Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Updating the geographical distribution and frequency of Aedes albopictus in Brazil with remarks regarding its range in the Americas

The geographical distribution of Aedes albopictus in Brazil was updated according to the data recorded across the country over the last eight years. Countrywide house indexes (HI) for Ae. albopictus in urban and suburban areas were described for the first time using a sample of Brazilian municipalities. This mosquito is currently present in at least 59% of the Brazilian municipalities and in 24 of the 27 federal units (i.e., 26 states and the Federal District). In 34 Brazilian municipalities, the HI values for Ae. albopictus were higher than those recorded for Ae. aegypti, reaching figures as high as HI = 7.72 in the Southeast Region. Remarks regarding the current range of this mosquito species in the Americas are also presented. Nineteen American countries are currently infested and few mainland American countries have not confirmed the occurrence of Ae. albopictus. The large distribution and high frequency of Ae. albopictus in the Americas may become a critical factor in the spread of arboviruses like chikungunya in the new world.

Ecological Footprint Inequality across countries: the role of environment intensity, income and interaction effects

Recently, White (2007) analysed the international inequalities in Ecological Footprints per capita (EF hereafter) based on a two-factor decomposition of an index from the Atkinson family (Atkinson (1970)). Specifically, this paper evaluated the separate role of environment intensity (EF/GDP) and average income as explanatory factors for these global inequalities. However, in addition to other comments on their appeal, this decomposition suffers from the serious limitation of the omission of the role exerted by probable factorial correlation (York et al. (2005)). This paper proposes, by way of an alternative, a decomposition of a conceptually similar index like Theil’s (Theil, 1967) which, in effect, permits clear decomposition in terms of the role of both factors plus an inter-factor correlation, in line with Duro and Padilla (2006). This decomposition might, in turn, be extended to group inequality components (Shorrocks, 1980), an analysis that cannot be conducted in the case of the Atkinson indices. The proposed methodology is implemented empirically with the aim of analysing the international inequalities in EF per capita for the 1980-2007 period and, amongst other results, we find that, indeed, the interactive component explains, to a significant extent, the apparent pattern of stability observed in overall international inequalities. Key words: ecological footprint; international environmental distribution; inequality decomposition

Distribution of free and conjugated cannabinoids in human bile samples.

The metabolism of Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is relatively complex, and over 80 metabolites have been identified. However, much less is known about the formation and fate of cannabinoid conjugates. Bile excretion is known to be an important route for the elimination of phase II metabolites. A liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry LC-MS/MS procedure for measuring cannabinoids in oral fluid was adapted, validated and applied to 10 bile samples. THC, 11-hydroxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC), 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH), cannabinol (CBN), cannabidiol (CBD), Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THC-A), 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol glucuronide (THCCOOH-gluc) and Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol glucuronide (THC-gluc) were determined following solid-phase extraction and LC-MS/MS. High concentrations of THCCOOH-gluc were found in bile samples (range: 139-21,275 ng/mL). Relatively high levels of THCCOOH (7.7-1548 ng/mL) and THC-gluc (38-1366 ng/mL) were also measured. THC-A, the plant precursor of THC, was the only cannabinoid that was not detected. These results show that biliary excretion is an important route of elimination for cannabinoids conjugates and that their enterohepatic recirculation is a significant factor to consider when analyzing blood elimination profiles of cannabinoids. Furthermore, we suggest that the bile is the matrix of choice for the screening of phase II cannabinoid metabolites.

Airline Consolidation and the Distribution of Traffic between Primary and Secondary Hubs

Several airline consolidation events have recently been completed both in Europe and in the United States. The model we develop considers two airlines operating hub-and-spoke networks, using different hubs to connect the same spoke airports. We assume the airlines to be vertically differentiated, which allows us to distinguish between primary and secondary hubs. We conclude that this differentiation in air services becomes more accentuated after consolidation, with an increased number of flights being channeled through the primary hub. However, congestion can act as a brake on the concentration of flight frequency in the primary hub following consolidation. Our empirical application involves an analysis of Delta s network following its merger with Northwest. We find evidence consistent with an increase in the importance of Delta s primary hubs at the expense of its secondary airports. We also find some evidence suggesting that the carrier chooses to divert traffic away from those hub airports that were more prone to delays prior to the merger, in particular New York s JFK airport. Keywords: primary hub; secondary hub; airport congestion; airline consolidation; airline networks JEL Classi fication Numbers: D43; L13; L40; L93; R4

Genome organization and gene expression shape the transposable element distribution in the Drosophila melanogaster euchromatin.

The distribution of transposable elements (TEs) in a genome reflects a balance between insertion rate and selection against new insertions. Understanding the distribution of TEs therefore provides insights into the forces shaping the organization of genomes. Past research has shown that TEs tend to accumulate in genomic regions with low gene density and low recombination rate. However, little is known about the factors modulating insertion rates across the genome and their evolutionary significance. One candidate factor is gene expression, which has been suggested to increase local insertion rate by rendering DNA more accessible. We test this hypothesis by comparing the TE density around germline- and soma-expressed genes in the euchromatin of Drosophila melanogaster. Because only insertions that occur in the germline are transmitted to the next generation, we predicted a higher density of TEs around germline-expressed genes than soma-expressed genes. We show that the rate of TE insertions is greater near germline- than soma-expressed genes. However, this effect is partly offset by stronger selection for genome compactness (against excess noncoding DNA) on germline-expressed genes. We also demonstrate that the local genome organization in clusters of coexpressed genes plays a fundamental role in the genomic distribution of TEs. Our analysis shows that-in addition to recombination rate-the distribution of TEs is shaped by the interaction of gene expression and genome organization. The important role of selection for compactness sheds a new light on the role of TEs in genome evolution. Instead of making genomes grow passively, TEs are controlled by the forces shaping genome compactness, most likely linked to the efficiency of gene expression or its complexity and possibly their interaction with mechanisms of TE silencing.

Cellular distribution of glucose and monocarboxylate transporters in human brain white matter and multiple sclerosis lesions.

To ensure efficient energy supply to the high demanding brain, nutrients are transported into brain cells via specific glucose (GLUT) and monocarboxylate transporters (MCT). Mitochondrial dysfunction and altered glucose metabolism are thought to play an important role in the progression of neurodegenerative diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS). Here, we investigated the cellular localization of key GLUT and MCT proteins in human brain tissue of non-neurological controls and MS patients. We show that in control brain tissue GLUT and MCT proteins were abundantly expressed in a variety of central nervous system cells, particularly in microglia and endothelial cells. In active MS lesions, GLUTs and MCTs were highly expressed in infiltrating leukocytes and reactive astrocytes. Astrocytes manifest increased MCT1 staining and maintain GLUT expression in inactive lesions, whereas demyelinated axons exhibit significantly reduced GLUT3 and MCT2 immunoreactivity in inactive lesions. Finally, we demonstrated that the co-transcription factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma co-activator 1-alpha (PGC-1α), an important protein involved in energy metabolism, is highly expressed in reactive astrocytes in active MS lesions. Overexpression of PGC-1α in astrocyte-like cells resulted in increased production of several GLUT and MCT proteins. In conclusion, we provide for the first time a comprehensive overview of key nutrient transporters in white matter brain samples. Moreover, our data demonstrate an altered expression of these nutrient transporters in MS brain tissue, including a marked reduction of axonal GLUT3 and MCT2 expression in chronic lesions, which may impede efficient nutrient supply to the hypoxic demyelinated axons thereby contributing to the ongoing neurodegeneration in MS. GLIA 2014;62:1125-1141.

Seeking theta's desperately: Estimating the distribution of consumers under increasing block rates

This paper shows that the distribution of observed consumption is not a good proxy for the distribution of heterogeneous consumers when the current tariff is an increasing block tariff. We use a two step method to recover the "true" distribution of consumers. First, we estimate the demand function induced by the current tariff. Second, using the demand system, we specify the distribution of consumers as a function of observed consumption to recover the true distribution. Finally, we design a new two-part tariff which allows us to evaluate the equity of the existence of an increasing block tariff.

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate a dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for humancapital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.

Income maintenance programs and multidimensional screening

This paper examines properties of optimal poverty assistance programs under different informational environments using an income maintenanceframework. To that end, we make both the income generating ability andthe disutility of labor of individuals unobservable, and compare theresulting benefit schedules with those of programs found in the UnitedStates since Welfare Reform (1996). We find that optimal programs closelyresemble a Negative Income Tax with a Benefit Reduction rate that dependson the distribution of population characteristics. A policy of workfare(unpaid public sector work) is inefficient when disutility of labor isunobservable, but minimum work requirements (for paid work) may be usedin that same environment. The distortions to work incentives and thepresence of minimum work requirements depend on the observability andrelative importance of the population's characteristics.

Increasing returns, imperfect competition and factor prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfectcompetition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affectincome distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factoror the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Effects of differential taxation on factor accumulation and growth

In this paper we try to analyze the role of fiscal policy in fostering a higher participation of the different production factors in the human capital production sector in the long-run. Introducing a tax on physical capital and differentiating both a tax on raw labor wage and a tax on skills or human capital we also attempt to present a way to influence inequality as measured by the skill premium, thus trying to relate the increase in human capital with the decrease in income inequality. We will do that in the context of a non-scale growth model.The model here is capable to alter the shares of private factors devoted to each of the two production sectors, final output and human capital, and affect inequality in a different way according to the different tax changes. The simulation results derived in the paper show how a human capital (skills) tax cut, which could be interpreted as a reduction in progressivity, ends up increasing both the shares of labor and physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and decreasing inequality. Moreover, a raw labor wage tax decrease, which could also be interpreted as an increase in the progressivity of the system, increases the share of labor devoted to the production of final output and increases inequality. Finally, a physical capital tax decrease reduces the share of physical capital devoted to the production of knowledge and allows for a lower inequality value. Nevertheless, none of the various types of taxes ends up changing the share of human capital in the knowledge production, which will deserve our future attention

Pore size distribution in soils irrigated with sodic water and wastewater

Soil porosity, especially pore size distribution, is an important controlling factor for soil infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, and water retention. This study aimed to verify the effect of secondary-treated domestic wastewater (STW) on the porosity of a sandy loam Oxisol in the city of Lins, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The two-year experiment was divided into three plots: soil cultivated with corn and sunflower and irrigated with STW, soil cultivated and irrigated with sodic groundwater, and non-irrigated and non-cultivated soil (control). At the end of the experiment, undisturbed core samples were sampled from 0 to 2.0 m (8 depths). The water retention curves were obtained by tension plates and Richard's pressure plate apparatus, and the pore size distribution inferred from the retention curves. It was found that irrigation with treated wastewater and treated groundwater led to a decrease in microporosity (V MI), defined as the pore class ranging from 0.2 to 50 μm diameter. On the other hand, a significant increase in cryptoporosity (V CRI) (< 0.2 μm) was identified throughout the soil profile. The presence of Na+ in both waters confirmed the role of this ion on pore size distribution and soil moisture (higher water retention).

Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.