Improving “last mile” delivery performance to retailers in hub and spoke distribution systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the “last mile” delivery link between a hub and spoke distribution system and its customers. The proportion of retail, as opposed to non-retail (trade) customers using this type of distribution system has been growing in the UK. The paper shows the applicability of simulation to demonstrate changes in overall delivery policy to these customers. Design/methodology/approach – A case-based research method was chosen with the aim to provide an exemplar of practice and test the proposition that simulation can be used as a tool to investigate changes in delivery policy. Findings – The results indicate the potential improvement in delivery performance, specifically in meeting timed delivery performance, that could be made by having separate retail and non-retail delivery runs from the spoke terminal to the customer. Research limitations/implications – The simulation study does not attempt to generate a vehicle routing schedule but demonstrates the effects of a change on delivery performance when comparing delivery policies. Practical implications – Scheduling and spreadsheet software are widely used and provide useful assistance in the design of delivery runs and the allocation of staff to those delivery runs. This paper demonstrates to managers the usefulness of investigating the efficacy of current design rules and presents simulation as a suitable tool for this analysis. Originality/value – A simulation model is used in a novel application to test a change in delivery policy in response to a changing delivery profile of increased retail deliveries.

Income distribution dependence of poverty measure:a theoretical analysis

Using a modified deprivation (or poverty) function, in this paper, we theoretically study the changes in poverty with respect to the 'global' mean and variance of the income distribution using Indian survey data. We show that when the income obeys a log-normal distribution, a rising mean income generally indicates a reduction in poverty while an increase in the variance of the income distribution increases poverty. This altruistic view for a developing economy, however, is not tenable anymore once the poverty index is found to follow a pareto distribution. Here although a rising mean income indicates a reduction in poverty, due to the presence of an inflexion point in the poverty function, there is a critical value of the variance below which poverty decreases with increasing variance while beyond this value, poverty undergoes a steep increase followed by a decrease with respect to higher variance. Identifying this inflexion point as the poverty line, we show that the pareto poverty function satisfies all three standard axioms of a poverty index [N.C. Kakwani, Econometrica 43 (1980) 437; A.K. Sen, Econometrica 44 (1976) 219] whereas the log-normal distribution falls short of this requisite. Following these results, we make quantitative predictions to correlate a developing with a developed economy. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical distribution, host for encrypted information

The statistical distribution, when determined from an incomplete set of constraints, is shown to be suitable as host for encrypted information. We design an encoding/decoding scheme to embed such a distribution with hidden information. The encryption security is based on the extreme instability of the encoding procedure. The essential feature of the proposed system lies in the fact that the key for retrieving the code is generated by random perturbations of very small value. The security of the proposed encryption relies on the security to interchange the secret key. Hence, it appears as a good complement to the quantum key distribution protocol. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

The effects of material variations in high value manufacturing industries

It has never been easy for manufacturing companies to understand their confidence level in terms of how accurate and to what degree of flexibility parts can be made. This brings uncertainty in finding the most suitable manufacturing method as well as in controlling their product and process verification systems. The aim of this research is to develop a system for capturing the company’s knowledge and expertise and then reflect it into an MRP (Manufacturing Resource Planning) system. A key activity here is measuring manufacturing and machining capabilities to a reasonable confidence level. For this purpose an in-line control measurement system is introduced to the company. Using SPC (Statistical Process Control) not only helps to predict the trend in manufacturing of parts but also minimises the human error in measurement. Gauge R&R (Repeatability and Reproducibility) study identifies problems in measurement systems. Measurement is like any other process in terms of variability. Reducing this variation via an automated machine probing system helps to avoid defects in future products.Developments in aerospace, nuclear, oil and gas industries demand materials with high performance and high temperature resistance under corrosive and oxidising environments. Superalloys were developed in the latter half of the 20th century as high strength materials for such purposes. For the same characteristics superalloys are considered as difficult-to-cut alloys when it comes to formation and machining. Furthermore due to the sensitivity of superalloy applications, in many cases they should be manufactured with tight tolerances. In addition superalloys, specifically Nickel based, have unique features such as low thermal conductivity due to having a high amount of Nickel in their material composition. This causes a high surface temperature on the work-piece at the machining stage which leads to deformation in the final product.Like every process, the material variations have a significant impact on machining quality. The main cause of variations can originate from chemical composition and mechanical hardness. The non-uniform distribution of metal elements is a major source of variation in metallurgical structures. Different heat treatment standards are designed for processing the material to the desired hardness levels based on application. In order to take corrective actions, a study on the material aspects of superalloys has been conducted. In this study samples from different batches of material have been analysed. This involved material preparation for microscopy analysis, and the effect of chemical compositions on hardness (before and after heat treatment). Some of the results are discussed and presented in this paper.

Vállalati döntés egy új információbiztonsági eszköz, a kvantumkulcscsere bevezetéséről (Corporate decision about the installation of a new information security device the quantum key distribution)

A szerzők tanulmányukban az információbiztonság egy merőben új, minőségi változást hozó találmányával, a kvantumkulcscserével (QKD-vel – quantum key distribution) foglalkoznak. Céljuk az, hogy az újdonságra mint informatikai biztonsági termékre tekintsenek, és megvizsgálják a bevezetéséről szóló vállalati döntés során felmerülő érveket, ellenérveket. Munkájuk egyaránt műszaki és üzleti szemléletű. Előbb elkülönítik a kvantumkulcscsere hagyományos eljárásokkal szembeni használatának motiváló tényezőit, és megállapítják, milyen körülmények között szükséges a napi működésben alkalmazni. Ezt követően a forgalomban is kapható QKD-termékek tulajdonságait és gyártóit szemügyre véve megfogalmazzák a termék széles körű elterjedésének korlátait. Végül a kvantumkulcscsere-termék bevezetéséről szóló vállalati döntéshozás különböző aspektusait tekintik át. Információbiztonsági és üzleti szempontból összehasonlítják az új, valamint a hagyományosan használt kulcscsereeszközöket. Javaslatot tesznek a védendő információ értékének becslésére, amely a használatbavétel költség-haszon elemzését támaszthatja alá. Ebből levezetve megállapítják, hogy mely szervezetek alkotják a QKD lehetséges célcsoportját. Utolsó lépésként pedig arra keresik a választ, melyik időpont lehet ideális a termék bevezetésére. _____ This study aims to illuminate Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), a new invention that has the potential to bring sweeping changes to information security. The authors’ goal is to present QKD as a product in the field of IT security, and to examine several pro and con arguments regarding the installation of this product. Their work demonstrates both the technical and the business perspectives of applying QKD. First they identify motivational factors of using Quantum Key Distribution over traditional methods. Then the authors assess under which circumstances QKD could be necessary to be used in daily business. Furthermore, to evaluate the limitations of its broad spread, they introduce the vendors and explore the properties of their commercially available QKD products. Bearing all this in mind, they come out with numerous factors that can influence corporate decision making regarding the installation of QKD. The authors compare the traditional and the new tools of key distribution from an IT security and business perspective. They also take efforts to estimate the value of the pieces of information to be protected. This could be useful for a subsequent cost–benefit analysis. Their findings try to provide support for determining the target audience of QKD in the IT security market. Finally the authors attempt to find an ideal moment for an organization to invest in Quantum Key Distribution.

Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Angular distribution of prompt photons using the compact muon solenoid detector at a square root of S = 7 TeV

The study of the angular distribution of photon plus jet events in pp collisions at [special characters omitted] = 7 TeV with the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector is presented. The photon is restricted to the central region of the detector (:η: <1.4442) while the jet is allowed to be present in both central and forward regions of CMS (:η: < 2.4). Dominant backgrounds due to jets fragmenting into neutral mesons are accounted for through the use of a template method that discriminates between signal and background. The angular distribution, :η*:, is defined as the absolute value of the difference in η between the leading photon and leading jet in an event divided by two. The angular distribution ranging from 0–1.4 was examined and compared with next-to-leading order QCD predictions and was found to be in good agreement.

Lateral load distribution for curved steel I -girder bridges

Lateral load distribution factor is a key factor for designing and analyzing curved steel I-girder bridges. In this dissertation, the effects of various parameters on moment and shear distribution for curved steel I-girder bridges were studied using the Finite Element Method (FEM). The parameters considered in the study were: radius of curvature, girder spacing, overhang, span length, number of girders, ratio of girder stiffness to overall bridge stiffness, slab thickness, girder longitudinal stiffness, cross frame spacing, and girder torsional inertia. The variations of these parameters were based on the statistical analysis of the real bridge database, which was created by extracting data from existing or newly designed curved steel I-girder bridge plans collected all over the nation. A hypothetical bridge superstructure model that was made of all the mean values of the data was created and used for the parameter study. ^ The study showed that cross frame spacing and girder torsional inertia had negligible effects. Other parameters had been identified as key parameters. Regression analysis was conducted based on the FEM analysis results and simplified formulas for predicting positive moment, negative moment, and shear distribution factors were developed. Thirty-three real bridges were analyzed using FEM to verify the formulas. The ratio of the distribution factor obtained from the formula to the one obtained from the FEM analysis, which was referred to as the g-ratio, was examined. The results showed that the standard deviation of the g-ratios was within 0.04 to 0.06 and the mean value of the g-ratios was greater than unity by one standard deviation. This indicates that the formulas are conservative in most cases but not overly conservative. The final formulas are similar in format to the current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Load Resistance and Factor Design (LRFD) specifications. ^ The developed formulas were compared with other simplified methods. The outcomes showed that the proposed formulas had the most accurate results among all methods. ^ The formulas developed in this study will assist bridge engineers and researchers in predicting the actual live load distribution in horizontally curved steel I-girder bridges. ^

(Table 4+5, Page 290) Distribution of Mn, Fe, Cu. Pb, Zn, Ni and Co in single manganese nodules

Chemical analyses of manganese nodules from the Central Pacific Basin show that their chemical composition varies regionally, although that of the associated sediments is markedly uniform throughout the basin. Mn content varies from 16 to 32% in average. Its higher value is generally found in nodules from siliceous clay and a few from deep-sea clay. Fe content tends to enrich in nodules from deep-sea clay area. Most manganese nodules, except those from deep-sea clay, are remarkably depleted in Fe compared with ones from the other Pacific regions. Mostly, Cu and Ni contents exceed 1% in nodules from siliceous clay, and decrease towards the northwest of the basin where deep-sea clay is distributed. The inter-element relationship between manganese nodules and associated sediments suggests that the mechanism of incorporation of major and minor elements in nodules is apparently different from that of the associated sediments. This finding seems to provide a new interpretation on the problem why manganese nodules having low accumulation rate are not buried by the associated sediments with greater sedimentation rate and then occur on sediment-seawater interface.

A value-oriented model for managing service supply chains

Service supply chain (SSC) has attracted more and more attention from academia and industry. Although there exists extensive product-based supply chain management models and methods, they are not applicable to the SSC as the differences between service and product. Besides, the existing supply chain management models and methods possess some common deficiencies. Because of the above reasons, this paper develops a novel value-oriented model for the management of SSC using the modeling methods of E3-value and Use Case Maps (UCMs). This model can not only resolve the problems of applicability and effectiveness of the existing supply chain management models and methods, but also answer the questions of ‘why the management model is this?’ and ‘how to quantify the potential profitability of the supply chains?’. Meanwhile, the service business processes of SSC system can be established using its logic procedure. In addition, the model can also determine the value and benefits distribution of the entire service value chain and optimize the operations management performance of the service supply.

Distribution and Conservation of the Antillean Manatee in Hispaniola

Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) were heavily hunted in the past throughout the Wider Caribbean Region (WCR), and are currently listed as endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. In most WCR countries, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, remaining manatee populations are believed to be small and declining, but current information is needed on their status, distribution, and local threats to the species.

To assess the past and current distribution and conservation status of the Antillean manatee in Hispaniola, I conducted a systematic review of documentary archives dating from the pre-Columbian era to 2013. I then surveyed more than 670 artisanal fishers from Haiti and the Dominican Republic in 2013-2014 using a standardized questionnaire. Finally, to identify important areas for manatees in the Dominican Republic, I developed a country-wide ensemble model of manatee distribution, and compared modeled hotspots with those identified by fishers.

Manatees were historically abundant in Hispaniola, but were hunted for their meat and became relatively rare by the end of the 19th century. The use of manatee body parts diversified with time to include their oil, skin, and bones. Traditional uses for folk medicine and handcrafts persist today in coastal communities in the Dominican Republic. Most threats to Antillean manatees in Hispaniola are anthropogenic in nature, and most mortality is caused by fisheries. I estimated a minimum island-wide annual mortality of approximately 20 animals. To understand the impact of this level of mortality, and to provide a baseline for measuring the success of future conservation actions, the Dominican Republic and Haiti should work together to obtain a reliable estimate of the current population size of manatees in Hispaniola.

In Haiti, the survey of fishers showed a wider distribution range of the species than suggested by the documentary archive review: fishers reported recent manatee sightings in seven of nine coastal departments, and three manatee hotspot areas were identified in the north, central, and south coasts. Thus, the contracted manatee distribution range suggested by the documentary archive review likely reflects a lack of research in Haiti. Both the review and the interviews agreed that manatees no longer occupy freshwater habitats in the country. In general, more dedicated manatee studies are needed in Haiti, employing aerial, land, or boat surveys.

In the Dominican Republic, the documentary archive review and the survey of fishers showed that manatees still occur throughout the country, and occasionally occupy freshwater habitats. Monte Cristi province in the north coast, and Barahona province in the south coast, were identified as focal areas. Sighting reports of manatees decreased from Monte Cristi eastwards to the adjacent province in the Dominican Republic, and westwards into Haiti. Along the north coast of Haiti, the number of manatee sighting and capture reports decreased with increasing distance to Monte Cristi province. There was good agreement among the modeled manatee hotspots, hotspots identified by fishers, and hotspots identified during previous dedicated manatee studies. The concordance of these results suggests that the distribution and patterns of habitat use of manatees in the Dominican Republic have not changed dramatically in over 30 years, and that the remaining manatees exhibit some degree of site fidelity. The ensemble modeling approach used in the present study produced accurate and detailed maps of manatee distribution with minimum data requirements. This modeling strategy is replicable and readily transferable to other countries in the Caribbean or elsewhere with limited data on a species of interest.

The intrinsic value of manatees was stronger for artisanal fishers in the Dominican Republic than in Haiti, and most Dominican fishers showed a positive attitude towards manatee conservation. The Dominican Republic is an upper middle income country with a high Human Development Index. It possesses a legal framework that specifically protects manatees, and has a greater number of marine protected areas, more dedicated manatee studies, and more manatee education and awareness campaigns than Haiti. The constant presence of manatees in specific coastal segments of the Dominican Republic, the perceived decline in the number of manatee captures, and a more conservation-minded public, offer hope for manatee conservation, as non-consumptive uses of manatees become more popular. I recommend a series of conservation actions in the Dominican Republic, including: reducing risks to manatees from harmful fishing gear and watercraft at confirmed manatee hotspots; providing alternative economic alternatives for displaced fishers, and developing responsible ecotourism ventures for manatee watching; improving law enforcement to reduce fisheries-related manatee deaths, stop the illegal trade in manatee body parts, and better protect manatee habitat; and continuing education and awareness campaigns for coastal communities near manatee hotspots.

In contrast, most fishers in Haiti continue to value manatees as a source of food and income, and showed a generally negative attitude towards manatee conservation. Haiti is a low income country with a low Human Development Index. Only a single dedicated manatee study has been conducted in Haiti, and manatees are not officially protected. Positive initiatives for manatees in Haiti include: protected areas declared in 2013 and 2014 that enclose two of the manatee hotspots identified in the present study; and local organizations that are currently working on coastal and marine environmental issues, including research and education on marine mammals. Future conservation efforts for manatees in Haiti should focus on addressing poverty and providing viable economic alternatives for coastal communities. I recommend a community partnership approach for manatee conservation, paired with education and awareness campaigns to inform coastal communities about the conservation situation of manatees in Haiti, and to help change their perceived value. Haiti should also provide legal protection for manatees and their habitat.

The distribution of meiofauna in surface sediments of the Fladen Ground, North Sea

A general study of structure, biomass, and dynamic estimates on meiofauna was carried out during PREFLEX (1975) and FLEX (1976), in 117- 141 m water depth. On the basis of these data an attempt was made to estimate meiofauna production, and this is discussed in relation to the energy input from the spring phytoplankton bloom. Sampling was performed at five stations, but only the stations 1, 4, and 5 were covered by a complete series from August 1975 to July 1976. At each station, from four replicate box core samples, two were withdrawn to study the abundance, distribution, and biomass of meiofauna, the content of chloroplastic pigment equivalents (CPE), and chemical and grain size analyses. At all stations grain size fell in the range of fine sand having median diameters (MD) of < 125 µm. From station 1 to 5 an increase in MD was observed. Highest values of CPE (7.81 µg m l**-1) and organic matter (4.7 %) were obtained in June and July (1976)/ August (1975), respectively. Meiofauna abundance was fairly uniform at all stations examined. Station 1 displayed maximal numbers during the whole investigation period. The abundance per 100 cm**2 varied between 15,550 and 34,900 organisms. All meiofauna studied both in total and as separate taxa showed annual cycles of abundance. Low abundance values were recorded during early summer, and maximum values during winter. High numbers of Foraminifera were obtained for August 1975 (9,460 per 100 cm**2) and July 1976 (9,710 per 100 cm**2). From December to June the values decreased from 3,280 to 1,030 per 100 cm**2. At station 1 maximum values of meiofauna biomass were recorded ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g DWT m**-2. The mean meiofauna dry weight amounted to 2.1 g DWT m**-2. Based on minimum production, the P/B ratio for the area of station 1 might have a mean of 1.4. Taking into consideration generation times we believe that a turnover ratio of 2 is a conservative value for the Fladen Ground meiofauna. The annual production would amount to 4.2 g DWT m**-2 yr**-1. This is 27.5 % of the energy supply during the spring phytoplankton bloom, which is channelled into the meiofauna. The hypothesis is put forward that the energetic strategy of deep offshore meiofauna differs distinctively from that of shallow inshore meiofauna. While the shallow inshore meiofauna show a relatively fast response to organic matter input, the deep offshore meiofauna reacts much more slowly, the food energy consumption seems to be spread out over a longer period.

Distribution of major carbon pools in a cyanobacterial mat from Salin de Giraud, Camargue, France

The fine-scale depth distribution of major carbon pools and their stable carbon isotopic signatures (d13C) were determined in a cyanobacterial mat (Salin-de-Giraud, Camargue, France) to study early diagenetic alterations and the carbon preservation potential in hypersaline mat ecosystems. Particular emphasis was placed on the geochemical role of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). Total carbon (Ctot), organic carbon (Corg), total nitrogen (Ntot), total hydrolysable amino acids (THAA), carbohydrates, cyanobacteria-derived hydrocarbons (8-methylhexadecane, n-heptadec-5-ene, n-heptadecane) and EPS showed highest concentrations in the top millimetre of the mat and decreased with depth. The hydrocarbons attributed to cyanobacteria showed the strongest decrease in concentration with depth. This correlated well with the depth profiles of oxygenic photosynthesis and oxygen, which were detected in the top 0.6 and 1.05 mm, respectively, at a high down-welling irradiance (1441 µmol photons m**-2 s**-1). At depths beneath the surface layer, the Corg was composed mainly of amino acids and carbohydrates. A resistance towards microbial degradation could have resulted from interactions with diverse functional groups present in biopolymers (EPS) and with minerals deposited in the mat. A 13C enrichment with depth for the total carbon pool (Ctot) was observed, with d13C values ranging from -16.3 permil at the surface to -11.3 permil at 9-10 mm depth. Total lipids depicted a d13C value of -17.2 permil in the top millimetre and then became depleted in 13C with depth (-21.7 to -23.3 permil). The d13C value of EPS varied only slightly with depth (-16.1 to -17.3 permil) and closely followed the d13C value of Corg at depths beneath 4 mm. The EPS represents an organic carbon pool of preservation potential during early stages of diagenesis in recent cyanobacterial mats as a result of a variety of possible interactions. Their analyses might improve our understanding of fossilized microbial remains from mat ecosystems.