A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

Mining temporal and spatial travel regularities for transit planning

Smart Card data from Automated Fare Collection system has been considered as a promising source of information for transit planning. However, literature has been limited to mining travel patterns from transit users and suggesting the potential of using this information. This paper proposes a method for mining spatial regular origins-destinations and temporal habitual travelling time from transit users. These travel regularity are discussed as being useful for transit planning. After reconstructing the travel itineraries, three levels of Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (DBSCAN) have been utilised to retrieve travel regularity of each of each frequent transit users. Analyses of passenger classifications and personal travel time variability estimation are performed as the examples of using travel regularity in transit planning. The methodology introduced in this paper is of interest for transit authorities in planning and managements

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Agreement between temporal and spatial gait parameters from an instrumented walkway and treadmill system at matched walking speed

Background Commercially available instrumented treadmill systems that provide continuous measures of temporospatial gait parameters have recently become available for clinical gait analysis. This study evaluated the level of agreement between temporospatial gait parameters derived from a new instrumented treadmill, which incorporated a capacitance-based pressure array, with those measured by a conventional instrumented walkway (criterion standard). Methods Temporospatial gait parameters were estimated from 39 healthy adults while walking over an instrumented walkway (GAITRite®) and instrumented treadmill system (Zebris) at matched speed. Differences in temporospatial parameters derived from the two systems were evaluated using repeated measures ANOVA models. Pearson-product-moment correlations were used to investigate relationships between variables measured by each system. Agreement was assessed by calculating the bias and 95% limits of agreement. Results All temporospatial parameters measured via the instrumented walkway were significantly different from those obtained from the instrumented treadmill (P < .01). Temporospatial parameters derived from the two systems were highly correlated (r, 0.79–0.95). The 95% limits of agreement for temporal parameters were typically less than ±2% of gait cycle duration. However, 95% limits of agreement for spatial measures were as much as ±5 cm. Conclusions Differences in temporospatial parameters between systems were small but statistically significant and of similar magnitude to changes reported between shod and unshod gait in healthy young adults. Temporospatial parameters derived from an instrumented treadmill, therefore, are not representative of those obtained from an instrumented walkway and should not be interpreted with reference to literature on overground walking.

Taguchi optimized synthesis of graphene films by copper catalyzed ethanol decomposition

Taguchi method is for the first time applied to optimize the synthesis of graphene films by copper-catalyzed decomposition of ethanol. In order to find the most appropriate experimental conditions for the realization of thin high-grade films, six experiments suitably designed and performed. The influence of temperature (1000–1070 °C) and synthesis duration (1–30 min) and hydrogen flow (0–100 sccm) on the number of graphene layers and defect density in the graphitic lattice was ranked by monitoring the intensity of the 2D- and D-bands relative to the G-band in the Raman spectra. After critical examination and adjusting of the conditions predicted to give optimal results, a continuous film consisting of 2–4 nearly defect-free graphene layers was obtained.

Market turbulence, temporal orientation and firm performance

This study investigates the role of environmental dynamics (i.e., market turbulence) as a factor influencing an organisation’s top management temporal orientation, and the impact of temporal orientation on innovative and financial performance. Results show that firm’s operating in highly turbulent markets exhibit higher degrees of future orientation, as opposed to present orientation. Future-oriented (rather than present-oriented) firms also experience higher levels of both incremental and radical innovations, which in turn generate financial performance. The study highlights the important role of shared strategic mindset (which is contextually influenced) as a driving factor behind the firm innovative and financial performance.

Rice ragged stunt oryzavirus genome segment S4 could encode an RNA dependent RNA polymerase and a second protein of unknown function

The complete nucleotide sequence of genome segment S4 of rice ragged stunt oryzavirus (RRSV, Thai-isolate) was determined. The 3823 bp sequence contains two large open reading frames (ORFs). ORF1, spanning nucleotides 12 to 3776, is capable of encoding a protein of M(r) 141,380 (P4a). The P4a amino acid sequence predicted from the nucleotide sequence contains sequence motifs conserved in RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RDRPs). When compared for evolutionary relationships with RDRPs of other reoviruses using the amino acid sequences around the conserved GDD motif, P4a was shown to be more related to Nilaparvata lugens reovirus and reovirus serotype 3 than to rice dwarf phytoreovirus, bovine rotavirus or bluetongue virus. The ORF2, spanning nucleotides 491 to 1468, is out of frame with ORF1 and is capable of encoding a protein of 36, 920 (P4b). Coupled in vitro transcription-translation from cloned ORF2 in wheat germ extract confirmed the existence of ORF2 but in vivo production and possible function of P4b is yet to be determined.

The M(r) 43K major capsid protein of rice ragged stunt oryzavirus is a post-translationally processed product of a M(r) 67 348 polypeptide encoded by genome segment 8

The nucleotide sequence of DNA complementary to rice ragged stunt oryzavirus (RRSV) genome segment 8 (S8) of an isolate from Thailand was determined. RRSV S8 is 1 914 bp in size and contains a single large open reading frame (ORF) spanning nucleotides 23 to 1 810 which is capable of encoding a protein of M(r) 67 348. The N-terminal amino acid sequence of a ~43K virion polypeptide matched to that inferred for an internal region of the S8 coding sequence. These data suggest that the 43K protein is encoded by S8 and is derived by a proteolytic cleavage. Predicted polypeptide sizes from this possible cleavage of S8 protein are 26K and 42K. Polyclonal antibodies raised against a maltose binding protein (MBP)-S8 fusion polypeptide (expressed in Escherichia coli) recognised four RRSV particle associated polypeptides of M(r) 67K, 46K, 43K and 26K and all except the 26K polypeptide were also highly immunoreactive to polyclonal antibodies raised against purified RRSV particles. Cleavage of the MBP-S8 fusion polypeptide with protease Factor X produced the expected 40K MBP and two polypeptides of apparent M(r) 46K and 26K. Antibodies to purified RRSV particles reacted strongly with the intact fusion protein and the 46K cleavage product but weakly to the 26K product. Furthermore, in vitro transcription and translation of the S8 coding region revealed a post-translational self cleavage of the 67K polypeptide to 46K and 26K products. These data indicate that S8 encodes a structural polypeptide, the majority of which is auto- catalytically cleaved to 26K and 46K proteins. The data also suggest that the 26K protein is the self cleaving protease and that the 46K product is further processed or undergoes stable conformational changes to a ~43K major capsid protein.

Genome segment 5 of rice ragged stunt virus encodes a virion protein

The complete nucleotide sequence of the genome segment 5 (S5) of a Thai isolate of rice ragged stunt virus (RRSV) was determined. The 2682 nucleotide sequence contains a single long open reading frame capable of encoding a polypeptide with a molecular mass of ~91 kDa. Polypeptides encoded by various truncated cDNAs of S5 were expressed using the pGEX fusion protein vector and the highest level of fusion protein was obtained from a construct encoding a hydrophilic region of S5 protein. Antibodies raised against this fusion protein recognized a minor polypeptide, with a molecular mass of ~ 91 kDa, that was present in purified preparations of RRSV particles, infected insect vectors and infected rice plants. This indicates that RRSV S5 encodes a minor structural protein. Comparing the RRSV S5 sequence with sequences of other reo-viruses did not reveal any significant sequence similarities.

Influence of kaolinite/carbon black hybridization on combustion and thermal decomposition behaviors of NR composites

A series of NR composites filled with modified kaolinite (MK), carbon black (CB) and the hybrid fillercontained MK and CB, were prepared by melt blending. The microstructure, combustion and thermaldecomposition behaviors of NR composites were characterized by TEM, XRD, infrared spectroscopy, conecalorimeter test (CCT) and thermal-gravimetric analysis (TG). The results show that the filler hybridizationcan improve the dispensability and shape of the kaolinite sheets in the rubber matrix and change theinterface bond between kaolinite particles and rubber molecules. NR-3 filled by 10 phr MK and 40 phr CBhas the lowest heat release rate (HRR), mass loss rate (MLR), total heat release (THR), smoke productionrate (SPR) and the highest char residue among all the NR composites. Therefore, the hybridization ofthe carbon black particles with the kaolinite particles can effectively improve the thermal stability andcombustion properties of NR composites.

Putative full-length clones of the genomic DNA segments of subterranean clover stunt virus and identification of the segment coding for the viral coat protein

Subterranean clover stunt disease is an economically important aphid-borne virus disease affecting certain pasture and grain legumes in Australia. The virus associated with the disease, subterranean clover stunt virus (SCSV), was previously found to be representative of a new type of single-stranded DNA virus. Analysis of the virion DNA and restriction mapping of double-stranded cDNA synthesized from virion DNA suggested that SCSV has a segmented genome composed of 3 or 4 different species of circular ssDNA each of about 850-880 nucleotides. To further investigate the complexity of the SCSV genome, we have isolated the replicative form DNA from infected pea and from it prepared putative full-length clones representing the SCSV genome segments. Analysis of these clones by restriction mapping indicated that clones representing at least 4 distinct genomic segments were obtained. This method is thus suitable for generating an extensive genomic library of novel ssDNA viruses containing multiple genome segments such as SCSV and banana bunchy top virus. The N-terminal amino acid sequence and amino acid composition of the coat protein of SCSV were determined. Comparison of the amino acid sequence with partial DNA sequence data, and the distinctly different restriction maps obtained for the full-length clones suggested that only one of these clones contained the coat protein gene. The results confirmed that SCSV has a functionally divided genome composed of several distinct ssDNA circles each of about 1 kb.