Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Growth strategies in tourism entertainment industry - a pratical application-

In the past few years, prompted by the globalization and the quality and ease of travel, the world has witnessed a boom in the tourism sector. The forecast is that this tendency will continue in the upcoming years, representing a set of opportunities for companies operating in this business area. Boost Tourism operates in the tourism entertainment industry. Its revenues growth has been exponential so the founders decided that it was time to take it to new heights. This Work Project aims to study three alternative growth strategies and, based on a comprehensive analysis of the industry and the market, provide recommendations to outline the optimal expansion path.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Holistic approach, tourism

Holistic refers to something that emphasizes the whole and the interdependence of its parts. It can be conceptualized as interdisciplinary: the claim that most social and economic phenomena cannot be fully understood or explained without adopting an approach that goes beyond the aims of a single scientific discipline.

Forecasting human entrances at a commercial store using facial recognition data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

A comparative analysis of sustainable tourism, planning and development between Sligo and Donegal County Councils

Sustainable Development requires appropriate and continuous planning and management of economic, socio cultural and environmental resources. Tourism planning calls for continuous collaboration among tourism agencies, local authorities and local communities for success of the industry. While evidence suggests that tourism planning has been extensively documented, it is apparent that Donegal and Sligo County Councils have, in some cases failed to adequately address the significance of planning of the tourism industry for the North West of Ireland. This was investigated through interviews with chief planners of Donegal and Sligo county councils and was conducted in conjunction with the analysis of county development plans; which were formulated by both organisations involved in this study. Evidence suggests that although tourism is extensively documented by Donegal and Sligo county councils, neither of the two local authorities have developed implementation strategies to facilitate the promotion of sustainable tourism development. This research compares and analyses Donegal and Sligo county councils and how they plan for sustainable tourism development. It outlines the role of the county councils in relation to tourism planning and how Donegal and Sligo compare in how they plan for such a significant industry in the North West o f Ireland. It highlights the importance of implementation tools and methods and offers future directions that can assist in the development of sustainable tourism.

Tourism education in Ireland : an analysis of the provision of third level tourism education in Ireland focusing on the needs of the public, private and voluntary sectors

Tourism education in Ireland has witnessed a transformation within the last four decades since CERT introduced the first fundamentals of training in the 1960’s. An analysis of the provision of tourism education in Ireland, focusing on the needs of the public, private and voluntary sectors was the main focus of this study and concentrates mainly on third level provision of tourism education within the island of Ireland. The study examines the role of tourism education in Ireland, establishing any current or emerging trends in third level tourism provision. It identifies and analyses the main stakeholders in the public, private and voluntary sectors and investigates if any requirements exist in the provision of third level education. The multi-faceted nature of the tourism industry has resulted in the provision of a diverse range of educational courses. As a result of this diversity, a question hangs over the status of tourism as a professional discipline within itself. Other issues identified through this study are the over provision of tourism courses and the current and future disparity within tourism education. The qualitative nature of the research involved questioning of major stakeholders and educators who influence tourism education provision and developing an overview of the current status of tourism education provision in Ireland identifying the present needs of each sector. Finally several strategies are suggested which may enhance third level tourism education in the future.

Population dynamics of 0-group flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) in Galway Bay, West of Ireland and the value of flounder from shore angling tourism in Ireland

The economic value of flounder from shore angling around Ireland was assessed. Flounder catches from shore angling tournaments around Ireland were related to domestic and overseas shore angling expenditure in order to determine an economic value for the species. Temporal trends in flounder angling catches, and specimen (trophy) flounder reports were also investigated. Flounder was found to be the most caught shore angling species in competitions around Ireland constituting roughly one third of the shore angling competition catch although this did vary by area. The total value of flounder from shore angling tourism was estimated to be of the order of €8.4 million. No significant temporal trends in flounder angling catches and specimen reports were found. Thus there is no evidence from the current study for any decline in flounder stocks. The population dynamics of 0-group flounder during the early benthic stage was investigated at estuarine sites in Galway Bay, west of Ireland. Information was analysed from the March to June sampling period over five years (2002 to 2006). Spatial and temporal variations in settlement and population length structure were analysed between beach and river habitats and sites. Settlement of flounder began from late March to early May of each year, most commonly in April. Peak settlement was usually in April or early May. Settlement was recorded earlier than elsewhere, although most commonly was similar to the southern part of the UK and northern France. Settlement was generally later in tidal rivers than on sandy beaches. Abundance of 0-group flounder in Galway Bay did not exhibit significant inter -annual variability. 0-group flounder were observed in dense aggregations of up to 105 m'2, which were patchy in distribution. Highest densities of 0-group flounder were recorded in limnetic and oligohaline areas as compared with the lower densities in polyhaline and to a lesser extent mesohaline areas. Measurements to of salinity allowed the classification of beaches, and tidal river sections near the mouth, into a salinity based scheme for length comparisons. Beaches were classified as polyhaline,the lower section of rivers as mesohaline, and the middle and upper sections as oligohaline. Over the March to June sampling period 0-group flounder utilised different sections at different length ranges and were significantly larger in more upstream sections. During initial settlement in April, 0-group flounder of 8-10 mm (standard length, SL) were present in abundance on polyhaline sandy beaches. By about 10mm (SL), flounder were present in all polyhaline, mesohaline and (oligohaline) sections. 0-group flounder became absent or in insignificant numbers in polyhaline and mesohaline sections in a matter of weeks after first appearance. From April to June, 0-group flounder of 12-30mm (SL) were found in more upstream locations in the oligohaline sections. About one month (May or June) after initial settlement, 0-group flounder became absent from the oligohaline sections. Concurrently, flounder start to reappear in mesohaline and polyhaline areas at approximately 30mm (SL) in June. The results indicate 0-group flounder in the early benthic stage are associated with low salinity areas, but as they grow, this association diminishes. Results strongly suggest that migration of 0-group flounder between habitats takes place during the early benthic phase.

Tourism Climate Index in Batumi

ნაშრომში მოცემულია ბათუმისათვის ტურიზმის კლიმატური პოტენციალის შეფასება სხვადასხვა ქვეყანაში ხშირად ხმარებული “ტურიზმის კლიმატური ინდექსის” შესაბამისად

Tourism Climate Index in Tbilisi

ნაშრომში მოცემულია თბილისისათვის ტურიზმის კლიმატური პოტენციალის შეფასება სხვადასხვა ქვეყანაში ხშირად ხმარებული “ტურიზმის კლიმატური ინდექსის” შესაბამისად.

Long-term Forecasting of Frame Alignment Losses for Circuit Emulation Implementation

The article provides a method for long-term forecast of frame alignment losses based on the bit-error rate monitoring for structure-agnostic circuit emulation service over Ethernet in a mobile backhaul network. The developed method with corresponding algorithm allows to detect instants of probable frame alignment losses in a long term perspective in order to give engineering personnel extra time to take some measures aimed at losses prevention. Moreover, long-term forecast of frame alignment losses allows to make a decision about the volume of TDM data encapsulated into a circuit emulation frame in order to increase utilization of the emulated circuit. The developed long-term forecast method formalized with the corresponding algorithm is recognized as cognitive and can act as a part of network predictive monitoring system.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Leveraging the Sydney Olympics for tourism

Paper presented at the 2000 seminar of the International Chair in Olympism. Key issues of the seminar included references to the concern for legacy in terms of tourism, benefits and challenges of the Olympic Games and strategic needs, among others.

Tourism and urban transport: holding demand pressure under supply constraints

Scholars and local planners are increasingly interested in tourism contribution to economic and social development. To this regard, several European cities lead the world rankings on tourist arrivals, and their governments have promoted tourism activity. Mobility is an essential service for tourists visiting large cities, since it is a crucial factor for their comfort. In addition, it facilitates the spread of benefits across the city. The aim of this study is to determine whether city planners respond to this additional urban transport demand pressure by extending supply services. We use an international database of European cities. Our results confirm that tourism intensity is a demand enhancing factor on urban transport. Contrarily, cities do not seem to address this pressure by increasing service supply. This suggests that tourism exerts a positive externality on public transport since it provides additional funding for these services, but it imposes as well external costs on resident users because of congestion given supply constraints.

Explaining High Economic Growth in Small Tourism Countries with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper shows that tourism specialisation can help to explain the observed high growth rates of small countries. For this purpose, two models of growth and trade are constructed to represent the trade relations between two countries. One of the countries is large, rich, has an own source of sustained growth and produces a tradable capital good. The other is a small poor economy, which does not have an own engine of growth and produces tradable tourism services. The poor country exports tourism services to and imports capital goods from the rich economy. In one model tourism is a luxury good, while in the other the expenditure elasticity of tourism imports is unitary. Two main results are obtained. In the long run, the tourism country overcomes decreasing returns and permanently grows because its terms of trade continuously improve. Since the tourism sector is relatively less productive than the capital good sector, tourism services become relatively scarcer and hence more expensive than the capital good. Moreover, along the transition the growth rate of the tourism economy holds well above the one of the rich country for a long time. The growth rate differential between countries is particularly high when tourism is a luxury good. In this case, there is a faster increase in the tourism demand. As a result, investment of the small economy is boosted and its terms of trade highly improve.