Volt-e likviditási válság? Volatilitás és likviditás kapcsolatának vizsgálata (Was there a liquidity crisis? Analysis the relationship between volatility and liquidity)

Széleskörűen alátámasztott, empirikus tény, hogy önmagában a nagyobb volatilitás csökkenti a piac likviditását, vagyis változékonyabb piacokon várhatóan nagyobb lesz egy-egy tranzakció áreltérítő hatása. Kutatásomban azt a kérdést vizsgáltam, hogy a Budapesti Értéktőzsdén az OTP-részvény piacán a 2007/2008-as válságban tapasztalható, átmeneti likviditáscsökkenés betudható volt-e egyszerűen a megnövekedett volatilitásnak, vagy ezen túl abban más tényezők (pl. a szereplők körének és viselkedésének drasztikus megváltozása, általános forráscsökkenés stb.) is szerepet játszhattak-e. A volatilitást a loghozamok szórásával, illetve a tényleges ársávval, míg az illikviditást a Budapesti Likviditási Mértékkel (BLM) reprezentáltam. Egyrészt azt állapítottam meg, hogy az OTP esetében a tényleges ársáv szorosabban korrelál a BLM-mel, mint a szórás. Másrészt az is egyértelmű, hogy a válság előtti kapcsolat a volatilitás és a likviditás között a válságban és azután már jelentősen megváltozott. Válságban az illikviditás jóval nagyobb volt, mint amit a volatilitás növekedése alapján vártunk, a válság lecsengése után azonban megfordult ez a reláció. _________ It is a widely supported empirical fact, that the greater volatility in itself decreases the liquidity of the market, namely more volatile a market is, the higher a transaction’s price impact will be. I have examined in my paper the question, whether the decrease of liquidity during the crisis of 2007/2008 in case of the OTP stock – traded on the Budapest Stock Exchange – was the consequence of the increased volatility, or other factors had an effect on the illiquidity as well (e.g.: the drastic change of market participants’ behaviour; reduction of fi nancing sources; etc.). I have represented volatility with the standard deviation of the logreturns, and with the true range, while the illiquidity with the Budapest Liquidity Measure (BLM). On one hand I have identifi ed, that in case of the OTP, the true range has a stronger relationship with the BLM than the standard deviation has. On the other hand it was clear, that the relationship between volatility and liquidity has changed notably during and after the crisis. During crisis the illiquidity was greater than what I have estimated based on the volatility increase, but after the crisis this relation has changed.

The effect of young adult literature on adolescents' rape myth acceptance

This quasi-experimental study (N = 139) measured the effect of a reader response based instructional unit of the novel Speak on adolescents' rape myth acceptance. Participants were eighth grade language arts students at a Title I middle school in a major metropolitan school district. Seven classes were randomly assigned to treatment ( n = 4) or control (n = 3) condition. Two teachers participated in the study and both taught both treatment and control classes. The study lasted a period of five weeks. Participants were pretested using the Rape Myth Acceptance Scale (Burt, 1980) and a researcher created scale, the Adolescent Date Rape Scale (ADRMS). Analysis of pretests showed the ADRMS to be a reliable and valid measure of rape myth acceptance in adolescents. Factor analysis revealed it to have two major components: "She Wanted It" and "She Lied." Pretests supported previous studies which found girls to have significantly lower initial levels of rape myth acceptance than boys (p < .001). A 2 (group) x 2 (instructor) x 2 (sex) ANCOVA using ADRMS pretest as a covariate and ADRMS posttest as a dependent variable found that treatment was effective in reducing rape myth acceptance (p < .001, η2 = .15). Boys with high rape myth acceptance as demonstrated by pretest scores of 1 standard deviation above the mean on ADRMS did not have a backlash to treatment. Extended analysis revealed that participants had significantly lower scores posttest on Factor 1, "She Wanted It" (p < .001, η2 = .27), while scores on Factor 2, "She Lied" were not significantly lower (p = .07). This may be because the content of the novel primarily deals with issues questioning whether the main characters assault was a rape rather than a false accusation. Attrition rates were low (N = 15) and attrition analysis showed that drop outs did not significantly alter the treatment or control groups. Implications for reader response instruction of young adult literature, for research on rape myth acceptance in secondary schools, and for statistical analysis of effect size using pretests as filters are discussed.

Everglades Online Thesaurus: A Standard Vocabulary for the South Florida Ecosystem

The Everglades Online Thesaurus is a structured vocabulary of concepts and terms relating to the south Florida environment. Designed as an information management tool for both researchers and metadata creators, the Thesaurus is intended to improve information retrieval across the many disparate information systems, databases, and web sites that provide Everglades-related information. The vocabulary provided by the Everglades Online Thesaurus expresses each relevant concept using a single ‘preferred term’, whereas in natural language many terms may exist to express that same concept. In this way, the Thesaurus offers the possibility of standardizing the terminology used to describe Everglades-related information — an important factor in predictable and successful resource discovery.

Isotopic data of atmospheric methane from EDML and Vostok ice cores over a full glacial cycle

The response of natural CH4 sources to climate changes will be an important factor to consider as concentrations of this potent greenhouse gas continue to increase. Polar ice cores provide the means to assess this sensitivity in the past and have shown a close connection between CH4 levels and northern hemisphere temperature variability over the last glacial cycle. However, the contribution of the various CH4 sources and sinks to these changes is still a matter of debate. Contemporaneous stable CH4 isotope records in ice cores provide additional boundary conditions for assessing changes in the CH4 sources and sinks. Here we present new ice core CH4 isotope data covering the last 160,000 years, showing a clear decoupling between CH4 loading and carbon isotopic variations over most of the record. We suggest that d13CH4 variations were not dominated by a change in the source mix but rather by climate- and CO2-related ecosystem control on the isotopic composition of the methane precursor material, especially in seasonally inundated wetlands in the tropics. In contrast, relatively stable d13CH4 intervals occurred during large CH4 loading changes concurrently with past climate changes implying that most CH4 sources (most notably tropical wetlands) responded simultaneously.

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

On the group delay statistics of few-mode fibres with intermediate linear mode coupling

We report an investigation on the statistics of group delay for few-mode fibres operating in the weak and strong linear coupling regimes as well as in the intermediate coupling regime. A single expression linking the standard deviation of the group delay spread to the fibre linear mode coupling is validated for any coupling regime, considering up to six linearly polarized guided modes. Furthermore, the study of the probability density function of the group delays allowed deriving and validating an analytical estimation for the maximum group delay spread as a function of linear mode coupling.

(Table 1) Heat flow measurements in the Central Pacific during Cruise 48 of R/V Vityaz

Eight measurements of heat flow in the Pacific floor were made during Cruise 48 of R/V Vityaz; four on the Manihiki Plateau, three - on the Marcus-Necker Rise, and one - in the Hawaiian Trough. Higher than average heat flows, up to 3.2 HFU, were recorded on submarine uplifts.

Geochemical characterization and the voltammetric investigation of hydrothermal Iron speciation of samples gained during SONNE cruise SO229

Hydrothermal vent fluids are highly enriched in iron (Fe) compared to ambient seawater, and organic ligands may play a role in facilitating the transport of some hydrothermal Fe into the open ocean. This is important since Fe is a limiting micronutrient for primary production in large parts of the world's surface ocean. We have investigated the concentration and speciation of Fe in several vent fluid and plume samples from the Nifonea vent field, Coriolis Troughs, New Hebrides Island Arc, South Pacific Ocean using competitive ligand exchange-adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry (CLE-AdCSV) with salicylaldoxime (SA) as the artificial ligand. Our results for total dissolved Fe (dFe) in the buoyant hydrothermal plume samples showed concentrations up to 3.86 µM dFe with only a small fraction between 1.1 and 11.8% being chemically labile. Iron binding ligand concentrations ([L]) were found in µM level with strong conditional stability constants up to logKFeL,Fe3+ of 22.9. Within the non-buoyant hydrothermal plume above the Nifonea vent field, up to 84.7% of the available Fe is chemically labile and [L] concentrations up to 97 nM were measured. [L] was consistently in excess of Felab, indicating that all available Fe is being complexed, which in combination with high Felab values in the non-buoyant plume, signifies that a high fraction of hydrothermal dFe is potentially being transported away from the plume into the surrounding waters, contributing to the global oceanic Fe budget.

Qualidade física e matéria orgânica do solo em sistema de integração lavoura - pecuária submetido a doses de nitrogênio

The animal trampling favors the soil compaction process in sheep raising and crop production integrated systems. This compression has negative effects, hindering the development of roots, the availability of nutrients, water and aeration, causing production losses, making it essential for the assessment of soil physical attributes for monitoring soil quality. Soil organic matter can be used to assess the quality of the soil, due to its relationship with the chemical, physical and biological soil properties. Conservation management system with tillage, along with systems integration between crops and livestock are being used to maintain and even increase the levels of soil organic matter. For that, a field experiment was carried out over a Oxisol clayey Alic in Guarapuava, PR, from de 2006 one. experiment sheep raising and crop production integrated systems The climate classified as Cfb .. The study was to evaluate the soil physical properties and quantify the stock of soil organic carbon and its compartmentalization in system integration crop - livestock with sheep under four nitrogen rates (0, 75, 150 and 225 kg ha-1) in the winter pasture, formed by the consortium oat (Avena strigosa) and ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) and the effect of grazing (with and without). The soil samples blades density evaluations, total porosity, macro and micro, aggregation and carbon stocks were held in two phases: Phase livestock (after removal of the animals of the area) and phase crop (after maize cultivation). The collection of soil samples were carried out in layers of 0-0.5, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20 and m. Data were subjected to analysis of variance and the hypotheses tested by the F test (p <0.05). For the quantitative effect data regression and the qualitative effect used the test medium. In non-significant regressions used the average and standard deviation treatments. The animal trampling caused an increase in bulk density in the 0.10-0.20 m layer. The dose of 225 kg N ha-1 in winter pasture increased total soil porosity at 8% compared to dose 0 kg N ha-1 in the crop stage. The grazing had no effect on soil macroporosity. GMD of aggregates in the phase after grazing the surface layer was damaged by grazing. Nitrogen rates used in the winter pasture and grazing not influence the total organic carbon stocks. The TOC is not influenced by nitrogen fertilization on grassland. The grazing increases the stock of POC in the 0.10-0.20 m layer livestock phase and cause the stock of POC in the 0-0.5 m layer in the crop stage. The MAC is not influenced by N rates applied in the pasture or by grazing.

Nd-Sr isotopes, diatom and biogenic opal content of Pliocene sediments from IODP Site 318-U1361

Warm intervals within the Pliocene epoch (5.33-2.58 million years ago) were characterized by global temperatures comparable to those predicted for the end of this century (Haywood and Valdes, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00685-X) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to today (Seki et al., 2010, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2010.01.037; Bartoli et al., 2011, doi:10.1029/2010PA002055; Pagani et al., 2010, doi:10.1038/ngeo724). Estimates for global sea level highstands during these times (Miller et al., 2012, doi:10.1130/G32869.1) imply possible retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, but ice-proximal evidence from the Antarctic margin is scarce. Here we present new data from Pliocene marine sediments recovered offshore of Adélie Land, East Antarctica, that reveal dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet in the vicinity of the low-lying Wilkes Subglacial Basin during times of past climatic warmth. Sedimentary sequences deposited between 5.3 and 3.3 million years ago indicate increases in Southern Ocean surface water productivity, associated with elevated circum-Antarctic temperatures. The geochemical provenance of detrital material deposited during these warm intervals suggests active erosion of continental bedrock from within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, an area today buried beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet. We interpret this erosion to be associated with retreat of the ice sheet margin several hundreds of kilometres inland and conclude that the East Antarctic ice sheet was sensitive to climatic warmth during the Pliocene.

The average mixing matrix signature

Laplacian-based descriptors, such as the Heat Kernel Signature and the Wave Kernel Signature, allow one to embed the vertices of a graph onto a vectorial space, and have been successfully used to find the optimal matching between a pair of input graphs. While the HKS uses a heat di↵usion process to probe the local structure of a graph, the WKS attempts to do the same through wave propagation. In this paper, we propose an alternative structural descriptor that is based on continuoustime quantum walks. More specifically, we characterise the structure of a graph using its average mixing matrix. The average mixing matrix is a doubly-stochastic matrix that encodes the time-averaged behaviour of a continuous-time quantum walk on the graph. We propose to use the rows of the average mixing matrix for increasing stopping times to develop a novel signature, the Average Mixing Matrix Signature (AMMS). We perform an extensive range of experiments and we show that the proposed signature is robust under structural perturbations of the original graphs and it outperforms both the HKS and WKS when used as a node descriptor in a graph matching task.

Caracterización de la función cognitiva de niños con síndrome de down de 5 a 12 años en la ciudad de Bogotá

Los niños que padecen trisomía 21 poseen una serie de características físicas, neurológicas y neuropsicológicas específicas, las cuales han sido investigadas a profundidad en diferentes países, de lo cual se han desarrollado protocolos de evaluación para estos niños acorde a su nacionalidad (García, 2010). A pesar de que Colombia es uno de los países en los cuales el síndrome de Down se presenta con mayor frecuencia, hasta la fecha, no se encuentran estudios que enfaticen en las habilidades neuropsicológicas de esta población específica, por lo cual no se han desarrollado protocolos de evaluación adecuados para los niños con síndrome este síndrome. Esta investigación se llevó acabo con una población de 88 niños a los cuales se les aplicó el inventario de desarrollo BATTELLE, y se identificó que los niños con síndrome Down de 5 a 12 años obtienen un puntaje que se encuentra en 4 desviaciones estándar por debajo de la media típica. Lo anterior demuestra una característica específica de esta población en cuanto a patrones de desarrollo en las cuales, se evidencia dificultad más importante en las área cognición y de la comunicación expresiva. Con respecto a los intervalos de edad se identificó que a lo largo de estos el desempeño en las áreas evaluadas decrece. esto puede estar relacionado con la mayor complejidad de los hitos del desarrollo para una edad esperada. Debido a que los hitos del desarrollo esperados varían a lo largo de los periodos del ciclo vital del ser humano, estos tienden a aumentar su complejidad en etapas del desarrollo más avanzados; como estos niños poseen una serie de dificultades en las funciones ejecutivas y cognición, no lograrán alcanzar dichos hitos del desarrollo.

Phenyl-ring disorder in the two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structure of the 1:1 proton-transfer salt of the diazo-dye precursor 4-(phenyldiazenyl)aniline (aniline yellow) with L-tartaric acid

The structure of the 1:1 proton-transfer compound from the reaction of L-tartaric acid with the azo-dye precursor aniline yellow [4-(phenylazo)aniline], 4-(phenyldiazenyl)anilinium hydrogen 2R,3R-tartrate C12H12N3+ . C4H6O6- has been determined at 200 K. The asymmetric unit of the compound contains two independent phenylazoanilinium cations and two hydrogen L-tartrate anions. The structure is unusual in that all four phenyl rings of both cations have identical 50% rotational disorder. The two hydrogen L-tartrate anions form independent but similar chains through head-to-tail carboxylic O--H...O~carboxyl~ hydrogen bonds [graph set C7] which are then extended into a two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded sheet structure through hydroxyl O--H...O hydrogen-bonding links. The anilinium groups of the phenyldiazenyl cations are incorporated into the sheets and also provide internal hydrogen-bonding extensions while their aromatic tails layer in the structure without significant interaction except for weak \p--\p interactions [minimum ring centroid separation, 3.844(3) \%A]. The hydrogen L-tartrate residues of both anions have the common short intramolecular hydroxyl O--H...O~carboxyl~ hydogen bonds. This work has provided a solution to the unusual disorder problem inherent in the structure of this salt as well as giving another example of the utility of the hydrogen tartrate in the generation of sheet substructures in molecular assembly processes.

Sphingosine-1-phosphate mediates proliferation maintaining the multipotency of human adult bone marrow and adipose tissue-derived stem cells

High renewal and maintenance of multipotency of human adult stem cells (hSCs), are a prerequisite for experimental analysis as well as for potential clinical usages. The most widely used strategy for hSC culture and proliferation is using serum. However, serum is poorly defined and has a considerable degree of inter-batch variation, which makes it difficult for large-scale mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) expansion in homogeneous culture conditions. Moreover, it is often observed that cells grown in serum-containing media spontaneously differentiate into unknown and/or undesired phenotypes. Another way of maintaining hSC development is using cytokines and/or tissue-specific growth factors; this is a very expensive approach and can lead to early unwanted differentiation. In order to circumvent these issues, we investigated the role of sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), in the growth and multipotency maintenance of human bone marrow and adipose tissue-derived MSCs. We show that S1P induces growth, and in combination with reduced serum, or with the growth factors FGF and platelet-derived growth factor-AB, S1P has an enhancing effect on growth. We also show that the MSCs cultured in S1P-supplemented media are able to maintain their differentiation potential for at least as long as that for cells grown in the usual serum-containing media. This is shown by the ability of cells grown in S1P-containing media to be able to undergo osteogenic as well as adipogenic differentiation. This is of interest, since S1P is a relatively inexpensive natural product, which can be obtained in homogeneous high-purity batches: this will minimize costs and potentially reduce the unwanted side effects observed with serum. Taken together, S1P is able to induce proliferation while maintaining the multipotency of different human stem cells, suggesting a potential for S1P in developing serum-free or serum-reduced defined medium for adult stem cell cultures.