The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.

Assessing the diurnal evolution of surface radiation balance over the western region of Tropical Atlantic Ocean using in situ measurements carried out during the FluTuA balance Project

In this work, the diurnal evolution of the radiation balance components over the tropical Atlantic Ocean is described and analysed. The analysis is based on measurements carried Out on board a Brazilian Navy ship during the observational campaign of the FluTuA Project (`Fluxos Turbulentos sobre o Atlantico`), from 15 to 23 May 2002. The observations indicated that the albedo responds its expected to atmospheric attenuation effects with a diurnal evolution similar to the Fresnel albedo. In general, the observed longwave radiation values agreed better with the estimated values obtained without longwave reflection. In agreement with the literature, the average surface emissivity was around 0.97. The net radiation, estimated from published equations for albedo, atmospheric transmissivity and surface emissivity, agreed with the observations, indicating that these parameters are representative of the radiometric properties of the air-sea interface in the region between Natal (6 degrees S, 35.2 degrees W) and the Sao Pedro and Sao Paulo Archipelago (1 degrees N, 29.3 degrees W). Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Neutrophil death induced by a triathlon competition in elite athletes

Introduction/Purpose: The effect of a triathlon competition on death of neutrophils from elite athletes was investigated. Methods: Blood was collected from 11 sedentary volunteers and 12 triathletes under rest and after a Half Ironman triathlon competition (2-km swimming, 80-km cycling, and 20-km running). Results: The triathlon competition increased DNA fragmentation, phosphatidylserine externalization, and reactive oxygen species production in neutrophils when compared to the results at rest. The proportion of neutrophils with mitochondrial transmembrane depolarization was increased in the triathletes at rest and after competition as compared with sedentary volunteers. Plasma levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances were increased in triathletes after competition. Expression of bcl-xL (antiapoptotic) was decreased and that of bax (proapoptotic) was increased, whereas intracellular neutral lipid content was lowered in neutrophils after the triathlon. A positive correlation was found between the proportion of neutrophils with DNA fragmentation and the plasma free fatty acid levels (r = 0.688, P < 0.05), which was elevated by threefold after competition. Plasma levels of oleic, linoleic, and stearic acids were increased in triathletes after the competition when compared with sedentary volunteers. The plasma concentration of these three fatty acids, measured after the triathlon competition, was toxic for 3-h cultured neutrophils obtained from sedentary volunteers. The maximal tolerable (nontoxic) concentration of the fatty acids by 3-h cultured neutrophils was 100 mu mol.L-1 for oleic and linoleic acids and 200 mu mol.L-1 for stearic acid. Conclusion: The triathlon competition induced neutrophil death possibly by apoptosis as indicated by DNA fragmentation and phosphatidylserine externalization. The increase in plasma levels of oleic, linoleic, and stearic acids induced by the competition may be involved in the neutrophil death observed possibly by increasing the production of reactive oxygen species and by decreasing the accumulation of intracellular neutral lipid.

Cordierite-bearing lavas from Jaguarao, southern Brazil: Petrological evidence for crustal melts during early rifting of Gondwana

The Jaguarao stratoid dacites (Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) are limited in areal extent, are comprised of about 3.2 km(3) of preserved erupted material, and outcrop only in areas of the region underlain by mylonitic and ultramylonitic rocks. They are S-type volcanic rocks containing cordierite, orthopyroxene, plagioclase, and ilmenite as liquidus phases, and partially melted granite, gneiss, and migmatite enclaves that are very similar to the Precambrian basement rocks. The Jaguarao lavas have distinct geochemical signatures and Sr-Nd isotopes with respect to other volcanic rocks of the region. Available geochronological data for Jaguarao dacites range between 157 +/- 5 Ma and 139.6 +/- 7.4 Ma. Considering the errors, the younger ages obtained for Jaguarao lavas overlap the 138-128 Ma age of rocks of the Serra Geral Group, and thus indicate that the dacites were erupted prior to the break-up of Gondwana in this region. Petrographic, mineralogical, and petrochemical data, as well as the tectonic context of the Jaguarao lavas, suggest that magma genesis was linked, at least in part, to friction melts. The dacitic magma was generated by partial melting reactions involving biotite breakdown in a dominantly quartz-feldspathic source terrane, leaving a granulite facies residue in subsurface. These melts were probably generated as a consequence of crustal thinning linked to simple shear extension just prior to Gondwana break-up and rifting of the southern Atlantic Ocean. (C) 2009 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

Wind farm construction impacts reindeer migration and movement corridors

Over the last decade, we have seen a massive increase in the construction of wind farms in northern Fennoscandia. Wind farms comprising hundreds of wind turbines are being built, with little knowledge of the possible cumulative adverse effects on the habitat use and migration of semi-domesticated free-ranging reindeer. We assessed how reindeer responded to wind farm construction in an already fragmented landscape, with specific reference to the effects on use of movement corridors and reindeer habitat selection. We used GPS-data from reindeer during calving and post-calving in the MalAyen reindeer herding community in Sweden. We analysed data from the pre-development years compared to the construction years of two relatively small wind farms. During construction of the wind farms, use of original migration routes and movement corridors within 2 km of development declined by 76 %. This decline in use corresponded to an increase in activity of the reindeer measured by increased step lengths within 0-5 km. The step length was highest nearest the development and declining with distance, as animals moved towards migration corridors and turned around or were observed in holding patterns while not crossing. During construction, reindeer avoided the wind farms at both regional and landscape scale of selection. The combined construction activities associated with even a few wind turbines combined with power lines and roads in or close to central movement corridors caused a reduction in the use of such corridors and grazing habitat and increased the fragmentation of the reindeer calving ranges.

Circulações atmosféricas clássicas e não-clássicas na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre/RS

O Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), versão 3b, foi utilizado para simular o escoamento na Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre (RMPA) para explicar a influência de circulações clássicas e não clássicas devido as proximidades do oceano e da Lagoa dos Patos, e da ilha de calor formada pelas cidades. O RAMS foi utilizado em um domínio tridimensional com duas grades sendo utilizadas, a grade mais grossa com resolução horizontal de 8 Km, e a grade mais fina com resolução horizontal de 2 Km. A inicialização do modelo é homogênea e parte do repouso, em uma situação de verão. Foram realizados 3 experimentos; o primeiro deles com apenas a grade mais grossa e com a parametrização da vegetação sendo grama curta em todo o domínio; o segundo utilizando as duas grades, sendo que a área coberta pela grade mais fina é parametrizada como deserto, nas duas grades; o terceiro diferencia-se do segundo pela adição de uma forçante térmica no primeiro nível da área coberta pela grade mais fina durante o período da noite (após o pôr do sol). Os resultados mostram que circulação de brisa lacustre/terrestre é responsável por uma forte tendência meridional no escoamento resultante sobre a RMPA, só sendo atenuada pela componente zonal da circulação de brisa marítima à partir do final da tarde. A confluência dessas duas circulações provoca uma tendência a elevação da camada de mistura. A presença da ilha de calor aumenta o movimento convectivo, com maior transporte vertical de calor sensível, e também retardou o avanço da frente de brisa marítima, embora durante a noite a sua influência não tenha sido muito significante.

Área de influência de agências bancárias

Este trabalho tem como objetivo investigar o fenômeno da dispersão de clientes em torno de uma agência bancária, identificando generalizações e peculiaridades deste fenômeno e verificando quais variáveis controláveis e ambientais influenciam a capacidade das agências bancárias em atrair clientes para desenvolver um modelo preditivo de determinação da área de influência primária. Para determinação desta área, foi utilizada a metodologia customer spotting, adotando-se o software mapinfo e a base cartográfica digitalizada da Grande São Paulo. Para cada uma das agências, foi selecionada do banco de dados da instituição uma amostra de 400 clientes ativos com seus endereços residenciais e verificadas as características ambientais no raio de 1.000 metros. Os testes de associação entre variáveis e a modelagem econométrica foram realizados por meio da análise de regressões múltiplas. A área de influência primária foi operacionalizada como sendo a extensão do raio que contém 50% dos clientes. As áreas de influência das agências bancárias mostram enorme diversidade entre si, variando de 1,1 a 12,2 km, sendo mais extensa se comparada com o comércio varejista. As variáveis mais associadas à área de influência são a densidade demográfica no entorno da agência (relação negativa), existência ou não de estacionamento na agência (relação positiva) e o nível de aglomeração bancária na região (relação positiva). As generalizações são limitadas para a cidade de São Paulo e apenas para clientes pessoas físicas ativos que não recebem seus salários pelo banco. Conhecer a área de influência das agências bancárias possibilita verificar áreas em que ocorrem sobreposição, baixa ou ausência de atuação, subsidiando estudos para instalação de novas agências ou remanejamento das já existentes e estabelecer estratégias específicas para as agências de acordo com a procedência de seus clientes. Este trabalho pioneiro preenche uma importante lacuna nos estudos de área de influência para o mercado bancário que vem crescendo nos últimos anos.

Produtividade de alface cv Lucy Brown influenciada por períodos de convivência com plantas infestantes e potencial alelopático da tiririca

This work was divided in two experiments, the first one to evaluate the lettuce productivity (cv Lucy Brown - American group) influenced by increasing and decreasing periods of coexisting with harmful plants, and a second moment, aiming at to evaluate the allelopathic potential of nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus L.) on the initial lettuce development.The experimental treatments constituted of six increasing and decreasing periods of coexisting with harmful plants, or control of it in the culture, considered from the plantation of the lettuce; being separate in two groups: Weeds and Clean weeds.In the second moment of the experiment, purple nutsedge aerial parts had been collected in the area of experiment 1, that drying had been after triturated and immersed in methylic alcohol P. A in ratios 10, 5,0 and 2.5% (w/ v) and later impregnated in germination paper, where had been placed lettuce seeds.The analyses of results, one concludes that the presence of C. rotundus plants can intervene with the germination, growth and development of the plants of lettuce cv Lucy Brown, and that initial periods of coexisting between the culture and the harmful are associate to an induction of the foliar area development, and can not express the reduction of productivity in the end of the cycle. Drawn out periods of competition induce the reduction of the lettuce foliar area, and then they will intervene with the yield productivity.

Colheita mecanizada e perdas quantitativas de sementes de crotalária

In mechanized harvesting of seeds can occur losses, which reduce productivity, decrease the profitability and can do serious damage to the producer. The objective of this work was to evaluate the quantitative seed losses of Crotalaria juncea depending on the harvester speed and the rotation of the threshing cylinder. The experiment was conducted in the area of Education, Research and Production Unesp/Jaboticabal, using a entirely casualized design on factorial away 2x3, with two-speed displacement of the machine (1.8 and 3.2 km h(-1)) and three rotations of threshing cylinder (750, 800 and 850 rpm), with 4 repetitions. It was concluded that the measures relating to the development of the plants showed homogeneous behavior, indicating little dispersion of the data. It was observed that the rate of displacement of the harvester and rotation of the drum track not affected the losses in the plataform of cutting. The largest losses of crotalaria seeds occurred on the plataform of cutting the harvester machine, in the form of pods not harvested. It was observed that the total losses in the harvest of crotalaria seed were high, and the losses in pods on the soil, responsible for almost all the losses encountered.

Avaliação das equações de predição das exigências de proteína para matrizes pesadas na fase de crescimento

Objetivou-se avaliar as equações para predição das exigências protéicas de matrizes pesadas em crescimento, desenvolvidas em estudos anteriores na Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias da UNESP, Jaboticabal, tendo como padrão de comparação as recomendações estabelecidas pelo manual de criação da linhagem. Foram utilizadas 288 matrizes pesadas da linhagem Hubbard Hy-Yield, com cinco semanas de idade, em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com dois tratamentos e seis repetições, sendo 24 aves por unidade experimental até 14 semanas e, de 15 a 20 semanas de idade, 20 aves por unidade experimental. Um tratamento foi representado pelas recomendações protéicas para a linhagem (testemunha) e o outro pelas seguintes equações de predição das exigências de proteína: de 5 a 8 semanas PB (g/ave/dia) = 2,02.P0,75+ 0,350.G, 9 a 14 semanas - PB = 2,02.P0,75 + 0,406.G e de 15 a 20 semanas PB = 2,02.P0,75 + 0,463.G, em que P é o peso corporal (kg) e G, o ganho de peso diário (g). Os resultados indicaram que as equações de predição para proteína, apesar de não comprometerem o peso ou a uniformidade corporal em relação ao tratamento testemunha, determinaram menor porcentagem de peito e maior de gordura abdominal e maior teor de gordura na carcaça, sendo atribuído à menor ingestão de proteína proporcionada pelas equações de predição e, conseqüentemente, deficiência em relação a alguns aminoácidos que não foram suplementados.

Modelo matemático para otimização dos custos de um sistema híbrido eólico-solar : aplicação no bombeamento de petróleo

This work purposes the application of a methodology to optimize the implantation cost of an wind-solar hybrid system for oil pumping. The developed model is estimated the implantation cost of system through Multiple Linear Regression technique, on the basis of the previous knowledge of variables: necessary capacity of storage, total daily energy demand, wind power, module power and module number. These variables are gotten by means of sizing. The considered model not only can be applied to the oil pumping, but also for any other purposes of electric energy generation for conversion of solar, wind or solar-wind energy, that demand short powers. Parametric statistical T-student tests had been used to detect the significant difference in the average of total cost to being considered the diameter of the wind, F by Snedecor in the variance analysis to test if the coefficients of the considered model are significantly different of zero and test not-parametric statistical by Friedman, toverify if there is difference in the system cost, by being considered the photovoltaic module powers. In decision of hypothesis tests was considered a 5%-significant level. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 3 HP. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 5 HP only to wind speed of 4m/s and 6 m/s in wind of 3 m, 4m and 5 m of diameter. There was not significant difference in costs to diameters of winds of 3 m and 4m. The mathematical model and the computational program may be used to others applications which require electrical between 2.250 W and 3.750 W. A computational program was developed to assist the study of several configurations that optimizes the implantation cost of an wind-solar system through considered mathematical model

Growth of the Symbiotic Fungus of the Grass-cutting Ant Atta capiguara (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Effect of Grass Extracts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação tribológica dos polímeros NBR, PTFE e PTFE gravitado em contato com aço AISI 52100

Low cost seals are made of NBR, Nitrile Butadiene Rubber, a family of unsaturated copolymers that is higher resistant to oils the more content of nitrile have in its composition, although lower its flexibility. In Petroleum Engineering, NBR seal wear can cause fluid leakage and environmental damages, promoting an increasing demand for academic knowledge about polymeric materials candidate to seals submitted to sliding contacts to metal surfaces. This investigation aimed to evaluate tribological responses of a commercial NBR, hardness 73 ± 5 Sh A, polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), hardness 60 ± 4 HRE and PTFE with graphite, 68 ± 6 HRE. The testings were performed on a sliding tribometer conceived to explore the tribological performance of stationary polymer plane coupons submitted to rotational cylinder contact surface of steel AISI 52100, 20 ± 1 HRC Hardness, under dry and lubricated (oil SAE 15W40) conditions. After screening testings, the normal load, relative velocity and sliding distance were 3.15 N, 0.8 m/s and 3.2 km, respectively. The temperatures were collected over distances of 3.0±0.5 mm and 750±50 mm far from the contact to evaluate the heating in this referential zone due to contact sliding friction by two thermocouples K type. The polymers were characterized through Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA), Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA). The wear mechanisms of the polymer surfaces were analyzed by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and EDS (Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy). NBR referred to the higher values of heating, suggesting higher sliding friction. PTFE and PTFE with graphite showed lower heating, attributed to the delamination mechanism

Desenvolvimento de sistema magnético polimérico contendo antimicrobianos para tratamento de infecções por Helicobacter pylori

Helicobacter pylori is the main cause of gastritis, gastroduodenal ulcer disease and gastric cancer. The most recommended treatment for eradication of this bacteria often leads to side effects and patient poor compliance, which induce treatment failure. Magnetic drug targeting is a very efficient method that overcomes these drawbacks through association of the drug with a magnetic compound. Such approach may allow such systems to be placed slowed down to a specific target area by an external magnetic field. This work reports a study of the synthesis and characterization of polymeric magnetic particles loaded with the currently used antimicrobial agents for the treatment of Helicobacter pylori infections, aiming the production of magnetic drug delivery system by oral route. Optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, x-ray powder diffraction, nitrogen adsorption/desorption isotherms and vibrating sample magnetometry revealed that the magnetite particles, produced by the co-precipitation method, consisted of a large number of aggregated nanometer-size crystallites (about 6 nm), creating superparamagnetic micrometer with high magnetic susceptibility particles with an average diameter of 6.8 ± 0.2 μm. Also, the polymeric magnetic particles produced by spray drying had a core-shell structure based on magnetite microparticles, amoxicillin and clarithromycin and coated with Eudragit® S100. The system presented an average diameter of 14.2 ± 0.2 μm. The amount of magnetite present in the system may be tailored by suitably controlling the suspension used to feed the spray dryer. In the present work it was 2.9% (w/w). The magnetic system produced may prove to be very promising for eradication of Helicobacter pylori infections