Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

A comparison of variational and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference in partially observed stochastic dynamic systems

In recent work we have developed a novel variational inference method for partially observed systems governed by stochastic differential equations. In this paper we provide a comparison of the Variational Gaussian Process Smoother with an exact solution computed using a Hybrid Monte Carlo approach to path sampling, applied to a stochastic double well potential model. It is demonstrated that the variational smoother provides us a very accurate estimate of mean path while conditional variance is slightly underestimated. We conclude with some remarks as to the advantages and disadvantages of the variational smoother. © 2008 Springer Science + Business Media LLC.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Some aspects of the solution of non-linear differential equations

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Solving Differential Equations by Parallel Laplace Method with Assured Accuracy

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006

A Computer Algebra Application to Determination of Lie Symmetries of Partial Differential Equations

The paper has been presented at the 12th International Conference on Applications of Computer Algebra, Varna, Bulgaria, June, 2006

Differential Equations in Abstract Cones

We extend the method of quasilinearization to differential equations in abstract normal cones. Under some assumptions, corresponding monotone iterations converge to the unique solution of our problem and this convergence is superlinear or semi–superlinear

Boundary-Value Problems for almost Nonlinear Singularly Perturbed Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

A boundary-value problems for almost nonlinear singularly perturbed systems of ordinary differential equations are considered. An asymptotic solution is constructed under some assumption and using boundary functions and generalized inverse matrix and projectors.

Integral Manifolds and Bounded Solutions of Singularly Perturbed Systems of Impulsive Differential Equations

Sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded solutions of singularly perturbed impulsive differential equations are obtained. For this purpose integral manifolds are used.

Oscillation Theorems for Perturbed Second Order Nonlinear Differential Equations with Damping

Some oscillation criteria for solutions of a general perturbed second order ordinary differential equation with damping (r(t)x′ (t))′ + h(t)f (x)x′ (t) + ψ(t, x) = H(t, x(t), x′ (t)) with alternating coefficients are given. The results obtained improve and extend some existing results in the literature.

Extremal Solutions for a Class of Functional Differential Equations

We study, in Carathéodory assumptions, existence, continuation and continuous dependence of extremal solutions for an abstract and rather general class of hereditary differential equations. By some examples we prove that, unlike the nonfunctional case, solved Cauchy problems for hereditary differential equations may not have local extremal solutions.

Oscillation Theorems for Second Order Sublinear Ordinary Differential Equations

Oscillation criteria are given for the second order sublinear non-autonomous differential equation. (r(t) (x)x′(t))′ + q(t)g(x(t)) = (t). These criteria extends and improves earlier oscillation criteria of Kamenev, Kura, Philos and Wong. Oscillation criteria are also given for second order sublinear damped non-autonomous differential equations.

Application of Lyapunov's Direct Method to the Existence of Integral Manifolds of Impulsive Differential Equations

The present paper investigates the existence of integral manifolds for impulsive differential equations with variable perturbations. By means of piecewise continuous functions which are generalizations of the classical Lyapunov’s functions, sufficient conditions for the existence of integral manifolds of such equations are found.

Integral Manifolds and Perturbations of the Nonlinear Part of Systems of Autonomous Differential Equations with Impulses at Fixed Moments

* This investigation was supported by the Bulgarian Ministry of Science and Education under Grant MM-7.