Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 3. Plant factors contributing to drought resistance

A series of experiments were conducted in drought-prone northeast Thailand to examine the magnitude of yield responses of diverse genotypes to drought stress environments and to identify traits that may confer drought resistance to rainfed lowland rice. One hundred and twenty eight genotypes were grown under non-stress and four different types of drought stress conditions. Under severe drought conditions, the maintenance of PWP of genotypes played a significant role in determining final grain yield. Because of their smaller plant size (lower total dry matter at anthesis) genotypes that extracted less soil water during the early stages of the drought period, tended to maintain higher PWP and had a higher fertile panicle percentage, filled grain percentage and final grain yield than other genotypes. PWP was correlated with delay in flowering (r = -0.387) indicating that the latter could be used as a measure of water potential under stress. Genotypes with well-developed root systems extracted water too rapidly and experienced severe water stress at flowering. RPR which showed smaller coefficient of variation was more useful than root mass density in identifying genotypes with large root system. Under less severe and prolonged drought conditions, genotypes that could achieve higher plant dry matter at anthesis were desirable. They had less delay in flowering, higher grain yield and higher drought response index, indicating the importance of ability to grow during the prolonged stress period. Other shoot characters (osmotic potential, leaf temperature, leaf rolling, leaf death) had little effect on grain yield under different drought conditions. This was associated with a lack of genetic variation and difficulty in estimating trait values precisely. Under mild stress conditions (yield loss less than 50%), there was no significant relationship between the measured drought characters and grain yield. Under these mild drought conditions, yield is determined more by yield potential and phenotype than by drought resistant mechanisms per se. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting cane yield and commercial cane sugar in the Tully district

The Tully Sugar Mill has collected information about sugarcane supplied for crushing from every block in the mill district from 1970 to 1999. Data from 1988 to 1999 were analysed to understand the extent of the variation in cane yield per hectare and commercial cane sugar in the Tully mill area. The key factors influencing the variation in cane yield and commercial cane sugar in this commercial environment were identified and the variance components computed using a restricted maximum likelihood methodology. Cane yield was predominantly influenced by the year in which it was harvested, the month when the crop was ratooned (month of harvest in the previous year) and the farm of origin. These variables were relatively more important than variety, age of crop or crop class (plant crop, first ratoon through to fourth or older ratoons) and fallowing practice (fallow or ploughout-replant). The month-of-ratooning effect was relatively stable from year-to-year. Commercial cane sugar was influenced by the year of harvest, the month of harvest and their interaction, in that the influence of the month of harvest varied from year to year. Variety and farm differences were also significant but accounted for a much lower portion of the variation in commercial cane sugar. An empirical model was constructed from the key factors that influenced commercial cane sugar and cane yield to quantify their combined influence on sugar yield (t/ha). This may be used to assist mill personnel to predict their activities more accurately, for example to calculate the impact of a late finish to the current harvest season on the following year's crop.

Tree yield and fruit minerals concentrations influence 'Hass' avocado fruit quality

To investigate the variation in quality of 'Hass' avocado fruit within an orchard, fruit were harvested at commercial maturity from 15 'Hass' trees of similar appearance, growing in three adjacent rows on the same soil type, and receiving similar management. Fruit were harvested at commercial maturity, and either ripened at 22 degreesC or stored at 2 or 7 degreesC for 3 or 5 weeks and then ripened. Significant positive correlations (based, on the mean for each datum tree) were noted between fruit flesh calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) concentrations and the (Ca + Mg)/potassium ratio, and the number of days for the fruit to reach the eating ripe stage (DTR). Negative correlations were also observed between these minerals and anthracnose and mesocarp discolouration (MD) severity. Negative correlations were observed between fruit potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and DTR. Fruit from trees with high fruit yield were generally smaller, with lower anthracnose and MD severity, ripened more slowly, and had higher flesh Ca concentrations. It is likely that cultural practices that maintain moderate to high fruit yield and reduce variation in yield will improve avocado fruit quality and reduce variability in quality. Since the main differences between adjacent trees in this trial were the seedling rootstocks of unknown origin, it is suggested that rootstocks can have a significant impact on avocado yield and fruit quality. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditional simulation of random fields by successive residuals

This paper presents a new approach to the LU decomposition method for the simulation of stationary and ergodic random fields. The approach overcomes the size limitations of LU and is suitable for any size simulation. The proposed approach can facilitate fast updating of generated realizations with new data, when appropriate, without repeating the full simulation process. Based on a novel column partitioning of the L matrix, expressed in terms of successive conditional covariance matrices, the approach presented here demonstrates that LU simulation is equivalent to the successive solution of kriging residual estimates plus random terms. Consequently, it can be used for the LU decomposition of matrices of any size. The simulation approach is termed conditional simulation by successive residuals as at each step, a small set (group) of random variables is simulated with a LU decomposition of a matrix of updated conditional covariance of residuals. The simulated group is then used to estimate residuals without the need to solve large systems of equations.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield responses to ethephon for unshaken and mechanically shaken macadamia

Ethephon promotes fruit abscission and accelerates harvest of macadamia, Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae), but has limited use due to concerns that associated abscission of inner-canopy leaves may reduce subsequent yield and nut quality. Yield and quality were monitored for 2 years following ethephon application to both unshaken and mechanically shaken trees of the late-abscising cultivar, A16. Nut quality was not adversely affected in subsequent seasons, but effects on yield varied. In 3 of 6 experiments, ethephon reduced yield in the year after application. However, in 4 of the 6 experiments, 2 years of ethephon application greatly elevated yield in the third year. This was not a compensating recovery from low second-year yield, as third-year yield of trees that received only 1 ethephon treatment did not differ from yield of control trees. Ethephon-assisted harvest remains feasible for macadamia, although further work is warranted given the potential risks and considerable benefits for subsequent yield. Inner canopy defoliation, resulting from ethephon use, could represent a canopy management technique for dense-canopy fruit trees.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.