Forward modelling to determine the observational signatures of white-light imaging and interplanetary scintillation for the propagation of an interplanetary shock in the ecliptic plane

Recent coordinated observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) from the EISCAT, MERLIN, and STELab, and stereoscopic white-light imaging from the two heliospheric imagers (HIs) onboard the twin STEREO spacecraft are significant to continuously track the propagation and evolution of solar eruptions throughout interplanetary space. In order to obtain a better understanding of the observational signatures in these two remote-sensing techniques, the magnetohydrodynamics of the macro-scale interplanetary disturbance and the radio-wave scattering of the micro-scale electron-density fluctuation are coupled and investigated using a newly constructed multi-scale numerical model. This model is then applied to a case of an interplanetary shock propagation within the ecliptic plane. The shock could be nearly invisible to an HI, once entering the Thomson-scattering sphere of the HI. The asymmetry in the optical images between the western and eastern HIs suggests the shock propagation off the Sun–Earth line. Meanwhile, an IPS signal, strongly dependent on the local electron density, is insensitive to the density cavity far downstream of the shock front. When this cavity (or the shock nose) is cut through by an IPS ray-path, a single speed component at the flank (or the nose) of the shock can be recorded; when an IPS ray-path penetrates the sheath between the shock nose and this cavity, two speed components at the sheath and flank can be detected. Moreover, once a shock front touches an IPS ray-path, the derived position and speed at the irregularity source of this IPS signal, together with an assumption of a radial and constant propagation of the shock, can be used to estimate the later appearance of the shock front in the elongation of the HI field of view. The results of synthetic measurements from forward modelling are helpful in inferring the in-situ properties of coronal mass ejection from real observational data via an inverse approach.

Modelling effects of prolonged conditioning on dormancy and germination of Striga hermonthica

The impact of environment on the germination biology of the parasite was studied in the laboratory with seeds conditioned at various water potentials, urea concentrations and at 17.5 to 37.5°C for up to 133 days. Maximum germination was observed at 20 to 25°C. Water stress and urea suppressed maximum germination. The final percentage germination response to period of conditioning showed a non-linear relationship and suggests the release of seeds from dormancy during the initial period and later on dormancy induction. Germination percentage increased with increase in conditioning period to a threshold and remained stable for variable periods followed by a decline with further extension of conditioning time. The decline in germination finally terminated in zero germination in most treatments before the end of experimentation. The investigated factors of temperature, water potential and urea showed clear effects on the expression of dormancy pattern of the parasite. The effects of water potential and urea were viewed as modifying a primary response of seeds to temperature during conditioning. The changes in germinability potential during conditioning were consistent with the hypothesis that dormancy periods are normally distributed within seed populations and that loss of primary dormancy precedes induction of secondary dormancy. Hence an additive mathematical model of loss of primary dormancy and induction of secondary as affected by environment was developed as: G = {[Φ-1 (Kp+ (po+pnN+pwW) (T-Tb) t)]-[Φ-1 (Ks+ ((swW+sa)+sorT)t)]}[Φ-1(aT2+bT+c+cwW)].

The role of weeds in supporting biological diversity within crop fields

Weeds are major constraints on crop production, yet as part of the primary producers within farming systems, they may be important components of the agroecosystem. Using published literature, the role of weeds in arable systems for other above-ground trophic levels are examined. In the UK, there is evidence that weed flora have changed over the past century, with some species declining in abundance, whereas others have increased. There is also some evidence for a decline in the size of arable weed seedbanks. Some of these changes reflect improved agricultural efficiency, changes to more winter-sown crops in arable rotations and the use of more broad-spectrum herbicide combinations. Interrogation of a database of records of phytophagous insects associated with plant species in the UK reveals that many arable weed species support a high diversity of insect species. Reductions in abundances of host plants may affect associated insects and other taxa. A number of insect groups and farmland birds have shown marked population declines over the past 30 years. Correlational studies indicate that many of these declines are associated with changes in agricultural practices. Certainly reductions in food availability in winter and for nestling birds in spring are implicated in the declines of several bird species, notably the grey partridge, Perdix perdix . Thus weeds have a role within agroecosystems in supporting biodiversity more generally. An understanding of weed competitivity and the importance of weeds for insects and birds may allow the identification of the most important weed species. This may form the first step in balancing the needs for weed control with the requirements for biodiversity and more sustainable production methods.

The effects of non-host plant essential oil volatiles on the behaviour of the pollen beetle Meligethes aeneus

The use of semiochemicals for manipulation of the pollen beetle Meligethes aeneus (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is being investigated for potential incorporation into a push-pull control strategy for this pest, which damages oilseed rape, Brassica napus L. (Brassicaceae), throughout Europe. The response of M. aeneus to non-host plant volatiles was investigated in laboratory assays to establish whether they have any effect on host plant location behaviour. Two approaches were used. First a novel, moving-air bioassay using air funnels was developed to compare the response of M. aeneus to several non-host plant essential oils. The beetles avoided the host plant flowers in the presence of non-host volatiles, suggesting that M. aeneus uses olfactory cues in host location and/or acceptance. The results were expressed as 'repellency values' in order to compare the effects of the different oils tested. Lavender (Lavendula angustifolia Miller) (Lamiaceae) essential oil gave the highest repellency value. In addition, a four-arm olfactometer was used to investigate olfactory responses, as this technique eliminated the influence of host plant visual and contact cues. The attraction to host plant volatiles was reduced by the addition of non-host plant volatiles, but in addition to masking the host plant volatiles, the non-host volatiles were avoided when these were presented alone. This is encouraging for the potential use of non-host plants within a push-pull strategy to reduce the pest colonisation of crops. Further testing in more realistic semi-field and field trials is underway.

Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions

The rate and scale of human-driven changes can exert profound impacts on ecosystems, the species that make them up and the services they provide that sustain humanity. Given the speed at which these changes are occurring, one of society's major challenges is to coexist within ecosystems and to manage ecosystem services in a sustainable way. The effect of possible scenarios of global change on ecosystem services can be explored using ecosystem models. Such models should adequately represent ecosystem processes above and below the soil surface (aboveground and belowground) and the interactions between them. We explore possibilities to include such interactions into ecosystem models at scales that range from global to local. At the regional to global scale we suggest to expand the plant functional type concept (aggregating plants into groups according to their physiological attributes) to include functional types of aboveground-belowground interactions. At the scale of discrete plant communities, process-based and organism-oriented models could be combined into "hybrid approaches" that include organism-oriented mechanistic representation of a limited number of trophic interactions in an otherwise process - oriented approach. Under global change the density and activity of organisms determining the processes may change non-linearly and therefore explicit knowledge of the organisms and their responses should ideally be included. At the individual plant scale a common organism-based conceptual model of aboveground-belowground interactions has emerged. This conceptual model facilitates the formulation of research questions to guide experiments aiming to identify patterns that are common within, but differ between, ecosystem types and biomes. Such experiments inform modelling approaches at larger scales. Future ecosystem models should better include this evolving knowledge of common patterns of aboveground-belowground interactions. Improved ecosystem models are necessary toots to reduce the uncertainty in the information that assists us in the sustainable management of our environment in a changing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Why high seed densities within buried mesh bags may overestimate depletion rates of soil seed banks

1. Estimates of seed bank depletion rates are essential for modelling and management of plant populations. The seed bag burial method is often used to measure seed mortality in the soil. However, the density of seeds within seed bags is higher than densities in natural seed banks, which may elevate levels of pathogens and influence seed mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of fungi and seed density within buried mesh bags on the mortality of seeds. Striga hermonthica was chosen as the study species because it has been widely studied but different methods for measuring seed mortality in the soil have yielded contradictory estimates. 2. Seed bags were buried in soil and exhumed at regular time intervals to monitor mortality of the seeds in three field experiments during two rainy seasons. The effect of fungal activity on seed mortality was evaluated in a fungi exclusion experiment. Differences in seed-to-seed interaction were obtained by using two and four densities within the seed bags in consecutive years. Densities were created by mixing 1000 seeds with 0, 10, 100 or 1000 g of coarse sand. 3. The mortality rate was significantly lower when fungi were excluded, indicating the possible role of pathogenic fungi. 4. Decreasing the density of seeds in bags significantly reduced seed mortality, most probably because of decreased seed-to-seed contamination by pathogenic fungi. 5. Synthesis and applications. Models of plant populations in general and annual weeds in particular often use values from the literature for seed bank depletion rates. These depletion rates have often been estimated by the seed bag burial method, yet seed density within seed bags may be unrealistically high. Consequently, estimates of seed mortality rates may be too high because of an overestimation of the effects of soil or seed-borne pathogens. Species that have been classified from such studies as having short-lived seed banks may need to be re-assessed using realistic densities either within seed bags or otherwise. Similarly, models of seed bank dynamics based on such overestimated depletion rates may lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the seed banks and, perhaps, the management of weeds and rare species.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the formation of necrotic regions in avascular tumours

The mechanisms underlying the formation of necrotic regions within avascular tumours are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the relative roles of nutrient deprivation and of cell death, from both the proliferating phase of the cell cycle via apoptosis and from the quiescent phase via necrosis, in changing the structure within multicellular tumour spheroids and particularly the accumulation of dead cell material in the centre. A mathematical model is presented and studied that accounts for nutrient diffusion, changes in cell cycling rates, the two different routes to cell death as well as active motion of cells and passive motion of the dead cell material. In studying the accumulation of dead cell matter we do not distinguish between the route by which each was formed. The resulting mathematical model is examined for a number of scenarios. Results show that in many cases the size of the necrotic core is closely correlated with low levels in nutrient concentration. However, in certain cases, particularly where the rate of necrosis is large, the resulting necrotic core can lead to regions of non-negligible nutrient concentration-dependent upon the mode of cell death.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Growth of copper nanoparticles within VOx nanotubes

The synthesis of new Cu-VOx nanotubes has been achieved by exchanging a Cu(II) salt against the protonated template in the parent dodecylamine-VOx nanotubes. The intercalation of Cu(II) species induces some significant morphological and structural changes within the material, but the tubular shape is still well preserved. Controlled thermolysis under nitrogen of the Cu(II) species initially dispersed within the multiwalls induces the growth and sintering of copper nanoparticles, which are formed without destroying the tubular morphology of the host carrier. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Metal complexes of a dipyridine octaazamacrocycle: stability constants, structural and modelling studies

Two 28-membered octaazamacrocycles, [28]py(2)N(6) and Me-2[28]py(2)N(6), have been synthesized. The protonation constants of the N-methyl. derivative and the stability constants of its complexes with Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+, and Pb2+ were determined at 25degreesC in 0.10 mol dm(-3) KNO3. The high overall basicity of Me-2[28]py(2)N(6) is ascribed to the weaker repulsion between protonated contiguous charged ammonium sites separated by propyl chains. These studies together with NMR, UV-vis and EPR spectroscopies indicated the presence of mono- and di-nuclear species, The single crystal structure of the complex [Ni-2([28]py(2)N(6))(H2O)(4)]Cl-4.3H(2)O was determined, and showed each nickel centre in a distorted octahedral co-ordination environment. The nickel centres are held within the macrocycle at a large distance of 6.991(g) Angstrom from each other. The formation of mononuclear complexes was evaluated theoretically via molecular mechanics (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) calculations and showed that these large macrocycles have sufficient flexibility to encapsulate metal ions with different stereo-electronic sizes. Structures for small and large metal ions are proposed.

Modelling for planning building design - a critique of available approaches

This paper reviews four approaches used to create rational tools to aid the planning and the management of the building design process and then proposes a fifth approach. The new approach that has been developed is based on the mechanical aspects of technology rather than subjective design issues. The knowledge base contains, for each construction technology, a generic model of the detailed design process. Each activity in the process is specified by its input and output information needs. By connecting the input demands of one technology with the output supply from another technology a map or network of design activity is formed. Thus, it is possible to structure a specific model from the generic knowledge base within a KBE system.

Modelling trade contractor information production

Design management research usually deals with the processes within the professional design team and yet, in the UK, the volume of the total project information produced by the specialist trade contractors equals or exceeds that produced by the design team. There is a need to understand the scale of this production task and to plan and manage it accordingly. The model of the process on which the plan is to be based, while generic, must be sufficiently robust to cover the majority of instances. An approach using design elements, in sufficient depth to possibly develop tools for a predictive model of the process, is described. The starting point is that each construction element and its components have a generic sequence of design activities. Specific requirements tailor the element's application to the building. Then there are the constraints produced due to the interaction with other elements. Therefore, the selection of a component within the element may impose a set of constraints that will affect the choice of other design elements. Thus, a design decision can be seen as an interrelated element-constraint-element (ECE) sub-net. To illustrate this approach, an example of the process within precast concrete cladding has been used.

Modelling trade contractor information production

Design management research usually deals with the processes within the professional design team and yet, in the UK, the volume of the total project information produced by the specialist trade contractors equals or exceeds that produced by the design team. There is a need to understand the scale of this production task and to plan and manage it accordingly. The model of the process on which the plan is to be based, while generic, must be sufficiently robust to cover the majority of instances. An approach using design elements, in sufficient depth to possibly develop tools for a predictive model of the process, is described. The starting point is that each construction element and its components have a generic sequence of design activities. Specific requirements tailor the element's application to the building. Then there are the constraints produced due to the interaction with other elements. Therefore, the selection of a component within the element may impose a set of constraints that will affect the choice of other design elements. Thus, a design decision can be seen as an interrelated element-constraint-element (ECE) sub-net. To illustrate this approach, an example of the process within precast concrete cladding has been used.