Estimating the emigration rate of fish stocks from marine sanctuaries using tag-recovery data

A critical process in assessing the impact of marine sanctuaries on fish stocks is the movement of fish out into surrounding fished areas. A method is presented for estimating the yearly rate of emigration of animals from a protected (“no-take”) zone. Movement rates for exploited populations are usually inferred from tag-recovery studies, where tagged individuals are released into the sea at known locations and their location of recapture is reported by fishermen. There are three drawbacks, however, with this method of estimating movement rates: 1) if animals are tagged and released into both protected and fished areas, movement rates will be overestimated if the prohibition on recapturing tagged fish later from within the protected area is not made explicit; 2) the times of recapture are random; and 3) an unknown proportion of tagged animals are recaptured but not reported back to researchers. An estimation method is proposed which addresses these three drawbacks of tag-recovery data. An analytic formula and an associated double-hypergeometric likelihood method were derived. These two estimators of emigration rate were applied to tag recoveries from southern rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) released into a sanctuary and into its surrounding fished area in South Australia.

毛乌素沙地优势植物对全球气候变化的响应研究

毛乌素沙地是中国半干旱地区典型沙地，这里的干旱生态系统对全球的水热配合格局的变化具有很灵敏的响应。随着未来全球气候变化，如温度和降水量变化，将给这里的陆地生态系统分布格局和生产力以及水分平衡带来巨大影响。故本文人工控制157. 5mm、315. Omm、472. 5mm和630. Omm4种施水量水平以及25/20℃和28/23℃（白天／晚上）两种温度，来研究与模拟毛乌素沙地优势植物对水分和温度变化的响应。 以沙柳、杨柴和油蒿幼苗为研究对象，人工控制4种降水量水平来探讨它们的水分平衡对全球变化中降水量变化的响应。结果表明，随着施水量的增加，沙地贮水量及其它的变化量、湿度、蒸发量和蒸腾量均逐渐增大。并且157. 5mm和315. Omm施水量的植物沙地出现水分亏缺现象。相同施水量下，沙地蓄水量和湿度均杨柴沙地>沙柳沙地>油蒿沙地，而植物蒸腾量却油蒿>沙柳>杨柴。 以沙柳和油蒿幼苗为研究对象，人工控制4种降水量水平来探讨植物气体交换过程对全球变化中降水量变化的响应。结果表明，施水量的增加显著提高了两种植物的净光合速率、蒸腾速率、气孔导度和光能利用效率，并且显著降低了叶片温度。同时，157. 5mm施水量造成沙柳和油蒿的净光合速率和蒸腾速率具有显著的“午睡”现象，而充足施水却有效的解除或缓解这种“午睡”现象。 以沙柳、杨柴、油蒿和柠条幼苗为研究对象，人工控制4种降水量水平来探讨植物叶绿素荧光对全球变化中降水量变化的响应。结果表明，不同施水量对这4种植物的初始荧光、最大荧光、可变荧光和PSII光化学效率均具有显著影响。157. 5mm施水量的沙柳、杨柴、油蒿和柠条以及630. Omm施水量的柠条出现明显的光抑制现象。 以沙柳、杨柴、油蒿和柠条幼苗为研究对象，人工控制4种降水量水平来探讨植物生长对全球变化中降水量变化的响应。结果表明，施水量的增加对沙柳、油蒿和杨柴枝叶形态和生物量等都具有显著正效应。而157. 5mm和630. Omrn的施水量对柠条生长具有负作用。另外，沙柳、杨柴和油蒿根冠生物量比随着施水量增加均逐渐减小，而不同施水量的油蒿根冠生物量比之间差异不显著。 以柠条、杨柴和油蒿幼苗为研究对象，人工控制两种温度水平来探讨植物形态、生物量和气候交换特征对增温的响应。结果表明，增温显著提高了柠条和杨柴株高、叶数、叶面积、生物量、净光合速率、蒸腾速率和气孔导度，却显著降低了水分利用效率。增温对油蒿叶数、叶大小、叶面积、生物量、蒸腾速率和气孔导度没有显著影响，却显著提高了油蒿的树高和净光合速率。柠条、杨柴和油蒿之间的种间生长和生理特征均有显著差异。