Agent-based model to rural-urban migration analysis

In this paper, we analyze the rural-urban migration phenomenon as it is usually observed in economies which are in the early stages of industrialization. The analysis is conducted by means of a statistical mechanics approach which builds a computational agent-based model. Agents are placed on a lattice and the connections among them are described via an Ising-like model. Simulations on this computational model show some emergent properties that are common in developing economies, such as a transitional dynamics characterized by continuous growth of urban population, followed by the equalization of expected wages between rural and urban sectors (Harris-Todaro equilibrium condition), urban concentration and increasing of per capita income. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of a State-Level Pharmaceutical Assistance Program Among Urban and Rural Elders

A number of state-level pharmaceutical assistance programs have been established as a result of the growing recognition of the role of pharmaceuticals in the long-term care of the elderly. However, existing research does not provide a coherent expectation for patterns of use by rural and urban elderly. The data for this analysis are drawn from a larger study of the Pennsylvania Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly (PACE). PACE provides prescription medicines for elderly who meet income requirements. The research project was designed to assess the characteristics of PACE program participants and non-participants on a wide range of issues. Chi-square analysis and regression models were used to assess the association between rural and urban residence and access to the PACE Program. The results indicate that rural/urban status of the elderly is not a significant predictor of the use of PACE. Other traditional variables (e.g., health self-rating and physician visits) did predict difference in the pattern of use.

Hypertension control and related variables among urban and rural adults in Taiwan

Literature on hypertension treatment has demonstrated that a healthy life style is one of the best strategies for hypertension control. In exploring the mechanisms of behavioral change for hypertension control, a comprehensive study based on the Transtheoretical Model was carried out in Taiwan during the summer of 2000 with a sample of 350 hypertensive adults living in Taipei urban and rural areas. ^ The relationships among stages of change, processes of change and demographic factors were analyzed for six health behaviors—low fat food consumption, alcohol use, smoking, physical activity, weight control, and routine blood pressure checkups. In addition, differences were assessed between urban and rural populations in changing their behavior for hypertension control. ^ The results showed that rural populations had more difficulties than urban populations in avoiding smoking and engaging in physical activity, and the processes of change being used by urban populations were significantly greater than rural populations. The study findings support a strong association between processes and stages of change. ^ Individuals who use more processes of change will be more inclined to move from precontemplation stage to maintenance stage. Counterconditioning, which is the substitution of alternatives for the problem behaviors, in this study, significantly helped people to change diet, engage in physical activity, and check blood pressure regularly. For example, counterconditioning is eating more vegetables instead of meat, or engaging in physical activity as a time to relax rather than another task to accomplish. ^ In addition, self-reevaluation was the most important process for helping people to engage in physical activity; and social liberation was the most important process for changing diet behavior. The findings in this study may be applied to improve health behaviors among rural populations with low income and low education; however, at the same time, the obesity problems among urban populations should be prevented to control hypertension in Taiwan. ^

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

A phenomenological explication of dream interpretation among rural and urban Nguni people

Psychologists investigating dreams in non-Western cultures have generally not considered the meanings of dreams within the unique meaning-structure of the person in his or her societal context. The majority of dream studies in African societies are no exception. Researchers approaching dreams within rural Xhosa and Zulu speaking societies have either adopted an anthropological or a psychodynamic orientation. The latter approach particularly imposes a Western perspective in the interpretation of dream material. There have been no comparable studies of dream interpretation among urban blacks participating in the African Independent Church Movement. The present study focuses on the rural Xhosa speaking people and the urban black population who speak one of the Nguni languages and identify with the African Independent Church Movement. The study is concerned with understanding the meanings of dreams within the cultural context in which they occur. The specific aims of the study are: 1. To explicate the indigenous system of dream interpretation as revealed by acknowledged dream experts. 2. To examine the commonalities and the differences between the interpretation of dreams in two groups, drawn from a rural and urban setting respectively. 3. To elaborate upon the life-world of the participants by the interpretations gained from the above investigation. One hundred dreams and interpretations are collected from two categories of participants referred to as the Rural Group and the Urban Group. The Rural Group is made up of amagqira [traditional healers] and their clients, while the Urban Group consists of prophets and members of the African Independent Churches. Each group includes acknowledged dream experts. A phenomenological methodology is adopted in explicating the data. The methodological precedure involves a number of rigorous stages of expl ication whereby the original data is reduced to Constituent Profiles leading to the construction of a Thematic Index File. By searching and reflect ing upon the data, interpretative themes are identified. These themes are explicated to provide a rigorous description of the interpretative-reality of each group. Themes explicated w i thin the Rural Group are: the physiognomy of the dreamer's life-world as revealed by ithongo, the interpretation of ithongo as revealed through action, the dream relationship as an anticipatory mode-of-existence, iphupha as disclosing a vulnerable mode-of-being, human bodiliness as revealed in dream interpretations and the legitimation of the interpretative-reality within the life-world. Themes explicated within the Urban Group are: the phys iognomy of the dreamer's life-world revealed in their dream-existence, the interpretative-reality revealed through the enaction of dreams, tension between the newer Christian-based cosomology and the traditional cultural-based cosmology, a moral imperative, prophetic perception and human bodiliness, as revealed in dream interpretations and the legitimation of the interpretative-reality within the life-world. The essence of the interpretative-reality of both groups is very similar and is expressed in the notion of relatedness to a cosmic mode-of-being. The cosmic mode-of-being includes a numinous dimension which is expressed through divine presence in the form of ancestors, Holy Spirit or God. These notions cannot be apprehended by theoretical constructs alone but may be grasped and given form in meaning-disclosing intuitions which are expressed in the lifeworld in terms of bodiliness, revelatory knowledge, action and healing. Some differences b e tween the two groups are evident and reveal some conflict between the monotheistic Christian cosmology and the traditional cosmology. Unique aspects of the interpetative-reality of the Urban Group are expressed in terms of difficulties in the urban social environment and the notion of a moral imperative. It is observed that cul tural self-expression based upon traditional ideas continues to play a significant role in the urban environment. The apparent conflict revealed between the respective cosmologies underlies an integration of the aditional meanings with Christian concepts. This finding is consistent with the literature suggesting that the African Independent Church is a syncretic movement. The life-world is based upon the immediate and vivid experience of the numinous as revealed in the dream phenomenon. The participants' approach to dreams is not based upon an explicit theory, but upon an immediate and pathic understanding of the dream phenomenon. The understanding is based upon the interpreter's concrete understanding of the life-world, which includes the possibility of cosmic integration and continuity between the personal and transpersonal realms of being. The approach is characterized as an expression of man's primordial attunement with the cosmos. The approach of the participants to dreams may not b e consistent with a Western rational orientation, but neverthele ss, it is a valid approach . The validity is based upon the immediate life-world of experience which is intelligible, coherent, and above all, it is meaning-giving in revealing life-possibility within the context of human existence.

The effectiveness of using a simple ARIA based geographical classification to identify road crash patterns in rural and urban areas of Queensland

Research has noted a ‘pronounced pattern of increase with increasing remoteness' of death rates in road crashes. However, crash characteristics by remoteness are not commonly or consistently reported, with definitions of rural and urban often relying on proxy representations such as prevailing speed limit. The current paper seeks to evaluate the efficacy of the Accessibility / Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA+) to identifying trends in road crashes. ARIA+ does not rely on road-specific measures and uses distances to populated centres to attribute a score to an area, which can in turn be grouped into 5 classifications of increasing remoteness. The current paper uses applications of these classifications at the broad level of Australian Bureau of Statistics' Statistical Local Areas, thus avoiding precise crash locating or dedicated mapping software. Analyses used Queensland road crash database details for all 31,346 crashes resulting in a fatality or hospitalisation occurring between 1st July, 2001 and 30th June 2006 inclusive. Results showed that this simplified application of ARIA+ aligned with previous definitions such as speed limit, while also providing further delineation. Differences in crash contributing factors were noted with increasing remoteness such as a greater representation of alcohol and ‘excessive speed for circumstances.' Other factors such as the predominance of younger drivers in crashes differed little by remoteness classification. The results are discussed in terms of the utility of remoteness as a graduated rather than binary (rural/urban) construct and the potential for combining ARIA crash data with census and hospital datasets.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

The role of rural land in mixed asset investment portfolios

Rural land has not always been considered as a major long-term investment with both institutional investors and absentee owners in countries such as U.K. and Australia. Although rural land is included in both single asset and mixed asset portfolios in the U.S, it is not at the same levels as either commercial or industrial property. Rural land occupies over 50% of the total area of Australia, and comprises over 115,000 economic farm properties (excludes rural residential, hobby farms and rural lifestyle blocks. However, less than 1.6% of the total economic farm numbers are actually owned by corporate or institutional investors. This low level of corporate involvement in the Australian rural property market has limited both the investment performance research and inclusion of this rural land type in both property and mixed asset investment portfolios. In the U.S. rural land is also the most extensive real estate type based on total area occupied. The United States Department of Agriculture statistics (1998) show that in 1997 there were 2.06 million farms in the U.S., covering 968 million acres, with a total value of $912 billion and generating an annual income of $202 billion. The level of corporate ownership of farms in the U.S. is also higher than the level of corporate farm ownership in Australia. This high level of institutional ownership in rural land in U.S has provided the opportunity for the rural property asset class to be analysed in relation to it’s investment performance and possible role in a mixed asset or mixed property investment portfolio.

Total rural land performance in a free trade economy

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group Developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes and land values. This paper will analyse the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on land use and will compare the total return from rural properties based on world agricultural commodity prices.

An analysis and comparison of rural land sales

Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

Barriers to the acceptance of road safety programmes among rural road users : developing a brief intervention

Motorised countries have more fatal road crashes in rural areas than in urban areas. In Australia, over two thirds of the population live in urban areas, yet approximately 55 percent of the road fatalities occur in rural areas (ABS, 2006; Tziotis, Mabbot, Edmonston, Sheehan & Dwyer, 2005). Road and environmental factors increase the challenges of rural driving, but do not fully account for the disparity. Rural drivers are less compliant with recommendations regarding the “fatal four” behaviours of speeding, drink driving, seatbelt non-use and fatigue, and the reasons for their lower apparent receptivity for road safety messages are not well understood. Countermeasures targeting driver behaviour that have been effective in reducing road crashes in urban areas have been less successful in rural areas (FORS, 1995). However, potential barriers to receptivity for road safety information among rural road users have not been systematically investigated. This thesis aims to develop a road safety countermeasure that addresses three areas that potentially affect receptivity to rural road safety information. The first is psychological barriers of road users’ attitudes, including risk evaluation, optimism bias, locus of control and readiness to change. A second area is the timing and method of intervention delivery, which includes the production of a brief intervention and the feasibility of delivering it at a “teachable moment”. The third area under investigation is the content of the brief intervention. This study describes the process of developing an intervention that includes content to address road safety attitudes and improve safety behaviours of rural road users regarding the “fatal four”. The research commences with a review of the literature on rural road crashes, brief interventions, intervention design and implementation, and potential psychological barriers to receptivity. This literature provides a rationale for the development of a brief intervention for rural road safety with a focus on driver attitudes and behaviour. The research is then divided into four studies. The primary aim of Study One and Study Two is to investigate the receptivity of rural drivers to road safety interventions, with a view to identifying barriers to the efficacy of these strategies.

NSW rural land performance : 1990-2008

The annual income return for rural property is based on two major factors being commodity prices and production yields. Commodity prices paid to rural producers can vary depending on the agricultural policies of their respective countries. Free trade countries, such as Australia and New Zealand are subject to the volatility of the world commodity markets to a greater extent than those farmers in protected or subsidised markets. In countries where rural production is protected or subsidised the annual income received by rural producers has been relatively stable. However, the high cost of agricultural protection is now being questioned, particularly in relation to the increasing economic costs of government services such as health, education and housing. When combined with the agricultural production limitations of climate, topography, chemical residues and disease issues, the impact of commodity prices on rural property income is crucial in the ability of rural producers to enter into or expand their holdings in agricultural land. These problems are then reflected in the volatility of the rural land capital returns and the investment performance of this property class. This paper will address the total and capital return performance of a major agricultural area and compare these returns on the basis of both location of land and land use. The comparison will be used to determine if location or actual land use has a greater influence on rural property capital returns. This performance analysis is based on over 35,000 rural sales transactions. These transactions cover all market based rural property transactions in New South Wales, Australia for the period January 1990 to December 2008. Correlation analysis and investment performance analysis has also been carried out to determine the possible relationships between location and land use and subsequent changes in rural land capital values.

Property damage crash equivalency factors to solve crash frequency-severity dilemma: Case study on South Korean rural roads

Safety interventions (e.g., median barriers, photo enforcement) and road features (e.g., median type and width) can influence crash severity, crash frequency, or both. Both dimensions—crash frequency and crash severity—are needed to obtain a full accounting of road safety. Extensive literature and common sense both dictate that crashes are not created equal, with fatalities costing society more than 1,000 times the cost of property damage crashes on average. Despite this glaring disparity, the profession has not unanimously embraced or successfully defended a nonarbitrary severity weighting approach for analyzing safety data and conducting safety analyses. It is argued here that the two dimensions (frequency and severity) are made available by intelligently and reliably weighting crash frequencies and converting all crashes to property-damage-only crash equivalents (PDOEs) by using comprehensive societal unit crash costs. This approach is analogous to calculating axle load equivalents in the prediction of pavement damage: for instance, a 40,000-lb truck causes 4,025 times more stress than does a 4,000-lb car and so simply counting axles is not sufficient. Calculating PDOEs using unit crash costs is the most defensible and nonarbitrary weighting scheme, allows for the simple incorporation of severity and frequency, and leads to crash models that are sensitive to factors that affect crash severity. Moreover, using PDOEs diminishes the errors introduced by underreporting of less severe crashes—an added benefit of the PDOE analysis approach. The method is illustrated with rural road segment data from South Korea (which in practice would develop PDOEs with Korean crash cost data).