time stereo sensor for mining automation applications. The requirements of this sensor were speed, robustness, and the ability to produce a dense depth map. The Sum of Absolute Differences matching metric was the least computationally expensive; however, this metric was the most sensitive to radiometric distortion. Metrics such as the Zero Mean Sum of Absolute Differences and Normalised Cross Correlation were the most robust to this type of distortion but introduced additional computational complexity. The rank and census transforms were found to be robust to radiometric distortion, in addition to having low computational complexity. They are therefore prime candidates for a matching algorithm for a stereo sensor for real-time mining applications. A number of issues came to light during this investigation which may merit further work. These include devising a means to evaluate and compare disparity results of different matching algorithms, and finding a method of assigning a level of confidence to a match. Another issue of interest is the possibility of statistically combining the results of different matching algorithms, in order to improve robustness.

Developments in texture-based vector field visualisation techniques

Vector field visualisation is one of the classic sub-fields of scientific data visualisation. The need for effective visualisation of flow data arises in many scientific domains ranging from medical sciences to aerodynamics. Though there has been much research on the topic, the question of how to communicate flow information effectively in real, practical situations is still largely an unsolved problem. This is particularly true for complex 3D flows. In this presentation we give a brief introduction and background to vector field visualisation and comment on the effectiveness of the most common solutions. We will then give some examples of current development on texture-based techniques, and given practical examples of their use in CFD research and hydrodynamic applications.

Bayesian filtering over compressed appearance states

This paper presents a framework for performing real-time recursive estimation of landmarks’ visual appearance. Imaging data in its original high dimensional space is probabilistically mapped to a compressed low dimensional space through the definition of likelihood functions. The likelihoods are subsequently fused with prior information using a Bayesian update. This process produces a probabilistic estimate of the low dimensional representation of the landmark visual appearance. The overall filtering provides information complementary to the conventional position estimates which is used to enhance data association. In addition to robotics observations, the filter integrates human observations in the appearance estimates. The appearance tracks as computed by the filter allow landmark classification. The set of labels involved in the classification task is thought of as an observation space where human observations are made by selecting a label. The low dimensional appearance estimates returned by the filter allow for low cost communication in low bandwidth sensor networks. Deployment of the filter in such a network is demonstrated in an outdoor mapping application involving a human operator, a ground and an air vehicle.

Learning articulated motion structures with Bayesian Networks

This paper presents a general methodology for learning articulated motions that, despite having non-linear correlations, are cyclical and have a defined pattern of behavior Using conventional algorithms to extract features from images, a Bayesian classifier is applied to cluster and classify features of the moving object. Clusters are then associated in different frames and structure learning algorithms for Bayesian networks are used to recover the structure of the motion. This framework is applied to the human gait analysis and tracking but applications include any coordinated movement such as multi-robots behavior analysis.

A Bayesian approach for place recognition

This paper presents a robust place recognition algorithm for mobile robots. The framework proposed combines nonlinear dimensionality reduction, nonlinear regression under noise, and variational Bayesian learning to create consistent probabilistic representations of places from images. These generative models are learnt from a few images and used for multi-class place recognition where classification is computed from a set of feature-vectors. Recognition can be performed in near real-time and accounts for complexity such as changes in illumination, occlusions and blurring. The algorithm was tested with a mobile robot in indoor and outdoor environments with sequences of 1579 and 3820 images respectively. This framework has several potential applications such as map building, autonomous navigation, search-rescue tasks and context recognition.