Stability of Ampelometric Characteristics of Vitis vinifera L. cv. 'Syrah' and 'Sauvignon blanc' Leaves: Impact of Within-vineyard Variability and Pruning Method/Bud Load

Historically, grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) leaf characterisation has been a driving force in the identification of cultivars. In this study, ampelometric (foliometric) analysis was done on leaf samples collected from hand-pruned, mechanically pruned and minimally pruned ‘Sauvignon blanc’ and ‘Syrah’ vines to estimate the impact of within-vineyard variability and a change in bud load on the stability of leaf properties. The results showed that within-vineyard variability of ampelometric characteristics was high within a cultivar, irrespective of bud load. In terms of the O.I.V. coding system, zero to four class differences were observed between minimum and maximum values of each characteristic. The value of variability of each characteristic was different between the three levels of bud load and the two cultivars. With respect to bud load, the number of shoots per vine had a significant effect on the characteristics of the leaf laminae. Single leaf area and lengths of veins changed significantly for both cultivars, irrespective of treatment, while angle between veins proved to be a stable characteristic. A large number of biometric data can be recorded on a single leaf; the data measured on several leaves, however, are not necessarily unique for a specific cultivar. The leaf characteristics analysed in this study can be divided into two groups according to the response to a change in bud load, i.e. stable (angles between the veins, depths of sinuses) and variable (length of the veins, length of the petiole, single leaf area). The variable characteristics are not recommended to be used in cultivar identification, unless the pruning method/bud load is known.

Efficient asynchronous scheduling algorithms for cost-effective buffered crossbar switches

Buffered crossbar switches have recently attracted considerable attention as the next generation of high speed interconnects. They are a special type of crossbar switches with an exclusive buffer at each crosspoint of the crossbar. They demonstrate unique advantages over traditional unbuffered crossbar switches, such as high throughput, low latency, and asynchronous packet scheduling. However, since crosspoint buffers are expensive on-chip memories, it is desired that each crosspoint has only a small buffer. This dissertation proposes a series of practical algorithms and techniques for efficient packet scheduling for buffered crossbar switches. To reduce the hardware cost of such switches and make them scalable, we considered partially buffered crossbars, whose crosspoint buffers can be of an arbitrarily small size. Firstly, we introduced a hybrid scheme called Packet-mode Asynchronous Scheduling Algorithm (PASA) to schedule best effort traffic. PASA combines the features of both distributed and centralized scheduling algorithms and can directly handle variable length packets without Segmentation And Reassembly (SAR). We showed by theoretical analysis that it achieves 100% throughput for any admissible traffic in a crossbar with a speedup of two. Moreover, outputs in PASA have a large probability to avoid the more time-consuming centralized scheduling process, and thus make fast scheduling decisions. Secondly, we proposed the Fair Asynchronous Segment Scheduling (FASS) algorithm to handle guaranteed performance traffic with explicit flow rates. FASS reduces the crosspoint buffer size by dividing packets into shorter segments before transmission. It also provides tight constant performance guarantees by emulating the ideal Generalized Processor Sharing (GPS) model. Furthermore, FASS requires no speedup for the crossbar, lowering the hardware cost and improving the switch capacity. Thirdly, we presented a bandwidth allocation scheme called Queue Length Proportional (QLP) to apply FASS to best effort traffic. QLP dynamically obtains a feasible bandwidth allocation matrix based on the queue length information, and thus assists the crossbar switch to be more work-conserving. The feasibility and stability of QLP were proved, no matter whether the traffic distribution is uniform or non-uniform. Hence, based on bandwidth allocation of QLP, FASS can also achieve 100% throughput for best effort traffic in a crossbar without speedup.

Secure information flow via stripping and fast simulation

Type systems for secure information flow aim to prevent a program from leaking information from H (high) to L (low) variables. Traditionally, bisimulation has been the prevalent technique for proving the soundness of such systems. This work introduces a new proof technique based on stripping and fast simulation, and shows that it can be applied in a number of cases where bisimulation fails. We present a progressive development of this technique over a representative sample of languages including a simple imperative language (core theory), a multiprocessing nondeterministic language, a probabilistic language, and a language with cryptographic primitives. In the core theory we illustrate the key concepts of this technique in a basic setting. A fast low simulation in the context of transition systems is a binary relation where simulating states can match the moves of simulated states while maintaining the equivalence of low variables; stripping is a function that removes high commands from programs. We show that we can prove secure information flow by arguing that the stripping relation is a fast low simulation. We then extend the core theory to an abstract distributed language under a nondeterministic scheduler. Next, we extend to a probabilistic language with a random assignment command; we generalize fast simulation to the setting of discrete time Markov Chains, and prove approximate probabilistic noninterference. Finally, we introduce cryptographic primitives into the probabilistic language and prove computational noninterference, provided that the underling encryption scheme is secure.

Host and network optimizations for performance enhancement and energy efficiency in data center networks

Modern data centers host hundreds of thousands of servers to achieve economies of scale. Such a huge number of servers create challenges for the data center network (DCN) to provide proportionally large bandwidth. In addition, the deployment of virtual machines (VMs) in data centers raises the requirements for efficient resource allocation and find-grained resource sharing. Further, the large number of servers and switches in the data center consume significant amounts of energy. Even though servers become more energy efficient with various energy saving techniques, DCN still accounts for 20% to 50% of the energy consumed by the entire data center. The objective of this dissertation is to enhance DCN performance as well as its energy efficiency by conducting optimizations on both host and network sides. First, as the DCN demands huge bisection bandwidth to interconnect all the servers, we propose a parallel packet switch (PPS) architecture that directly processes variable length packets without segmentation-and-reassembly (SAR). The proposed PPS achieves large bandwidth by combining switching capacities of multiple fabrics, and it further improves the switch throughput by avoiding padding bits in SAR. Second, since certain resource demands of the VM are bursty and demonstrate stochastic nature, to satisfy both deterministic and stochastic demands in VM placement, we propose the Max-Min Multidimensional Stochastic Bin Packing (M3SBP) algorithm. M3SBP calculates an equivalent deterministic value for the stochastic demands, and maximizes the minimum resource utilization ratio of each server. Third, to provide necessary traffic isolation for VMs that share the same physical network adapter, we propose the Flow-level Bandwidth Provisioning (FBP) algorithm. By reducing the flow scheduling problem to multiple stages of packet queuing problems, FBP guarantees the provisioned bandwidth and delay performance for each flow. Finally, while DCNs are typically provisioned with full bisection bandwidth, DCN traffic demonstrates fluctuating patterns, we propose a joint host-network optimization scheme to enhance the energy efficiency of DCNs during off-peak traffic hours. The proposed scheme utilizes a unified representation method that converts the VM placement problem to a routing problem and employs depth-first and best-fit search to find efficient paths for flows.

Algorithms for efficient transaction management and consistent queries in client -server semantic object-oriented parallel databases

Large read-only or read-write transactions with a large read set and a small write set constitute an important class of transactions used in such applications as data mining, data warehousing, statistical applications, and report generators. Such transactions are best supported with optimistic concurrency, because locking of large amounts of data for extended periods of time is not an acceptable solution. The abort rate in regular optimistic concurrency algorithms increases exponentially with the size of the transaction. The algorithm proposed in this dissertation solves this problem by using a new transaction scheduling technique that allows a large transaction to commit safely with significantly greater probability that can exceed several orders of magnitude versus regular optimistic concurrency algorithms. A performance simulation study and a formal proof of serializability and external consistency of the proposed algorithm are also presented.^ This dissertation also proposes a new query optimization technique (lazy queries). Lazy Queries is an adaptive query execution scheme which optimizes itself as the query runs. Lazy queries can be used to find an intersection of sub-queries in a very efficient way, which does not require full execution of large sub-queries nor does it require any statistical knowledge about the data.^ An efficient optimistic concurrency control algorithm used in a massively parallel B-tree with variable-length keys is introduced. B-trees with variable-length keys can be effectively used in a variety of database types. In particular, we show how such a B-tree was used in our implementation of a semantic object-oriented DBMS. The concurrency control algorithm uses semantically safe optimistic virtual "locks" that achieve very fine granularity in conflict detection. This algorithm ensures serializability and external consistency by using logical clocks and backward validation of transactional queries. A formal proof of correctness of the proposed algorithm is also presented. ^

Nursing Activities Score: avaliação da carga de trabalho de enfermagem em unidade de terapia intensiva adulto

The sizing of nursing human resources is an essential management tool to meet the needs of the patients and the institution. Regarding to the Intensive Care Unit, where the most critical patients are treated and the most advanced life-support equipments are used, requiring a high number of skilled workers, the use of specific indicators to measure the workload of the team becomes necessary. The Nursing Activities Score is a validated instrument for measuring nursing workload in the Intensive Care Unit that has demonstrated effectiveness. It is a cross-sectional study with the primary objective of assessing the workload of nursing staff in an adult Intensive Care Unit through the application of the Nursing Activities Score. The study was conducted in a private hospital specialized in the treatment of patients with cancer, which is located in the city of Natal (Rio Grande do Norte – Brazil). The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the hospital (Protocol number 558.799; CAAE 24966013.7.0000.5293). For data collection, a form of sociodemographic characteristics of the patients was used; the Nursing Activities Score was used to identify the workload of nursing staff; and the instrument of Perroca, which classifies patients and provides data related to the their need for nursing care, was also used. The collected data were analyzed using a statistical package. The categorical variables were described by absolute and relative frequency, while the number by median and interquartile range. Considering the inferential approach, the Spearman test, the Wald chi-square, Kruskal Wallis and Mann-Whitney test were used. The statistically significant variables were those with p values <0.05. The evaluation of the overall averages of NAS, considering the first 15 days of hospitalization, was performed by the analysis of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE), with adjust for the variable length of hospitalization. The sample consisted of 40 patients, in the period of June to August 2014. The results showed a mean age of 62,1 years (±23,4) with a female predominance (57,5%). The most frequent type of treatment was clinical (60,0%), observing an average stay of 6,9 days (±6,5). Considering the origin, most patients (35%) came from the Surgical Center. There was a mortality rate of 27,5%. 277 measures of NAS score and Perroca were performed, and the averages of 69,8% (±24,1) and 22,7% (±4.2) were obtained, respectively. There was an association between clinical outcome and value of the Nursing Activities Score in 24 hours (p <0.001), and between the degree of dependency of patients and nursing workload (rp 0,653, p<0,001). The achieved workload of the nursing staff, in the analyzed period, was presented high, showing that hospitalized patients required a high demand for care. These findings create subsidies for sizing of staff and allocation of human resources in the sector, in order to achieve greater safety and patient satisfaction as a result of intensive care, as well as an environment conducive to quality of life for the professionals

Behavioural profiles of captive capuchin monkeys (Sapajus spp.): analyses at group and individual levels

The use of behavioural indicators of suffering and welfare in captive animals has produced ambiguous results. In comparisons between groups, those in worse condition tend to exhibit increased overall rate of Behaviours Potentially Indicative of Stress (BPIS), but when comparing within groups, individuals differ in their stress coping strategies. This dissertation presents analyses to unravel the Behavioural Profile of a sample of 26 captive capuchin monkeys, of three different species (Sapajus libidinosus, S. flavius and S. xanthosternos), kept in different enclosure types. In total, 147,17 hours of data were collected. We explored four type of analysis: Activity Budgets, Diversity indexes, Markov chains and Sequence analyses, and Social Network Analyses, resulting in nine indexes of behavioural occurrence and organization. In chapter One we explore group differences. Results support predictions of minor sex and species differences and major differences in behavioural profile due to enclosure type: i. individuals in less enriched enclosures exhibited a more diverse BPIS repertoire and a decreased probability of a sequence with six Genus Normative Behaviour; ii. number of most probable behavioural transitions including at least one BPIS was higher in less enriched enclosures; iii. proeminence indexes indicate that BPIS function as dead ends of behavioural sequences, and proeminence of three BPIS (pacing, self-direct, active I) were higher in less enriched enclosures. Overall, these data are not supportive of BPIS as a repetitive pattern, with a mantra-like calming effect. Rather, the picture that emerges is more supportive of BPIS as activities that disrupt organization of behaviours, introducing “noise” that compromises optimal activity budget. In chapter Two we explored individual differences in stress coping strategies. We classified individuals along six axes of exploratory behaviour. These were only weakly correlated indicating low correlation among behavioural indicators of syndromes. Nevertheless, the results are suggestive of two broad stress coping strategies, similar to the bold/proactive and shy/reactive pattern: more exploratory capuchin monkeys exhibited increased values of proeminence in Pacing, aberrant sexual display and Active 1 BPIS, while less active animals exhibited increased probability in significant sequences involving at least one BPIS, and increased prominence in own stereotypy. Capuchin monkeys are known for their cognitive capacities and behavioural flexibility, therefore, the search for a consistent set of behavioural indictors of welfare and individual differences requires further studies and larger data sets. With this work we aim contributing to design scientifically grounded and statistically correct protocols for collection of behavioural data that permits comparability of results and meta-analyses, from whatever theoretical perspective interpretation it may receive.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon dates of sediment cores obtained during Bio Hespérides cruise SVAIS and OGS Explora cruise EGLACOM between 2007-2008

A high-resolution paleomagnetic and rock magnetic study has been carried out on sediment cores collected in glaciomarine silty-clay sequences from the continental shelf and slope of the southern Storfjorden trough-mouth fan, on the northwestern Barents Sea continental margin. The Storfjorden sedimentary system was investigated during the SVAIS and EGLACOM cruises, when 10 gravity cores, with a variable length from 1.03 m to 6.41 m, were retrieved. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C analyses on 24 samples indicate that the cores span a time interval that includes the Holocene, the last deglaciation phase and in some cores the last glacial maximum. The sediments carry a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization and have a valuable potential to reconstruct the paleosecular variation (PSV) of the geomagnetic field, including relative paleointensity (RPI) variations. The paleomagnetic data allow reconstruction of past dynamics and amplitude of the geomagnetic field variations at high northern latitudes (75°-76° N). At the same time, the rock magnetic and paleomagnetic data allow a high-resolution correlation of the sedimentary sequences and a refinement of their preliminary age models. The Holocene PSV and RPI records appear particularly sound, since they are consistent between cores and they can be correlated to the closest regional stacking curves (UK PSV, FENNOSTACK and FENNORPIS) and global geomagnetic model for the last 7 ka (CALS7k.2). The computed amplitude of secular variation is lower than that outlined by some geomagnetic field models, suggesting that it has been almost independent from latitude during the Holocene.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Motif detection inspired by immune memory

The search for patterns or motifs in data represents an area of key interest to many researchers. In this paper we present the Motif Tracking Algorithm, a novel immune inspired pattern identification tool that is able to identify variable length unknown motifs which repeat within time series data. The algorithm searches from a completely neutral perspective that is independent of the data being analysed and the underlying motifs. In this paper we test the flexibility of the motif tracking algorithm by applying it to the search for patterns in two industrial data sets. The algorithm is able to identify a population of motifs successfully in both cases, and the value of these motifs is discussed.

Host and Network Optimizations for Performance Enhancement and Energy Efficiency in Data Center Networks

Modern data centers host hundreds of thousands of servers to achieve economies of scale. Such a huge number of servers create challenges for the data center network (DCN) to provide proportionally large bandwidth. In addition, the deployment of virtual machines (VMs) in data centers raises the requirements for efficient resource allocation and find-grained resource sharing. Further, the large number of servers and switches in the data center consume significant amounts of energy. Even though servers become more energy efficient with various energy saving techniques, DCN still accounts for 20% to 50% of the energy consumed by the entire data center. The objective of this dissertation is to enhance DCN performance as well as its energy efficiency by conducting optimizations on both host and network sides. First, as the DCN demands huge bisection bandwidth to interconnect all the servers, we propose a parallel packet switch (PPS) architecture that directly processes variable length packets without segmentation-and-reassembly (SAR). The proposed PPS achieves large bandwidth by combining switching capacities of multiple fabrics, and it further improves the switch throughput by avoiding padding bits in SAR. Second, since certain resource demands of the VM are bursty and demonstrate stochastic nature, to satisfy both deterministic and stochastic demands in VM placement, we propose the Max-Min Multidimensional Stochastic Bin Packing (M3SBP) algorithm. M3SBP calculates an equivalent deterministic value for the stochastic demands, and maximizes the minimum resource utilization ratio of each server. Third, to provide necessary traffic isolation for VMs that share the same physical network adapter, we propose the Flow-level Bandwidth Provisioning (FBP) algorithm. By reducing the flow scheduling problem to multiple stages of packet queuing problems, FBP guarantees the provisioned bandwidth and delay performance for each flow. Finally, while DCNs are typically provisioned with full bisection bandwidth, DCN traffic demonstrates fluctuating patterns, we propose a joint host-network optimization scheme to enhance the energy efficiency of DCNs during off-peak traffic hours. The proposed scheme utilizes a unified representation method that converts the VM placement problem to a routing problem and employs depth-first and best-fit search to find efficient paths for flows.

Call recognition and individual identification of fish vocalizations based on automatic speech recognition: An example with the Lusitanian toadfish

The study of acoustic communication in animals often requires not only the recognition of species specific acoustic signals but also the identification of individual subjects, all in a complex acoustic background. Moreover, when very long recordings are to be analyzed, automatic recognition and identification processes are invaluable tools to extract the relevant biological information. A pattern recognition methodology based on hidden Markov models is presented inspired by successful results obtained in the most widely known and complex acoustical communication signal: human speech. This methodology was applied here for the first time to the detection and recognition of fish acoustic signals, specifically in a stream of round-the-clock recordings of Lusitanian toadfish (Halobatrachus didactylus) in their natural estuarine habitat. The results show that this methodology is able not only to detect the mating sounds (boatwhistles) but also to identify individual male toadfish, reaching an identification rate of ca. 95%. Moreover this method also proved to be a powerful tool to assess signal durations in large data sets. However, the system failed in recognizing other sound types.

Convergence time to equilibrium distributions of autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs

We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

Stochastic models and graph theory for Zipf's law

In questo elaborato ci siamo occupati della legge di Zipf sia da un punto di vista applicativo che teorico. Tale legge empirica afferma che il rango in frequenza (RF) delle parole di un testo seguono una legge a potenza con esponente -1. Per quanto riguarda l'approccio teorico abbiamo trattato due classi di modelli in grado di ricreare leggi a potenza nella loro distribuzione di probabilità. In particolare, abbiamo considerato delle generalizzazioni delle urne di Polya e i processi SSR (Sample Space Reducing). Di questi ultimi abbiamo dato una formalizzazione in termini di catene di Markov. Infine abbiamo proposto un modello di dinamica delle popolazioni capace di unificare e riprodurre i risultati dei tre SSR presenti in letteratura. Successivamente siamo passati all'analisi quantitativa dell'andamento del RF sulle parole di un corpus di testi. Infatti in questo caso si osserva che la RF non segue una pura legge a potenza ma ha un duplice andamento che può essere rappresentato da una legge a potenza che cambia esponente. Abbiamo cercato di capire se fosse possibile legare l'analisi dell'andamento del RF con le proprietà topologiche di un grafo. In particolare, a partire da un corpus di testi abbiamo costruito una rete di adiacenza dove ogni parola era collegata tramite un link alla parola successiva. Svolgendo un'analisi topologica della struttura del grafo abbiamo trovato alcuni risultati che sembrano confermare l'ipotesi che la sua struttura sia legata al cambiamento di pendenza della RF. Questo risultato può portare ad alcuni sviluppi nell'ambito dello studio del linguaggio e della mente umana. Inoltre, siccome la struttura del grafo presenterebbe alcune componenti che raggruppano parole in base al loro significato, un approfondimento di questo studio potrebbe condurre ad alcuni sviluppi nell'ambito della comprensione automatica del testo (text mining).

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.