Uma experiência com modelo estatístico (MOS) para a previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar

Uma equação de regressão múltipla MOS (da sigla em inglês para Model Output Statistics), para previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar na cidade de Bauru, estado de São Paulo, é desenvolvida. A equação de regressão múltipla, obtida usando análise de regressão stepwise, tem quatro preditores, três do modelo numérico global do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) e um observacional da estação meteorológica do Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet), Bauru. Os preditores são prognósticos para 24 horas do modelo global, válidos para 00:00GMT, da temperatura em 1000hPa, vento meridional em 850hPa e umidade relativa em 1000hPa, e temperatura observada às 18:00GMT. Esses quatro preditores explicam, aproximadamente, 80% da variância total do preditando, com erro quadrático médio de 1,4°C, que é aproximadamente metade do desvio padrão da temperatura mínima diária do ar observada na estação do IPMet. Uma verificação da equação MOS com uma amostra independente de 47 casos mostra que a previsão não se deteriora significativamente quando o preditor observacional for desconsiderado. A equação MOS, com ou sem esse preditor, produz previsões com erro absoluto menor do que 1,5°C em 70% dos casos examinados. Este resultado encoraja a utilização da técnica MOS para previsão operacional da temperatura mínima e seu desenvolvimento para outros elementos do tempo e outras localidades.

Bases epidemiológicas para análise das más oclusões morfológicas como fatores de risco no desenvolvimento das desordens temporomandibulares de origem articular

Dentre as pesquisas empreendidas no campo da epidemiologia, um grupo específico aborda patologias de etiologia desconhecida ou não totalmente compreendidas. É dentro deste grupo que estão situadas as desordens temporomandibulares (DTM). Três estratégias observacionais básicas têm sido utilizadas para abordar o papel etiológico da má oclusão no desenvolvimento das DTM, dentro do repertório epidemiológico. São elas: estudos do tipo transversal, estudos de caso controle e estudos de coorte. Alguns experimentos clínicos são realizados com base na remoção do fator etiológico suspeito. Com base em uma revisão estruturada da literatura, a partir da metodologia empregada nos estudos selecionados, podemos concluir que a definição dos possíveis fatores etiológicos relacionados a subgrupos específicos de DTM é fundamental para que o papel das más oclusões no desenvolvimento destas desordens, embora pareça pequeno quando baseado nas evidências disponíveis, não seja subestimado. Pode ser útil a caracterização de uma oclusão normal como aquela associada como o menor risco para o desenvolvimento de problemas de DTM, mas é provavelmente inapropriada a aplicação destes parâmetros para reverter um problema intra-capsular já estabelecido. O conceito de uma oclusão de baixo fator de risco implicaria em um pequeno desvio entre RC e MIH, pequeno transpasse horizontal, transpasse vertical positivo e ausência de mordida cruzada posterior. Este conceito é compatível com o conceito de oclusão normal defendido por décadas, embora uma variação do normal ao invés de um critério absoluto deva ser permitida. Embora provavelmente seja prudente estabelecer metas morfológicas terapêuticas que busquem o que é observado em oclusões não tratadas julgadas normais ou ideais, o estabelecimento de uma oclusão que alcance todos os critérios gnatológicos, por meio de tratamento ortodôntico, talvez seja impossível e provavelmente desnecessário.

Potentialities and practical limitations of absolute neutron dosimetry using thin films of uranium and thorium applied to the fission track dating

Neutron dosimetry using natural uranium and thorium thin films makes possible that mineral dating by the fission-track method can be accomplished, even when poor thermalized neutron facilities are employed. In this case, the contributions of the fissions of (235)U, (238)U and (232)Th induced by thermal, epithermal and fast neutrons to the population of tracks produced during irradiation are quantified through the combined use of natural uranium and thorium films.If the Th/U ratio of the sample is known, only one irradiation (where the sample and the films of uranium and thorium are present) is necessary to perform the dating. However, if that ratio is unknown, it can be determined through another irradiation where the mineral to be dated and both films are placed inside a cadmium box.Problems related with film manufacturing and calibration are discussed. Special attention is given to the utilization of thin films having very low uranium content. The problems faced suggest that it may be better to substitute these films by uranium doped standard glasses calibrated with thicker uranium films (thickness greater than 1.5 x 10(13) mu m).

The absolute configuration of 1-(3 ',4 '-dihydroxycinnamoyl)cyclopentane-2,3-diol from the Amazonian tree Chimarrhis turbinata

An antioxidant, 1-(3',4'-dihydroxycinnamoyl) cyclopentane-2,3-diol [ or ( E)-2,3-dihydroxycyclopentyl-3-(3',4'-dihydroxyphenyl) acrylate ( 1)], and two known trans- and cis-chlorogenic acid methyl esters were isolated from the ethanolic extract of the leaves of Chimarrhis turbinata. The relative configuration of 1 was determined by NMR and by comparison of the circular dichroic spectrum ( CD) with those of the enantiomers of synthetic 3', 4'-dimethoxycinnamoyl analogues. The absolute configuration of one of the synthetic enantiomers was determined using the CD exciton chirality method. This established the structure of naturally occurring 1 as (E)- 2,3-dihydroxycyclopentyl- 3-(3', 4'-dihydroxyphenyl) acrylate.

Determination of absolute configuration of 1,3-diols by the modified Mosher's method using their di-MTPA esters

1,3-Diols are frequently involved in biologically important compounds and, therefore, determination of the stereochemistry of these structural elements, in particular those in acyclic systems, has been one of the focuses of attention in natural products chemistry. The modified Mosher's method, commonly used for the determination of the absolute configuration of secondary alcohols, was applied to determine the absolute configuration of 1,3-diols with their di-MTPA esters. Several epimeric pairs of syn- and anti-1,3-diols with known absolute configurations were converted to the corresponding di-MTPA esters and the Delta delta values were then calculated. For the acyclic syn-1,3-diols, the Delta delta values were systematically arranged as predicted from the basic concept of the modified Mosher's method, demonstrating that the method is valid for these compounds. In contrast, the Delta delta values were irregularly arranged for the acyclic anti-1,3-diols and, accordingly, this method is not valid for these cases. These results are complementary to those of the previously reported CD exciton chirality method and, hence, the combined use of the modified Mosher's method and the CD exciton chirality method can determine the absolute configuration of the acyclic 1,3-diols. Also, this method is successfully applicable to cyclic 1,3-diols irrespective of their relative stereochemistry. (C) 2002 Wiley-lass, Inc.

Automatic absolute orientation of scanned aerial photographs

Image orientation is a basic problem in Digital Photogrammetry. While interior and relative orientations were succesfully automated, the same can not be said about absolute orientation. This process can be automated by using an approach based on relational matching and a heuristic that uses the analytical relation between straight features in the object space and its homologous in the image space. A build-in self-diagnosis is also used in this method, that is based on the implementation of data snooping statistic test in the process of spatial resection, using the Iterated Extended Kalman Filtering (IEKF). The aim of this paper is to present the basic principles of the proposed approach and results based on real data.

Morphological characterization of follicle deviation in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers and cows

Follicle diameter deviation is defined as the beginning of the differential change in growth rates between the largest and next largest follicles subsequent to wave emergence and is considered a key component of follicle selection. Follicle selection has been extensively studied in European breeds of cattle (Bos taurus) but has not been critically studied in Zebu breeds (Bos indicus). The objectives of the present study were to determine and compare the morphological characteristics of deviation associated with the first post-ovulatory wave (Wave 1) of the estrous cycle in Nelore heifers (n = 8) and nonlactating cows (n = 11). Beginning on the day of ovulation (day 0), the three largest follicles (F1-F3, respectively) were individually tracked every 12 h for 6 d using transrectal ultrasonography. In individual animals, deviation was determined graphically using visual inspection of the diameter profiles of F1, F2 and sometimes F3 (observed deviation) and mathematically using segmented regression analysis of the diameter differences between F1 and F2 or sometimes F3 (calculated deviation). Mean day of emergence of Wave 1 when F1 reached >3 rum (approximately 1 d after ovulation) and growth rate of F1 during deviation (approximately 1.4 mm/d) were not significantly different between heifers and cows. The results of determining the beginning of deviation within heifers and cows using the observed and calculated methods were not significantly different. Averaged over both methods, diameter deviation occurred 2.8 d after ovulation when F1 reached 5.7 mm in heifers, and 2.4 d after ovulation when F1 reached 6.1 mm in cows. In conclusion, the emergence of Wave 1 and growth rates and diameters of the future dominant follicles at the beginning of deviation were similar in Nelore heifers and nonlactating cows, regardless of the methods used to determine deviation. Relative to Holstein cattle, emergence of Wave 1 appeared to occur about 1 d later and diameter of the future dominant follicle at the beginning of deviation was about 2 turn smaller in Nelore. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antioxidant Action of Mangrove Polyphenols against Gastric Damage Induced by Absolute Ethanol and Ischemia-Reperfusion in the Rat

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Deviation from the sech2 superradiant emission law in a two-level atomic system

The atomic superradiant emission is treated in the single-particle mean-field approximation. A single-particle Hamiltonian, which represents a dressed two-level atom in a radiation field, can be obtained and it is verified that it describes the transient regime of the emission process. While the line-shape emission for a bare atom follows the sech2 law, for the dressed atom the line shape deviates appreciably from this law and it is verified that the deviation depends crucially on the ratio of the dynamic frequency shift to the transition frequency. This kind of deviation is observed in experimental results. © 1990 The American Physical Society.

Role of luteinizing hormone in follicle deviation based on manipulating progesterone concentrations in mares

The effects of several doses of progesterone on FSH and LH concentrations were used to study the role of the gonadotropins on deviation in growth rates of the two largest follicles during the establishment of follicle dominance. Progesterone was given to pony mares at a daily dose rate of 0 mg (controls), 30 mg (low dose), 100 mg (intermediate dose), and 300 mg (high dose). All follicles ≥ 6 mm were ablated at Day 10 (Day 0 = ovulation) to initiate a new follicular wave; prostaglandin F(2α) was given to induce luteolysis, and progesterone was given from Days 10 to 24. The low dose did not significantly alter any of the ovarian or gonadotropin end points. The high dose reduced (P < 0.05) the ablation-induced FSH concentrations on Day 11. Maximum diameter of the largest follicle (17.2 ± 0.6 mm) and the second- largest follicle (15.5 ± 0.9 mm) in the high-dose group was less (P < 0.04) than the diameter of the second-largest follicle in the controls (20.0 ± 1.0 mm) at the beginning of deviation (Day 16.7 ± 0.4). Thus, the growth of the two largest follicles was reduced by the high dose, presumably through depression of FSH, so that the follicles did not attain a diameter characteristic of deviation in the controls. The intermediate dose did not affect FSH concentrations. However, the LH concentrations increased in the control, low, and intermediate groups, but then decreased (P < 0.05) in the intermediate group to pretreatment levels. The LH decrease in the intermediate group occurred 2 days before deviation in the controls. The maximum diameter of the largest follicle was less (P < 0.0001) in the intermediate group (27.3 ± 1.8 mm) than in the controls (38.9 ± 1.5 mm), but the maximum diameter of the second-largest follicle was not different between the two groups (19.0 ± 1.1 vs. 20.3 ± 1.0 mm). Thus, the onset of deviation, as assessed by the second-largest follicle, was not delayed by the decrease in LH. Diameter of the largest follicle by Day 18 in the intermediate group (23.1 ± 1.6 mm) was less (P < 0.05) than in the controls (28.0 ± 1.0 mm). These results suggest that circulating LH was not involved in the initiation of dominance (inhibition of other follicles by the largest follicle) but was required for the continued growth of the largest follicle after or concurrently with its initial expression of dominance.

Temporal interrelationships among luteolysis, FSH and LH concentrations and follicle deviation in mares

The effect of altered LH concentrations on the deviation in growth rates between the 2 largest follicles was studied in pony mares. The progestational phase was shortened by administration of PGF2α on Day 10 (Day 0=ovulation; n=9) or lengthened by daily administration of 100 mg of progesterone on Days 10 to 30 (n=11; controls, n=10). All follicles ≥5 mm were ablated on Day 10 in all groups to initiate a new follicular wave. The interovulatory interval was not altered by the PGF2α treatment despite a 4-day earlier decrease in progesterone concentrations. Time required for growth of the follicles of the new wave apparently delayed the interval to ovulation after luteolysis. The FSH concentrations of the first post-ablation FSH surge were not different among groups. A second FSH surge with an associated follicular wave began by Day 22 in 7 of 11 mares in the progesterone group and in 0 of 19 mares in the other groups, indicating reduced functional competence of the largest follicle. A prolonged elevation in LH concentrations began on the mean day of wave emergence (Day 11) in the prostaglandin group (19.2 ± 2.2 vs 9.0 ± 0.7 ng/mL in controls; P<0.05), an average of 4 d before an increase in the controls. Concentrations of LH in the progesterone group initially increased until Day 14 and then decreased so that by Day 18 the concentrations were lower (P<0.05) than in the control group (12.9 ± 1.6 vs 20.2 ± 2.6 ng/mL). Neither the early and prolonged increase nor the early decrease in LH concentrations altered the growth profile of the second-largest follicle, suggesting that LH was not involved in the initiation of deviation. However, the early decrease in LH concentrations in the progesterone group was followed by a smaller (P<0.05) diameter of the largest follicle by Day 20 (26.9 ± 1.7 mm) than the controls (30.3 ± 1.7 mm), suggesting that LH was necessary for continued growth of the largest follicle after deviation. (C) 2000 by Elsevier B.V.

Associated and independent comparisons between the two largest follicles preceding follicle deviation in cattle

Follicle diameters and concentrations of follicular fluid factors were studied in the two largest follicles (F1 and F2) using F1 diameters in increments of 0.2 mm (equivalent to 4 h intervals) and extending from 7.4 to 8.4 mm (12 heifers in each of 6 groups). Changes were compared between follicles using the F2 associated with each F1-diameter group. Diameter deviation began in the 8.2-mm group as indicated by a greater (P < 0.05) diameter difference between F1 and F2 in the 8.4-mm group than in the 8.2-mm group. In the 8.0-mm group, estradiol concentrations began to increase (P < 0.05) differentially in F1 versus F2, and free insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) began to decrease differentially in F2 (P < 0.06). Combined for F1 and the associated F2, activin-A concentrations increased (P < 0.05) between the 7.6- and 8.2-mm groups and then decreased (P < 0.05). Results supported the hypothesis that estradiol and free IGF-1 concentrations simultaneously become higher in F1 than in the associated F2 by the beginning of diameter deviation. Results did not support the hypothesis that a transient elevation in activin-A is present in F1 but not in the associated F2 at the beginning of the estradiol and IGF-1 changes; instead, a mean transient elevation in activin-A occurred at this time only when data for the two follicles were combined. Comparisons between F1 and F2 also were made by independently grouping F2 and using diameter groups at 0.2-mm increments for F2 as well as for F1. In the diameter groups common to F1 and F2 (7.4, 7.6, 7.8, and 8.0 mm) there was a group effect (P < 0.003) for estradiol involving an increase (P < 0.05) beginning at the 7.6-mm group averaged over F1 and F2. For free IGF-1 concentrations, a fluctuation (a significant increase followed by a significant decrease) occurred independently in F1 between the 7.4-to 7.8-mm groups and independently in F2 between the 7.0- to 7.4-mm groups.

Follicular dynamics and plasma FSH and progesterone concentrations during follicular deviation in the first post-ovulatory wave in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers

The objective of the present study was to characterize ovarian follicular dynamics and hormone concentrations during follicular deviation in the first wave after ovulation in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers. Ultrasonographic exams were performed and blood samples were collected every 12 h from the day of estrus until 120-144 h after ovulation in seven females. Deviation was defined as the point at which the growth rate of the dominant follicle became greater than the growth rate of the largest subordinate follicle. Deviation occurred approximately 65 h after ovulation. Growth rate of the dominant follicle increased (P < 0.05) after deviation, while growth rate of the subordinate follicle decreased (P < 0.05). Diameter of the dominant follicle did not differ from the subordinate follicle at deviation (approximately 5.4 mm). The dominant follicle (7.6 mm) was larger (P < 0.05) than the subordinate follicle (5.3 mm) 96 h after ovulation or 24 h after deviation. Plasma FSH concentrations did not change significantly during the post-ovulatory period. The first significant increase in mean plasma progesterone concentration occurred on the day of follicular deviation. In conclusion, the interval from ovulation to follicular deviation (2.7 days) was similar to that previously reported in B. taurus females, but follicles were smaller. Diameters of the dominant follicle and subordinate follicle did not differ before deviation and deviation was characterized by an increase in dominant follicle and decrease in subordinate follicle growth rate. Variations in FSH concentrations within 12-h intervals were not involved in follicular deviation in Nelore heifers. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Absolute neutrino mass from helicity measurements

The possibility to access the absolute neutrino mass scale through the measurement of the wrong helicity contribution of charged leptons is investigated in pion decay. Through this method, one may have access to the same effective mass m 2β extractable from the tritium beta decay experiments for electron neutrinos as well as the analogous effective mass $(m 2nuμ}){eff} for muon neutrinos. In the channel π-→ ē-v̄, the relative probability of producing an antineutrino with left helicity is enhanced if compared with the naive expectation (m ν/2E ν) 2. The possibility to constrain new interactions in the context of two-Higgs-Doublet models is also investigated. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.