Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.

Farmers behaviour on mitigation and adaptation to climate change: A case study in Kenya.

Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As increases in temperature will lead to increases in evapotranspiration, a potential increase in rainfall in Kenya may not offset the expected increases in agricultural water needs (Herrero et al. 2010). In order to respond to these present and future challenges, potential mitigation and adaptation options have been developed. However, implementation is not evident. In addition to their benefits in either mitigating or reducing the vulnerability of climate change effects, many of these options do not have economic costs and even provide economic benefits (e.g. savings in the consumption of energy or natural resources). Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that even when there are no biophysical, technological or economic constraints and despite their potential benefits from either the economic or environmental climate change point of view, not all farmers are willing to adopt these measures. This reflects the key role that behavioural barriers can play in the uptake of mitigation and adaptation measures.

A Discursive Perspective on China's Global Politics of Climate Change, 1992-2013

This dissertation investigates China’s recent shift in its climate change policy with a refined discourse approach. Methodologically, by adopting a neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony, a generative definition of discourse and an ontological pluralist position, the study constructs a theoretical framework named “discursive hegemony” that identifies the “social forces” for enabling social change and focuses on the role of discursive mechanisms via which the forces operate and produce effects. The key empirical finding of this study was that it was a co-evolution of conditions that shaped the outcome as China’s climate policy shift. In examining the case, a before-after within-case comparison was designed to analyze the variations in the material, institutional, and ideational conditions, with methods including interviews, conventional narrative/text analysis and descriptive statistics. Specifically, changes in energy use, the structure of decision-making body, and the narratives about sustainable development reflected how the above three types of social force processed in China in the first few years of the 21st century, causing the economic development agenda to absorb the climate issue, and turning the policy frame for the latter from mainly a diplomatic matter to a potential opportunity for better-quality growth. With the discursive operation of the “Science-based development”, China’s energy policy has been a good example of the Chinese understanding of sustainability characterized by economic primacy, ecological viability and social green-engineering. This way of discursive evolution, however, is a double-edged sword that has pushed forward some fast, top-down mitigation measures on the one hand, but has also created and will likely continue creating social and ecological havoc on the other hand. The study makes two major contributions. First and on the empirical level, because China is an international actor that was not expected to cooperate on the climate issue according to major IR theories, this study would add one critical case to the studies on global (environmental) governance and the ideational approach in the IR discipline. Second and on the theory-building level, the model of discursive hegemony can be a causally deeper mode of explanation because it traces the process of co-evolution of social forces.

Effects of climate change on fisheries : from a global to a regional perspective

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Marinha e Aquacultura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Economic and climate change pressures on biodiversity in southern Mediterranean coastal areas. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 24/February 2013

This paper establishes and measures key biodiversity and ecosystem health indicators and the number of world heritage sites in coastal areas at global level. It then estimates – econometrically – the indicators’ influence on the provision of tourism values through the marine ecosystem function as a harbour of biodiversity, and as a provider of amenity values and marine cultural identity. The report then focuses on the MEDPRO region, providing some estimates of the potential impact of climate change on these services for a given temperature increase scenario. Finally, the effect on ecosystemrelated tourism is computed for the four MEDPRO social economic scenarios. The analysis is enriched by some quantification of the potential costs of adaptation.

Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change affects both economy and society in several ways throughout the world. Therefore, well-targeted global and regional actions must be taken. In this paper I assess the different options for climate change mitigation policies and analyse the possibilities of adaptation methods. I will focus on three aspects: cost-efficiency, innovation and flexibility.

The Political Economy of Climate Adaptation and Environmental Health: The Case of Ethiopia

The environment affects our health, livelihoods, and the social and political institutions within which we interact. Indeed, nearly a quarter of the global disease burden is attributed to environmental factors, and many of these factors are exacerbated by global climate change. Thus, the central research question of this dissertation is: How do people cope with and adapt to uncertainty, complexity, and change of environmental and health conditions? Specifically, I ask how institutional factors, risk aversion, and behaviors affect environmental health outcomes. I further assess the role of social capital in climate adaptation, and specifically compare individual and collective adaptation. I then analyze how policy develops accounting for both adaptation to the effects of climate and mitigation of climate-changing emissions. In order to empirically test the relationships between these variables at multiple levels, I combine multiple methods, including semi-structured interviews, surveys, and field experiments, along with health and water quality data. This dissertation uses the case of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, which has a large rural population and is considered very vulnerable to climate change. My fieldwork included interviews and institutional data collection at the national level, and a three-year study (2012-2014) of approximately 400 households in 20 villages in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. I evaluate the theoretical relationships between households, communities, and government in the process of adaptation to environmental stresses. Through my analyses, I demonstrate that water source choice varies by individual risk aversion and institutional context, which ultimately has implications for environmental health outcomes. I show that qualitative measures of trust predict cooperation in adaptation, consistent with social capital theory, but that measures of trust are negatively related with private adaptation by the individual. Finally, I describe how Ethiopia had some unique characteristics, significantly reinforced by international actors, that led to the development of an extensive climate policy, and yet with some challenges remaining for implementation. These results suggest a potential for adaptation through the interactions among individuals, communities, and government in the search for transformative processes when confronting environmental threats and climate change.

Farmers' Resilience to Climate Change in the Welsh Marshes

Climate change will exacerbate challenges facing food security in the UK. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will further impact upon farm systems. At the heart of the impending challenges to UK agricultural production, farmers’ resilience will be tested to new limits. Research into farmers’ resilience to climate change in the UK is distinctly underdeveloped when compared to research in developing and other developed nations. This research gap is addressed through exploration of farmers’ resilience in the Welsh Marches, establishing the role of risk perceptions, local knowledge and adaptive capacity in farmers’ decision-making to limit climate shocks. Further contributions to agricultural geography are made through experimentation of a ‘cultural-behavioural approach’, seeking to revisit the behavioural approach in view of the cultural-turn. The Welsh Marches, situated on the English-Welsh border, has been selected as a focal point due to its agricultural diversity, and known experiences of extreme weather events. A phased mixed methodological approach is adopted. Phase one explores recorded and reported experiences of past extreme weather events in local meteorological records and local newspaper articles. Phase two consists of 115 survey-questionnaires, 15 in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a scenario based focus group with selected farmers from the Welsh Marches. This allows farmers’ resilience to climate change in the past, present and future to be explored. Original contributions to knowledge are made through demonstrating the value of focusing upon the culture of a specific farm community, applying a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The priority given to the weather in farmers’ decision-making is identified to be determined by individual relationships that farmers’ develop with the weather. Yet, a consensus of farmers’ observations has established recognition of considerable changes in the weather over the last 30 years, acknowledging more extremes and seasonal variations. In contrast, perceptions of future climate change are largely varied. Farmers are found to be disengaged with the communication of climate change science, as the global impacts portrayed are distant in time and place from probable impacts that may be experienced locally. Current communication of climate change information has been identified to alienate farmers from the local reality of probable future impacts. Adaptation options and responses to extreme weather and climate change are identified from measures found to be already implemented and considered for the future. A greater need to explore local knowledge and risk perception in relation to farmers’ understanding of future climate challenges is clear. There is a need to conduct comparable research in different farm communities across the UK. Progression into establishing the role of farmers’ resilience in responding effectively to future climate challenges has only just begun.

The Australian response to climate change : business as usual or legal innovation?

Through international agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol the global community has acknowledged that climate change is a global problem and sought to achieve reductions in global emissions, within a sufficient timeframe, to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The sheer magnitude of emissions reductions required within such an urgent timeframe presents a challenge to conventional regulatory approaches both internationally and within Australia. The phenomenon of climate change is temporally and geographically challenging and it is scientifically complex and uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the current Australian legal response to climate change and to examine the legal measures which have been proposed to promote carbon trading, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon sequestration initiatives across Australia. As this paper illustrates, the current Australian approach is clearly ineffective and the law as it stands overwhelmingly inadequate to address Australia’s emissions and meet the enormity of the challenges posed by climate change. Consequently, the government should look towards a more effective legal framework to achieve rapid and urgent transformations in the selection of energy sources, energy use and sequestration initiatives across the Australian community.

Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia : community perceptions, attitudes and (in) actions

Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities, which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the broader rural community – not only farmers – conceptualise climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria, and the North-East of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need for action, the role of local industry, who will 'win' and 'lose', and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular, residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of 'climate change', whereas those who were more sceptical termed it 'weather variability', suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities in the 21st century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies.

Status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment

The cycling interaction between climate change and building performance is of dynamic nature and both are essentially the cause and the effect of each other. On one hand, buildings contribute significantly to the global warming process. On the other hand, climate change is also expected to impact on many aspects of building performance. In this paper, the status of current research on the implication of climate change on built environment is reviewed. It is found that although the present research has covered broad areas of research, they are generally only limited to the qualitative analyses. It is also highlighted that although it is widely realized that reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector is very important, the adoption of complementary adaptation strategy to prepare the building for a range of climate change scenarios is also necessary. Due to the lack of holistic approach to generate future hourly weather data, various approaches have been used to generate different key weather variables. This ad hoc situation has seriously hindered the application of building simulation technique to the climate change impact study, in particular, to provide quantitative information for policy and design development.

The influence of justice theories on international climate policies and measures

While the justice implications of climate change are well understood by the international climate regime, solutions to meaningfully address climate injustice are still emerging. This article explores how a number of different theories of justice have influenced the development of international climate regime policies and measures. Such analysis is undertaken by examining the theories of remedial justice, environmental justice, energy justice, social justice and international justice. This article demonstrates how each of these theories has influenced the development of international climate policies or measures. No one theory of justice has the ability to respond to the multifaceted justice implications that arise as a result of climate change. It is argued that a variety of lenses of justice are useful when examining issues of injustice in the climate context. It is believed that articulating the justice implications of climate change by reference to theories of justice assists in clarifying the key issues giving rise to injustice. This article finds that while there has been some progress by the regime in recognising the injustices associated with climate change, such recognition is piecemeal and the implementation of many of the policies and measures discussed within this article needs to be either scaled up, or extended into more far-reaching policies and measures to overcome climate justice concerns. Overall it is suggested that climate justice concerns need to be clearly enunciated within key adaptation instruments so as to provide a legal and legitimate basis upon which to leverage action.