Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Machine ethics via logic programming

Machine ethics is an interdisciplinary field of inquiry that emerges from the need of imbuing autonomous agents with the capacity of moral decision-making. While some approaches provide implementations in Logic Programming (LP) systems, they have not exploited LP-based reasoning features that appear essential for moral reasoning. This PhD thesis aims at investigating further the appropriateness of LP, notably a combination of LP-based reasoning features, including techniques available in LP systems, to machine ethics. Moral facets, as studied in moral philosophy and psychology, that are amenable to computational modeling are identified, and mapped to appropriate LP concepts for representing and reasoning about them. The main contributions of the thesis are twofold. First, novel approaches are proposed for employing tabling in contextual abduction and updating – individually and combined – plus a LP approach of counterfactual reasoning; the latter being implemented on top of the aforementioned combined abduction and updating technique with tabling. They are all important to model various issues of the aforementioned moral facets. Second, a variety of LP-based reasoning features are applied to model the identified moral facets, through moral examples taken off-the-shelf from the morality literature. These applications include: (1) Modeling moral permissibility according to the Doctrines of Double Effect (DDE) and Triple Effect (DTE), demonstrating deontological and utilitarian judgments via integrity constraints (in abduction) and preferences over abductive scenarios; (2) Modeling moral reasoning under uncertainty of actions, via abduction and probabilistic LP; (3) Modeling moral updating (that allows other – possibly overriding – moral rules to be adopted by an agent, on top of those it currently follows) via the integration of tabling in contextual abduction and updating; and (4) Modeling moral permissibility and its justification via counterfactuals, where counterfactuals are used for formulating DDE.

Logic programming and artificial neural networks in breast cancer detection

About 90% of breast cancers do not cause or are capable of producing death if detected at an early stage and treated properly. Indeed, it is still not known a specific cause for the illness. It may be not only a beginning, but also a set of associations that will determine the onset of the disease. Undeniably, there are some factors that seem to be associated with the boosted risk of the malady. Pondering the present study, different breast cancer risk assessment models where considered. It is our intention to develop a hybrid decision support system under a formal framework based on Logic Programming for knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks, to evaluate the risk of developing breast cancer and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such a happening.

Spatial-temporal modellization of the NO2 concentration data through geostatistical tools

The nitrogen dioxide is a primary pollutant, regarded for the estimation of the air quality index, whose excessive presence may cause significant environmental and health problems. In the current work, we suggest characterizing the evolution of NO2 levels, by using geostatisti- cal approaches that deal with both the space and time coordinates. To develop our proposal, a first exploratory analysis was carried out on daily values of the target variable, daily measured in Portugal from 2004 to 2012, which led to identify three influential covariates (type of site, environment and month of measurement). In a second step, appropriate geostatistical tools were applied to model the trend and the space-time variability, thus enabling us to use the kriging techniques for prediction, without requiring data from a dense monitoring network. This method- ology has valuable applications, as it can provide accurate assessment of the nitrogen dioxide concentrations at sites where either data have been lost or there is no monitoring station nearby.

A bio-inspired computational model for motion detection

Tese de Doutoramento (Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Biomédica)

Mecanismos de Fotopercepción No-Visual y Control Circadiano en la Retina Interna de Vertebrados en Condiciones Fisiológicas y en un Modelo Animal de Ceguera. Mechanisms of Non-visual Perception and Circadian Control in the Vertebrate Inner Retina under Physiological Conditions and in Animal Model of Blindness.

La retina juega un rol esencial en el funcionamiento del sistema circadiano de los vertebrados al ser la encargada de sensar las condiciones de iluminación ambiental que ajustan el reloj interno con el fotoperíodo exterior a través de un circuito no-visual. Este circuito es independiente de la vía de formación de imágenes e involucra a las células ganglionares retinianas (CGRs) que proyectan a varias estructuras no-visuales del cerebro; esta vía es la encargada de regular el reflejo pupilar, la sincronización de los ritmos diarios de actividad, el sueño y la supresión de melatonina pineal. La retina contiene además un reloj autónomo que genera ritmos diarios autosostenidos en distintas funciones bioquímicas y fisiológicas, que le confiere la capacidad de predecir el tiempo y anticiparse en su fisiología a los cambios lumínicos a lo largo del ciclo día-noche. Este laboratorio ha demostrado por 1ra vez que las CGRs de pollo poseen osciladores endógenos que generan variaciones diarias en la biosíntesis de fosfolípidos (Guido et al, J Neurochem. 2001; Garbarino et al., J Neurosci Res. 2004a) y de la hormona melatonina con niveles máximos durante el día (Garbarino et al., J Biol Chem 2004b). Aún más, cultivos primarios de CGRs responden a la luz a través de una cascada bioquímica de fototransducción similar a la de invertebrados y que involucra la activación de la enzima fosfolipasa C (PLC) (Contin et al., FASEB J 2006). Estos cultivos fueron obtenidos a estadios embrionarios muy tempranos en dónde solo las CGRs son postmitóticas y mayoritariamente maduras. A estos estadios, los cultivos expresan marcadores de especificación de células ganglionares (pax6, brn3), la proteina Gq y los fotopigmentos melanopsina y criptocromos con gran homología con marcadores descriptos para fotorreceptores rabdoméricos de invertebrados (Contin et al, 2006). Recientemente comenzamos a investigar la percepción de luz en pollos GUCY1*, un modelo de ceguera, en animales que carecen de células fotorreceptoras-conos y bastones-funcionales. Resultados preliminares indicarían que la retina interna, y potencialmente las CGRs de estos animales conservarían la capacidad de responder a la luz regulando el reflejo pupilar y sincronizando los ritmos diarios de alimentación. La convergencia de osciladores y fotopigmentos en la población de CGRs podría contribuir al control temporal de la fisiología del organismo y regulación de funciones no-visuales. Son objetivos de este proyecto: a) Investigar el rol de las CGRs en el sistema circadiano estudiando: i- su habilidad para sintetizar melatonina y, su regulación por luz y dopamina; ii- su capacidad fotorreceptora intrínseca, investigando la presencia de fotopigmentos y componentes de la cascada de fototransducción fundamentalmente la vía de los fosfoinosítidos y la activación de PLC, mediante ensayos moleculares, bioquímicos y farmacológicos; b) Extender estos estudios a cultivos primarios de CGRs inmunopurificadas midiendo la respuesta a la luz sobre la síntesis de melatonina, y los niveles de los mensajeros 2rios Ca2+ y AMP cíclico, la inducción de genes tempranos y la regulación de la actividad NAT, enzima clave en la síntesis de melatonina; y c) Investigar la percepción de luz en pollos GUCY1*(ciegos), sobre distintas funciones no-visuales tales como el reflejo pupilar, la sincronización de los ritmos diarios de alimentación, la síntesis de melatonina y la expresión génica en animales expuestos a estimulación lumínica de distintas intensidades y longitudes de onda. Estos estudios permitirán construir el espectro de acción de la respuesta a la luz en los pollos ciegos a fin de identificar el/los fotopigmentos intervinientes en este fenómeno. Este proyecto profundizará el conocimiento sobre la capacidad fotorreceptora-no visual de la retina interna y particularmente de las CGRs, de la naturaleza de la cascada bioquímica que opera en las mismas y de los mecanismos de regeneración del cromóforo utilizado.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Reduced fronto-temporal and limbic connectivity in the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: vulnerability markers for developing schizophrenia?

The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) is a widely recognized genetic model allowing the study of neuroanatomical biomarkers that underlie the risk for developing schizophrenia. Recent advances in magnetic resonance image analyses enable the examination of structural connectivity integrity, scarcely used in the 22q11DS field. This framework potentially provides evidence for the disconnectivity hypothesis of schizophrenia in this high-risk population. In the present study, we quantify the whole brain white matter connections in 22q11DS using deterministic tractography. Diffusion Tensor Imaging was acquired in 30 affected patients and 30 age- and gender-matched healthy participants. The Human Connectome technique was applied to register white matter streamlines with cortical anatomy. The number of fibers (streamlines) was used as a measure of connectivity for comparison between groups at the global, lobar and regional level. All statistics were corrected for age and gender. Results showed a 10% reduction of the total number of fibers in patients compared to controls. After correcting for this global reduction, preserved connectivity was found within the right frontal and right parietal lobes. The relative increase in the number of fibers was located mainly in the right hemisphere. Conversely, an excessive reduction of connectivity was observed within and between limbic structures. Finally, a disproportionate reduction was shown at the level of fibers connecting the left fronto-temporal regions. We could therefore speculate that the observed disruption to fronto-temporal connectivity in individuals at risk of schizophrenia implies that fronto-temporal disconnectivity, frequently implicated in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, could precede the onset of symptoms and, as such, constitutes a biomarker of the vulnerability to develop psychosis. On the contrary, connectivity alterations in the limbic lobe play a role in a wide range of psychiatric disorders and therefore seem to be less specific in defining schizophrenia.

A two-compartment mathematical model of neuroglial metabolism using [1-(11)C] acetate.

The purpose of this study was to develop a two-compartment metabolic model of brain metabolism to assess oxidative metabolism from [1-(11)C] acetate radiotracer experiments, using an approach previously applied in (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), and compared with an one-tissue compartment model previously used in brain [1-(11)C] acetate studies. Compared with (13)C MRS studies, (11)C radiotracer measurements provide a single uptake curve representing the sum of all labeled metabolites, without chemical differentiation, but with higher temporal resolution. The reliability of the adjusted metabolic fluxes was analyzed with Monte-Carlo simulations using synthetic (11)C uptake curves, based on a typical arterial input function and previously published values of the neuroglial fluxes V(tca)(g), V(x), V(nt), and V(tca)(n) measured in dynamic (13)C MRS experiments. Assuming V(x)(g)=10 × V(tca)(g) and V(x)(n)=V(tca)(n), it was possible to assess the composite glial tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle flux V(gt)(g) (V(gt)(g)=V(x)(g) × V(tca)(g)/(V(x)(g)+V(tca)(g))) and the neurotransmission flux V(nt) from (11)C tissue-activity curves obtained within 30 minutes in the rat cortex with a beta-probe after a bolus infusion of [1-(11)C] acetate (n=9), resulting in V(gt)(g)=0.136±0.042 and V(nt)=0.170±0.103 μmol/g per minute (mean±s.d. of the group), in good agreement with (13)C MRS measurements.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Creació i transmissió de coneixement als clústers empresarials: un model de simulació

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Snider Entrepreneurial Research Center de la Wharton School de la University of Pennsilvanya y, EUA entre juliol i desembre del 2007. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la relació entre les estratègies de gestió del coneixement i les tecnologies de la informació i la comunicació (TIC) en l’evolució de les poblacions d’organitzacions i els seus efectes en els patrons industrials d’aglomeració espacial. Per a això s’adopta una aproximació fonamentada en la utilització d'un model basats en agents per a obtenir hipòtesis significatives i provables sobre l’evolució de les poblacions d’organitzacions al si de clústers geogràfics. El model de simulació incorpora les perspectives i supòsits d’un marc conceptual, l’Espai de la Informació o I-Space. Això permet una conceptualització basada en la informació de l’entorn econòmic que té en compte les seves dimensions espacials i temporals. Mitjançant els paràmetres del model es dóna la possibilitat d’assignar estratègies específiques de gestió del coneixement als diversos agents i de localitzar-los en una posició de l’espai físic. La simulació mostra com l'adopció d'estratègies diverses pel que fa a la gestió del coneixement influeix en l'evolució de les organitzacions i de la seva localització espacial, i que aquesta evolució es veu modificada pel desenvolupament de les TIC. A través de la modelització de dos casos ben coneguts de clústers geogràfics d’alta tecnologia, com són Silicon Valley a Califòrnia i la Route 128 als voltants de Boston, s’estudia la interrelació entre les estratègies de gestió del coneixement adoptades per les empreses i la seva tria de localització espacial, i també com això és afectat per l’evolució de les tecnologies de la informació i de la comunicació (TIC). Els resultats obtinguts generen una sèrie d’hipòtesis de rica potencialitat sobre l’impacte del desenvolupament de les TIC en la dinàmica d’aquests clusters geogràfics. Concretament, es troba que la estructuració del coneixement i l’aglomeració espacial co-evolucionen i que aquesta coevolució es veu significativament alterada pel desenvolupament de les TIC.

Arrhythmogenesis in the developing heart during anoxia-reoxygenation and hypothermia-rewarming: an in vitro model.

INTRODUCTION: The spatio-temporal pattern of arrhythmias in the embryonic/fetal heart subjected to a transient hypoxic or hypothermic stress remains to be established. METHODS AND RESULTS: Spontaneously beating hearts or isolated atria, ventricles, and conotruncus from 4-day-old chick embryos were subjected in vitro to 30-minute anoxia and 60-minute reoxygenation. Hearts were also submitted to 30-minute hypothermia (0-4 degrees C) and 60-minute rewarming. ECG disturbances and alterations of atrial and ventricular electromechanical delay (EMD) were systematically investigated. Baseline functional parameters were stable during at least 2 hours. Anoxia induced tachycardia, followed by bradycardia, atrial ectopy, first-, second-, and third-degree atrio-ventricular blocks and, finally, transient electromechanical arrest after 6.8 minutes, interquartile ranges (IQR) 3.1-16.2 (n = 8). Reoxygenation triggered also Wenckebach phenomenon and ventricular escape beats. At the onset of reoxygenation QT, PR, and ventricular EMD increased by 68%, 70%, and 250%, respectively, whereas atrial EMD was not altered. No fibrillations, no ventricular ectopic beats, and no electromechanical dissociation were observed. Arrhythmic activity of the isolated atria persisted throughout anoxia and upon reoxygenation, whereas activity of the isolated ventricles abruptly ceased after 5 minutes of anoxia and resumed after 5 minutes of reoxygenation. During hypothermia-rewarming, cardiac activity stopped at 17.9 degrees C, IQR 16.2-20.6 (n = 4) and resumed at the same temperature with no arrhythmias. All preparations fully recovered after 40 minutes of reoxygenation or rewarming. CONCLUSION: In the embryonic heart, arrhythmias mainly originated in the sinoatrial tissue and resembled those observed in the adult heart. Furthermore, oxygen readmission was by far more arrhythmogenic than rewarming and the chronotropic, dromotropic, and inotropic effects were fully reversible.

Interhemispheric coupling between the posterior sylvian regions impacts successful auditory temporal order judgment

Introduction: Accurate registration of the relative timing between the occurrence of sensory events on a sub-second time scale is crucial for both sensory-motor and cognitive functions (Mauk and Buonomano, 2004; Habib, 2000). Support for this assumption comes notably from evidence that temporal processing impairments are implicated in a range of neurological and psychiatric conditions (e.g. Buhusi & Meck, 2005). For instance, deficits in fast auditory temporal integration have been regularly put forward as resulting in phonologic discrimination impairments at the basis of speech comprehension deficits characterizing e.g. dyslexia (Habib, 2000). At least two aspects of the brain mechanisms of temporal order judgment remain unknown. First, it is unknown when during the course of stimulus processing a temporal ,,stamp‟ is established to guide TOJ perception. Second, the extent of interplay between the cerebral hemispheres in engendering accurate TOJ performance is unresolved Methods: We investigated the spatiotemporal brain dynamics of auditory temporal order judgment (aTOJ) using electrical neuroimaging analyses of auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) recorded while participants completed a near-threshold task requiring spatial discrimination of left-right and right-left sound sequences. Results: AEPs to sound pairs modulated topographically as a function of aTOJ accuracy over the 39-77ms post-stimulus period, indicating the engagement of distinct configurations of brain networks during early auditory processing stages. Source estimations revealed that accurate and inaccurate performance were linked to bilateral posterior sylvian regions activity (PSR). However, activity within left, but not right, PSR predicted behavioral performance suggesting that left PSR activity during early encoding phases of pairs of auditory spatial stimuli appears critical for the perception of their order of occurrence. Correlation analyses of source estimations further revealed that activity between left and right PSR was significantly correlated in the inaccurate but not accurate condition, indicating that aTOJ accuracy depends on the functional de-coupling between homotopic PSR areas. Conclusions: These results support a model of temporal order processing wherein behaviorally relevant temporal information - i.e. a temporal 'stamp'- is extracted within the early stages of cortical processes within left PSR but critically modulated by inputs from right PSR. We discuss our results with regard to current models of temporal of temporal order processing, namely gating and latency mechanisms.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

A genealogical conceptual model using ontologies

Roughly fifteen years ago, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints published a new proposed standard file format. They call it GEDCOM. It was designed to allow different genealogy programs to exchange data.Five years later, in may 2000, appeared the GENTECH Data Modeling Project, with the support of the Federation of Genealogical Societies (FGS) and other American genealogical societies. They attempted to define a genealogical logic data model to facilitate data exchange between different genealogical programs. Although genealogists deal with an enormous variety of data sources, one of the central concepts of this data model was that all genealogical data could be broken down into a series of short, formal genealogical statements. It was something more versatile than only export/import data records on a predefined fields. This project was finally absorbed in 2004 by the National Genealogical Society (NGS).Despite being a genealogical reference in many applications, these models have serious drawbacks to adapt to different cultural and social environments. At the present time we have no formal proposal for a recognized standard to represent the family domain.Here we propose an alternative conceptual model, largely inherited from aforementioned models. The design is intended to overcome their limitations. However, its major innovation lies in applying the ontological paradigm when modeling statements and entities.