Dynamics of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the northwestern European shelf based on voluntary observing ship and satellite observations

From January 2011 to December 2013, we constructed a comprehensive pCO2 data set based on voluntary observing ship (VOS) measurements in the western English Channel (WEC). We subsequently estimated surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes in northwestern European continental shelf waters using multiple linear regressions (MLRs) from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), wind speed (WND), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and modeled mixed layer depth (MLD). We developed specific MLRs for the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the permanently well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC) and calculated surface pCO2 with uncertainties of 17 and 16 μatm, respectively. We extrapolated the relationships obtained for the WEC based on the 2011–2013 data set (1) temporally over a decade and (2) spatially in the adjacent Celtic and Irish seas (CS and IS), two regions which exhibit hydrographical and biogeochemical characteristics similar to those of WEC waters. We validated these extrapolations with pCO2 data from the SOCAT and LDEO databases and obtained good agreement between modeled and observed data. On an annual scale, seasonally stratified systems acted as a sink of CO2 from the atmosphere of −0.6 ± 0.3, −0.9 ± 0.3 and −0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the northern Celtic Sea, southern Celtic sea and nWEC, respectively, whereas permanently well-mixed systems acted as source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.2 ± 0.2 and 0.3 ± 0.2 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the sWEC and IS, respectively. Air–sea CO2 fluxes showed important inter-annual variability resulting in significant differences in the intensity and/or direction of annual fluxes. We scaled the mean annual fluxes over these provinces for the last decade and obtained the first annual average uptake of −1.11 ± 0.32 Tg C yr−1 for this part of the northwestern European continental shelf. Our study showed that combining VOS data with satellite observations can be a powerful tool to estimate and extrapolate air–sea CO2 fluxes in sparsely sampled area.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

In this paper we present the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model predictions of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large dataset of in situ observations for ten ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen), ∼0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (∼0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 340,000-380,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were oxygen deficient potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36-46 Tg C yr−1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output dataset can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.

The Influence of Inert Packaging on the shelf Ageing of Gamma-Irradiation Sterilised ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene

Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) is used for wear applications in total hip prostheses and total knee prostheses. Sterilisation of these prostheses is commonly by gamma-irradiation. This process creates reactive free radicals in the UHMWPE, greatly increasing its susceptibility to oxidative degradation. This study has investigated the influence of air and vacuum packaging on the properties of gamma-irradiated UHMWPE (GUR1050) following 3 years of shelf ageing. The findings indicate that vacuum packaging minimises oxidative degradation reactions that occur for UHMWPE during shelf ageing. However, gamma-irradiation of vacuum-packaged UHMWPE promotes a degree of cross-linking. It is proposed that this may enhance the wear performance of UHMWPE. Accelerated ageing studies indicate that 3 years of shelf ageing would also seem to reduce the susceptibility of gamma-irradiated UHMWPE to oxidative degradation upon removal from its vacuum packaging.

Widespread occurrence of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in Irish coastal and shelf waters

An oceanic cruise (October 2007) revealed the widespread occurrence of Pelagia noctiluca in the NE Atlantic just prior to a major fish kill induced by P. noctiluca in Irish coastal waters.

Geophysical and geochemical survey of a large marine pockmark on the Malin Shelf, Ireland

Marine pockmarks are a specific type of seabed geological setting resembling craters or pits and are considered seabed surface expressions of fluid flow in the subsurface. A large composite pockmark on the Malin Shelf, off the northern coast of Ireland was surveyed and ground truthed to assess its activity and investigate fluid related processes in the subsurface. Geophysical (including acoustic and electromagnetic) data confirmed the subsurface presence of signatures typical of fluids within the sediment. Shallow seismic profiling revealed a large shallow gas pocket and typical gas related indicators such as acoustic blanking and enhanced reflectors present underneath and around the large pockmark. Sulphate profiles indicate that gas from the shallow reservoir has been migrating upwards, at least recently. However, there are no chimney structures observed in the sub-bottom data and the migration pathways are not apparent. Electromagnetic data show slightly elevated electrical conductivity on the edges of the pockmarks and a drop below regional levels within the confines of the pockmark, suggesting changes in physical properties of the sediment. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) experiments were employed to characterize the organic component of sediments from selected depths. Very strong microbial signatures were evident in all NMR spectra but microbes outside the pockmark appear to be much more active than inside. These observations coincide with spikes in conductivity and the lateral gas bearing body suggesting that there is an increase in microbial activity and biomass when gas is present.

Deriving lessons relating to marine spatial planning from Canada's Eastern Scotian Shelf Integrated Management Initiative

Stakeholder participation is viewed as a key element of ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP). There is much debate over the effectiveness of stakeholder participation in ecosystem-based management (EBM) in general and over the form it should take. Particular challenges relating to participation in the marine environment are highlighted. A study of the Eastern Scotian Shelf Integrated Management initiative, which uses a collaborative planning model to implement EBM, is presented in order to explore these issues further. Criteria derived from a review of collaborative planning literature are employed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model, which is found to be a useful consensus-building tool. Although a strategic-level plan has been adopted, the initiative has encountered difficulties transitioning from plan development to plan implementation. These are attributable in large measure to deficiencies in the design of the collaborative model. Useful lessons relating mainly to stakeholder engagement, the role of the lead agency, and implementation strategies are advanced for those engaging in MSP processes.

Air-Sea Exchange of Legacy POPs in the North Sea Based on Results of Fate and Transport, and Shelf-Sea Hydrodynamic Ocean Models

The air-sea exchange of two legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), γ-HCH and PCB 153, in the North Sea, is presented and discussed using results of regional fate and transport and shelf-sea hydrodynamic ocean models for the period 1996–2005. Air-sea exchange occurs through gas exchange (deposition and volatilization), wet deposition and dry deposition. Atmospheric concentrations are interpolated into the model domain from results of the EMEP MSC-East multi-compartmental model (Gusev et al, 2009). The North Sea is net depositional for γ-HCH, and is dominated by gas deposition with notable seasonal variability and a downward trend over the 10 year period. Volatilization rates of γ-HCH are generally a factor of 2–3 less than gas deposition in winter, spring and summer but greater in autumn when the North Sea is net volatilizational. A downward trend in fugacity ratios is found, since gas deposition is decreasing faster than volatilization. The North Sea is net volatilizational for PCB 153, with highest rates of volatilization to deposition found in the areas surrounding polluted British and continental river sources. Large quantities of PCB 153 entering through rivers lead to very high local rates of volatilization.

Preaggregated Ag Nanoparticles in Dry Swellable Gel Films for Off-the-Shelf Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy

Large, thin (50 mu m) dry polymer sheets containing numerous surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) active Ag nanopartide aggregates have been prepared by drying aqueous mixtures of hydroxyethylcelloulose (HEC) and preaggregated Ag colloid in 10 x 10 cm molds. In these dry films, the particle aggregates are protected from the environment during storage and are easy to handle; for example, they can be cut to size with scissors. When in use, the highly swellable HEC polymer allowed the films to rapidly absorb aqueous analyte solutions while simultaneously releasing the Ag nanoparticle aggregates to interact with the analyte and generate large SERS signals. Either the films could be immersed in the analyte solution or 5 mu L droplets were applied to the surface; in the latter method, the local swelling caused the active area to dome upward, but the swollen film remained physically robust and could be handled as required. Importantly, encapsulation and release did not significantly compromise the SERS performance of the colloid; the signals given by the swollen films were similar to the very high signals obtained from the parent citrate-reduced colloid and were an order of magnitude larger than a commercially available nanoparticle substrate. These "Poly-SERS" films retained 70% of their SERS activity after being stored for 1 year in air. The films were sufficiently homogeneous to give a standard deviation of 3.2% in the absolute signal levels obtained from a test analyte, primarily due to the films' ability to suppress "coffee ring" drying marks, which meant that quantitative analysis without an internal standard was possible. The majority of the work used aqueous thiophenol as the test analyte; however, preliminary studies showed that the Poly-SERS films could also be used with nonaqueous solvents and for a range of other analytes including theophylline, a therapeutic drug, at a concentration as low as 1.0 x 10(-5) mol dm(-3) (1.8 mg/dm(3)), well below the sensitivity required for theophylline monitoring where the target range is 10-20 mg/dm(3).