906 resultados para Agricultural systems modelling
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Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?
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The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.
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The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.
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Las alteraciones del sistema climático debido al aumento de concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera, tendrán implicaciones importantes para la agricultura, el medio ambiente y la sociedad. La agricultura es una fuente importante de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (globalmente contribuye al 12% del total de GEI), y al mismo tiempo puede ser parte de la solución para mitigar las emisiones y adaptarse al cambio climático. Las acciones frente al desafío del cambio climático deben priorizar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación en la agricultura dentro de la agenda para el desarrollo de políticas. La agricultura es por tanto crucial para la conservación y el uso sostenible de los recursos naturales, que ya están sometidos a impactos del cambio climático, al mismo tiempo que debe suministrar alimentos para una población creciente. Por tanto, es necesaria una coordinación entre las actuales estrategias de política climática y agrícola. El concepto de agricultura climáticamente inteligente ha surgido para integrar todos estos servicios de la producción agraria. Al evaluar opciones para reducir las amenazas del cambio climático para la agricultura y el medio ambiente, surgen dos preguntas de investigación: • ¿Qué información es necesaria para definir prácticas agrarias inteligentes? • ¿Qué factores influyen en la implementación de las prácticas agrarias inteligentes? Esta Tesis trata de proporcionar información relevante sobre estas cuestiones generales con el fin de apoyar el desarrollo de la política climática. Se centra en sistemas agrícolas Mediterráneos. Esta Tesis integra diferentes métodos y herramientas para evaluar las alternativas de gestión agrícola y políticas con potencial para responder a las necesidades de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. La investigación incluye enfoques cuantitativos y cualitativos e integra variables agronómicas, de clima y socioeconómicas a escala local y regional. La investigación aporta una recopilación de datos sobre evidencia experimental existente, y un estudio integrado sobre el comportamiento de los agricultores y las posibles alternativas de cambio (por ejemplo, la tecnología, la gestión agrícola y la política climática). Los casos de estudio de esta Tesis - el humedal de Doñana (S España) y la región de Aragón (NE España) - permiten ilustrar dos sistemas Mediterráneos representativos, donde el uso intensivo de la agricultura y las condiciones semiáridas son ya una preocupación. Por este motivo, la adopción de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación puede desempeñar un papel muy importante a la hora de encontrar un equilibrio entre la equidad, la seguridad económica y el medio ambiente en los escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología multidisciplinar de esta tesis incluye una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recopilación y el análisis de datos. La toma de datos se apoya en la revisión bibliográfica de evidencia experimental, bases de datos públicas nacionales e internacionales y datos primarios recopilados mediante entrevistas semi-estructuradas con los grupos de interés (administraciones públicas, responsables políticos, asesores agrícolas, científicos y agricultores) y encuestas con agricultores. Los métodos de análisis incluyen: meta-análisis, modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos (modelo WAAPA), análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisiones, métodos estadísticos (modelos de regresión logística y de Poisson) y herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia. El meta-análisis identifica los umbrales críticos de temperatura que repercuten en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los tres cultivos principales para la seguridad alimentaria (arroz, maíz y trigo). El modelo WAAPA evalúa el efecto del cambio climático en la gestión del agua para la agricultura de acuerdo a diferentes alternativas políticas y escenarios climáticos. El análisis multicriterio evalúa la viabilidad de las prácticas agrícolas de mitigación en dos escenarios climáticos de acuerdo a la percepción de diferentes expertos. Los métodos estadísticos analizan los determinantes y las barreras para la adopción de prácticas agrícolas de mitigación. Las herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia muestran el potencial y el coste para reducir GEI mediante las prácticas agrícolas. En general, los resultados de esta Tesis proporcionan información sobre la adaptación y la mitigación del cambio climático a nivel de explotación para desarrollar una política climática más integrada y ayudar a los agricultores en la toma de decisiones. Los resultados muestran las temperaturas umbral y la respuesta del arroz, el maíz y el trigo a temperaturas extremas, siendo estos valores de gran utilidad para futuros estudios de impacto y adaptación. Los resultados obtenidos también aportan una serie de estrategias flexibles para la adaptación y la mitigación a escala local, proporcionando a su vez una mejor comprensión sobre las barreras y los incentivos para su adopción. La capacidad de mejorar la disponibilidad de agua y el potencial y el coste de reducción de GEI se han estimado para estas estrategias en los casos de estudio. Estos resultados podrían ayudar en el desarrollo de planes locales de adaptación y políticas regionales de mitigación, especialmente en las regiones Mediterráneas. ABSTRACT Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: • What information defines smart farming choices? • What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi-criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice, maize and wheat, so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. A portfolio of flexible adaptation and mitigation choices at local scale are identified. The results also provide a better understanding of the stakeholders oppose or support to adopt the choices which could be used to incorporate in local adaptation plans and mitigation regional policy. The findings include estimations for the farming and policy choices on the capacity to improve water supply reliability, abatement potential and cost-effective in Mediterranean regions.
Viability of the biochar production from different manure wastes in the Amblés Valley (Ávila, Spain)
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In the last years, intensive animal husbandry production has led to a large concentration of animals in small areas. This has resulted in the production of excessive amounts of manures with insufficient nearby land for application. One of this areas is the Amblés Valley located in the centre of Spain, near to Ávila city, with an extension of 167472 ha of which 88.9% is agricultural land. This valley has an important livestock focused on pig, cattle, chicken production which is associated with the generation of more than 200,000 t/year of manure. There are a number of environmental problems associated with these intensive agricultural systems, including N and P pollution of water bodies, methane emissions and odour pollution. These serious environmental threats are called for innovative environmental management approaches. A feasible technology for the management of manures, offering a potential to valorise these wastes, is pyrolysis, which results in the production of biochar. The objective of this work is evaluated the technical and economic feasibility of the production of biochar in Amblés Valley (Spain).
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Crop gene pools have adapted to and sustained the demands of agricultural systems for thousands of years. Yet, very little is known about their content, distribution, architecture, or circuitry. The presumably shallow elite gene pools often continue to yield genetic gains while the exotic pools remain mostly untapped, uncharacterized, and underutilized. The concept and content of a crop’s gene pools are being changed by advancements in plant science and technology. In the first generation of plant genomics, DNA markers have refined some perceptions of genetic variation by providing a glimpse of a primary source, DNA polymorphism. The markers have provided new and more powerful ways of assessing genetic relationships, diversity, and merit by infusing genetic information for the first time in many scenarios or in a more comprehensive manner for others. As a result, crop gene pools may be supplemented through more rapid and directed methods from a greater variety of sources. Previously limited by the barriers of sexual reproduction, the native gene pools will soon be complemented by another gene pool (transgenes) and perhaps by other native exotic gene pools through comparative analyses of plants’ biological repertoire. Plant genomics will be an important force of change for crop improvement. The plant science community and crop gene pools may be united and enriched as never before. Also, the genomes and gene pools, the products of evolution and crop domestication, will be reduced and subjected to the vagaries and potential divisiveness of intellectual property considerations. Let the gains begin.
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As práticas agrícolas, muito além de processos estritamente ecológicos, constituem processos sociais. Simplificações na dinâmica ecológica, impostas pela artificialização dos sistemas agrícolas, tem causado desequilíbrios entre produção e diversidade de espécies. A utilização de modernas tecnologias de manejo agrícola, desenvolvidas com o intuito de restabelecer o funcionamento de agrossistemas complexos e facilitar mecanismos de autoregulação do ambiente, estão amplamente conectadas a questões socioeconômicas. Concebidas com o propósito de conservar e ampliar a biodiversidade, facilitar a ciclagem de nutrientes, assim como diminuir impactos ao solo (tais como erodibilidade e compactação) além de, entre outros efeitos, preservar a umidade dos solos e propiciar microclima mais estável e ameno, as tecnologias de integração agropecuária e florestal tem sido implementadas em diferentes regiões do mundo. Pesquisas tem sido conduzidas quanto às práticas de implementação adequadas a cada ecossistema e às especificidades locais, com a expectativa de obtenção de resultados satisfatórios a partir das perspectivas ecológica, agronômica, econômica e social. Identificar e avaliar o grau de identificação dos pequenos e médios produtores rurais do município de Ipameri, sudeste de Goiás, com formas de produção agrícola diversificadas e integradas, bem como a viabilidade de utilização destas tecnologias em seu cotidiano, são os propósitos desta pesquisa. Buscou-se compreender, a partir da perspectiva destes atores sociais, as implicações dos efeitos decorrentes de variáveis econômicas, sociais, ambientais e simbólicas inerentes às práticas agronômicas eleitas por estes produtores, para condução de suas atividades e expressão de seus valores, preceitos, tradições e estilos de organização social. Concluiu-se que os sistemas integrados constituem alternativas para recuperação de áreas de pastagens degradas e da paisagem, representam oportunidades de geração de empregos, diversificação de renda para micro, pequenos e médios produtores locais. A despeito das dificuldades elencadas pelos interagentes da pesquisa para sua implementação, constitui-se em uma estratégia compreendida como viável e de interesse para os potenciais usuários
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El objetivo general de este proyecto se centra en el estudio, desarrollo y experimentación de diferentes técnicas y sistemas basados en Tecnologías del Lenguaje Humano (TLH) para el desarrollo de la próxima generación de sistemas de procesamiento inteligente de la información digital (modelado, recuperación, tratamiento, comprensión y descubrimiento) afrontando los actuales retos de la comunicación digital. En este nuevo escenario, los sistemas deben incorporar capacidades de razonamiento que descubrirán la subjetividad de la información en todos sus contextos (espacial, temporal y emocional) analizando las diferentes dimensiones de uso (multilingualidad, multimodalidad y registro).
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Se ha realizado un inventario de flora útil en la Partida de Carrizales en el término municipal de Elche (Alicante). A partir de entrevistas de tipo semiestructurado se han encontrado un total de 246 especies, de las cuales aparece una pequeña descripción botánica, ecológica y aplicación etnobotánica. Así, se pretende hacer una aproximación al conocimiento etnobotánico existente en una zona de regadío colonizada a partir del s. XVIII e intensamente antropizada. En nuestro trabajo hemos prestado atención no sólo a los cultivos que actualmente encontramos, sino también los que han estado presentes en el pasado, ya que conociendo sus características se pueden tratar de recuperar y crear productos con sello propio y dinamizar la economía local.
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Cover title.
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"June 19, 1981."
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The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.
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Pollination-dependent fruit trees grown in home gardens play an important role in the agricultural based economy of Central Asian countries, yet little is known about the status of pollinator communities, the cultivated plant composition or the factors that influence management practices in Kyrgyz home garden agroecosystems. As agricultural systems are human created and managed, a logical approach to their study blends anthropological and ecological methods, an ethnoecological approach. Over three years, I investigated how species richness and abundance of Hymenoptera, cultivated plants, and home garden management were related using quantitative and qualitative methods in the Issyk-kul Man and Biosphere reserve. Structured surveys were undertaken with heads of households using a random sample stratified by village. Gardens were then mapped with participation of household members to inventory edible species in gardens, most of which are pollinator-dependent, and to compare home garden diversity as reported by respondents during interviews. Apple diversity was studied to the variety level to understand respondents’ classification system in the context of in situ agrobiodiversity conservation. Household members identified 52 edible plant species when mapping the garden, compared with 32 reported when interviewed. The proportion of plant species received from others through exchange and the number of plots cultivated significantly explained the variation in edible plant diversity among gardens. Insects were sampled in gardens and orchards to determine potential pollinator community composition and the effect of different management practices on Hymenoptera richness and abundance. I collected 756 Hymenoptera individuals (56 bee; 12 wasp species); 12 species were new records for Kyrgyzstan or within Kyrgyzstan. Economic pressures to intensify cultivation could impact management practices that currently promote diversity. A home garden development initiative was undertaken to study management practice improvement. Participants in the initiative had higher adoption rates than controls of management practices that improve long-term yield, ecological sustainability and stability of home gardens. Home gardens, as currently managed, support abundant and diverse pollinator communities and have high cultivated plant diversity with few differences in community composition between garden management types.
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Pollination-dependent fruit trees grown in home gardens play an important role in the agricultural based economy of Central Asian countries, yet little is known about the status of pollinator communities, the cultivated plant composition or the factors that influence management practices in Kyrgyz home garden agroecosystems. As agricultural systems are human created and managed, a logical approach to their study blends anthropological and ecological methods, an ethnoecological approach. Over three years, I investigated how species richness and abundance of Hymenoptera, cultivated plants, and home garden management were related using quantitative and qualitative methods in the Issyk-kul Man and Biosphere reserve. Structured surveys were undertaken with heads of households using a random sample stratified by village. Gardens were then mapped with participation of household members to inventory edible species in gardens, most of which are pollinator-dependent, and to compare home garden diversity as reported by respondents during interviews. Apple diversity was studied to the variety level to understand respondents’ classification system in the context of in situ agrobiodiversity conservation. Household members identified 52 edible plant species when mapping the garden, compared with 32 reported when interviewed. The proportion of plant species received from others through exchange and the number of plots cultivated significantly explained the variation in edible plant diversity among gardens. Insects were sampled in gardens and orchards to determine potential pollinator community composition and the effect of different management practices on Hymenoptera richness and abundance. I collected 756 Hymenoptera individuals (56 bee; 12 wasp species); 12 species were new records for Kyrgyzstan or within Kyrgyzstan. Economic pressures to intensify cultivation could impact management practices that currently promote diversity. A home garden development initiative was undertaken to study management practice improvement. Participants in the initiative had higher adoption rates than controls of management practices that improve long-term yield, ecological sustainability and stability of home gardens. Home gardens, as currently managed, support abundant and diverse pollinator communities and have high cultivated plant diversity with few differences in community composition between garden management types.
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The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.