The advantages of theft over toil: The design inference and arguing from ignorance

Intelligent design theorist William Dembski has proposed an explanatory filter for distinguishing between events due to chance, lawful regularity or design. We show that if Dembski's filter were adopted as a scientific heuristic, some classical developments in science would not be rational, and that Dembski's assertion that the filter reliably identifies rarefied design requires ignoring the state of background knowledge. If background information changes even slightly, the filter's conclusion will vary wildly. Dembski fails to overcome Hume's objections to arguments from design.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sertraline vs. ELectrical Current Therapy for Treating Depression Clinical Trial - SELECT TDCS: Design, rationale and objectives

Background: Despite significant advancements in psychopharmacology, treating major depressive disorder (MDD) is still a challenge considering the efficacy, tolerability, safety, and economical costs of most antidepressant drugs. One approach that has been increasingly investigated is modulation of cortical activity with tools of non-invasive brain stimulation - such as transcranial magnetic stimulation and transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). Due to its profile, tDCS seems to be a safe and affordable approach. Methods and design: The SELECT TDCS trial aims to compare sertraline vs. tDCS in a double-blinded, randomized, factorial trial enrolling 120 participants to be allocated to four groups to receive sertraline + tDCS, sertraline, tDCS or placebo. Eligibility criteria are moderate-to-severe unipolar depression (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale >17) not currently on sertraline treatment. Treatment will last 6 weeks and the primary outcome is depression change in the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Score (MADRS). Potential biological markers that mediate response, such as BDNF serum levels, Val66Met BDNF polymorphism, and heart rate variability will also be examined. A neuropsychological battery with a focus on executive functioning will be administered. Discussion: With this design we will be able to investigate whether tDCS is more effective than placebo in a sample of patients free of antidepressants and in addition, we will be able to secondarily compare the effect sizes of sertraline vs. tDCS and also the comparison between tDCS and combination of tDCS and sertraline. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.