Social cleavages and electoral support in Turkey -- toward convergence?

Studies on Western democracies have shown that deep-seated social cleavages stabilize the electoral behavior and thus reduce electoral volatility. But how do social cleavages affect a party system that is undergoing democratic consolidation, such as in Turkey? In this study, investigations were carried out on long- and short-term relationships between social cleavages (religiosity, ethnicity, and sectarism) and electoral volatility in Turkey during the 1961-2002 period. Cross-sectional multiple regressions were applied to electoral and demographic data at the provincial level. The results showed that in the long-term, social cleavages on the whole have increased volatility rather than reduced it. The cleavage-volatility relationship, however, has changed over time. Repeated elections have mitigated the volatile effect of social cleavages on the voting behavior, as political parties have become more representative of the existent social cleavages.

Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Design energy spectra for Turkey

This work proposes design energy spectra in terms of velocity, derived through linear dynamic analyses on Turkish registers and intended for regions with design peak acceleration 0.3 g or higher. In the long and mid period ranges the analyses are linear, taking profit of the rather insensitivity of the spectra to the structural parameters other than the fundamental period; in the short period range, the spectra are more sensitive to the structural parameters and nonlinear analyses would be required. The selected records are classified in eight groups according to the design input acceleration, the soil type, the earthquake magnitude and the near-source effects. For each of these groups, median and characteristic spectra are proposed (50% and 95% percentiles). These spectra have an initial linear growing branch in the short period range, a horizontal branch in the mid period range and a descending branch in the long period range.

Nationalism in the Troubled Triangle. Cyprus, Greece and Turkey

Peer reviewed

Turkey, Middle East, and the South Caucasus, 1771 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Turcia Asiatica : exhibens Natoliam modernam, in suos beglirbegatus divisam, itemque reliquos beglirbegatus, sive gubernationes et Prfecturas generales, in regionibus Georgiæ, Armeniæ, Mespotamiæ, Syriæ et Arabiæ sitos, una cum Mari Nigro, Mari Azowiensi, Mari di Marmora, et Mari Ægeo, atque adiacentibus Insulis : C. P. S. C. M. = Carte de la Turquie asiatique contenant la Natolie moderne divisée en les beglerbeys &c., ex novissimis subsidiis ac relationibus ad normam legitimae proiectionis in usum belli praesentis delineata impensis homannianorum heredum. It was published by Homannianorum Heredum in 1771. Scale [ca. 1:4,800,000]. Covers Turkey and portions of the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Map in Latin with title in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the World Miller Cylindrical projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial and provincial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown pictorially. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Islamic Heritage Project. Maps selected for the project represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes. The Islamic Heritage Project consists of over 100,000 digitized pages from Harvard's collections of Islamic manuscripts and published materials. Supported by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and developed in association with the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Islamic Studies Program at Harvard University.

Istanbul, Turkey, 1882 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan von Constantinopel mit den Vorstädten, dem Hafen, und einem Theile des Bosporus = Plan de Constantinople avec ses faubourgs, le port et une partie du Bosphore, aufgenommen und gezeichnet von C. Stolpe nach den zeitherigen Veränderungen berichtigt bis zum Jahre 1882. It was published by Verlag von Lorentz & Keil in 1882. Scale 1:15,000. Covers Istanbul, Turkey. Map in German and French.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'European Datum 1950 UTM Zone 35N' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map.This map shows features such as roads, railroads and stations, drainage, built-up areas (by ethnicity) and selected buildings, fortification, ground cover, parks, cemeteries, ruins, and more. Relief shown pictorially and by contours.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Istanbul, Turkey, 1922 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan d'ensemble de la ville d Constantinople. It was published by Guédik-Pacha in 1922. Scale 1:17,500. Covers Istanbul, Turkey. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'European Datum 1950 UTM Zone 35N' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map.This map shows features such as roads, railroads and stations, street railways, drainage, selected buildings, embassies, monuments, points of interest, parks, cemeteries, city districts, ruins, and more. Includes indexes.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Istanbul, Turkey, 1853 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Constantinople = Stambol, engraved by B.R. Davies ; Hellert. It was published by Geoge Cox for the Society for the Diffusion of Useful Knowledge, Jany. 1st, 1853. Scale [ca. 1:22,500,000]. Covers Istanbul, Turkey. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'European Datum 1950 UTM Zone 35N' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map.This map shows features such as roads, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings (mosques, embassies, hospitals, etc.), fortification and gates, ground cover, cemeteries, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Istanbul Region, Turkey, ca. 1900 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Karte des Bosporus und der Bithynischen Halbinsel, nach älteren Quellen (v. Moltke, Heinrich Kiepert, Brit. Admiralitätskarten, v. d. Goltz, v. Diest u.a.) und eigenen Aufnahmen im Jahre 1900 gezeichnet von Rudolf Fitzner ; Hof. Stdr. v. J. G. Tiedmann Nachf. It was published by C.J.E. Volckmann-Verlag ca. 1900. Scale 1:150,000. Covers the Istanbul region including portions of İstanbul İli, Yalova İli, Kocaeli İli, and Sakarya İli. Map in German. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the World Miller Cylindrical projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, roads, railroads, built-up areas, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Depths shown by contours and soundings. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Islamic Heritage Project. Maps selected for the project represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes. The Islamic Heritage Project consists of over 100,000 digitized pages from Harvard's collections of Islamic manuscripts and published materials. Supported by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and developed in association with the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Islamic Studies Program at Harvard University.

Istanbul and Bosporus Region, Turkey, 1821 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan de Constantinople : du Bosphore & du Canal de la Mer Noire dessiné d'apres les meilleurs materiaux, par F. Fried ; gravé par Rud. de Rothenburg. It was published by chez Artaria & Co. in 1821. Scale [ca. 1:50,000]. Covers Istanbul and Bosporus Region, Turkey. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'European Datum 1950 UTM Zone 35N' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, cities, towns, and villages, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings, fortification, city districts, ports, aqueducts, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Depths shown by soundings. Includes indexes, note, and inset: Plan du Serail. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.