Climate Change - Risks and Opportunities for the Custard Apple Industry

Climate affects the custard apple industry in a range of ways through impacts on growth, disease risk, fruit set and industry location. Climates in Australia are influenced by surrounding oceans, and are very variable from year to year. However, amidst this variability there are significant trends, with Australian annual mean temperatures increasing since 1910, and particularly since 1950, with night-time temperatures increasing faster (0.11oC/decade) than daytime temperatures (0.06oC/decade). These temperature increases and other climate changes are expected to continue as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with ongoing impacts on the custard apple industry. Five sites were chosen to assess possible future climate changes : Mareeba, Yeppoon, Bundaberg, Nambour and Lismore, these sites representing the extent of the majority of custard apple production in eastern Australia. A fifth site (Coffs Harbour) was selected as it is south of the current production regions. A mean warming of 0.8 to 1.2oC is anticipated over most of these sites by the year 2030, relative to 1990. This paper assesses the potential effects of climate change on custard apple production, and suggests strategies for adaptation.

Effects of climate change on reproduction,larval development, and adult health of coral trout (Plectropomus spp.)

Climate change is emerging as the single greatest threat to coral-reef ecosystems.The most immediate impacts will be a loss of diversity and changes to fish community composition and may lead to eventual declines in abundance and productivity of key fisheries species. A key component of this research is to assess effects of projected changes in environmental conditions (temperature and ocean acidity) due to climate change on reproduction, growth and development of coral trout (Plectropomus leopardis).Ultimately, this research will fill key knowledge gaps about climate change impacts on larger fishes, which are fundamental to optimizing resilience-based management, and in turn improve the adaptive capacity of industries and communities along the Great Barrier Reef.

Management implications of climate change impacts of fisheries resources

This application was developed in response to the widely recognised concern that climate change will result in changes to marine life and ecosystems, and hence fisheries, throughout Australia with tropical marine ecosystems in northern Australia identified as being particularly vulnerable. These changes are predicted to vary spatially depending on local climate and biophysical processes. Northern Australia is one of three major Australian regions predicted to be impacted. The project addresses the important FRDC strategic challenge of improving the management of aquatic natural resources to ensure their sustainability through research and management that accounts for the effects that climate change may have on the resources.

Relocation of intensive crop production systems to northern Australia

To adapt to climate variability and a lack of irrigation water, businesses and growers in southern Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland are, or are considering, migrating their businesses to northern Australia.

GRDC Improving crop and farm water use efficiency in Australia

Project Objectives: 1. Improving yield and water use efficiency of the wheat crop, the backbone of the Australia grains industry, by better matching management, variety, soil and climate. The aim is thus increasing kg grain/ha per mm evapotranspiration and kg grain/ha per mm rain. 2. Improving land and water productivity and profit by better arrangement of the components of the cropping system. This involves better allocation of farm resources (land, water, machinery, labour) and identifying strategies that account for trade-offs between profit and risk. The aim is thus improving $/ha per year and mm rain in a risk framework.

Simulation of parthenium weed canopy under changing climate using L-systems

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an erect, branched, annual plant of the family Asteraceae. It is native to the tropical Americas, while now widely distributed throughout Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Australasia. Due to its allelopathic and toxic characteristics, parthenium weed has been considered to be a weed of global significance. These effects occur across agriculture (crops and pastures), within natural ecosystems, and has impacts upon health (human and animals). Although integrated weed management (IWM) for parthenium weed has had some success, due to its tolerance and good adaptability to temperature, precipitation, and CO2, this weed has been predicted to become more vigorous under a changing climate resulting in an altered canopy architecture. From the viewpoint of IWM, the altered canopy architecture may be associated with not only improved competitive ability and replacement but also may alter the effectiveness of biocontrol agents and other management strategies. This paper reports on a preliminary study on parthenium weed canopy architecture at three temperature regimes (day/night 22/15 °C, 27/20 °C, and 32/25 °C in thermal time 12/12 hours) and establishes a threedimensional (3D) canopy model using Lindenmayer-systems (L-systems). This experiment was conducted in a series of controlled environment rooms with parthenium weed plants being grown in a heavy clay soil. A sonic digitizer system was used to record the morphology, topology, and geometry of the plants for model construction. The main findings include the determination of the phyllochron which enables the prediction of parthenium weed growth under different temperature regimes and that increased temperature enhances growth and enlarges the plants canopy size and structure. The developed 3D canopy model provides a tool to simulate and predict the weed growth in response to temperature, and can be adjusted for studies of other climatic variables such as precipitation and CO2. Further studies are planned to investigate the effects of other climatic variables, and the predicted changes in the pathogenic biocontrol agent effectiveness.

Soil carbon stock in the tropical rangelands of Australia: Effects of soil type and grazing pressure, and determination of sampling requirement.

On-going, high-profile public debate about climate change has focussed attention on how to monitor the soil organic carbon stock (C(s)) of rangelands (savannas). Unfortunately, optimal sampling of the rangelands for baseline C(s) - the critical first step towards efficient monitoring - has received relatively little attention to date. Moreover, in the rangelands of tropical Australia relatively little is known about how C(s) is influenced by the practice of cattle grazing. To address these issues we used linear mixed models to: (i) unravel how grazing pressure (over a 12-year period) and soil type have affected C(s) and the stable carbon isotope ratio of soil organic carbon (delta(13)C) (a measure of the relative contributions of C(3) and C(4) vegetation to C(s)); (ii) examine the spatial covariation of C(s) and delta(13)C; and, (iii) explore the amount of soil sampling required to adequately determine baseline C(s). Modelling was done in the context of the material coordinate system for the soil profile, therefore the depths reported, while conventional, are only nominal. Linear mixed models revealed that soil type and grazing pressure interacted to influence C(s) to a depth of 0.3 m in the profile. At a depth of 0.5 m there was no effect of grazing on C(s), but the soil type effect on C(s) was significant. Soil type influenced delta(13)C to a soil depth of 0.5 m but there was no effect of grazing at any depth examined. The linear mixed model also revealed the strong negative correlation of C(s) with delta(13)C, particularly to a depth of 0.1 m in the soil profile. This suggested that increased C(s) at the study site was associated with increased input of C from C(3) trees and shrubs relative to the C(4) perennial grasses; as the latter form the bulk of the cattle diet, we contend that C sequestration may be negatively correlated with forage production. Our baseline C(s) sampling recommendation for cattle-grazing properties of the tropical rangelands of Australia is to: (i) divide the property into units of apparently uniform soil type and grazing management; (ii) use stratified simple random sampling to spread at least 25 soil sampling locations about each unit, with at least two samples collected per stratum. This will be adequate to accurately estimate baseline mean C(s) to within 20% of the true mean, to a nominal depth of 0.3 m in the profile.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Species-site matching in mixed species plantations of native trees in tropical Australia

Mixed species plantations using native trees are increasingly being considered for sustainable timber production. Successful application of mixed species forestry systems requires knowledge of the potential spatial interaction between species in order to minimise the chance of dominance and suppression and to maximise wood production. Here, we examined species performances across 52 experimental plots of tree mixtures established on cleared rainforest land to analyse relationships between the growth of component species and climate and soil conditions. We derived site index (SI) equations for ten priority species to evaluate performance and site preferences. Variation in SI of focus species demonstrated that there are strong species-specific responses to climate and soil variables. The best predictor of tree growth for rainforest species Elaeocarpus grandis and Flindersia brayleyana was soil type, as trees grew significantly better on well-draining than on poorly drained soil profiles. Both E. grandis and Eucalyptus pellita showed strong growth response to variation in mean rain days per month. Our study generates understanding of the relative performance of species in mixed species plantations in the Wet Tropics of Australia and improves our ability to predict species growth compatibilities at potential planting sites within the region. Given appropriate species selections and plantation design, mixed plantations of high-value native timber species are capable of sustaining relatively high productivity at a range of sites up to age 10 years, and may offer a feasible approach for large-scale reforestation.

Development of cat's claw creeper leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different temperatures: Implications for establishment as a biological control agent in Australia and South Africa

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a native of sub tropical South America, has been introduced as a biological control agent for cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohman (Bignoniaceae), in Australia and South Africa. So far there has been no evidence of its field establishment in either country. A narrow temperature tolerance is a potential limiting factor for the establishment of weed biological control insects in novel habitats. In this study, we evaluated the effect of seven constant temperatures (12–40 °C) on the survival and development of H. pyrochroma in temperature-controlled cabinets. Temperatures between 20 and 30 °C were the most favorable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval and pupal development. Adult survival (12–40 °C) and egg development (15–35 °C) showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges than oviposition, and larval and pupal development, which were all negatively affected by both high (>30 °C) and low (<20 °C) temperatures. The degree-day (DD) requirement to complete a generation was estimated as 877 above a threshold temperature of 12 °C. Based on DD requirements and an obligatory winter diapause of pupae from mid-autumn to mid-spring, the potential number of generations (egg to adult) the leaf-tying moth can complete in a year in Australia or South Africa range from one to three. A climate-matching model predicted that the inland regions of both Australia and South Africa are less favorable for H. pyrochroma than the coastal areas. The study suggested that H. pyrochroma is more likely to establish in the coastal areas of Australia where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations occur, than in South Africa where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations are inland.

Carbon Capture and Productivity of Plantation Forests in North-eastern Australia

Approximately 130,000 ha of hardwood plantations have been established in north-eastern Australia in the last 15 years. As a result of poor taxa selection approximately 25,000 ha have failed due to drought, pest and disease or extreme weather events (drought and cyclones). Given the predicted impacts of climate change in north-eastern Australia (reduced rainfall, increased temperatures and an increase in extreme weather conditions, particularly drought, storms and cyclones), selection of the right taxa for plantation development is even more critical as the taxon planted needs to be able to perform well under the environments experienced at planting as well as those that may develop over in 30 years time as a result of changing climate.

Long-term variation of tropical rock lobster panulirus ornatus (decapoda, palinuridae) growth inTorres Strait, Australia

This analysis of all carapace length measurements collected between 1989 and 2009, during scientific surveys, describes the variation of tropical rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, somatic growth in Torres Strait. Multiple models of carapace length frequency distributions were compared by maximum likelihood to determine which hypotheses were most supported by the data. The best model assumed sex and cohort-specific Von Bertalanffy's parameters. These estimates are consistent with results derived from tagging data collected in the 1980s and provide new information on parameters' uncertainty. In the past two decades, growth rates have fluctuated inter-annually without displaying any distinctive trend. Associated uncertainties are large, suggesting that sampling will need to be intensified in order to detect an effect of climate change.

What determines soil organic carbon stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia?

This study aimed to unravel the effects of climate, topography, soil, and grazing management on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia. We sampled for SOC stocks at 98 sites from 18 grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. These samples covered four nominal grazing management classes (Continuous, Rotational, Cell, and Exclosure), eight broad soil types, and a strong tropical to subtropical climatic gradient. Temperature and vapour-pressure deficit explained >80% of the variability of SOC stocks at cumulative equivalent mineral masses nominally representing 0-0.1 and 0-0.3m depths. Once detrended of climatic effects, SOC stocks were strongly influenced by total standing dry matter, soil type, and the dominant grass species. At 0-0.3m depth only, there was a weak negative association between stocking rate and climate-detrended SOC stocks, and Cell grazing was associated with smaller SOC stocks than Continuous grazing and Exclosure. In future, collection of quantitative information on stocking intensity, frequency, and duration may help to improve understanding of the effect of grazing management on SOC stocks. Further exploration of the links between grazing management and above- and below-ground biomass, perhaps inferred through remote sensing and/or simulation modelling, may assist large-area mapping of SOC stocks in northern Australia. © CSIRO 2013.

Development of cat’s claw creeper leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different temperatures: Implications for establishment as a biological control agent in Australia and South Africa

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a native of sub tropical South America, has been introduced as a biological control agent for cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohman (Bignoniaceae), in Australia and South Africa. So far there has been no evidence of its field establishment in either country. A narrow temperature tolerance is a potential limiting factor for the establishment of weed biological control insects in novel habitats. In this study, we evaluated the effect of seven constant temperatures (12–40 °C) on the survival and development of H. pyrochroma in temperature-controlled cabinets. Temperatures between 20 and 30 °C were the most favorable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval and pupal development. Adult survival (12–40 °C) and egg development (15–35 °C) showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges than oviposition, and larval and pupal development, which were all negatively affected by both high (>30 °C) and low (<20 °C) temperatures. The degree-day (DD) requirement to complete a generation was estimated as 877 above a threshold temperature of 12 °C. Based on DD requirements and an obligatory winter diapause of pupae from mid-autumn to mid-spring, the potential number of generations (egg to adult) the leaf-tying moth can complete in a year in Australia or South Africa range from one to three. A climate-matching model predicted that the inland regions of both Australia and South Africa are less favorable for H. pyrochroma than the coastal areas. The study suggested that H. pyrochroma is more likely to establish in the coastal areas of Australia where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations occur, than in South Africa where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations are inland.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.