Efeitos dos choques de políticas monetária e fiscal sobre as expectativas de inflação no Brasil

In the past few years, uncertainty regarding fiscal situation in Brazil has raised concerns about Central Bank’s ability to anchor inflation expectations. This work examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in inflation expectations in Brazil from 2003 to 2015, using VAR models. The results show that unexpected increases in the overnight interest rate lower 12 and 24-months-ahead inflation expectations. However when we reestimate the model using only the late sample (2010-2015), the effects of monetary shocks in inflation expectations are not statistically significant. On the other hand, negative shocks in primary balance expectations have a positive and stronger effect on inflation expectations for recent years. These results suggest that the deanchoring of inflation expectations in Brazil over the past five years is no longer a monetary phenomenon but a fiscal phenomenon.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

Water Island study : summary report and fiscal analysis.

Study undertaken by Dept. of Commerce, Virgin Islands in response to a request from the U.S. Dept. of Interior.

Monetary and banking policy of Chile.

Mode of access: Internet.

Monetary and banking reform in Paraguay.

Mode of access: Internet.

Articles of agreement, International monetary fund and International bank for reconstruction and development, United Nations monetary and financial conference, Bretton Woods, N.H., July 1 to 22, 1944.

Mode of access: Internet.

Report of the National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems. : Message from the President of the United States, transmitting report of the National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems for the period of the last 6 months.

Caption title.

A manual of spherical and practical astronomy : embracing the general problems of spherical astronomy, the special applications to nautical astronomy and the theory and use of fixed and portable astronomical instruments /

Mode of access: Internet.

An English grammar, in familiar conversations, inductive and progressive; uniting and harmonizing theory and practice, and adapted to oral teaching.

Includes bibliographical references.

A practical grammar of the English language : in which the principles established by Lindley Murray, are inculcated, and the theory of modes clearly illustrated by diagrams, representing the number of tenses in each mode, their signs and the manner in which they are formed /

Williamson,

Relativity : the special and general theory /

Includes index.

Man and society, political and social theory.

Bibliographical footnotes.

Articles of agreement of the International Monetary Fund. Adopted at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, July 22, 1944. Effective December 27, 1945.

Mode of access: Internet.

Idealism and the Theory of Knowledge.

Mode of access: Internet.

Wind, sea and swell : theory of relations for forecasting /

Mode of access: Internet.