Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Fine scale variability in methanol uptake and oxidation in the micro-layer and near-surface waters of the Atlantic

The aim of this research was to make the first depth profiles of the microbial assimilation of methanol carbon and its oxidation to carbon dioxide and use as an energy source from the microlayer to 1000 m. Some of the highest reported methanol oxidation rate constants of 0.5–0.6 d−1 were occasionally found in the microlayer and immediately underlying waters (10 cm depth), albeit these samples also showed the greatest heterogeneity compared to other depths down to 1000 m. Methanol uptake into the particulate phase was exceptionally low in microlayer samples, suggesting that any methanol utilised by microbes in this environment is for energy generation. The sea surface microlayer and 10 cm depth also showed a higher proportion of bacteria with a low DNA content, and bacterial leucine uptake rates in surface microlayer samples were either less than or the same as those in the underlying 10 cm layer. The average methanol oxidation and particulate rates were however statistically the same throughout the depths sampled, although the latter were highly variable in the near-surface 0.25–2 m compared to deeper depths. The statistically significant relationship demonstrated between uptake of methanol into particles and bacterial leucine incorporation suggests that many heterotrophic bacteria could be using methanol carbon for cellular growth. On average, methanol bacterial growth efficiency (BGEm) in the top 25 m of the water column is 6% and decreases with depth. Although, for microlayer and 10 cm-depth samples, BGEm is less than the near-surface 25–217 cm, possibly reflecting increased environmental UV stress resulting in increased maintenance costs, i.e. energy required for survival. We conclude that microbial methanol uptake rates, i.e. loss from seawater, are highly variable, particularly close to the seawater surface, which could significantly impact upon seawater concentrations and hence the air–sea flux.

Fine-scale variability in methanol uptake and oxidation: from the microlayer to 1000 m.

The aim of this research was to make the first depth profiles of the microbial assimilation of methanol carbon and its oxidation to carbon dioxide and use as an energy source from the microlayer to 1000 m. Some of the highest reported methanol oxidation rate constants of 0.5–0.6 d−1 were occasionally found in the microlayer and immediately underlying waters (10 cm depth), albeit these samples also showed the greatest heterogeneity compared to other depths down to 1000 m. Methanol uptake into the particulate phase was exceptionally low in microlayer samples, suggesting that any methanol utilised by microbes in this environment is for energy generation. The sea surface microlayer and 10 cm depth also showed a higher proportion of bacteria with a low DNA content, and bacterial leucine uptake rates in surface microlayer samples were either less than or the same as those in the underlying 10 cm layer. The average methanol oxidation and particulate rates were however statistically the same throughout the depths sampled, although the latter were highly variable in the near-surface 0.25–2 m compared to deeper depths. The statistically significant relationship demonstrated between uptake of methanol into particles and bacterial leucine incorporation suggests that many heterotrophic bacteria could be using methanol carbon for cellular growth. On average, methanol bacterial growth efficiency (BGEm) in the top 25 m of the water column is 6% and decreases with depth. Although, for microlayer and 10 cm-depth samples, BGEm is less than the near-surface 25–217 cm, possibly reflecting increased environmental UV stress resulting in increased maintenance costs, i.e. energy required for survival. We conclude that microbial methanol uptake rates, i.e. loss from seawater, are highly variable, particularly close to the seawater surface, which could significantly impact upon seawater concentrations and hence the air–sea flux.

Climate change impacts on sea–air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas: a sensitivity study using Earth observation

We applied coincident Earth observation data collected during 2008 and 2009 from multiple sensors (RA2, AATSR and MERIS, mounted on the European Space Agency satellite Envisat) to characterise environmental conditions and integrated sea-air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas (Greenland, Barents, Kara). We assessed net CO2 sink sensitivity due to changes in temperature, salinity and sea ice duration arising from future climate scenarios. During the study period the Greenland and Barents seas were net sinks for atmospheric CO2, with integrated sea-air fluxes of -36 +/- 14 and -11 +/- 5 Tg C yr(-1), respectively, and the Kara Sea was a weak net CO2 source with an integrated sea-air flux of +2.2 +/- 1.4 TgC yr(-1). The combined integrated CO2 sea-air flux from all three was -45 +/- 18 TgC yr(-1). In a sensitivity analysis we varied temperature, salinity and sea ice duration. Variations in temperature and salinity led to modification of the transfer velocity, solubility and partial pressure of CO2 taking into account the resultant variations in alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our results showed that warming had a strong positive effect on the annual integrated sea-air flux of CO2 (i.e. reducing the sink), freshening had a strong negative effect and reduced sea ice duration had a small but measurable positive effect. In the climate change scenario examined, the effects of warming in just over a decade of climate change up to 2020 outweighed the combined effects of freshening and reduced sea ice duration. Collectively these effects gave an integrated sea-air flux change of +4.0 TgC in the Greenland Sea, +6.0 Tg C in the Barents Sea and +1.7 Tg C in the Kara Sea, reducing the Greenland and Barents sinks by 11% and 53 %, respectively, and increasing the weak Kara Sea source by 81 %. Overall, the regional integrated flux changed by +11.7 Tg C, which is a 26% reduction in the regional sink. In terms of CO2 sink strength, we conclude that the Barents Sea is the most susceptible of the three regions to the climate changes examined. Our results imply that the region will cease to be a net CO2 sink in the 2050s.

Ocean acidification shows negligible impacts on high-latitude bacterial community structure in coastal pelagic mesocosms

The impact of ocean acidification and carbonation on microbial community structure was assessed during a large-scale in situ costal pelagic mesocosm study, included as part of the EPOCA 2010 Arctic campaign. The mesocosm experiment included ambient conditions (fjord) and nine mesocosms with pCO(2) levels ranging from similar to 145 to similar to 1420 mu atm. Samples for the present study were collected at ten time points (t-1, t1, t5, t7, t12, t14, t18, t22, t26 to t28) in seven treatments (ambient fjord (similar to 145), 2x similar to 185, similar to 270, similar to 685, similar to 820, similar to 1050 mu atm) and were analysed for "small" and "large" size fraction microbial community composition using 16S rRNA (ribosomal ribonucleic acid) amplicon sequencing. This high-throughput sequencing analysis produced similar to 20 000 000 16S rRNA V4 reads, which comprised 7000OTUs. The main variables structuring these communities were sample origins (fjord or mesocosms) and the community size fraction (small or large size fraction). The community was significantly different between the unenclosed fjord water and enclosed mesocosms (both control and elevated CO2 treatments) after nutrients were added to the mesocosms, suggesting that the addition of nutrients is the primary driver of the change in mesocosm community structure. The relative importance of each structuring variable depended greatly on the time at which the community was sampled in relation to the phytoplankton bloom. The sampling strategy of separating the small and large size fraction was the second most important factor for community structure. When the small and large size fraction bacteria were analysed separately at different time points, the only taxon pCO(2) was found to significantly affect were the Gammaproteobacteria after nutrient addition. Finally, pCO(2) treatment was found to be significantly correlated (non-linear) with 15 rare taxa, most of which increased in abundance with higher CO2.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (similar to 50 %) and their calcification can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998-2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean sea surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 +/- 104 000 km(2), which results in a net CaCO3 carbon (CaCO3-C) production of 0.14-1.71 Tg CaCO3-C per year. However, this surface coverage (and, thus, net production) can fluctuate inter-annually by -54/+81% about the mean value and is strongly correlated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r = 0.75, p < 0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO(2) and, thus, decrease the localised air-sea flux of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly air-sea CO2 flux can reach 55%. The maximum reduction of the monthly air-sea CO2 flux in the time series is 155 %. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO(2) should be considered if we are to fully understand the variability of the North Atlantic air-to-sea flux of CO2. We estimate that these blooms can reduce the annual N. Atlantic net sink atmospheric CO2 by between 3-28 %.