A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Statistical evaluation of time-dependent metabolite concentrations: estimation of post-mortem intervals based on in situ 1H-MRS of the brain

Knowledge of the time interval from death (post-mortem interval, PMI) has an enormous legal, criminological and psychological impact. Aiming to find an objective method for the determination of PMIs in forensic medicine, 1H-MR spectroscopy (1H-MRS) was used in a sheep head model to follow changes in brain metabolite concentrations after death. Following the characterization of newly observed metabolites (Ith et al., Magn. Reson. Med. 2002; 5: 915-920), the full set of acquired spectra was analyzed statistically to provide a quantitative estimation of PMIs with their respective confidence limits. In a first step, analytical mathematical functions are proposed to describe the time courses of 10 metabolites in the decomposing brain up to 3 weeks post-mortem. Subsequently, the inverted functions are used to predict PMIs based on the measured metabolite concentrations. Individual PMIs calculated from five different metabolites are then pooled, being weighted by their inverse variances. The predicted PMIs from all individual examinations in the sheep model are compared with known true times. In addition, four human cases with forensically estimated PMIs are compared with predictions based on single in situ MRS measurements. Interpretation of the individual sheep examinations gave a good correlation up to 250 h post-mortem, demonstrating that the predicted PMIs are consistent with the data used to generate the model. Comparison of the estimated PMIs with the forensically determined PMIs in the four human cases shows an adequate correlation. Current PMI estimations based on forensic methods typically suffer from uncertainties in the order of days to weeks without mathematically defined confidence information. In turn, a single 1H-MRS measurement of brain tissue in situ results in PMIs with defined and favorable confidence intervals in the range of hours, thus offering a quantitative and objective method for the determination of PMIs.

Time-dependent hierarchical organization of spatial working memory: a transcranial magnetic stimulation study

The performance of memory-guided saccades with two different delays (3 and 30 s of memorization) was studied in seven healthy subjects. Double-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (dTMS) with an interstimulus interval of 100 ms was applied over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) early (1 s after target presentation) and late (28 s after target presentation). Early stimulation significantly increased in both delays the percentage of error in amplitude (PEA) of contralateral memory-guided saccades compared to the control experiment without stimulation. dTMS applied late in the delay had no significant effect on PEA. Furthermore, we found a significantly smaller effect of early stimulation in the long-delay paradigm. These results suggest a time-dependent hierarchical organization of the spatial working memory with a functional dominance of DLPFC during the early memorization, independent from the memorization delay. For a long memorization delay, however, working memory seems to have an additional, DLPFC-independent component.

Radiation metabolomics. 2. Dose- and time-dependent urinary excretion of deaminated purines and pyrimidines after sublethal gamma-radiation exposure in mice

Gamma-radiation exposure of humans is a major public health concern as the threat of terrorism and potential hostile use of radiological devices increases worldwide. We report here the effects of sublethal gamma-radiation exposure on the mouse urinary metabolome determined using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-coupled time-of-flight mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. Five urinary biomarkers of sublethal radiation exposure that were statistically significantly elevated during the first 24 h after exposure to doses ranging from 1 to 3 Gy were unequivocally identified by tandem mass spectrometry. These are deaminated purine and pyrimidine derivatives, namely, thymidine, 2'-deoxyuridine, 2'-deoxyxanthosine, xanthine and xanthosine. Furthermore, the aminopyrimidine 2'-deoxycytidine appeared to display reduced urinary excretion at 2 and 3 Gy. The elevated biomarkers displayed a time-dependent excretion, peaking in urine at 8-12 h but returning to baseline by 36 h after exposure. It is proposed that 2'-deoxyuridine and 2'-deoxyxanthosine arise as a result of gamma irradiation by nitrosative deamination of 2'-deoxycytidine and 2'-deoxyguanosine, respectively, and that this further leads to increased synthesis of thymidine, xanthine and xanthosine. The urinary excretion of deaminated purines and pyrimidines, at the expense of aminopurines and aminopyrimidines, appears to form the core of the urinary radiation metabolomic signature of mice exposed to sublethal doses of ionizing radiation.

Delay in diagnosis of eosinophilic esophagitis increases risk for stricture formation in a time-dependent manner

BACKGROUND & AIMS Development of strictures is a major concern for patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). At diagnosis, EoE can present with an inflammatory phenotype (characterized by whitish exudates, furrows, and edema), a stricturing phenotype (characterized by rings and stenosis), or a combination of these. Little is known about progression of stricture formation; we evaluated stricture development over time in the absence of treatment and investigated risk factors for stricture formation. METHODS We performed a retrospective study using the Swiss EoE Database, collecting data on 200 patients with symptomatic EoE (153 men; mean age at diagnosis, 39 ± 15 years old). Stricture severity was graded based on the degree of difficulty associated with passing of the standard adult endoscope. RESULTS The median delay in diagnosis of EoE was 6 years (interquartile range, 2-12 years). With increasing duration of delay in diagnosis, the prevalence of fibrotic features of EoE, based on endoscopy, increased from 46.5% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 87.5% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P = .020). Similarly, the prevalence of esophageal strictures increased with duration of diagnostic delay, from 17.2% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 70.8% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P < .001). Diagnostic delay was the only risk factor for strictures at the time of EoE diagnosis (odds ratio = 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.040-1.122; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of esophageal strictures correlates with the duration of untreated disease. These findings indicate the need to minimize delay in diagnosis of EoE.

Age-of-onset-dependent influence of NOD2 gene variants on disease behaviour and treatment in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND: Influence of genetic variants in the NOD2 gene may play a more important role in disease activity, behaviour and treatment of pediatric- than adult-onset Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: 85 pediatric- and 117 adult-onset CD patients were tested for the three main NOD2 CD-associated variants (p.R702W, p.G908R and p.10007fs) and clinical data of at least two years of follow-up were compared regarding disease behaviour and activity, response to therapy and bone mineral density (BMD). RESULTS: Chronic active and moderate to severe course of CD is associated in patients with pediatric-onset (p=0.0001) and NOD2 variant alleles (p=0.0001). In pediatric-onset CD the average PCDAI-Score was significantly higher in patients carrying NOD2 variants (p=0.0008). In addition, underweight during course of the disease (p=0.012) was associated with NOD2 variants. Interestingly, osteoporosis was found more frequently in patients carrying NOD2 variant alleles (p=0.033), especially in pediatric-onset CD patients with homozygous NOD2 variants (p=0.037). Accordingly, low BMD in pediatric-onset CD is associated with a higher PCDAI (p=0.0092), chronic active disease (p=0.0148), underweight at diagnosis (p=0.0271) and during follow-up (p=0.0109). Furthermore, pediatric-onset CD patients with NOD2 variants are more frequently steroid-dependent or refractory (p=0.048) and need long-term immunosuppressive therapy (p=0.0213). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggests that the presence of any of the main NOD2 variants in CD is associated with osteoporosis and an age of onset dependent influence towards underweight, higher disease activity and a more intensive immunosuppressive therapy. This observation supports the idea for an early intensive treatment strategy in children and adolescent CD patients with NOD2 gene variants.

Time-dependent and somatically acquired mitochondrial DNA mutagenesis and respiratory chain dysfunction in a scleroderma model of lung fibrosis.

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) have been implemented in the etiology of pulmonary fibrosis (PF) in systemic sclerosis. In the bleomycin model, we evaluated the role of acquired mutations in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and respiratory chain defects as a trigger of ROS formation and fibrogenesis. Adult male Wistar rats received a single intratracheal instillation of bleomycin and their lungs were examined at different time points. Ashcroft scores, collagen and TGFβ1 levels documented a delayed onset of PF by day 14. In contrast, increased malon dialdehyde as a marker of ROS formation was detectable as early as 24 hours after bleomycin instillation and continued to increase. At day 7, lung tissue acquired significant amounts of mtDNA deletions, translating into a significant dysfunction of mtDNA-encoded, but not nucleus-encoded respiratory chain subunits. mtDNA deletions and markers of mtDNA-encoded respiratory chain dysfunction significantly correlated with pulmonary TGFβ1 concentrations and predicted PF in a multivariate model.

Flavor tagged time-dependent angular analysis of the B0s → J/ψΦ decay and extraction of Δ Γs and the weak phase Φs in ATLAS

A measurement of the B 0 s →J/ψϕ decay parameters, updated to include flavor tagging is reported using 4.9  fb −1 of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector from s √ =7  TeV pp collisions recorded in 2011 at the LHC. The values measured for the physical parameters are ϕ s 0.12±0.25(stat)±0.05(syst)  rad ΔΓ s 0.053±0.021(stat)±0.010(syst)  ps −1 Γ s 0.677±0.007(stat)±0.004(syst)  ps −1 |A ∥ (0)| 2 0.220±0.008(stat)±0.009(syst) |A 0 (0)| 2 0.529±0.006(stat)±0.012(syst) δ ⊥ =3.89±0.47(stat)±0.11(syst)  rad where the parameter ΔΓ s is constrained to be positive. The S -wave contribution was measured and found to be compatible with zero. Results for ϕ s and ΔΓ s are also presented as 68% and 95% likelihood contours, which show agreement with the Standard Model expectations.