Interrogating statistical models of music perception

We have developed a new experimental method for interrogating statistical theories of music perception by implementing these theories as generative music algorithms. We call this method Generation in Context. This method differs from most experimental techniques in music perception in that it incorporates aesthetic judgments. Generation In Context is designed to measure percepts for which the musical context is suspected to play an important role. In particular the method is suitable for the study of perceptual parameters which are temporally dynamic. We outline a use of this approach to investigate David Temperley’s (2007) probabilistic melody model, and provide some provisional insights as to what is revealed about the model. We suggest that Temperley’s model could be improved by dynamically modulating the probability distributions according to the changing musical context.

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during web searching

As Web searching becomes more prolific for information access worldwide, we need to better understand users’ Web searching behaviour and develop better models of their interaction with Web search systems. Web search modelling is a significant and important area of Web research. Searching on the Web is an integral element of information behaviour and human–computer interaction. Web searching includes multitasking processes, the allocation of cognitive resources among several tasks, and shifts in cognitive, problem and knowledge states. In addition to multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts are also important, but are under-explored aspects of Web searching. During the Web searching process, beyond physical actions, users experience various cognitive activities. Interactive Web searching involves many users’ cognitive shifts at different information behaviour levels. Cognitive coordination allows users to trade off the dependences among multiple information tasks and the resources available. Much research has been conducted into Web searching. However, few studies have modelled the nature of and relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts in the Web search context. Modelling how Web users interact with Web search systems is vital for the development of more effective Web IR systems. This study aims to model the relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. A preliminary theoretical model is presented based on previous studies. The research is designed to validate the preliminary model. Forty-two study participants were involved in the empirical study. A combination of data collection instruments, including pre- and post-questionnaires, think-aloud protocols, search logs, observations and interviews were employed to obtain users’ comprehensive data during Web search interactions. Based on the grounded theory approach, qualitative analysis methods including content analysis and verbal protocol analysis were used to analyse the data. The findings were inferred through an analysis of questionnaires, a transcription of think-aloud protocols, the Web search logs, and notes on observations and interviews. Five key findings emerged. (1) Multitasking during Web searching was demonstrated as a two-dimensional behaviour. The first dimension was represented as multiple information problems searching by task switching. Users’ Web searching behaviour was a process of multiple tasks switching, that is, from searching on one information problem to searching another. The second dimension of multitasking behaviour was represented as an information problem searching within multiple Web search sessions. Users usually conducted Web searching on a complex information problem by submitting multiple queries, using several Web search systems and opening multiple windows/tabs. (2) Cognitive shifts were the brain’s internal response to external stimuli. Cognitive shifts were found as an essential element of searching interactions and users’ Web searching behaviour. The study revealed two kinds of cognitive shifts. The first kind, the holistic shift, included users’ perception on the information problem and overall information evaluation before and after Web searching. The second kind, the state shift, reflected users’ changes in focus between the different cognitive states during the course of Web searching. Cognitive states included users’ focus on the states of topic, strategy, evaluation, view and overview. (3) Three levels of cognitive coordination behaviour were identified: the information task coordination level, the coordination mechanism level, and the strategy coordination level. The three levels of cognitive coordination behaviour interplayed to support multiple information tasks switching. (4) An important relationship existed between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. Cognitive coordination as a management mechanism bound together other cognitive processes, including multitasking and cognitive shifts, in order to move through users’ Web searching process. (5) Web search interaction was shown to be a multitasking process which included information problems ordering, task switching and task and mental coordinating; also, at a deeper level, cognitive shifts took place. Cognitive coordination was the hinge behaviour linking multitasking and cognitive shifts. Without cognitive coordination, neither multitasking Web searching behaviour nor the complicated mental process of cognitive shifting could occur. The preliminary model was revisited with these empirical findings. A revised theoretical model (MCC Model) was built to illustrate the relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. Implications and limitations of the study are also discussed, along with future research work.

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.