Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Modelling energy utilisation in broiler breeder hens

1. The objective of this study was to determine a metabolisable energy ( ME) requirement model for broiler breeder hens. The influence of temperature on ME requirements for maintenance was determined in experiments conducted in three environmental rooms with temperatures kept constant at 13, 21 and 30 degrees C using a comparative slaughter technique. The energy requirements for weight gain were determined based upon body energy content and efficiency of energy utilisation for weight gain. The energy requirements for egg production were determined on the basis of egg energy content and efficiency of energy deposition in the eggs.2. The following model was developed using these results: ME = kgW(0.75)(806.53 - 26.45T + 0.50T(2)) + 31.90G + 10.04EM, where kgW(0.75) is body weight (kg) raised to the power 0.75, T is temperature (degrees C), G is weight gain (g) and EM is egg mass (g).3. A feeding trial was conducted using 400 Hubbard Hi-Yield broiler breeder hens and 40 Peterson males from 31 to 46 weeks of age in order to compare use of the model with a recommended feeding programme for this strain of bird. The application of the model in breeder hens provided good productive and reproductive performance and better results in feed and energy conversion than in hens fed according to strain recommendation. In conclusion, the model evaluated predicted an ME intake which matched breeder hens' requirements.

Preparo e caracterização de membranas de quitosana modificadas com poli (ácido acrílico)

The aim of this study was to generate an asymmetric biocompactible and biodegradable chitosan membrane modified by the contact with a poly(acrylic acid) solution at one of its sides at room temperature and 60◦C. The pure chitosan membrane, as well as the ones treated with poly(acrylic acid) were characterized by infrared spectroscopy (FTIRATR) at angles of 39◦, 45◦ and 60◦ , swelling capacity in water, thermal analysis (TG/DTG), scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) and permeation experiments using metronidazole at 0,1% and 0,2% as a model drug. The results confirmed the presence of ionic interaction between chitosan and poly(acrylic acid) by means of a polyelectrolyte complex (PEC) formation. They also showed that such interactions were more effective at 60◦C since this temperature is above the chitosan glass transition temperature wich makes the diffusion of poly(acrylic acid) easier, and that the two treated membranes were asymmetrics, more thermically stable and less permeable in relation to metronidazole than the pure chitosan membrane

Photoelastic Analysis of Cemented or Screwed Implant-Supported Prostheses With Different Prostheses Connections

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between univariate and bivariate geostatistical models for estimating catch per unit of effort (cpue): A simulation study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Índice de capacidade do processo na avaliação da irrigação por aspersão

Analisar a qualidade da irrigação, além de avaliar seu bom funcionamento, é uma forma de verificar a viabilidade de sua implantação e operação. Como a uniformidade de distribuição é um dos parâmetros mais utilizados para essa avaliação, este trabalho objetivou utilizar técnicas de engenharia de qualidade, usando o índice de capacidade do processo (Cpl) para avaliar a uniformidade de distribuição de água em um sistema de irrigação por aspersão convencional. Os ensaios foram conduzidos no Núcleo Experimental de Engenharia Agrícola, UNIOESTE, com dois aspersores modelo Super10, marca NAANDAN, espaçados 9 m entre si, durante 25 irrigações de 1 h cada. Os dados climáticos foram coletados a cada 10 min, por uma estação meteorológica sem fio. Encontraram-se um CUC médio de 79,72% e velocidade do vento média de 1,85 m s-1. Foram aplicados os testes de controle de qualidade, elaborando os gráficos de controle de Shewhart e calculado o índice de capacidade do processo (Cpl), sendo que os resultados obtidos permitem afirmar que a utilização do índice de capacidade do processo torna-se uma ferramenta poderosa para classificar sistemas de irrigação em função de sua uniformidade de distribuição.

Simple orbit determination using GPS based on a least-squares algorithm employing sequential givens rotations

A low-cost computer procedure to determine the orbit of an artificial satellite by using short arc data from an onboard GPS receiver is proposed. Pseudoranges are used as measurements to estimate the orbit via recursive least squares method. The algorithm applies orthogonal Givens rotations for solving recursive and sequential orbit determination problems. To assess the procedure, it was applied to the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite for data batches of one orbital period (approximately two hours), and force modelling, due to the full JGM-2 gravity field model, was considered. When compared with the reference Precision Orbit Ephemeris (POE) of JPL/NASA, the results have indicated that precision better than 9 m is easily obtained, even when short batches of data are used. Copyright (c) 2007.

Intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxide pollution plumes

We describe the first satellite observation of intercontinental transport of nitrogen oxides emitted by power plants, verified by simulations with a particle tracer model. The analysis of such episodes shows that anthropogenic NOx plumes may influence the atmospheric chemistry thousands of kilometers away from its origin, as well as the ocean they traverse due to nitrogen fertilization. This kind of monitoring became possible by applying an improved algorithm to extract the tropospheric fraction of NO2 from the spectral data coming from the GOME instrument.As an example we show the observation of NO2 in the time period 4-14 May, 1998, from the South African Plateau to Australia which was possible due to favourable weather conditions during that time period which availed the satellite measurement. This episode was also simulated with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART which uses NOx emissions taken from an inventory for industrial emissions in South Africa and is driven with analyses from the European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts. Additionally lightning emissions were taken into account by utilizing Lightning Imaging Sensor data. Lightning was found to contribute probably not more than 25% of the resulting concentrations. Both, the measured and simulated emission plume show matching patterns while traversing the Indian Ocean to Australia and show great resemblance to the aerosol and CO2 transport observed by Piketh et al. (2000).

Relationship Between Speed and Time in Running

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of using different mathematical models to describe the relationship between treadmill running speed and time to exhaustion. All models generated a value for an aerobic parameter (critical speed; S(critical)). 35 university students performed 5-7 constant-speed 0%-slope treadmill tests at speeds that elicited exhaustion in similar to 3 min to similar to 10 min. Speed and time data were fitted using 3 models: (1) a 2-parameter hyperbolic model; (2) a 3-parameter hyperbolic model; and (3) a hybrid 3-parameter hyperbolic + exponential model. The 2-parameter model generated values for S(critical) (mean (+/- SD): 186 +/- 33 m.min(-1)) and anaerobic distance capacity (ADC; 251 +/- 122 m) with a high level of statistical certainty (i.e., with small SEEs). The 3-parameter models generated parameter estimates that were unrealistic in magnitude and/or associated with large SEEs and little statistical certainty. Therefore, it was concluded that, for the range of exercise durations used in the present study, the 2-parameter model is preferred because it provides a parsimonious description of the relationship between velocity and time to fatigue, and it produces parameters of known physiological significance, with excellent confidence.

Pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis in immunized mice

Paracoccidioidomycosis was induced in immunized (IM) and non-immunized (NI) mice. The histopathology, the number of fungi in the lungs, the cellular (footpad test - FPT and macrophage inhibition factor assay - MIF) and humoral (immunodiffusion test) immune response were investigated serially postinfection. In the IM mice, at days 1 and 3, there was intense and predominant macrophagic-lymphocytic alveolitis with loose granulomatous reaction; at day 30, inflammation was mild. In the NI group, up to day 3, the lesions were focal; later there was formation of extensive epithelioid granuloma. The number of fungi in IM mice were always smaller than those of NI group. Immunization alone induced positive FPT and MIF indices with low titer of antibody. After infection, there was a significant decrease of the FPT indices in the IM group, which we interpreted as desensitization due to trapping of sensitized lymphocytes in the lungs. In conclusion, (1) The lesional pattern of pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis in IM mice was similar to that of a hypersensitivity pneumonitis. This reaction was probably effective in reducing the extension of the infection and decrease the number of fungi. (2) In this model, pulmonary resistance against P. brasiliensis seems to be related to local and systemic delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction. © 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Estimativa do tempo de vida útil de represa de pequeno porte

The purpose of this work is to compare two methods for time estimation of useful life for a small and shallow reservoir, located in Pirassununga, São Paulo State, Brazil: 1) sedimentometry; and 2) bathymetry. The model indicated a useful lifetime around 50 years for the studied dam. The values are between 51 years for the initial years of 1998/1999, and 46 years for the final years of 2004/2005, with an oscillation between 1999/2000 of 27 years, and between 2000/2001 of 76 years. The results show that it is possible to estimate the useful lifetime for small dams through the sedimentometric method, by knowing the correction coefficient value (K'). The coefficient is calculated using time values of useful lifetime calculated by the sedimentometric and bathymetric methods simultaneously, during the span of one year.

Parâmetros genéticos de escore de temperamento em bovinos da raça Nelore

Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

A estrutura do nucleon na QCD e o modelo estatístico a Quarks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Solução híbrida da equação de advecção-dispersão em meios porosos

Este trabalho consiste na solução híbrida da Equação de Advecção-dispersão de solutos unidimensional em meios porosos homogêneos ou heterogêneos, para um único componente, com coeficientes de retardo, dispersão, velocidade média, decaimento e produção dependentes da distância percorrida pelo soluto. Serão estudados os casos de dispersão-advecção em que o retardamento, dispersão, velocidade do fluxo, decaimento e produção variem de forma linear enquanto a dispersividade assuma os modelos linear, parabólico ou exponencial. Para a solução da equação foi aplicada a Técnica da Transformada Integral Generalizada. Os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação demonstram boa concordância entre os problemas-exemplo e suas soluções numéricas ou analíticas contidas na literatura e apontam uma melhor adequação no uso de modelos parabólico no estudo da advecção-dispersão em curto intervalo de tempo, enquanto que o modelo linear converge mais rapidamente em tempos prolongados de simulação. A convergência da série mostrou-se ter dependência direta quanto ao comprimento do domínio, ao modelo de dispersão e da dispersividade adotada, convergindo com até 60 termos, podendo chegar a NT = 170, para os casos heterogêneos, utilizando o modelo de dispersão exponencial, respeitando o critério adotado de 10^-4.

Towards controlled synthesis and better understanding of blue shift of the CaS crystals

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)