Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2009

Includes bibliography

Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009

Includes bibliography

Climate change: selected economic dimensions

Includes bibliography

The economics of climate change in Central America: summary 2010

Includes Bibliography

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Bahamas

The Bahamas is at great risk and vulnerability given its geographical features as a low-lying, sea encircled country. If projected sea level rise is reached by 2050, between 10-12% of territory will be lost, especially in coastal zones where the main tourism assets are located. Vulnerability could also be manifested if flight carbon emission taxes are established in the main source markets, representing an economic threat to the tourism sector for the islands. The impact of climate change on main tourism demand variables will cause some losses to the country‟s income and government revenues. This would be acting conjointly with some local threats to tourism assets and trends in future global tourism demand. The second and no less important threat is tropical cyclones, which may be associated with raising sea level. Estimations posited the amount of losses in excess of 2400 million US$ for the four decades under examination. It is to be pointed out that there is still a lack of comparatively accurate data collection and analysis on this subject, a point deserving more attention in order to deepen the understanding of, and to extract better lessons from these extreme events. In the same period, total estimated impacts of progressive climate change are between 17 and 19 billions of B$ with estimated discount rates applied. The Bahamas is a Small Island Developing State with low growth on GHG emissions (second in Latin America), as well as a relative short capacity to lower emissions in the future. The country has a relative delay in the application of renewable energy systems, a solution that, provided documented studies on-site, might turn out to be fundamental in the country‟s efforts to establish mitigation related policies. The Bahamas currently has institutions and organizations that deal with climate change-related issues and an important number of measures and courses of action have been set up by the government. Nevertheless, more coordination among them is needed and should include international institutions. This coordination is essential even for the first steps, i.e. to conduct studies with a bottom-up approach in order to draw more accurate programs on adaptation and mitigation. It is fundamental for tourism to keep track of potential losses in tourist attractions (and to act accordingly), related to correspondent losses in biodiversity, water resources and coastal erosion. Also, actions to fight climate change impacts might improve the islands security standards, quality of living and protect cultural and heritage assets. These elements may definitely shape the future of the country‟s competitiveness as a tourism destination. It is possible and necessary to decide about the options with good cost-benefit ratio and reasonable payback periods, notwithstanding that cost-benefit analysis requires more refined and accurate data to provide precise and locally adapted options.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

The economics of climate change

This paper focuses on several key economic issues relevant to climate change. Given the fact that changes in climate are projections using the best available data, it examines the economic principles of uncertainty and the precautionary approach, and then continues to address the key drivers of climate change. Climate change is expected to result in negative impacts and, in this regard, the consequences of anticipated rising temperatures and sea levels as well as changes in precipitation that may result in flooding and/or drought are addressed. However, the situation is not all negative and, as such, the opportunities that are likely to arise through adaptation and mitigation are discussed especially with respect to the Caribbean. In this regard and recognizing that it would be useful to Caribbean policymakers to utilize these opportunities and to address the negative impacts, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), through its subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, is spearheading a review of the economics of climate change in the Caribbean with a view to providing quantitative information to stakeholders in dealing with climate change. The paper makes recommendations for the Caribbean to address climate change at the national level. These include macroplanning; promotion of energy efficiency; creation of incentives to obtain support for implementation of alternative energy technologies; maintaining the will among stakeholders on a sustained basis for addressing climate change; and the conduct of relevant research into varieties of plants and animals that could adapt to changing climatic conditions. Finally, it must be recognized that to successfully combat climate change, the threats and opportunities must be properly assessed as part of an ongoing region-wide system of risk management, which should not be incidental, but integral, to national and regional planning and forecasting for the future.

Climate change in Central América: Potential impacts and public policy options

Since 2008 we have supported the collaborative initiative "Economics of Climate Change in Central America" aimed at demonstrating the impacts of climate variability and change and fostering a discussion on public policies in key sectors. The initiative has been led by the Ministries of Environment and Treasury or Finance of Central America, with the support of their ministerial councils, CCAD, COSEFIN, and Economic Integration Secretariat, SIECA. The Ministries of Agriculture and of Health, with their councils, CAC and COMISCA, have also joined the effort; and the Dominican Republic came on board in 2015.

Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.

Climate Change Policy: The Waxman-Markey Bill

The Waxman-Markey Bill is a comprehensive national climate and energy legislation designed to reduce global warming pollution and transition to a clean energy economy. In order to accomplish the first goal, the bill introduces a cap-and-trade program.