Asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in highly dependable systems

Abstract We consider a wide class of models that includes the highly reliable Markovian systems (HRMS) often used to represent the evolution of multi-component systems in reliability settings. Repair times and component lifetimes are random variables that follow a general distribution, and the repair service adopts a priority repair rule based on system failure risk. Since crude simulation has proved to be inefficient for highly-dependable systems, the RESTART method is used for the estimation of steady-state unavailability and other reliability measures. In this method, a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of a rare event (e.g., a system failure) is higher. The main difficulty involved in applying this method is finding a suitable function, called the importance function, to define the regions. In this paper we introduce an importance function which, for unbalanced systems, represents a great improvement over the importance function used in previous papers. We also demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in these models. Several examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the new approach, and probabilities up to the order of 10-42 are accurately estimated with little computational effort.

Checking existing formulas for estimating overtopping rates in harbour breakwaters

The purpose of the research work resulting from various studies undertaken in the CEDEX, as summarized in this article, is to make a comparative analysis of methods for calculating overtopping rates developed by different authors. To this effect, in the first place, existing formulas for estimating the overtopping rate on rubble mound and vertical breakwaters were summarised and analysed. Later, the above mentioned formulas were compared using the results obtained in a series of hydraulic model tests at the CEDEX. The results obtained in the Ferrol outer harbour breakwater and Melilla harbour breakwater tests are presented here. A calculation method based on the neural network theory, developed in the European CLASH Project, was applied to a series of sloping breakwater tests in order to complete this research and the results obtained in the Ferrol outer harbour breakwater test are presented in this article. A series of additional tests was also carried out in a physical model on the standard cross section of the Bilbao harbour sloping breakwater’s cross section, the results of which are under study using the empirical formulas applicable to the cross section, as well as the NN-OVERTOPPING neural network

Forced Response of Mistuned Bladed Disks: Quantitative Validation of the Asymptotic Description

The effect of small mistuning in the forced response of a bladed disk is analyzed using a recently introduced methodology: the asymptotic mistuning model. The asymptotic mistuning model is an extremely reduced, simplified model that is derived directly from the full formulation of the mistuned bladed disk using a consistent perturbative procedure based on the relative smallness of the mistuning distortion. A detailed description of the derivation of the asymptotic mistuning model for a realistic bladed disk configuration is presented. The asymptotic mistuning model results for several different mistuning patterns and forcing conditions are compared with those from a high-resolution finite element model. The asymptotic mistuning model produces quantitatively accurate results, and, probably more relevant, it gives precise information about the factors (tuned modes and components of the mistuning pattern) that actually play a role in the vibrational forced response of mistuned bladed disks.

Asymptotic and computational analysis of mistuning effects on the dynamics of bladed disks

Es bien conocido que las pequeñas imperfecciones existentes en los álabes de un rótor de turbomaquinaria (conocidas como “mistuning”) pueden causar un aumento considerable de la amplitud de vibración de la respuesta forzada y, por el contrario, tienen típicamente un efecto beneficioso en el flameo del rótor. Para entender estos efectos se pueden llevar a cabo estudios numéricos del problema aeroelástico completo. Sin embargo, el cálculo de “mistuning” usando modelos de alta resolución es una tarea difícil de realizar, ya que los modelos necesarios para describir de manera precisa el componente de turbomáquina (por ejemplo rotor) tienen, necesariamente, un número muy elevado de grados de libertad, y, además, es necesario hacer un estudio estadístico para poder explorar apropiadamente las distribuciones posibles de “mistuning”, que tienen una naturaleza aleatoria. Diferentes modelos de orden reducido han sido desarrollados en los últimos años para superar este inconveniente. Uno de estos modelos, llamado “Asymptotic Mistuning Model (AMM)”, se deriva de la formulación completa usando técnicas de perturbaciones que se basan en que el “mistuning” es pequeño. El AMM retiene sólo los modos relevantes para describir el efecto del mistuning, y permite identificar los mecanismos clave involucrados en la amplificación de la respuesta forzada y en la estabilización del flameo. En este trabajo, el AMM se usa para estudiar el efecto del “mistuning” de la estructura y de la amortiguación sobre la amplitud de la respuesta forzada. Los resultados obtenidos son validados usando modelos simplificados del rotor y también otros de alta definición. Además, en el marco del proyecto europeo FP7 "Flutter-Free Turbomachinery Blades (FUTURE)", el AMM se aplica para diseñar distribuciones de “mistuning” intencional: (i) una que anula y (ii) otra que reduce a la mitad la amplitud del flameo de un rotor inestable; y las distribuciones obtenidas se validan experimentalmente. Por último, la capacidad de AMM para predecir el comportamiento de flameo de rotores con “mistuning” se comprueba usando resultados de CFD detallados. Abstract It is well known that the small imperfections of the individual blades in a turbomachinery rotor (known as “mistuning”) can cause a substantial increase of the forced response vibration amplitude, and it also typically results in an improvement of the flutter vibration characteristics of the rotor. The understanding of these phenomena can be attempted just by performing numerical simulations of the complete aeroelastic problem. However, the computation of mistuning cases using high fidelity models is a formidable task, because a detailed model of the whole rotor has to be considered, and a statistical study has to be carried out in order to properly explore the effect of the random mistuning distributions. Many reduced order models have been developed in recent years to overcome this barrier. One of these models, called the Asymptotic Mistuning Model (AMM), is systematically derived from the complete bladed disk formulation using a consistent perturbative procedure that exploits the smallness of mistuning to simplify the problem. The AMM retains only the essential system modes that are involved in the mistuning effect, and it allows to identify the key mechanisms of the amplification of the forced response amplitude and the flutter stabilization. In this work, AMM methodolgy is used to study the effect of structural and damping mistuning on the forced response vibration amplitude. The obtained results are verified using a one degree of freedom model of a rotor, and also high fidelity models of the complete rotor. The AMM is also applied, in the frame of the European FP7 project “Flutter-Free Turbomachinery Blades (FUTURE)”, to design two intentional mistuning patterns: (i) one to complete stabilize an unstable rotor, and (ii) other to approximately reduce by half its flutter amplitude. The designed patterns are validated experimentally. Finally, the ability of AMM to predict the flutter behavior of mistuned rotors is checked against numerical, high fidelity CFD results.

New infinite families of exact sums of squares formulas, Jacobi elliptic functions, and Ramanujan’s tau function

In this paper, we give two infinite families of explicit exact formulas that generalize Jacobi’s (1829) 4 and 8 squares identities to 4n2 or 4n(n + 1) squares, respectively, without using cusp forms. Our 24 squares identity leads to a different formula for Ramanujan’s tau function τ(n), when n is odd. These results arise in the setting of Jacobi elliptic functions, Jacobi continued fractions, Hankel or Turánian determinants, Fourier series, Lambert series, inclusion/exclusion, Laplace expansion formula for determinants, and Schur functions. We have also obtained many additional infinite families of identities in this same setting that are analogous to the η-function identities in appendix I of Macdonald’s work [Macdonald, I. G. (1972) Invent. Math. 15, 91–143]. A special case of our methods yields a proof of the two conjectured [Kac, V. G. and Wakimoto, M. (1994) in Progress in Mathematics, eds. Brylinski, J.-L., Brylinski, R., Guillemin, V. & Kac, V. (Birkhäuser Boston, Boston, MA), Vol. 123, pp. 415–456] identities involving representing a positive integer by sums of 4n2 or 4n(n + 1) triangular numbers, respectively. Our 16 and 24 squares identities were originally obtained via multiple basic hypergeometric series, Gustafson’s Cℓ nonterminating 6φ5 summation theorem, and Andrews’ basic hypergeometric series proof of Jacobi’s 4 and 8 squares identities. We have (elsewhere) applied symmetry and Schur function techniques to this original approach to prove the existence of similar infinite families of sums of squares identities for n2 or n(n + 1) squares, respectively. Our sums of more than 8 squares identities are not the same as the formulas of Mathews (1895), Glaisher (1907), Ramanujan (1916), Mordell (1917, 1919), Hardy (1918, 1920), Kac and Wakimoto, and many others.

The asymptotic distribution of canonical correlations and vectors in higher-order cointegrated models

The study of the large-sample distribution of the canonical correlations and variates in cointegrated models is extended from the first-order autoregression model to autoregression of any (finite) order. The cointegrated process considered here is nonstationary in some dimensions and stationary in some other directions, but the first difference (the “error-correction form”) is stationary. The asymptotic distribution of the canonical correlations between the first differences and the predictor variables as well as the corresponding canonical variables is obtained under the assumption that the process is Gaussian. The method of analysis is similar to that used for the first-order process.

One-sided asymptotic inferences for a proportion.

Two-sided asymptotic confidence intervals for an unknown proportion p have been the subject of a great deal of literature. Surprisingly, there are very few papers devoted, like this article, to the case of one tail, despite its great importance in practice and the fact that its behavior is usually different from that of the case with two tails. This paper evaluates 47 methods and concludes that (1) the optimal method is the classic Wilson method with a correction for continuity and (2) a simpler option, almost as good as the first, is the new adjusted Wald method (Wald's classic method applied to the data increased in the values proposed by Borkowf: adding a single imaginary failure or success).

Democracy Promotion and the EU, US Formulas: Photo Opportunities or Potential. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 5, May 2014

Why do we think more of the United States (US) than the European Union (EU) in discussing Afghani or Iraqi democratization, and EU more than US when it is East European? Should not democratization be the same? A comparative study asks what democracy has historically meant in the two regions, how democratization has been spelled out, why instruments utilized differ, and democracy within global leadership contexts. Neither treats democracy as a vital interest, but differences abound: (a) While the US shifted from relative bottom-up to top-down democracy, the EU added bottom-up to its top-down approach; (b) the US interprets democracy as the ends of other policy interests, the EU treats it as the means to other goals; and (c) flexible US instruments contrast with rigid EU counterparts. Among the implications: (a) the 4-stage US approach reaches globally wider than EU’s multi-dimensional counterpart, but EU’s regional approach sinks deeper than the US’s; (b) human rights find better EU than US anchors; (c) whereas the US approach makes intergovernmental actions the sine qua non of democratization, EU’s intergovernmental, transnational, and supranational admixture promotes quid pro quo dynamics and incremental growth; and (d) competitive democratization patterns creates lock-ins for both recipient and supplier countries.

The coal and metal miners' pocketbook of principles : rules, formulas, and tables.

"Specially compiled and prepared for the convenient use of mine officials, mining engineers, and students preparing themselves for certificates of competency as mine inspectors or mine foremen."

Selected problems of minimization of variable-valued logic formulas /

"UIUCDCS-R-75-726"

Equivalent forms of multistep formulas /

"UIUL-ENG 78 1730."

Asymptotic estimation of errors and derivatives for the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations,

"Supported in part by contract US AEC AT(11-1)2383."

Unified modified divided difference implementation of Adams and BDF formulas /

"March 1980."

Determination of symmetric VL1 formulas : algorithm and program SYM4 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Brewing formulas practically considered,

Advertising matter: p. 56-59.