Conditioned food aversion to Ipomoea carnea var. fistulosa induced by Baccharis coridifolia in goats

Baccharis coridifolia is a plant that induces strong conditioned food aversion in ruminants. This research aimed to induce a conditioned food aversion to Ipomoea carnea var. fistulosa in goats, using B. coridifolia as an aversive agent, and to compare the aversion induced by this plant with the aversion induced by lithium chloride (LiCl). Thirteen goats were allotted into two groups: Group 1 with six goats was averted with 175mg/kg of body weight of LiCl and Group 2 with seven goats was averted with 0,25g/kg of bw of dried B. coridifolia. All goats were averted on day 1 after the ingestion of I. carnea. The aversion procedure with LiCl or B. coridifolia in goats from Groups 1 and 2, respectively, was repeated in those goats that again consumed the plant during tests on days 2, 3, and 7. The goats of both groups were challenged in pens on 23 and 38 days after the last day of aversion and challenged in the pasture on days 11, 15, 18, 20, 22, 25, 27 and 29 after the last day of aversion. After this period goats were challenged every 15 days on pasture until the 330º day after the last day of aversion (7th day). Two goats from Group 1 ingested I. carnea on the first day of the pasture challenge, 4 days after the last day of aversive conditioning in the pen. In addition, another goat in Group 1 started to consume the plant on day 18, and other two goats ate it on day 20. One goat in Group 1 that had never eaten I. carnea died on day 155. One goat from Group 2 started to ingest I. carnea on the first day of the pasture challenge, and a second goat started to consume this plant on day 182. At the end of the experiment, on day 330, the other five goats averted with B. coridifolia remained averted. These results suggest that B. coridifolia or an active compound from the plant could be used to induce aversion to toxic plants. Using B. coridifolia would be cheaper and, particularly in flocks with large number of animals, possibly easier than using LiCl, which requires the use of oral gavage and qualified personnel for its implementation.

Incest aversion : the evolutionary roots of individual regulation

Den evolutionära förklaringen till den allmänt utbredda incestaversionen, dvs. motviljan för sex med nära släktingar, försöker besvara såväl frågan om varför incestaversionen gynnats i det naturliga urvalet som frågan om hur denna aversion regleras på individuell nivå. Eftersom inavlade barn har en försämrad biologisk duglighet än andra barn, medför kostnaderna av denna icke-optimala reproduktion ett selektionstryck mot inavel. I en serie studier visade vi att eftersom kvinnor i allmänhet satsar mer biologiska resurser på sina barn än vad män gör, känner kvinnor starkare incestaversion än män och eftersom det endast är fertila kvinnor som riskerar satsa resurser i en inavlad avkomma har även fertila kvinnor högre incestaversion än icke-fertila kvinnor. Vi visade också att de biologiska kostnaderna av inavel inte begränsas till enbart de individer som har incest. Eftersom alla våra biologiska släktingar sannolikt delar våra alleler speglar incestaversionen även de biologiska kostnader som incest mellan våra släktingar medför åt oss. Den psykologiska mekanism med vilken incestsituationer bedöms har hittills varit okänd. I våra studier testades teorin om självreflekterande empati. Enligt den teorin bedöms sådana situationer emotionellt genom att man själv föreställer sig ha sex med motsvarande släkting och känslan som väcks i denna process ger därefter emotionell information till bedömningen av andras incest. I tre delstudier fann vi att självreflektion var positivt associerat med styrkan av aversion gentemot andras incest, vilket stöder teorin om självreflekterande empati.

Mitigating uncertainty in logistics outsourcing with ERP systems

Outsourcing is a common strategy for companies looking for cost savings and improvements in performance. This has been especially prevalent in logistics, where warehousing and transporting are typical targets for outsourcing. However, while the benefits from logistics outsourcing are clear on paper, there are several cases companies fail to reach these benefits. The most commonly cited reasons for this are poor information flow between the company and the third party logistics partner, and a lack of integration between the two partners. Uncertainty stems from lack of information, and it can cripple the whole outsourcing operation. This is where enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems step in, as they can have a significant role in improving the flow of information, and integration, which consequently mitigates uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to examine if ERP systems have an effect on a company's decision to outsource logistics operations. Along the rapid advancements in technology during the past decades, ERP systems have also evolved. Therefore, empirical research on the subject needs constant revision as it can quickly become outdated due to ERP systems having more advanced capabilities every year. The research was conducted using a qualitative single-case study of a Finnish manufacturing firm that had outsourced warehousing and transportation operations in the Swedish market. The empirical data was gathered with use of semi-structured interviews with three employees from the case company that were closely related to the outsourcing operation. The theoretical framework that was used to analyze the empirical data was based on Transaction Cost Economics theory. The results of the study were align with the theoretical framework, in that the ERP system of the case company was seen as an enabler for their logistics outsourcing operation. However, the full theoretical benefits from ERP systems concerning extended enterprise functionality and flexibility were not attained due to the case company having an older version of their ERP system. This emphasizes the importance of having up-to-date technology if you want to overcome the shortcomings of ERP systems in outsourcing situations.

Uncertainty of Efficiency Measurements in Electric Drives

The two central goals of this master's thesis are to serve as a guidebook on the determination of uncertainty in efficiency measurements and to investigate sources of uncertainty in efficiency measurements in the field of electric drives by a literature review, mathematical modeling and experimental means. The influence of individual sources of uncertainty on the total instrumental uncertainty is investigated with the help of mathematical models derived for a balance and a direct air cooled calorimeter. The losses of a frequency converter and an induction motor are measured with the input-output method and a balance calorimeter at 50 and 100 % loads. A software linking features of Matlab and Excel is created to process measurement data, calculate uncertainties and to calculate and visualize results. The uncertainties are combined with both the worst case and the realistic perturbation method and distributions of uncertainty by source are shown based on experimental results. A comparison of the calculated uncertainties suggests that the balance calorimeter determines losses more accurately than the input-output method with a relative RPM uncertainty of 1.46 % compared to 3.78 - 12.74 % respectively with 95 % level of confidence at the 93 % induction motor efficiency or higher. As some principles in uncertainty analysis are open to interpretation the views and decisions of the analyst can have noticeable influence on the uncertainty in the measurement result.

Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

Opportunity meets uncertainty. Towards sustainable business in the Arctic region

The Arctic region is experiencing a significant change in terms of climate change and a growing economic interest towards its natural resources and emerging business opportunities. The purpose of this study is to explore how can Finnish companies create sustainable business in the Arctic. This is done by examining the arctic business environment, identifying sectors with growth potential, addressing challenges related to operating in the Arctic and suggesting how to ensure sustainability and succeed in the globally competed arctic market. The theoretical framework is based on theories of sustainable development, corporate social responsibility and the role of strategy in creating sustainable business. Empirical data was collected by using qualitative research methods: first, background knowledge was formed based on written documents and, secondly, six expert interviews were conducted in early 2014. The interviewees represented the viewpoints of companies, political decision makers and NGO’s. The analysis of the data was conducted using thematic categorization. The empirical findings of the study suggest that in order to create sustainable business in the Arctic companies should adopt a long-term perspective, embrace a holistic approach to sustainability, understand interdependencies between the dimensions of sustainability and aim at high-level engagement in responsible behavior. To succeed in the arctic market core competencies, customer needs, multivendor cooperation and long-term presence need to be invested in on a company level. In addition, to promote and advance arctic development on a national level support is needed in terms of investments in infrastructure, funding research and design, creating a regulative framework and removing barriers of trade.

Scales, networks and uncertainty : an examination of environmental policy-making in Ontario

Through a case-study analysis of Ontario's ethanol policy, this thesis addresses a number of themes that are consequential to policy and policy-making: spatiality, democracy and uncertainty. First, I address the 'spatial debate' in Geography pertaining to the relevance and affordances of a 'scalar' versus a 'flat' ontoepistemology. I argue that policy is guided by prior arrangements, but is by no means inevitable or predetermined. As such, scale and network are pragmatic geographical concepts that can effectively address the issue of the spatiality of policy and policy-making. Second, I discuss the democratic nature of policy-making in Ontario through an examination of the spaces of engagement that facilitate deliberative democracy. I analyze to what extent these spaces fit into Ontario's environmental policy-making process, and to what extent they were used by various stakeholders. Last, I take seriously the fact that uncertainty and unavoidable injustice are central to policy, and examine the ways in which this uncertainty shaped the specifics of Ontario's ethanol policy. Ultimately, this thesis is an exercise in understanding sub-national environmental policy-making in Canada, with an emphasis on how policy-makers tackle the issues they are faced with in the context of environmental change, political-economic integration, local priorities, individual goals, and irreducible uncertainty.

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

A Survey Measure of Risk Aversion

We Use Survey Data on the Well-Being of Individuals to Measure Attitude Toward Risk. Risk Neutrality Cannot Be Rejected by the Data.

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing

This paper develops a general stochastic framework and an equilibrium asset pricing model that make clear how attitudes towards intertemporal substitution and risk matter for option pricing. In particular, we show under which statistical conditions option pricing formulas are not preference-free, in other words, when preferences are not hidden in the stock and bond prices as they are in the standard Black and Scholes (BS) or Hull and White (HW) pricing formulas. The dependence of option prices on preference parameters comes from several instantaneous causality effects such as the so-called leverage effect. We also emphasize that the most standard asset pricing models (CAPM for the stock and BS or HW preference-free option pricing) are valid under the same stochastic setting (typically the absence of leverage effect), regardless of preference parameter values. Even though we propose a general non-preference-free option pricing formula, we always keep in mind that the BS formula is dominant both as a theoretical reference model and as a tool for practitioners. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize why the BS formula is such a benchmark. We show that, as soon as we are ready to accept a basic property of option prices, namely their homogeneity of degree one with respect to the pair formed by the underlying stock price and the strike price, the necessary statistical hypotheses for homogeneity provide BS-shaped option prices in equilibrium. This BS-shaped option-pricing formula allows us to derive interesting characterizations of the volatility smile, that is, the pattern of BS implicit volatilities as a function of the option moneyness. First, the asymmetry of the smile is shown to be equivalent to a particular form of asymmetry of the equivalent martingale measure. Second, this asymmetry appears precisely when there is either a premium on an instantaneous interest rate risk or on a generalized leverage effect or both, in other words, whenever the option pricing formula is not preference-free. Therefore, the main conclusion of our analysis for practitioners should be that an asymmetric smile is indicative of the relevance of preference parameters to price options.

Aversion Analysis

In this paper : a) the consumer’s problem is studied over two periods, the second one involving S states, and the consumer being endowed with S+1 incomes and having access to N financial assets; b) the consumer is then representable by a continuously differentiable system of demands, commodity demands, asset demands and desirabilities of incomes (the S+1 Lagrange multiplier of the S+1 constraints); c) the multipliers can be transformed into subjective Arrow prices; d) the effects of the various incomes on these Arrow prices decompose into a compensation effect (an Antonelli matrix) and a wealth effect; e) the Antonelli matrix has rank S-N, the dimension of incompleteness, if the consumer can financially adjust himself when facing income shocks; f) the matrix has rank S, if not; g) in the first case, the matrix represents a residual aversion; in the second case, a fundamental aversion; the difference between them is an aversion to illiquidity; this last relation corresponds to the Drèze-Modigliani decomposition (1972); h) the fundamental aversion decomposes also into an aversion to impatience and a risk aversion; i) the above decompositions span a third decomposition; if there exists a sure asset (to be defined, the usual definition being too specific), the fundamental aversion admits a three-component decomposition, an aversion to impatience, a residual aversion and an aversion to the illiquidity of risky assets; j) the formulas of the corresponding financial premiums are also presented.